Twins Minor League Breakout Candidates

[Shane Wahl]

Niko Goodrum

J.D. Williams

Max Kepler

 

Gonsalves

Baxendale

Duffey

Melotakis

[Seth Stohs]

Great thread but a difficult one. I love to follow the Twins minors but simply don't have the knowledge of Seth and Jeremy and others. However....

 

doc, the nice thing about this type of thread is that there are no right or wrong answers, just guesses and fun discussion. There are a lot of great names and talents that could take off.

[Shane Wahl]

I guess I should limit it to two apiece. Since JD Williams is most likely to have a good season at Fort Myers and already has had two very strong seasons, I will go with Goodrum and Kepler who are due to emerge and have breakout years now.

 

Pitching-wise, Gonsalves is an obvious pick, so I think I will go with D.J. Baxendale and Mason Melotakis, who with good seasons at AA and A+, respectively, will qualify as breakout seasons because they could also be predicted as soon in over their heads.

[Major League Ready]

doc, the nice thing about this type of thread is that there are no right or wrong answers, just guesses and fun discussion. There are a lot of great names and talents that could take off.

 

Yes, that's part of the fun of following the minor league affiliates. It is particularily interesting following the Twins system right now because of the quality and depth. This is a big year IMO with so much potential in the lower part of the system. A big year throughout the system, especially top prospects, would bode well for our chances to build a true contender in the near future.

[gunnarthor]

If, by breakout, you mean a guy who could jump into the top 100 nationally a year from now, I'd say Thorpe and Kepler.

 

If we're thinking more guys that we'll be a lot more excited about (like Thorpe now or Kepler a year ago), I'd go with Eades (massively underrated by Twins fans) and Minier.

[DocBauer]

doc, the nice thing about this type of thread is that there are no right or wrong answers, just guesses and fun discussion. There are a lot of great names and talents that could take off.

 

I agree whole-heartedly

 

Jim brings up some really good pitchers I didn't even mention, as did Shane. That is what is so great about the depth of our system right now. Including the likes of Hicks and Vargas, Walker and others.

 

One guy I deliberately didn't mention is Polanco. That was due to the fact I feel he's already broken out, to a certain degree. But I have a general question to all of you concerning him. What is his ceiling potential? I feel he is a bit of an enigma at this point despite what he has shown.

 

He was signed as a great fielding SS with some speed and athleticism. And he's begun to show some really great potential. But it seems he's been playing more 2B than SS. And I've read reports where maybe his arm isn't the strongest. Is his time at 2B due to Goodrum? Or is he really not a great SS prospect?

 

Being a great SS is just just arm strength, though it helps. It's also about range, glove work, getting rid of the ball quickly and accurately. Any thought here guys?

[roger]

Great topic Seth,

 

My first choice will be Thorpe, who I believe will begin in EST before joining Cedar Rapids in late April/May 1. There is a small chance he moves up to Fort Myers for the last month of the season. Yes, he will be only 18 years old...but he just turned 18 last week and will be pitching to A+, AA and some AAA guys all winter down under.

 

My second pitcher is D. J. Baxendale, who has a chance to become what he was at A+ last year at AA this summer. If he does, a late season promotion to AAA could be in the cards.

 

My third pitcher is Matt Summers. Look for the Twins to return Matt to the bullpen where he will be lights out with a season as good as any of the top bullpen prospects in the organization.

 

As for position players, my leading candidate will be Jorge Polanco. Don't know if he really qualifies as the last two years were very good. Anyway, I expect him to have another bigger year at Fort Myers in 2014.

 

I look for a big year also from middle infielder Aderlin Mejia, who was awfully good at Fort Myers in 2013. Look for him to continue hitting for a high average as he moves from the Miracle to New Britain.

 

My final player to have a break-out year is Minnetonka's own A. J. Pettersen. After battling through his wrist injury last year, A.J. will report to spring training healthy and ready to prove he has a future with the Twins. Look for him to return to New Britain as he moves up the ladder as a valuable utility player.

[twinsin17]

Aaron Slegers is my breakout candidate. We picked him in the 5th round last year after he missed nearly his entire Freshman and Sophomore years before pitching a full season in 2013 at Indiana. If the forearm ailment that caused him to miss time as a prep and in college stays in the past then there is a lot to like about his future prospects. His arm has low miles and at 6'10" he has a distinct advantage vs hitters. Slegers has limited pitching experience so it will serve him well to start at Elizabethton where the short season will allow more time to work with coaches in extended minor league camp this spring. Look for the Twins to get him a spot in the rotation after he made 9 relief appearances at Elizabethton last summer.

[shs_59]

Guys i Like as Breakouts

 

Pitchers:

1) Austin Malinowski = Turns into a stud left-handed reliever by end of year for Cedar Rapids/ Ft. Myers.

2) Miguel Sulbaran = Probably a better all-around pitching prospect to Jose Berrios, (for now) and benefits from being a southpaw....might get all the way to AA, possibly just a taste of AAA.

3) J.T. Chargois = the once, top relief prospect, returns with vengence and HE, not Tonkin looks like our future closer in waiting. (although i think Tonkin will be a fine middle reliver or 7th inning secondary set-up man.)

 

other lefties : Brett Lee, Stephen Gonsalves (1 will probably go bust) hopefully the other stays healthy all year, and turns into a #3 type of starter. Love the Brian Gilbert love too from above BTW.

 

Hitters:

1) James Beresford , at some point gets a shot/ crack at Utility job for Gardy and his all-around speed/ defense combo at 2B and SS keeps him on the team into 2015. Think Pete Kozma ish.

2 ) Aaron Hicks , returns late in the year to turn into a solid Big League 3rd Outfielder, shouldn't start EVERY day, but maybe 4-5 times a week in CF.

3) Aderlin Mejia , mainly because @ Seth Stohs didn' even have him in his top 50! Although, i probably overate him severely i think he's still a bit underlooked.

 

 

 

People i think totally turn into busts:

 

Kennys Vargas, Trevor May, Kohl Stewart!?!?! , Ryan Eades , Zack Jones , Travis Harrison, Eddie Rosario (hate to say it, but) Where'd the power stroke go Eddie?

 

Still holding out some hope for Berrios and Kepler.

 

Hope I'm pleasantly suprised by: Taylor Rodgers , Niko Goodrum , Tyler Duffy , Tyler Jones, Stuart Turner, Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers. Eades too!

 

 

HOPE I"m REALLY wrong about Kohl Stewart, its just a random gut feeling, mainly about his work ethic, and hair-style and choices with girls, friends, parties, social media.

I feel that it may take longer than we expect but Lewis Thorpe and Amaurys Minier will be good to really really good one day.

 

To all players involved Please may God willing, blessingly and YOU stay healthy!

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is a tough one because I think the term "break out" means different things to different people. I'm not going to put Stewart on the list as he's already a top 50 prospect, had a great start, and was drafted 4 overall. Not really a break out candidate. Most expect him to have an excellent season, so break out for him would be Buxtonesque. I'm not going to put those types of expectations on anyone. My candidates:

 

The other nice thing is that with this deep of a system, there are A LOT of candidates.

 

Thorpe - I think this kid will be special. He's already broken out in some ways, as he's in a lot of Twins to 10 lists already. I think he's going to be in a lot of top 100 lists overall next season... I could even see him sniffing top 50.

 

Gonsalves - He was considered 1st round talent and fell more due to character/signability than to his stuff (though it was questioned). The fact that he's a hard throwing lefty will keep him in the system for a while, and so far he looked to be far superior to his rookie league competition. He's another guy that may be in some top 100 lists next year.

 

Polanco - If he can stick at SS, this is another break out guy that could hit top 100 lists. He had a pretty good year in CR and if he's average defensively, he will be on a ton of prospect lists.

 

Kepler - No question on the tools. Just needs to put it all together. Reminds me of a Joe Benson type guy (though hopefully without the mental issues to go with it).

 

May - Peripherals showed improvement last season. ERA didn't. No question on the talent, but thus far he's been a project. I could see him rewarding fans. It wouldn't take much more of an improvement in the peripherals to really start showing up in ERA, and in all honesty, just putting him with a better defense might do the trick.

 

Logan Darnell - not going to hit top 100 lists, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's the first guy called up in MN next year. I think he's a 3 ceiling type guy, but should be far better than a typical 4/5 starter.

 

And for the name no one is mentioning:

 

Aaron Hicks - technically, he broke out last year and then was terrible this year. I think he puts 2013 behind him in AAA, though I don't expect to see him in MN at all in 2014 (baring injury).

[Jim Crikket]

After getting to spend the season watching the Kernels, there are a number of them that I think should be watched for possible "breakout" seasons in 2014. What exactly constitutes a "breakout" would vary by prospect.

 

A couple of "off the radar" guys that I don't think got enough credit for the quality seasons they had are Brett Lee and Dalton Hicks. Breakout seasons for them might be merely putting together a second consecutive excellent season as they move up in class.

 

Jose Berrios and Max Kepler are two guys who are already pretty much "top 10" Twins prospects already, so for them, "breakout" might be having significantly better statistical seasons than what they had in Cedar Rapids in 2013.

 

But if I were to choose two players, one position and one pitcher, that I would predict to open eyes in 2014, they would be Travis Harrison and Mason Melotakis.

 

Harrison worked hard at learning 3B last season, but I don't think he ever really felt comfortable over there and as the season went along, I felt like the laboring defensively carried over to his offensive game. He walked a lot, which is good. He also got wrung up looking at third strikes on (and often, just off) the outside corner, which isn't good. I think he was one pretty frustrated ballplayer by year end, but man can he crush a baseball.

 

If it were me, now that the Twins seem comfortable with Sano playing 3B, I'd put Harrison back out in a corner OF spot and let him play ball. He has good foot speed and a good enough arm. If he's able to concentrate primarily on his hitting for a season, I think he could have a big year in 2014.

 

Melotakis is one of the college relievers that the Twins are giving a shot to be starting pitchers. He had some success with Cedar Rapids and, while the jury is still out on whether he will end up in a rotation or a bullpen long term, I think it's worth giving him a time in both roles again in 2014. His fastball is very good, but it wasn't until he moved to be bullpen later in the season due to reaching his innings limit that his slider became an effective out pitch. He told me in mid-June that they were still experimenting with new slider and change-up grips at that point.

 

Melotakis seems like about as laid back a guy as you could imagine off the field, but on the mound he's very competitive and I like that combination. If he makes strides in 2014 with the secondary pitches and one of them can become a legit out-pitch, I think he could climb the prospect list - and the organizational ladder - quickly.

[Han Joelo]

I'll put my guys into categories.

 

Most Likely to 2013 Pitching Draftee to Exceed Expectations:

Koh...Stephen Consalves. Has a chip on his shoulder and will out-compete Stewart. Or at least hold his own. Stewart would have to be in 2015 Big League conversations to exceed his lofty expectations.

 

Most Likely to Escape the Shadow of Miguel Sano:

Jorge Polanco. He's well regarded, I know, but he may well leap to the head of the Twins prospect list with possible graduations. A Twins MI prospect who can hit? Who knew.

 

Former Top Draft Pick Derailed By Injuries:

 

Alex Wimmers. He may not have ace potential, but I think he'll get back on that fast track he orginally was on. Hope its with the Twins.

 

Former Top Prospect Pick Ready to Star in the Bigs:

 

Cheating here a bit, but...Arcia. He's going to be a beast. Honorable mention to Hicks, Plouffe, and Parmalee. Hope is a good thing...its the best thing.

 

Most Likely to Pull a Josmil Pinto, i.e. rise from#25 to top 5:

 

Kennys Vargas.

[lightfoot789]

If it were me, now that the Twins seem comfortable with Sano playing 3B, I'd put Harrison back out in a corner OF spot and let him play ball. He has good foot speed and a good enough arm. If he's able to concentrate primarily on his hitting for a season, I think he could have a big year in 2014.

 

That being said and I understand your rationale - Who are your outfielders moving forward in A+? and Who is at 3B in A+?

JD WILLIAMS (possible start in high A)

MAX KEPLER

ADAM WALKER

JONATHAN MURPHY

TRAVIS HARRISON

JEREMIAS PINEDA

OTHER POSSIBLE A+ HOLDOVERS

[Jim Crikket]

That being said and I understand your rationale - Who are your outfielders moving forward in A+? and Who is at 3B in A+?

JD WILLIAMS (possible start in high A)

MAX KEPLER

ADAM WALKER

JONATHAN MURPHY

TRAVIS HARRISON

JEREMIAS PINEDA

OTHER POSSIBLE A+ HOLDOVERS

 

It could get crowded, I grant you. But if Harrison is a top 15 organizational prospect (and I believe he is), your priority is developing him rather than some guys with lesser ceilings.

 

I think Williams is your Ft Myers (A+) CF and Walker is in RF there. Murphy and Pineda I see opening the season at Cedar Rapids (A). I think Kepler is going to see a lot of time at 1B in Ft. Myers, splitting time there with DJ HIcks. Stephen Wickens may have earned a promotion to AA last year, but 3B is a bit of a logjam at AA and AAA, so I'd see him staying in Ft. Myers to play 3B if you want Harrison playing the OF there. Joel Licon plays a nice 3B defensively, as well, and while I think Licon opens the year back in Cedar Rapids, I wouldn't think twice about putting him in Ft. Myers if that's what it takes to let Harrison play the OF there.

 

Frankly, I could also see Harrison returning to Cedar Rapids to start the season in a corner OF spot there if they don't feel they have the innings for him in Ft. Myers.

[lightfoot789]

"I think Kepler is going to see a lot of time at 1B in Ft. Myers, splitting time there with DJ HIcks."

What are your thoughts in Michael Gonzalez at 1B then if Ft. Myers has HIcks - Kepler & Gonzalez? Is he let go or skips back up to join Vargas in AA?

Murphy made a great case for becoming a legitimate defensive OF prospect too. He was arguebaly the best defensive guy next to Buxton in the organization (excluding A. Hicks).

Thoughts.............

[Jim Crikket]

"I think Kepler is going to see a lot of time at 1B in Ft. Myers, splitting time there with DJ HIcks."

What are your thoughts in Michael Gonzalez at 1B then if Ft. Myers has HIcks - Kepler & Gonzalez? Is he let go or skips back up to join Vargas in AA?

Murphy made a great case for becoming a legitimate defensive OF prospect too. He was arguebaly the best defensive guy next to Buxton in the organization (excluding A. Hicks).

Thoughts.............

 

Gonzales seems like a great guy and I recall him hitting one of the longest home runs I've ever seen hit in CR back when he was with Beloit, but he's been unlucky with his health and at this point, it kind of seems like his career is dependent on where the team needs organizational filler. AA seems like a possibility or, if the Twins think DJ Hicks should be pushed up to AA, Gonzales and Kepler could split time at 1B in Ft Myers, as they did in CR the second half of 2013.

 

Murphy did a nice job in CR after Buxton was promoted, but he's not in the same time zone as Buck offensively or defensively. Right now, I would put him in a category with guys like JD Williams and Angel Morales as potentially very helpful 4th OFs at the MLB level. All will probably play passable defense in all 3 spots and they've all shown some offensive ability, if not always with a great deal of consistency.

 

Just my 2 cents. I could be wrong. Happens a lot.

[Thrylos]

 

Harrison worked hard at learning 3B last season, but I don't think he ever really felt comfortable over there and as the season went along, I felt like the laboring defensively carried over to his offensive game. He walked a lot, which is good. He also got wrung up looking at third strikes on (and often, just off) the outside corner, which isn't good. I think he was one pretty frustrated ballplayer by year end, but man can he crush a baseball.

 

If it were me, now that the Twins seem comfortable with Sano playing 3B, I'd put Harrison back out in a corner OF spot and let him play ball. He has good foot speed and a good enough arm. If he's able to concentrate primarily on his hitting for a season, I think he could have a big year in 2014..

 

Totally agree about Harrison and 3B. Matter of fact I was just finishing his blurb on my Twins prospects countdown and I feel that he is squeezed at 3B with Sano ahead of him, but with Minier right behind him as well.. The only concern I have with Harrison at OF is tracking fly balls and learning routes, but he can likely do it.

 

As far as who will start at 3B in Fort Myers next season, goes, my gut says Niko Goodrum whom the Twins will likely start grooming as a utility player...

 

The Hicks to AA might mean that Vargas to AAA at some point that season because both need reps at 1B and will be splitting 1B/DH at New Britain

[DJL44]

Players that haven't been mentioned elsewhere

 

Danny Santana - the Twins coaching staff likes his game. He finally drew some walks last year.

 

Alex Meyer - I think he's in the big leagues by June

 

Adrian Salcedo - could move quickly as a reliever

 

Zach Jones - just keeps striking guys out

[Jim Crikket]

Totally agree about Harrison and 3B. Matter of fact I was just finishing his blurb on my Twins prospects countdown and I feel that he is squeezed at 3B with Sano ahead of him, but with Minier right behind him as well.. The only concern I have with Harrison at OF is tracking fly balls and learning routes, but he can likely do it.

 

As far as who will start at 3B in Fort Myers next season, goes, my gut says Niko Goodrum whom the Twins will likely start grooming as a utility player...

 

The Hicks to AA might mean that Vargas to AAA at some point that season because both need reps at 1B and will be splitting 1B/DH at New Britain

 

Good point on Goodrum. Given the reports (LaVelle I think?) that the Twins are going to give Jorge Polanco a season to prove he can play SS (he primarily played 2B for CR while Goodrum played SS), they will need to find another position for Goodrum. Of course, they could just as easily flip Goodrum over to 2B. Point is that there seems to be some organizational level appropriate infield options to allow the move by Harrison if that's what they want to do and I think they should seriously consider it.

[cmathewson]

Players that haven't been mentioned elsewhere

 

Danny Santana - the Twins coaching staff likes his game. He finally drew some walks last year.

 

Alex Meyer - I think he's in the big leagues by June

 

Adrian Salcedo - could move quickly as a reliever

 

Zach Jones - just keeps striking guys out

 

This is a really good list. Santana might be a year away, but he progressed a lot last year. I agree on Meyer. Hopefully Salcedo is healthy again. If so, look out. Jones could move quickly, like Tonkin before him, if he keeps pitching like this.

[P.J842]

I think Gibson, Wimmers, Meyer are the most likely break out pitchers....Wimmers was major league ready when drafted so if the Twins can jput together a healthy program I would like to see up at the end of 2014 to pitch a few games....Just think if he were to pitch against the twins and had a 20 game win season of which he is capable of....He has got to be frustrated....

[shs_59]

I just wanted to add that if BJ Hermsen had 2-3 MPH more on his Fast-ball

 

he'd essentially be Doug Fister , or close too....

 

Without it , he's scott richmond, evan frederickson , or even worse Deolis Guerra.

 

too bad really.

[Trevor0333]

It would be really nice to see if Alex Wimmers & Angel Morales could put themselves back on the prospect map.

[MWLFan]

Got to love what if scenarios. As such here are some that I will throw out as making players big movers this year.

 

I am going to go with Polanco as my first position player breakout player, for the reason that he may become the 2nd baseman of the future. The Twins have 2 trading chips in Rosario and Dozier and as a 2nd baseman Polanco is better in the field then Rosario with a tad less bat, but also maybe less of a overall headcase then Fast Eddie and could be a better overall hitter then Dozier with less power at this point. Dozier is looking to be a good defensive major leaguer which Polanco may become. So at some point I thnik that one of these guys will be traded or moved to OF in the case of Rosario, meaning that Polanco has a good year in a pitchers league and maybe moved to New Britain at some point. At that point he jumps into the top 5 of a lot of lists.

 

I agree with JimCrikket on a couple of Kernals from last year. Travis Harrison is a player that will not be out worked I think. If it is 3b, 1b, OF or wherever they put him he will put in the time to make himself better. He is on the outside of quite a few top 10 lists and with a good season at the plate and plan to advance at some position he should put himself in the Top 10's of all next year. Can't see him really moving further then Fort Meyers this year, but if the Twins keep him in the IF is it possible to sneak some at bats for the Rock Cats if the bat lives up to expectations? Maybe not, but in December you can through stuff on the wall and see what is sticking in June.

 

I saw about 6 Kernals games this year and Mason Melotakis pitched in 3 of them. I saw ups and downs with Berrios in the game he pitched, a lot more ups then down to be honest and a lot I think had to do with him being a young kid, but Melotakis looks to be a professional on the mound. He could be a fast mover this year. Don't know if he could make it to Rochester, but I would be disappointed if he did not spend July and August in New Britain. Once again a guy whose role needs to be fully defined...is he a starter or a bull pen guy.

 

Last but not least the under appreciated James Beresford. This year he makes it to the majors as the Twins utility player. He will be ripped by some because he has little power in a underwhelming bat, but he is smart, beyond sound defensively and durable. He is the kind of player every manager wants on his bench as he knows he will get everything he has everyday and more. He will also improve his limited skills once he makes it to the majors.

 

Others to watch-Goodrum, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Koch and Turner. The Twins have a opening at catcher now and anyone behind the plate suddenly becomes more interesting to watch.

[ericchri]

I can't say I'm necessarily predicting a breakout per se, but the two players I am most hopeful of having a breakout next year would be Jorge Polanco and Danny Santana. Polanco has a full season to see if he has what it takes to play SS, and Danny Santana should get to show what he's got at AAA. That's pretty much been the one position where we don't have much for really promising prospects up to this point, only flashes of potential. It sure would be nice to see one of those guys grab the position and really make it look like they have what it takes. Honorable mention to Levi Michael and Niko Goodrum, I just don't have as high hopes for either.

 

As for an actual guess for breakout player, I'd say Stuart Turner. His hitting numbers this year weren't terrible, if he's even average with the stick he becomes a really good prospect with his supposed stellar defense at catcher.