Article: Minnesota Twins Agree To Deal With Ricky Nolasco

[ScottyB]

Where did you get this?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/twins-agree-to-terms-with-ricky-nolasco.html

[Bark's Lounge]

Wow! I am surprised to say the least.

 

Besides the game threads, this is the most positive thread in the History of Twins Daily.

 

I definitely could get use to this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree with the above sentiments -- glad to see TR finally made a move in free agency.

 

That said, Nolasco's been a full-time starter for 6 seasons, and has posted a league-average (95) or better starter's ERA+ just twice. Dude has really under-performed his FIP -- according to B-Ref, he hasn't exceeded 1.8 WAR in a season since 2008. Vargas is the same age and has basically had equal or better results the past 4 years.

 

Still glad we got him. Hopefully we're still looking and bidding competitively, though. I have a feeling this is it (well, this and Pelfrey).

[Fanatic Jack]

Jeremy,

 

You called it. Pretty close on the numbers too. Seth could not agree more EXCITED. And I'm very negative. Question to both of you who's next? I really want Navarro and one more pitcher? Salty does not seem to make sense.

[darin617]

Yeah.

that's what the Royals paid for Vargas practically

 

If your math is terrible. Vargas 4yr/$32M Nolasco 4yr/$49M. The Twins could add Scott Baker and we would still have some left over money...lol

[Jim Crikket]

I wouldn't call it a great deal for the Twins. It's in the range of a fair deal for both sides, IMO. I wouldn't call it overpaying, however, so that alone surprises me and is an encouraging sign. To get this deal, you would imagine the Twins had to convince Nolasco and his agent that this would not be their only significant upgrade to the roster.

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Twins gave Nolasco very little time to consider the offer. At least I hope this is the approach they're taking... make a strong, competitive bid, but don't give the agent a bunch of time to take that offer out and shop it around for something better. $49 million in guaranteed money would be awfully tough for most players on the FA market not named Cano to walk away from and assume they're certain to do better.

[Heimer]

He's dependable but not the # 1 or 2 true starting pitcher or future #1 or two were still seeking. Either way it's a good statement signing by TR and the FO. And there's still plenty of time.

[grumpyrob]

Well, here is to TR (as I raise my crow getting ready to eat it since my projected FA pitcher signing was going to be Pelfrey)....surprised me. But lets see where this stops. Hopefully another pitcher, would like to see Garza, but I am sure he wants to much for us, and we will most likely go with Arroyo.

[Shane Wahl]

I will refrain from commenting.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Im shocked at how low we got him and TR actually made a move.

[drivlikejehu]

Definitely a good move. It won't be hard for him to earn the contract if he mostly stays healthy.

 

One pitcher certainly doesn't fix an entire rotation, of course (not that getting all the way there is even possible in one off-season). Hopefully we will see another couple moves, in free agency or via trade, to field a rotation potentially close to average.

[Trevor0333]

I will refrain from commenting.

 

But we are dying to know how you feel about this?

 

I am curious, what type of stats would Nolasco need to put up to be considered a fair contract with the terms being now known?

[Han Joelo]

Cripes! Vargas for $48 or Nolasco for $52? No brainer.

 

On another note, there is little greater irony than the difference between the comments on the two main TD headline stories right now. On the one hand you have folks parsing TR's words as to whether he'd sign a free agent and sacrifice a second round pick--implying that he wouldn't. On the other hand accolades for spending some money. I'm sure comments to the effect Nolasco is overpaid will soon ensue.

[Brad Swanson]

But we are dying to know how you feel about this?

 

I am curious, what type of stats would Nolasco need to put up to be considered a fair contract with the terms being now known?

 

According to Fangraphs, Nolasco has been worth $49.8 million. He was worth $15.2 mil last season. Their numbers aren't perfect, but it's a point of reference.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I am very happy. A great step in the right direction, even if Nolasco isn't the "true number one" type.

[Otto von Ballpark]

According to Fangraphs, Nolasco has been worth $49.8 million. He was worth $15.2 mil last season. Their numbers aren't perfect, but it's a point of reference.

 

Of course, Fangraphs value is based on FIP rather than actual runs allowed, and Nolasco has been a fairly spectacular FIPS underperformer. Fangraphs also thought Mike Pelfrey was worth $10.7 mil last year in only 152 IP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cripes! Vargas for $48 or Nolasco for $52? No brainer.

 

Vargas got $32 mil. 4 years, $8 mil per.

[Shane Wahl]

10.8 WAR in 8 seasons. I am not sure $12 million a year is warranted. It would be good to be wrong.

[Boom Boom]

10.8 WAR in 8 seasons. I am not sure $12 million a year is warranted. It would be good to be wrong.

 

That's the nature of the beast. When you're a price-taker on the free agent market for pitchers like the Twins, you're going to have to overpay some.

 

I'm not in love with Nolasco but in more than one way this is a step in the right direction.

[Brad Swanson]

10.8 WAR in 8 seasons. I am not sure $12 million a year is warranted. It would be good to be wrong.

 

I'm a big WAR guy, but I still feel WAR doesn't fully appreciate innings pitched. The strange thing is that a pitcher who pitches 200 innings greatly decreases the amount of innings pitched by (typically) below-replacement level sixth and seventh starters.

[Kwak]

Maybe, hopefully, Nolasco will permit the Twins to reduce the bullpen to seven pitchers and add a (much needed) position player to the Active Roster.

[johnnydakota]

Wow! I am surprised to say the least.

 

Besides the game threads' date=' this is the most positive thread in the History of Twins Daily.

 

I definitely could get use to this.[/quote']

 

Just goes to show you if they do positive things , fans respond positivly...

I for 1 am happy , and surprised at the amount Terry got him for , was a good deal, Now if thats just a start and we get another better starter(a few more clicks on the FB)then this will be a very credible off season

[lee_the_twins_fan]

OK, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco. I think it's a very good signing, but I have a question. The Twins had 39 players on their 40-player roster. With just a few days until the Rule 5 draft, will the Twins drop someone from the roster to draft someone, or will they wait until after Nolasco passes a physical exam? Either way, I figure the team will soon have to drop one or more from the roster. Who will that be?

[ashbury]

Like.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Am I the only jerk on here who feels that this move has made us World Series contenders? Am I wrong for feeling that way? Should I feel guilty and ashamed?

[DocBauer]

Ecstatic!

 

And not just because the dam is breaking and we have something positive to talk about instead of pure conjecture. Lol

 

1: Our rotation is instantly better and deeper, giving us a better, more competitive chance to win nightly/daily. As a side note, it instantly makes one of the best bullpens in MLB better as well, not having to work as hard.

 

2: Not a huge modern day stat guy here. I get lost sometimes in WAR and Fip and how it all translates. But to naysayers out there, Nolascos overall stats are not only good, but quite good. Especially when you look at the fact he's played on some pretty lousy teams. He's only 31, in what could and should b his prime years based on stuff, durability, and a sense of what it takes to actually pitch and not throw. And his overall numbers the past 3 seasons show actual improvement.

 

3: This also is proof that the Twins are not simply paying lip-service to spending and improving. And don't think for a second that other targeted FA's and their agents aren't paying attention. ( along with having one of the best farm systems around with truly great talent on the cusp of arrival and a terrific ballpark)

 

NOW, we can't stop! And I don't think we will. Based on cuts from last year, and the new surplus of income that all teams will enjoy, there is still plenty of money left over to spend without taking the Twins out of any comfort zone.

 

We follow this up with Garza, Kazmir, Hughes or even the older Arroyo, (not my favorite just due to longevity) and a vet C like Salt or AJ and I feel soooo good.

 

Even a healthy Capuano is not a terrible choice IMO.

 

One more of these FA pitchers and a C, possibly a decent INF option who can hit LH, and this offseason is a huge success. Based on different projections I have read, and my own calculations, the Twins have anywhere from $23-25M saved, plus another $13M from the new TV deal money to spend, or roughly $36-38M total spend without actually "raising payroll" out of pocke, so to speak. We still have another $24-26M available.

 

More than enough for another of the SP I have listed and we have been linked to, plus Salt or AJ. And with the idea of improving "the product" that is our Twins, JP and TR might be inclined to go a little over that for a Pelfrey or Santana to potentially improve even more.

 

And lest we forget, another $16-17M comes off the books next year for more financial flexibility and improvement. Plus great talent flowing up and in.

 

One final point, I would be very happy to make one of the mentioned trades for a talented young SP vs another quality FA P signing, but am mostly against it at this point. I would rather invest in another of the mentioned FA SP, and hoarde all our available talent for this year, and possibly revisit trades next off season.

[Brandon]

Dougie has a quote from Garza that he isn't concerned that he lost a suitor as he states the Twns still have money to spend.

 

Also I am glad that for once we are pillaging talent from other organizations via free agency instead of being other teams farm teams.

[DaveW]

10.8 WAR in 8 seasons. I am not sure $12 million a year is warranted. It would be good to be wrong.

 

Very odd that you suddenly come around to WAR all of sudden, when less than 24 hours ago you were completely ignoring it in regards to Pelfrey who you called terrible and "Hendriks could put up equal numbers" even though Pelfrey put up 9.2 WAR over his last 5 full seasons. (including last year)

 

Additionally you were telling us all how Doumit could be expected to outproduce Salty overall at catcher, when a quick glance at WAR shows us that in the last year Salty beat Doumit in WAR 3.6 to 0.1, in the last two years: 4.5 to 1.5 and in the last 3 years: 7.1 to 3.4

 

I'm not saying WAR is the end all be all stat (never have) but its a little odd you suddenly only respond to this signing, by using WAR as your only rebuttal, when you have done nothing but dismissed it time and time again very recently when it conveniently didn't fit your narrative.

[DaveW]

OK, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco. I think it's a very good signing, but I have a question. The Twins had 39 players on their 40-player roster. With just a few days until the Rule 5 draft, will the Twins drop someone from the roster to draft someone, or will they wait until after Nolasco passes a physical exam? Either way, I figure the team will soon have to drop one or more from the roster. Who will that be?

 

There are about 5 candidates.

[DaveW]

Am I the only jerk on here who feels that this move has made us World Series contenders? Am I wrong for feeling that way? Should I feel guilty and ashamed?

 

I mean, if all things break right (counting on Arcia, Pinto, Sano, Meyer and Gibson to come on like gangbusters) I could see it. However, I think it gets us one step closer to respectability, sign another nice top of rotation pitcher and a bat....then I think we are suddenly a dark-horse in 2014.