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Baseball Prospectus Goes Twins Crazy!


Brad Swanson

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Posted

On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks:

 

Shelby Miller 1st rd

Joe Kelly 3rd rd

 

They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions:

 

Matt Carpenter 13th rd

Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd

Matt Adams 23rd rd

Keith Butler 24th rd

 

There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.

 

It's one draft. Over the last decade, the Cards and Twins have drafted about the same WAR (if you exclude players that didn't sign). Cards had a great draft in 03 (even ignoring unsigned guys like Ian Kennedy and Max Schertzer), 05, 06 and 09. Twins had great drafts in 02-05. Twins bombed 06, Cards bombed 04. The more recent drafts are hard to gauge yet.

 

If you want to argue that the Twins drafted worse after Ryan and Radcliff gave way to Smith and Johnson, you certainly can. Some of the more recent guys - Hicks, Gibson - are just getting here so those drafts will (hopefully) improve in hindsight.

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Posted

My comp for Walker is Mark Trumbo: big power, low OBP, high strikeouts, not much defensive value. Trumbo is definitely a useful player (and very valuable pre-arbitration), but not a superstar. I think this is Walker's ceiling unless he learns to get on-base better.

 

I don't think Walker has Trumbo's power. I think his ceiling might be closer to a guy like Jacque Jones - Jones had BB/SO issues in both the minors and majors but had some real speed (something Trumbo doesn't have) and was a better defender than Trumbo - at least in most years. Jones could hit about 20 HR and would occasionally approach 30. But he didn't walk much so, unless he hit .300, he wasn't anything special. But he had a nice ML career and made $25m. That's not bad.

Posted

On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks:

 

Shelby Miller 1st rd

Joe Kelly 3rd rd

 

They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions:

 

Matt Carpenter 13th rd

Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd

Matt Adams 23rd rd

Keith Butler 24th rd

 

There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.

That Cardinals draft of 2009 might be the best of all time when you consider how many impact players there are (assuming they continue to produce). I think most draft classes are considered a success if you get one starter (either pitcher or position) and one backup/relief pitcher. I've never really seen a discussion of best baseball draft classes, that would be an interesting article.

Posted
On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (versus the St Louis Cardinals). Not surprisingly, they totally outclassed the Twins. There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.

 

No need to get too frustrated or disturbed. In 2009 we signed Sano, Polanco, and Kepler.

Posted

Why is Adam Walker the point of consternation here? No one is saying he's a bad prospect. No one is saying he's an exceptional one either. He put up great stats in Cedar Rapids at age 22 and showed he improved over his rookie league stats. Are they ideal? No. If they were, he'd be higher up on these lists. The potential is there. That was said when he was drafted. That still hasn't change except that we've seen evidence he's improving.

 

One of my beefs with the stats only type arguments is that people aren't really asking why his K/BB rate is where it is. If he's striking out a 20% clip b/c he cannot hit breaking pitches, we have a problem. He's going to get exposed at higher levels as the pitchers get better. If he's not walking right now simply b/c he excels at hitting bad pitches, we might have a problem. He won't get nearly as many bad pitches as he advances. Perhaps it's because he's a very good hitter of pitches in the zone and his K rate has more to do with swinging at bad pitches out of the zone. Again, we don't know. The last one might be the best tihng as he's shown improvement in that area... and if that's the case, the walks will come too.

 

Walker is a nice prospect. He'd be much higher up on a lot of other team's lists, and he's no sure thing. That, to me, is the most impressive take away. Our 11-20 guys are better than some team's 1-10 guys, and our 21-30 guys would make the top 20 on quite a few team's lists. That bodes well for the Twins long term.

Posted
I don't think Walker has Trumbo's power. I think his ceiling might be closer to a guy like Jacque Jones.

 

:) You obviously have never seen this kid play (just kidding). His power was listed as possibly the best in his draft class. From everything I've seen and read - There aren't many in baseball with more power. You be the judge: AdamBrettWalkerKernelHighlightsVideo

 

I could live with Jacque Jones at his best. That said: Walker seems to be hitting everything from off speed to fastballs in these videos. Worth the viewing if you have not seen the kid and judging merely on select articles. Many of his HRs also came off Pitchers who are Top prospects in their respective organizations. Another intangible often over looked (who are you hitting & who is getting you out?).

 

I agree with alot of what Diehardtwinsfan says - My only beef is when posters state he strikes out way too much and is not showing any signs of improving? That's not factual. We dismiss Stats now that sabermetrics are the new grading scale - But the game still comes down to scoring runs and driving in runs from an offensive perspective. If I have a prospect who has shown an ability to do both throughout his life span (HS / College / Pros) and make minor adjustments along the way. Why doubt so heavily? (1) Low BB rate (true), but scores more than everyone else in league (2) Average K rate (20%) and drives in more runs than everyone else (3) Just Wins at every level:

*Great Lakes Summer League - Best Record in League (HR leader & 2nd in RBI)

*Jacksonville University - Beat #1 UF (2011) & made NCAA regionals (All Tourney Team)

*Hyannis (Cape Cod) - 1st Regular Season Championship in 23 years (led team in HRs & RBI)

*Elizabethton Twins - League Champions (Top 5 - HRs - RBI - Runs - Slg% - OPS)

*Cedar Raids Kernels - Best Record in all of Minor Leagues

Just wins and brings those intangibles to the Twins too. That's why he is so high on my list.

Posted
No doubt the Twins were/are a leader in Australia. What effects has it had on the MLB club? Why weren't the Twins more effective in Latin America?

 

They were late to the game. It was a good move to hit a little used resource (Australia) but it doesn't make up for the decade or so head start many other teams had on the Twins in Latin America.

Posted
I agree with alot of what Diehardtwinsfan says - My only beef is when posters state he strikes out way too much and is not showing any signs of improving?

 

From what I can see, only one person said he strikes out way too much and no one said he wasn't showing signs of improvement. Those throwing up red flags all seem to have concerns with the lack of walks. And it is a giant red flag.

 

We are talking about a player who had 30% more HR than the 2nd place finisher and 20% more RBI. The guys he was facing should have been pitching around him regularly, particularly after Buxton and Hicks got promoted mid-season. Considering the power numbers he put up, half of those 31 BB were probably intentional or on intentionally unhittable pitches. The number of walks he took by actully working a count probably is closer to single digits which is awful considering the lack of control from 20-year-old pitchers in Low A ball.

Posted
The number of walks he took by actully working a count probably is closer to single digits which is awful considering the lack of control from 20-year-old pitchers in Low A ball.

 

It was 1 person that I originally was speaking to. Walker's walks are an issue as I stated. He could do better and should. That being said - I can't remember where I read it, but I saw that he was 9 for 12 with bases load with 3 grand slams last year. He also played with 2 strikes more than anyone on the Cedar Rapids team (while limiting his K rate).

Posted

First off, as it seems to be a problem here, Walker was only 21 during the entire 201 season for the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Not 22, not 22, not 22, not 22.

 

Born: October 18, 1991 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US (Age 22)

 

The Kernels season ended in Sept 2013, which is the month before October.

 

Per Baseball America article...

 

AL Scout...

 

“Walker is a great mistake hitter. I’ve kept the same (overall scouting grade) on him all the way through,” a pro scout for an American League club said. “For me, he’s still a slow-twitch guy. The jump to the Florida State League is when it comes out. There the breaking balls are a little sharper. (The pitchers) have better command.

“I still have questions about Walker. I don’t know if he can catch up to good fastballs. He can hit the cripples, no doubt. He hits them a long ways.”

 

When did the questions start...Summer 2011 during the Cape Cod League...

 

skepticism about his hitting ability began two years ago with a really bad month.

 

Over the final month of the summer college league season, Walker hit .089/.180/.156 with one extra-base hit and 23 strikeouts in 45 at-bats. With plenty of amateur scouts and front office executives checking in on him over that stretch, the lasting impression was of a hitter who seemed overmatched.

 

NL Scout...

 

“His power is unbelievable...In a home run contest for the Cape Cod League at Fenway (Park) . . . he made (Stanford’s) Austin Wilson look like he was hitting in Williamsport.”

 

 

Also...on if Walker can take ground balls and handle 1B...he played 1B in college.

 

 

Scouts and GMs alike can dream on the power in Walker's bat and the potential in his frame to unlock even more. His swing, however, needs plenty of refinement before he can tap into the power potential he has. He is frequently unbalanced throughout and his timing is inconsistent at best.

 

 

Link:

http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/adam-brett-walker.html

Posted

So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

 

BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

 

Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

 

How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

 

a. Kenny Vargas

b. Dalton Hicks

c. Travis Harrison

d. Adam Walker

 

 

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 897]

Year

Year

Age

Tm

Lg

Lev

G

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

IBB

BB/PA

SO/PA

Kenny Vargas

2012

21

Beloit

MIDW

A

41

186

154

22

49

10

1

11

36

0

28

41

0.318

0.419

0.610

1.030

3

15.1%

22.0%

[/TD]

2013

22

Fort Myers

FLOR

A+

125

520

457

68

122

33

1

19

93

0

50

105

0.267

0.344

0.468

0.813

3

9.6%

20.2%

Dalton Hicks

2013

23

Cedar Rapids

MIDW

A

89

400

354

50

105

31

0

13

82

0

34

85

0.297

0.355

0.494

0.850

2

8.5%

21.3%

[TD]2013

23

Fort Myers

FLOR

A+

42

176

148

18

40

8

0

4

28

0

22

38

0.270

0.364

0.405

0.769

0

12.5%

21.6%

Travis Harrison

2013

20

Cedar Rapids

MIDW

A

129

537

450

66

114

28

0

15

59

2

68

125

0.253

0.366

0.416

0.782

3

12.7%

23.3%

Adam Walker

2013

21

Cedar Rapids

MIDW

A

129

553

508

83

141

31

7

27

109

10

31

115

0.278

0.319

0.526

0.844

3

5.6%

20.8%

[/TABLE]

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

Posted
first off, as it seems to be a problem here, walker was only 21 during the entire 201 season for the cedar rapids kernels. Not 22, not 22, not 22, not 22.

 

born: October 18, 1991 in milwaukee, wisconsin, us (age 22)

 

the kernels season ended in sept 2013, which is the month before october.

 

Per baseball america article...

 

Al scout...

 

 

 

when did the questions start...summer 2011 during the cape cod league...

 

 

 

nl scout...

 

 

 

also...on if walker can take ground balls and handle 1b...he played 1b in college.

 

 

 

 

Link:

http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/adam-brett-walker.html

like!

Posted
So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

 

BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

 

Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

 

How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

 

a. Kenny Vargas

b. Dalton Hicks

c. Travis Harrison

d. Adam Walker

 

 

I like Vargas bat best but he has zero defensive value so it has to be better. He is old for his level but he also has very little pro ball experience. Despite being 23 almost half of his MiLB experience came last year. His future in the MLB is becoming a .275/.350/.475/.825 DH for the Twins. And there's a lot more downside to that projection than upside.

 

Walker is the best athlete but he is going to have to be more selective as he moves up because better pitchers won't give him good pitches to hit.

 

Harrison is the opposite in some ways to Walker. Despite having a sweet swing he hasn't dazzled statistically. He walks a lot but also K's a lot. He's hit some bombs but only has a so-so .160 isoP so far. His offense is going to need to carry him because very few think he will stick at 3B.

 

D.J. Hicks seemingly has no buzz and is even older than Vargas and is a step behind him on the depth chart. Hicks differs from Vargas since he played college ball and his significantly more baseball experience. His stats are similar to the rest but he seems to be org depth similar to Brock Peterson, Erik Lis and Garrett Jones from 5 yrs ago. One of those did become a solid role player though.

 

I think Vargas is the best bet to be an MLB startable player (at DH). Walker and Harrison have higher ceilings but neither is likely to make the majors. The good news is that the Twins have several of these guys and combined one is likely to make it.

 

Kepler kind of matches up with Harrison. He's a solid prospect that hasn't flopped but his raw skills haven't translated to his statline.

Posted
So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

 

BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

 

Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

 

How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

 

a. Kenny Vargas

b. Dalton Hicks

c. Travis Harrison

d. Adam Walker

 

I like Harrison's chances to make the majors and be solid the best. And as a 1st round pick, the team will give him more slack to make it. I think Walker has more tools but he's far away. Hicks is a college guy in A+, hope he makes it but not really a big time prospect. I like Vargas (I saw him at ST, he's huge) but he really has to hit to make it.

 

I'd go Harrison, Vargas/Walker, Hicks

Posted
So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

 

BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

 

Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

 

How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

 

a. Kenny Vargas

b. Dalton Hicks

c. Travis Harrison

d. Adam Walker

 

.

 

1 - Vargas

2 - Harrison

3 - Walker

3 - Hicks

 

At the start of the off-season I said if Vargas was added to the 40 man he could get a shot a at 1B sometime around July or August in 2014. - Because there wasn't that many options at 1B in the system. But now that Mauer is there, I don't think thats likely. However, if he continues to hit for power and get on base, he might get a shot in 2015. As a DH, right now he is being blocked by Willingham/Doumit/Colabello. All three of those guys probably won't be with the team in 2015, so he might be in the mix. He is a switch hitter and seems to hit OK from both sides of the plate but might be better from the right side. His ceiling is a power hitting 1B. And based on positional value, probably the lowest ceiling

Harrison - He is supposed to have a great swing and is a hardworker. I dunno. I have seen bad comments on his D and he hasn't produced. But he is young and has decent plate discipline, maybe he can get it going. If he improves at the plate, I would say best case is 2016 arrival. He might have the highest "ceiling" of the 4 but he would have to learn how to play the OF.

Walker - My feelings on him were already said. Unless he learns how to get on base, his ceiling is a 4th OF with some pop. If he makes it will be 2017. - But if he changes his approach at the plate and learns how to get on Base he would be at the top of this list.

Hicks - He has the lowest ceiling but OK power. He is a 1B who adds some depth to the organization and could get a cup of coffee in 2017.

Posted

194 HR and up club. Sosa and Piazza had worse walk rates. Sosa was younger though. The rest were within a year (older or younger) and at A/A+ ball.

 

The big thing is that BB%.

.

 

I grabbed a few of those names on this list

Walker OB% was .319 - not good

McGuire in A ball was .393

Buhner was .392

Sexson as a 19 Year old in A ball was .338

 

High K% and even a Low BB% is fine if you can find other ways to get on base - especially if you got power. Walker needs to do that, if he does..MAN he could be fun. But I don't have a lot of hope on college guys who keep having the same issues.

Posted

High K% and even a Low BB% is fine if you can find other ways to get on base - especially if you got power. Walker needs to do that, if he does..MAN he could be fun. But I don't have a lot of hope on college guys who keep having the same issues.

 

Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

 

If the point is that this will not last due to law of averages (ok). We will agree to disagree. I tend to believe in history and results over that history. Winners win or find a way to win. I want the dude who knows how to score and drive in runs with consistency. I'll take a poor mans version of Sano any day. Sano walks more (65 to 31) and K's more (27% to 20%) than Walker, but scored 3 more runs than Walker and drove in less. He's the number #3 player in all of baseball (with good reason / Awesome player). Sano in MLB at 21 - Walker at 24 - I'll take their adjusted learning curves and relish for years to come. I see the major improvements in both.

Posted
Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

 

If the point is that this will not last due to law of averages (ok). We will agree to disagree. I tend to believe in history and results over that history. Winners win or find a way to win. I want the dude who knows how to score and drive in runs with consistency. I'll take a poor mans version of Sano any day. Sano walks more (65 to 31) and K's more (27% to 20%) than Walker, but scored 3 more runs than Walker and drove in less. He's the number #3 player in all of baseball (with good reason / Awesome player). Sano in MLB at 21 - Walker at 24 - I'll take their adjusted learning curves and relish for years to come. I see the major improvements in both.

 

Hope you are right. I have never looked at runs scored as anything meaningful. I usually just ignore it right away. Maybe you are on to an underlooked stat, but I will leave that investigation to others with more time. And if he could become an impact bat it would be great!

Posted
Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

 

If the point is that this will not last due to law of averages (ok). We will agree to disagree. I tend to believe in history and results over that history. Winners win or find a way to win. I want the dude who knows how to score and drive in runs with consistency. I'll take a poor mans version of Sano any day. Sano walks more (65 to 31) and K's more (27% to 20%) than Walker, but scored 3 more runs than Walker and drove in less. He's the number #3 player in all of baseball (with good reason / Awesome player). Sano in MLB at 21 - Walker at 24 - I'll take their adjusted learning curves and relish for years to come. I see the major improvements in both.

 

Runs and RBIs are good but they are very team dependent. A guy like Mauer, for instance, gets ripped on for not getting enough RBIs but he actually knocks in a higher % of runners than many sluggers - he just doesn't get the chance with men on base enough. So judging runs scored in a minor league season doesn't tell you much about the individual prospect. Walker might have played against 3 pitchers who will be ML starters.

 

Every kid in A ball has been a winner their whole life. They are amazing baseball players even if that's as far as they get. Do you know who Cole Garner is? In 06, as a 21 year old, he led all A ball in runs (100) while knocking 19 home runs and 40 doubles. He had a ISO well over .200, walk rate below 5% and a krate at 25%. He was a 26th round pick who managed to play 4 games in the majors. Jonathan Greene, Cody Johnson, Seth Fortenberry. All of these guys scored a lot of runs or hit a lot of home runs or both at A ball at the same age or younger. Johnson was a first round pick who hit 94 minor league home runs before he was 22. He was playing in the indy leagues at 24. Guys who dominated A ball are legion. They were all winners. But those who can't learn to control the strike zone usually don't make it to the majors.

 

And that is what the concern about Walker is all about. No one doubts his tools - he could be a great player. But right now, he is not a great prospect b/c, based on his play, scouts worry about how his hitting approach will work as he starts to face better hitters. (Now, when I say not a great prospect I don't mean to diss him. He'd certainly be a top 10 prospect in other team's systems but right now he's more lottery ticket than prospect. I'm really glad the Twins have him).

Posted

Though just a small sample size...3 and myself. I tend to like Vargas the most, too.

 

He lost a lot of 'development' with that 50 game suspension a couple years back (2011). It was due to taking Phentermine, which is used to help in weight loss.

 

Ft. Myers had him listed as 6'5'' 274 this past season...

Posted
Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

 

 

Well, to answer your sabermetric quesiton, runs scored is largely a metric of the guys behind you in the linup, just like RBI's is largely a metric of what the guys in front of you are doing. It has little to do with "knowing how to score" or "consistently driving in runs". They are horrible ways to judge a prospect. Getting on base is the best way because that's something largely in the batter's control, and the best way to outscore your opponent is to not make outs.

 

The issue I think you are missing is that the stats don't simply translate up the chain. Things will change for him in Fort Meyers, just as they will change when he hits New Brittian, Rochester, and (hopefully) Minnesota. The question at hand has a lot to do with why he's so divergent with walks and Ks. If he's free swinging at pitches out of the zone, he's going to find that he will have to make adjustments as pitchers will pitch him out of the zone far more than they should. If his problem is that he simply cannot hit the breaking pitches, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in AA.

Posted
Well, to answer your sabermetric quesiton, runs scored is largely a metric of the guys behind you in the linup, just like RBI's is largely a metric of what the guys in front of you are doing. It has little to do with "knowing how to score" or "consistently driving in runs". They are horrible ways to judge a prospect. Getting on base is the best way because that's something largely in the batter's control, and the best way to outscore your opponent is to not make outs.

 

The issue I think you are missing is that the stats don't simply translate up the chain. Things will change for him in Fort Meyers, just as they will change when he hits New Brittian, Rochester, and (hopefully) Minnesota. The question at hand has a lot to do with why he's so divergent with walks and Ks. If he's free swinging at pitches out of the zone, he's going to find that he will have to make adjustments as pitchers will pitch him out of the zone far more than they should. If his problem is that he simply cannot hit the breaking pitches, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in AA.

 

I think this is a good explanation.

 

After watching Walker in CR all season, my impression is that his case is more the former than the latter. It often felt like he just really likes to HIT and especially with runners on base. He gets off on driving in runs and that led him to expand his strike zone more than he should have. I think that's something experience and instruction can help him with. He may always be a bit of a "mistake hitter," but man can he hit those mistakes a long way.

Posted

More on Walker...

 

Jerry (San Diego): Where would you rate Adam Brett Walker's power on the scouting scale? Do you anticipate he will make enough contact as a hitter to be a good prospect as he moves up through the minors or do you think his Ks will get the best of him?

Jim Shonerd: At least a 70 raw power. As we’ve written elsewhere, he’s right there with Sano in terms of sheer power. Before this year, I would’ve said yes, strikeouts will be his undoing, but he’s made promising progress cutting them down.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-chat-with-jim-shonerd-3/

 

 

I'm highest on Vargas...Walker 2nd...Harrison and Dalton. My guess on Dalton is AAAA player at best.

Posted
I think clutterheart is right. Walker is a 22 year old college guy in low A ball. That's a scary krate. And, more frighteningly, his walk rate fell to about 5%.

 

Walker is one of the prospects I tend to watch closely. The optimist in me hopes this guy learns some plate discipline and develops into a star. I know the odds are not good but wow what a boost it would be to our team if he turned into a star.

Posted
Walker is one of the prospects I tend to watch closely. The optimist in me hopes this guy learns some plate discipline and develops into a star. I know the odds are not good but wow what a boost it would be to our team if he turned into a star.

 

I'm with you... The light bulb can come on at any time.

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