Big Shock (Sarcasm): Tanaka to Yankees

[biggentleben]

well you are wrong about the best farm system , I believe we are ranked 5th and 7th by the 2 most ackowleged periodicals

 

Not sure where you're getting that. Baseball prospectus called the Twins "far and away" the best system in the game this offseason, and John Sickels has stated that if he made such lists, he would have the Twins at the top right now. Those are two of perhaps the three most trusted prospecting sources there are.

[biggentleben]

Baseball Prospectus does not rank. If they did, the Twins would be 1, and then a long fall to number 2. BA has not released their official list, but will undoubedly have the Twins in the top 3 (and probably #1). The team is loaded and unless your "periodicals" are the Houston Chronicle or the Chicago Tribune

 

BP's Jason Parks (who basically IS their minor league prospect department) stated this offseason in an Effectively Wild podcast that the Twins were "far and away" the best system in baseball right now in both top end talent and depth.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not sure where you're getting that. Baseball prospectus called the Twins "far and away" the best system in the game this offseason, and John Sickels has stated that if he made such lists, he would have the Twins at the top right now. Those are two of perhaps the three most trusted prospecting sources there are.

 

Which is pretty amazing when you adjust expectations for the Twins' farm system after removing Hicks, Gibson, and Arcia from "prospect" status. All three were top 100 prospects last season in most rankings.

 

Removing three top 100 prospects and remaining the consensus #1 farm system (maybe #2 on a couple of fringe lists) is quite a feat.

[johnnydakota]

I was using last falls reports, me bad, if they have changed in the off season

[johnnydakota]

This isn't college football, you can't just go out and poach the other teams top guys. In 2-3 years when Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Gibson etc are all leading this team to glory, perhaps people will be saying this same thing about the Twins brain trust. Hell, they already were saying it about the Twins when they won the division 6 times in 9 years (no small feat for ANY team)

 

We did it in the softest division in the AL, we had 2 MVPs and a CY young winner,along with 1 of the best closers. If we were in the east or the West , would we have won more then 1?

[DaveW]

We did it in the softest division in the AL, we had 2 MVPs and a CY young winner,along with 1 of the best closers. If we were in the east or the West , would we have won more then 1?

And how did the Twins acquire those MVP's, Cy Young Winner and one of the best closers?

 

Farm development, and.............shrewd trades!!! I am not sure how many they would have won in the east and I am pretty confident they would have won multiple in the west.

 

Also for as "soft" as the AL Central was...they still managed to put out some world series teams like the Tigers and White Sox.

[johnnydakota]

Which is pretty amazing when you adjust expectations for the Twins' farm system after removing Hicks, Gibson, and Arcia from "prospect" status. All three were top 100 prospects last season in most rankings.

 

Removing three top 100 prospects and remaining the consensus #1 farm system (maybe #2 on a couple of fringe lists) is quite a feat.

 

And how did those 3 work out this year?

Maybe in 2 or 3 more years we will know if they

are the real deal ,or not. Do I want them all to be All Stars?

 

Hell ya, do I want Nolasco,Hughes and Pelfrey to finish 1-3 in the Cy young voting ?

Hell ya, Do I want my team to win the WS each year ? Hell Ya ...

But if you always do ,what you have always done.

you will always get what you have always gotten....

[Mike Sixel]

I think I clearly stated that measuring success only by titles makes no sense. But maybe I didn't type that, and I imagined that.

[johnnydakota]

And how did the Twins acquire those MVP's, Cy Young Winner and one of the best closers?

 

Farm development, and.............shrewd trades!!! I am not sure how many they would have won in the east and I am pretty confident they would have won multiple in the west.

 

Also for as "soft" as the AL Central was...they still managed to put out some world series teams like the Tigers and White Sox.

 

Well I will agree with some of your post...you are pretty confident:jump:

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

How many titles have the Rangers and Tigers had the past two decades?

 

I love how the Twins make the playoffs 6 times in 9 years....yet many of you folks say "Playoffs mean nothing, its all about the titles" and yet you bring up the Tigers and Rangers (Two teams who haven't won a title anytime recently) as an example as such a much superior org then the Twins.

 

It's hard to take those people seriously at times....

 

6 times in 9 years

 

has this become the greatest achievement in modern day professional sports

 

I will cite it myself from time to time, but not as the one essential fact that can be used to trump anything I disagree with. Not claiming that's what you are doing here Dave but its just the same on the other side of the aisle, hard to take a point of view as seriously when it has the old 6 times in 9 in it.

 

I am not a Texas Rangers fan, but I would not be hanging my head if I were one. Game 6 in 2011 was unbelievable and sometimes stuff just happens.

[Boom Boom]

I know that Twins fans hate the Yankees for kicking their collective butts and inflating the cost of free agents, and that Twins fans are suspicious of imported Japanese players because of the Nishioka dumpster fire...

 

but I'm not going to declare the Tanaka deal a disaster for the Yankees at this point. How many of you have seen him pitch? Tanaka is five years younger than Garza and six years younger than Santana - how much do you think those guys will sign for?

 

Maybe it will turn out to be a terrible deal, and if I was a GM knowing what I know (which isn't a whole lot about scouting) I wouldn't make the deal. But if it is terrible, I think the Yankees will be OK.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And how did those 3 work out this year?

 

This is how prospects come to the major leagues.

 

I don't understand the stance of "Rush these prospects, I want to see them learn at the MLB level!" and after they stumble a bit and struggle to adjust to the highest level of competition, talking about how miserable a prospect they were in the first place.

 

Prospects struggle at the MLB level. It's how it works. Some guys need to go back to the minors, find their footing, and then come back with improved ability to compete.

 

A few players who struggled mightily in the first MLB experience:

 

Torii Hunter

Justin Morneau

Michael Cuddyer

Jason Kubel

Johan Santana (admittedly, he had no business being on an MLB roster but had to be on it)

Brad Radke

Cristian Guzman

 

Hey, look at that. Almost the entire core of the 2000s playoff teams needed to go back to the minors or struggled horrifically in their first MLB season.

[johnnydakota]

This is how prospects come to the major leagues.

 

I don't understand the stance of "Rush these prospects, I want to see them learn at the MLB level!" and after they stumble a bit and struggle to adjust to the highest level of competition, talking about how miserable a prospect they were in the first place.

 

Prospects struggle at the MLB level. It's how it works. Some guys need to go back to the minors, find their footing, and then come back with improved ability to compete.

 

A few players who struggled mightily in the first MLB experience:

 

Torii Hunter

Justin Morneau

Michael Cuddyer

Jason Kubel

Johan Santana (admittedly, he had no business being on an MLB roster but had to be on it)

Brad Radke

Cristian Guzman

 

Hey, look at that. Almost the entire core of the 2000s playoff teams needed to go back to the minors or struggled horrifically in their first MLB season.

 

 

So then we agree, in 2 or 3 years we will know how they turn out?

[thetank]

I don't think the Rules need to be changed at all. The Yankees have won one title in the last 13 years, during that time the teams to win multiple ones are the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have all won multiple world series, I am not sure anyone would claim they have some huge advantage when it comes to payroll (Red Sox...ok...maybe, but for the most part those teams were built from within and shrewdly)

 

In fact, as much as I hate the Cards, they are a premier example on how to build a team: Build GREAT in house talent, continue to replenish the farm, and make some smart plays on the FA market (and realize when its time to let people go- Like Pujols, Beltran etc)

The Cards payroll actually is dropping a little from last year. They have seven starting pitchers vying for 5 spots. And the closer could likely by a starter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So then we agree, in 2 or 3 years we will know how they turn out?

 

Yeah, but you have to let the kids play... You can't fill up the roster with free agents blocking them from getting the required MLB experience to succeed.

 

Which is why I think Drew is the only viable FA for the Twins left on the market... But even he has some pretty ugly warts and isn't a perfect fit. I think he's a decent gamble but I can also see why others don't feel the same.

 

As for Tanaka, I'm firing from the hip here but I'm almost positive this statement is true:

 

No team in MLB history has won a championship with two players consuming 50% of payroll. Zero. None. Nada. Zilch. At $20m+ per season, Tanaka has all sorts of red flags surrounding him and almost no upside. Not at that price.

 

The Twins won't win with one 5 win player being paid $20m+ a season... They already have that in Joe Mauer. They need a bunch of 2-3 win players before they're competitive again.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, if you increase your payroll enough, you wouldn't have 2 people earning 50%, but not even I am asking for a payroll over $125......

[tobi0040]

Yeah, but you have to let the kids play... You can't fill up the roster with free agents blocking them from getting the required MLB experience to succeed.

 

Which is why I think Drew is the only viable FA for the Twins left on the market... But even he has some pretty ugly warts and isn't a perfect fit. I think he's a decent gamble but I can also see why others don't feel the same.

 

As for Tanaka, I'm firing from the hip here but I'm almost positive this statement is true:

 

No team in MLB history has won a championship with two players consuming 50% of payroll. Zero. None. Nada. Zilch. At $20m+ per season, Tanaka has all sorts of red flags surrounding him and almost no upside. Not at that price.

 

The Twins won't win with one 5 win player being paid $20m+ a season... They already have that in Joe Mauer. They need a bunch of 2-3 win players before they're competitive again.

 

In reading the theme from posts covering different topics, a majority of the people on here don't seem to be advocating signing a $20M+ player, or giving Tanaka the deal the Yankees gave him.

 

What I see are fans that are frustrated that our payroll will end up where was last year when we fielded our third straight 95 loss season.

 

Most realize that we are not going to sign a 3B or CF, for obvious reasons. But that we could use Drew, potentially a DH, and maybe another starter. I don't see anyone asking for the moon. Just a payroll somewhere in between where it was last year ($84M) and the 52% of revenue mark that MLB recommends which would be in the neighborhood of $115M.

[BigTrane]

I don't understand the stance of "Rush these prospects, I want to see them learn at the MLB level!"...

 

Excellent point, absolutely agree. As far as I can tell, that's what happened to Gilmartin, so dumping Doumit for him + (likely/hopefully) a year at AAA = shrewd trade and a good chance for a rebound & future success in the Bigs. That's a potentially great move.

 

On the other hand, the impatience among the faithful is absolutely understandable.

 

My takeaway from Tanakagate is twofold:

 

1) Yanquis see, Yanquis buy. Thank god we're not them. Let them eat cake.

2) My big concern is that the traditional Twins skittishness with FAs has penetrated to the core and brought about an instinctive reluctance to lock up guys who have worked their way through the system and stand to cash in as they approach FA, a la Hunter and Santana. People are STILL complaining about locking up Mauer... I don't get it.

 

We are all pinning our hopes on Sano, Buxton, Meyer, etc. The clubs' future depends on how they pan out, and if they do pan out the way we hope- do you want to see them walk?

 

Sometimes it seems the Twins are the 'gift that keeps on giving' to MLB because we do all the hard work of drafting & developing talent just to kiss 'em goodbye when they prove themselves at that level. I'm more sick about that than our ritual hiding by the Yanqs.

 

There ARE times when you have to pull the trigger and commit big.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We are all pinning our hopes on Sano, Buxton, Meyer, etc. The clubs' future depends on how they pan out, and if they do pan out the way we hope- do you want to see them walk?

 

Sometimes it seems the Twins are the 'gift that keeps on giving' to MLB because we do all the hard work of drafting & developing talent just to kiss 'em goodbye when they prove themselves at that level. I'm more sick about that than our ritual hiding by the Yanqs.

 

There ARE times when you have to pull the trigger and commit big.

 

The Twins have not lost a major free agent they wanted to retain since coming to Target Field.

 

In fact, the Twins have retained most of the free agents they wanted to keep during their Metrodome years, too. Hunter and Santana were the two big losses but are more than offset by the retention of guys like Radke, Morneau, and Mauer.

 

The Twins are not, and never have been, the Oakland Athletics or Tampa Bay Rays. Those teams struggle to retain any of their free agents. That's not a problem the Twins have faced in the past 15 years. The Twins can't keep all of their free agents, sure... But they don't lose virtually every one like the A's and Rays have over the years.

[TheLeviathan]

Most realize that we are not going to sign a 3B or CF, for obvious reasons. But that we could use Drew, potentially a DH, and maybe another starter. I don't see anyone asking for the moon. Just a payroll somewhere in between where it was last year ($84M) and the 52% of revenue mark that MLB recommends which would be in the neighborhood of $115M.

 

While this is reasonable, the problem with those wanting more signings is that they ignore the fact that there may be reasons other than payroll not to add these players. A whole host of reasons really. That's the disconnect.

[BigTrane]

Point taken, but the FAs I mentioned were PRE Target Field.

 

Did I say any or all? Do you like the retention rate of proven players?

Is there a link between FA signings and and soon-to-be-FAs signings, or not?

[BigTrane]

The Twins have not lost a major free agent they wanted to retain since coming to Target Field., etc.

 

Point taken, but the FAs I mentioned were PRE Target Field.

 

Did I say any or all? Do you like the retention rate of proven players?

Is there a link between FA signings and and soon-to-be-FAs signings, or not?

[tobi0040]

While this is reasonable, the problem with those wanting more signings is that they ignore the fact that there may be reasons other than payroll not to add these players. A whole host of reasons really. That's the disconnect.

 

I don't buy this. The only real reason other than payroll is the second round pick. Since 1990, we have had exactly five players who were drafted in the second round see significant time in the big leagues for us (Baker, Slowey, Crain, Jacque, and Swarzak).

 

Nobody can argue we have much of anything in the pipeline or that Drew is not better than Florimon. This is primarily a financial decision.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg

[TheLeviathan]

Nobody can argue we have much of anything in the pipeline or that Drew is not better than Florimon. This is primarily a financial decision.

 

Drew also has a history of injuries and at least one team that was happy to be rid of him. He's also about to enter the downside of his career trend.

 

The more I've thought about 4/48, a draft pick, and his profile - the less I think of it as a no-brainer and the more I can see arguments against bringing him in. He's just not good enough and reliable enough to warrant bringing in.

 

If he wants a one or two year deal? Alright, then I'm in on this being only payroll, but at his current asking price his profile has lots of red flags.

[Twins Twerp]

The NFL has by far the best system with revenue sharing and a hard salary cap. Hopefully after Bud leaves next season, some 20th century ideas will be established in baseball that make the game more watchable. I struggle to watch games where the Yankees infield (in the past) has made more money than the bottom 4 teams in the AL Central. Every few years I get more and more disgusted with Major League Baseball. Why should the small market teams have to tear it down and be "shrewd" with signings, when the Yankees can make mistake after mistake and never rebuild. They spent almost half a billion dollars this year...if it doesn't work, they will spend half a billion next year.

 

Teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees need to held accountable for their uber-mistakes, and a hard cap would do that. Perhaps then, MLB would be able to compete with the NBA and NFL.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Drew also has a history of injuries and at least one team that was happy to be rid of him. He's also about to enter the downside of his career trend.

 

The more I've thought about 4/48, a draft pick, and his profile - the less I think of it as a no-brainer and the more I can see arguments against bringing him in. He's just not good enough and reliable enough to warrant bringing in.

 

If he wants a one or two year deal? Alright, then I'm in on this being only payroll, but at his current asking price his profile has lots of red flags.

 

For me, the ceiling on Drew is 3/$36m. I wouldn't consider him at a nickel above that price and I'm not sure I would even sign him at that price.

 

But if the price drops to 3/$30m or under, I'd strongly consider him at that point.

[TheLeviathan]

Perhaps then, MLB would be able to compete with the NBA and NFL. F#$% the Yankee Pigs.

 

Um, just how on earth do you think the NBA is somehow kicking MLB's butt?

 

A cap would be nice at some point - you know what would be better? Sharing media revenues. I get the arguments why they should stay separate, but that difference is by the biggest factor driving financial resources.

[TheLeviathan]

For me, the ceiling on Drew is 3/$36m. I wouldn't consider him at a nickel above that price and I'm not sure I would even sign him at that price.

 

But if the price drops to 3/$30m or under, I'd strongly consider him at that point.

 

I would too, but I'd much rather limit the years. The dollar amount per year I don't care about as much as I do giving that many years to a character with lots of red flags.

 

Statistically there is plenty to worry about him translating last year's success somewhere else as well. I wouldn't get my pitchfork and torch out if they signed him.....but I'm also in no rush to if he goes somewhere else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would too, but I'd much rather limit the years. The dollar amount per year I don't care about as much as I do giving that many years to a character with lots of red flags.

 

Absolutely. I only used three years because that's what I think it will take to get him. If he's on board for two years, I'd give him more per year, definitely.

 

Statistically there is plenty to worry about him translating last year's success somewhere else as well. I wouldn't get my pitchfork and torch out if they signed him.....but I'm also in no rush to if he goes somewhere else.

 

Well, it depends... If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of injuries and/or dropoff, then that's definitely a consideration. If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of Fenway Park, that shouldn't be an issue... Drew had almost zero opposite field power last season which means that Fenway was a burden to him, not a boon.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, it depends... If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of injuries and/or dropoff, then that's definitely a consideration. If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of Fenway Park, that shouldn't be an issue... Drew had almost zero opposite field power last season which means that Fenway was a burden to him, not a boon.

 

Check his splits. It didn't help his power - but it sure as hell helped everything else. To the tune or roughly .200 OPS points.