2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Yikes. If anyone of us knows what the twins are thinking it would be you Jeremy but I hope you are wrong. Weaver just doesn't have top 5 level tools. Weaver isn't even in my personal top 15.

 

I'd probably have him in the high teens myself. So five would be early, yes. But he's been impressive so far and his stock is definitely going up. A stock that was already higher for the Twins than most.

 

Personally, I think we're squeezing the really good, but not elite college pitchers just because this draft is shaping up to be so deep. Guys like Weaver and Nola (for example) are guys that may end up not being Top 10 picks this year, but would be in almost every other year.

 

Of course, it's a lloooonnnngggg way until June.

[Dman]

I think I would put Nova ahead of Weaver right now.

 

If it does go Rodon/Kolek/Hoffman/Beede, then I would prefer one of the top high school players (Gatewood, Aiken, et al) over Nova or Weaver. If Aiken really is hitting the mid-90s consistently, I think he would be a great choice at #5.

 

Yeah I am an Aiken fan too. Granted he has to show he has the stuff to go there but I really like his upside. A young big power lefty would be nice to have. Lots of good choices at 5 though. Will be interesting what the Twins do there.

[cmb0252]

Yeah I am an Aiken fan too. Granted he has to show he has the stuff to go there but I really like his upside. A young big power lefty would be nice to have. Lots of good choices at 5 though. Will be interesting what the Twins do there.

 

Keith Law mentioned Aiken in his Alex Jackson article today. He is going to see him next week but he has had scouts say he should be in the mix for the top 5 picks. I would love another big time lefty prospect to go with Thorpe and Gonsalves.

[InfraRen]

Hopefully the 2014 Luke Weaver "steam" is the same as the the 2013 "steam" on Reese McGuire. Makes me feel just about as ishy.

[markos]

Add another name to the list of players to follow closely: Brady Aiken.

 

Okay, most of us have been following Aiken already, but he is starting to generate some serious hype. Keith Law saw him yesterday, and posted a write-up today. Here is the money quote:

 

Between this spring and last summer I've seen all of the top prospects for this year's draft, including Carlos Rodon, Tyler Beede, Jeff Hoffman, Alex Jackson, Tyler Kolek, and Jacob Gatewood, and I'd take Aiken over all of them.

 

So far, this is shaping up perfectly for the Twins. There appears to be a lot of good players (especially pitchers) available. Not a bad year to be drafting 5th.

[tobi0040]

Well, I think that means the Astros take Rodon #1. Kolek to the Marlins. I'm not sure the White Sox would pass on Beede but if they do, then I think they'd take Hoffman and that would leave the Twins with the pick of the best position player in the draft (college or HS). Not sure who that person will be - right now it's probably Jackson. I think, in this draft which is high on pitching talent, that's a worst case scenario.

 

It is certainly fun to talk about the draft and I have made several posts on this thread. But this report puts it into perspective to an extent. This is a few Dodger players actual scouting report. Click on "report link".

 

Highlights - Clayton Kershaw gets a comp to Dave Righetti. Says his best future off speed pitch is his slider. Said he "fits nicely in the first round" and projects him as a #2 starter.

 

Matt Kemp got a 40 on future ability to steal bases, and future power as a 55.

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/category/clayton-kershaw/

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Just did some checking on Aiken. Rumors before he was between 94-97. According to source, he's hit 97 one time and he's not morphing into that type of pitcher. Source says Aiken has up'd the ante though.

 

He goes to the same school that Gonsalves came from, so that should be worth something. At the least, this should add one more "premium" name to the top of the draft. Same source has told me before Jackson and Gatewood would be Top 10. Says Aiken will go in the 1st round. Also "Keith Law has been wrong before."

 

In the end, I don't think that Aiken is super highly regarded by the Twins just yet. Of course, the opinion of him will change a number of times in the next 80ish days.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Add another name to the list of players to follow closely: Brady Aiken.

 

Okay, most of us have been following Aiken already, but he is starting to generate some serious hype. Keith Law saw him yesterday, and posted a write-up today. Here is the money quote:

 

 

 

So far, this is shaping up perfectly for the Twins. There appears to be a lot of good players (especially pitchers) available. Not a bad year to be drafting 5th.

 

The rise of Aiken is JUST what the Twins needed. Now they just need the everyone at the top to enjoy good health and continued good performance and the Twins will land a top-of-the-rotation-caliber pitcher OR the first position player off the board. I will be very happy if the Twins find themselves with that choice.

[nicksaviking]

Just did some checking on Aiken. Rumors before he was between 94-97. According to source, he's hit 97 one time and he's not morphing into that type of pitcher. Source says Aiken has up'd the ante though.

 

He goes to the same school that Gonsalves came from, so that should be worth something. At the least, this should add one more "premium" name to the top of the draft. Same source has told me before Jackson and Gatewood would be Top 10. Says Aiken will go in the 1st round. Also "Keith Law has been wrong before."

 

In the end, I don't think that Aiken is super highly regarded by the Twins just yet. Of course, the opinion of him will change a number of times in the next 80ish days.

 

I want to see more from him too, but Deron Johnson himself scouted him last week.

[markos]

Just did some checking on Aiken. Rumors before he was between 94-97. According to source, he's hit 97 one time and he's not morphing into that type of pitcher. Source says Aiken has up'd the ante though.

 

He goes to the same school that Gonsalves came from, so that should be worth something. At the least, this should add one more "premium" name to the top of the draft. Same source has told me before Jackson and Gatewood would be Top 10. Says Aiken will go in the 1st round. Also "Keith Law has been wrong before."

 

In the end, I don't think that Aiken is super highly regarded by the Twins just yet. Of course, the opinion of him will change a number of times in the next 80ish days.

 

Thanks for providing the additional insider info. I didn't realize he went to school with Gonsalves. I wonder how well they know each other.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Thanks for providing the additional insider info. I didn't realize he went to school with Gonsalves. I wonder how well they know each other.

 

Gonsalves tweeted about Aiken throwing harder just a week or so ago. So I'd assume they got along ok.

[Vervehound]

Perhaps I misspoke, as I want upside too. And I typically like the higher velocity too.

 

He's striking out 12.9 per 9 innings so far against elite college competition. (33.2 IP, 48 SO)

 

Maybe Nola is more like a Johan Santana (only 92 MPH) but with more strikeouts. Maybe...

 

nola's velocity is up a tick this spring and he's registering lots of 94s and 95s. combine that with wicked movement and two other quality pitches and you have a stud. i love this kid and i think he'll be successful in the mlb if his arm holds up - he's not the biggest of guys.

[cmb0252]

BA article on 4 HS pitchers staring Aiken. Griffen is an interesting second round guy. Good read. Link here:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-tracker-high-school-hurlers/

[twinsin17]

Kiley McDaniel at Scout.com posted a thorough analysis of top prep prospects, highlighted with more positive words for Brady Aiken. Here is a snippet:

 

"The early word coming out of Aiken's couple short outings since that scrimmage is that he is indeed sitting a little lower, mostly 90-95 but hitting 97 mph again. His above average curveball that varied all summer with his arm speed is now plus while his changeup is still above average and he's expected to show the same above average command as the spring continues. That full package of everything above average with athleticism, a 6'3/210 frame and two plus pitches from the left side is a 2/3 starter; advanced versions of that at age 17 (Aiken will be 17.81 on draft day) never get out of the top 10."

 

As of right now it appears Aiken is moving quickly up the prospect rankings and the Twins will surely give him strong consideration come draft day considering they have spent a good deal of time scouting him the past couple years.

 

A subscription is required to read the article but it may be worth it as Kiley is well connected within the scouting community and will be posting many more articles as the draft nears.

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1385841.html

[maxisagod]

Here's the Patrick Mooney article on the Cubs targets at 4.

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/mlb-draft-cubs-identifying-targets-no-4-overall-pick

It doesn't give deep analysis, but it does give some insight into who the Cubs are looking at and who they wouldn't let fall past them. He sheds some light on why they seem to be connect to Beede so strongly and he also reminds people that it was this time last year when Gray and Bryant started to rise.

 

I'm start to think Hoffman falling to the Twins at 5 is more likely than Kolek at this point.

[cmb0252]

Christopher Crawford wrote a new article today about how Derek Fisher's injury could change the draft. Like Fisher last year Austin Wilson started as a possible top 10 guy but slipped because of injury/poor performance. Austin was selected by the DBacks with the 49th pick. Crawford suggests Mike papi, michael conforto, and a personal favorite Bradley Zimmer could pass him. Here is what one scout had to say:

 

"I think if you're looking at direct competition, Conforto and Papi are the guys that make the most sense," an AL East crosschecker said. "Zimmer had already passed Fisher to me because I think he's going to be a quality corner outfielder, something that [Fisher] was never going to become. But Conforto, Papi and Fisher all have similar skill-sets, guys who are going to make their money with the bat from the left side and you think can give you .280 seasons with 15-20 homers, maybe a little more.

 

"Obviously it'll depend on how he looks when he's back on the field, but right now I think Conforto is clearly ahead of Fisher, and it wouldn't shock me at all if Papi went ahead of him, too."

 

Crawford also goes on to identify Sean Newcomb, Matt Imhof, and Kyle Freeman as potential small school first round arms.

 

Great article with a lot of great info. Here is the insider link:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1389

[twinsin17]

If Hoffman falls and is available at 5 it will be more a result of a poor spring combined with overall rocky collegiate record and less due to the performance of others. If this is the case I'd feel much more comfortable taking a player on the rise. Here is hoping Hoffman improves his consistency the rest of the way and proves his spurts of excellence can be maintained.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Keith Law Insider piece - MLB Draft Top 50

 

Some notes: Aiken (1), Rodon (3) and Hoffman (6) have all moved based on early spring results. Weaver is at #11. Gatewood (19) and Turner (20) lower than expected. The Twins like Mac Marshall, and he's listed at 38.

[twinsin17]

How does Law view Gettys' stock? If we feel his bat will project well he could be another option. This draft seems loaded in pitching but we don't hear much about the bats with the exception of a couple near the top.

[gunnarthor]

Keith Law Insider piece - MLB Draft Top 50

 

Some notes: Aiken (1), Rodon (3) and Hoffman (6) have all moved based on early spring results. Weaver is at #11. Gatewood (19) and Turner (20) lower than expected. The Twins like Mac Marshall, and he's listed at 38.

 

Since we pick at 5, can you give us his top 5? I assume Kolek and Beede are the missing two.

 

mlbpipeline has Marshall at 34. I suppose that means he could be a guy that might slip to us in the early second round.

[maxisagod]

Since we pick at 5, can you give us his top 5? I assume Kolek and Beede are the missing two.

 

mlbpipeline has Marshall at 34. I suppose that means he could be a guy that might slip to us in the early second round.

 

1, Aiken

2, Kolek

3, Rodon

4, Beede

5, Holmes

 

Law ( or whom ever he talks to that scouts him) has never been high on Turner, that's not going to change because if Law didn't value what he brought to the table before the season, he's not going to value it now.

[markos]

How does Law view Gettys' stock? If we feel his bat will project well he could be another option. This draft seems loaded in pitching but we don't hear much about the bats with the exception of a couple near the top.

 

Gettys is ranked toward the end of the 1st round.

 

It does seem like the hitters aren't getting much love so far. I wonder how much of that has to do with needing a much larger sample size when analyzing a hit tool. It seems like it is easier to make snap judgments about pitchers, particularly with regard to velocity and "stuff". I'm guessing that the hitters will start to build some buzz after a month or two of games.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law March 21st draft question from chat:

Are there any other evaluators in the industry who are questioning Rodon at #1? - and if so, what would it take for the Astros to consider someone else there? They seem locked into Rodon - it would be quite the bold move to pick anyone else there it seems.

Klaw (1:03 PM)

I haven't found anyone - area guy, cross-checker, director - who's arguing that Rodon is worthy of 1-1 this year, and I don't think the Astros are remotely "locked into" Rodon.

 

How much does Aiken's age play into your decision to rank him number one? He is much younger than Kolek, Jackson, and Gatewood.

Klaw (1:05 PM)

It doesn't really matter for a pitcher - age is a bigger variable for position players, although I think the extent to which it matters is up for debate at this point. Byron Buxton was about 18.5 at the draft, and no one is questioning whether he was that good of a prospect.

 

I see 7 out of the top 10 prospects are high schoolers and 8 out of the top 10 are pitchers. Is this just how the distribution fell this time or is it a reflection on how you view higher upsides being more valuable than lower ceiling/surer things?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

That's the draft class this year - very pitching-heavy.

 

So Rodon has suddenly lost his stuff? What about SSS and the fact that he always improves as the season wears on?

Klaw (1:14 PM)

SSS applies to statistics. People who try to apply that to scouting looks are suffering from two simultaneous failures of comprehension. As for Rodon, he hasn't "suddenly lost his stuff;" he's not throwing as hard, his slider is down from an 80 to a 70 or 60, and his command has never been great. When your stuff is dominant, scouts will overlook the lack of height, the maintenance body, the back issues in the past. When your fastball is average, that other stuff matters more.

 

How does Aiken change the top tier? Aiken in Tier 1 and Beede, Kolek, Rodon in Tier 2?

Klaw (1:19 PM)

I'm not thinking in terms of tiers at this point. There isn't a huge dropoff between any two of the players you mentioned, however.

Is Michael Kopech a first rounder? I know his velocity has been up and down but he's been as high as 98. Good 6'3 frame and his wing span is pretty unreal(like ubaldo). Also have you checked out the new War On Drugs record? It's a great listen.

Klaw (1:23 PM)

No one seems to think he'll hold 98 - he's not as physical as the Kolek/Holmes group, and the delivery isn't as good. Kopech could certainly be a first-rounder, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went late first to end of the second.

 

Has there been any indication or talk that Rodon is injured?

Klaw (1:25 PM)

Not that I have heard. The one guy where there's injury talk is Dylan Cease - he's on the shelf right now, but it's not clear how serious the elbow issue is, so I ranked him more or less where he'd be when healthy and figured we'll let the situation sort itself out over the next few weeks.

 

How much of a concern is Grant Homes' size?

Klaw (1:26 PM)

None for me. 6'1" is tall enough, and his body is fine - he's built well enough to be durable.

 

Will the Astros and Cubs be more likely to go after college pitching to align with prospects already coming up?

Klaw (1:40 PM)

Pretty sure both will go BPA (best player available) - but for the Cubs in particular that seems like it'll almost certainly be a college arm.

 

You say teams should draft best player available but do any teams not do that?

Klaw (1:42 PM)

As a general practice, no. Those questions typically come from fans who know the NFL/NBA drafts well, but are just learning about the MLB draft, which isn't just a different species ... it might as well be in its own phylum.

 

Is Kolek just that good, or his opposition that bad, or both?

Klaw (1:43 PM)

Both.

 

Are there any top 5-10 talents in the draft that can be picked up by the manaea strategy this year? (Injured and concern about ability)

Klaw (1:50 PM)

Fisher isn't a top 5-10 talent but is probably a top 15-20 talent and is now hurt. Cease could be that kind of guy too, but the Vanderbilt commitment might trump MLB dollars.

 

I like how you suddenly like Finnegan now that he is mowing people down. I thought short pitchers were always bad?

Klaw (1:52 PM)

I like how you fabricated an explanation for the kind of rankings change that happens every year in the draft. The percentage of scouts who told me last fall they thought Finnegan was a starter was a lot lower than the percentage who tell me that now. And height matters a lot more for RHP than LHP in the draft

 

Re: the earlier discussion on Rodon, a general question (I've asked before, but didn't get answered): so how many times do you need to scout a player before you feel that you can get an accurate assessment on him? Seems like you'd want to avoid passing judgment based on what could be an off day or two, but I'm wondering what the right number of views would be. Thanks.

Klaw (2:05 PM)

Because I can't see guys as many times as an area scout would, I make a lot of phone calls, I watch video, and I try to see as many elite guys that I can. Trying to avoid exactly what you're getting at - killing a guy for one bad look.

 

For full chat here. He answers questions about Hicks/Gibson:

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50235/mlb-insider-keith-law

[cmb0252]

1, Aiken

2, Kolek

3, Rodon

4, Beede

5, Holmes

 

Law ( or whom ever he talks to that scouts him) has never been high on Turner, that's not going to change because if Law didn't value what he brought to the table before the season, he's not going to value it now.

 

8 of his top 10 prospects are pitchers so people who wanted an arm should be happy. A lot of bats are under producing but I'm excited to see Zimmer at 12. Big fan.

[cmb0252]

Jim Callis take on Rodon:

 

We put Rodon atop our Draft rankings in December, and he's still the favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Astros. After he dominated Cuba last summer while with Team USA, scouts expected Rodon to do the same vs. lesser college competition this spring. Instead, he has been good but not great: 2-3 with a 2.45 ERA through five starts, with a 42/11 K/BB ratio and a .208 opponent average in 36 2/3 innings.

Rodon's command and consistency have fluctuated, so he hasn't lived up to the better-than-David Price talk. But he's still a strong-bodied lefty with a pair of plus-plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and I still like him as much as I did before the season. There's no reason Rodon can't become a No. 1 starter in the Majors.

 

Teddy Cahill's article on a few draft prospects:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140321&content_id=69769030&notebook_id=69769032&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

Mayo's take on early draft injuries and other draft prospects:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140318&content_id=69552214&notebook_id=69553420&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

[Willihammer]

Here's a scouting question. Its becoming clear how extension is a key component of the equation time = distance / velocity,

 

where Time is a better measure of the real velocity of a pitch as perceived by the batter.

 

What are scout doing to measure extension?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I see Rodon this yeat becoming the Mark Appel of two years ago.

 

I really hope the Twins get a shot at him.

[twinsin17]

Both Beede and Rodon were shelled tonight and clearly had control problems. Nola didn't have his usual control but still picked up a W and Finnegan continued to mow 'em down:

 

[TABLE]

[TD=width: 204, bgcolor: #00008B]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]ip [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]h [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]r [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]er [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]bb [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]so [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]wp [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]bk [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]hbp [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]ibb [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]ab [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]bf [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]fo [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]go [/TD]

[TD=width: 40, bgcolor: #00008B]np [/TD]

Carlos Rodon L,2-4

4.2

6

8

0

4

8

2

0

2

0

22

28

2

3

116

Tyler Beede L,4-2

2.2

6

11

5

5

2

1

0

1

0

16

23

1

4

82

Aaron Nola W,5-0

6.2

2

0

0

4

8

0

0

1

0

20

25

8

2

117

Brandon Finnegan W,4-2

7

3

0

0

2

10

0

0

0

0

24

26

8

3

105

[/TABLE]

[Jeremy Nygaard]

It's really crazy to see Rodon pitching as not great/poor by expectation's standards as he has been. This is a kid that was nearly unhittable for two seasons. You worry that there might be an injury involved. I could certainly see him betting on himself if he drops in the draft, but at the same time, I would mortgage the rest of my draft to have a shot at him. He's not far from the majors. He might not have the ceiling that Kershaw does (or the guys in the draft that are getting that comp ceiling), but you can't dispute what he's done over the last two seasons and in his time with the National team.

 

Draft the kid. Sign the kid. Give him a break. And pray to God that you're not getting another Matt Purke.

[twinsin17]

One thing that stands out is the consistent high pitch counts for Rodon. Coming in to his junior year he already had 250 collegiate innings under his belt. With a high walk rate and a tendency to go deeper in to counts gunning for a strikeout one has to consider the impact this wear and tear is having on a young arm who relies so heavily on a slider as his out pitch. I've also read multiple places that his slider doesn't have the bite it once did. Surely teams will put him through rigorous tests but it seems plausible some at the top will shy away, especially if they value the ability to better control pitch counts for HS arms. It may be more of a sign of how strong the HS pitching class is but the old adage of a college pitcher being a safer pick over a HS arm seems to be fading.