Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: Summary

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2463-Minnesota-Twins-Top-50-Prospects-Summary

[Tibs]

I don't know much about Amaurys Minier, but he sounds like a similar player to Miguel Sano. Is that true? Thanks for putting together this list, Seth!

[Dman]

I really enjoyed your top 50 list and couldn't wait as you parceled them out sooo slowly. I enjoy the unique perspective you bring, with the knowledge you have of so many players. Looking at the top 25 you have to feel pretty good about getting some great players to the majors. Even 50 to 25 looks pretty good. Let's hope these guys take the Twins to the playoffs in the near future.

[biscuit]

OK. Did I miss something here? Gibson not in the 50? Or is he no longer considered a prospect?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd say there are guys in the 20-30 range that would be in most team's top 20 list. That is nice.

 

Pinto is too low.

[jay]

OK. Did I miss something here? Gibson not in the 50? Or is he no longer considered a prospect?

 

Yes, you missed something -- Part 1: 46-50

"Before we get to the list and the series, a quick reminder of my definition of a prospect. First, I follow the guidelines that Major League Baseball uses for rookie of the year eligibility. That is, 130 big league at-bats for hitters and 50 innings pitched for pitchers. There is also a service time piece so that relievers that spend 2/3 of the season with the big league club yet only rack up 40 innings do not quality as a prospect any longer."

 

Gibson, of course, pitched 51 innings. A relatively arbitrary cut-off that makes it fun to think about what this list and the Twins ranking compared to others would look like if only he'd gotten 4 fewer guys out. I'd put him at #6 here, personally.

[Chance]

I could agree with Gibson at #6 if eligible.

 

Out of players that qualify, I would move Thorpe up to #6. Polanco hasn't had continued success that you would like to see at #6. If he has another year at Ft. Myers as he did at Cedar Rapids this year, I'll change my mind completely. JO Berrios looks like a very real bet to land in the Twins rotation for years. I am, however, a little concerned about his endurance as a starter. Does his body project as one that can handle 200+ innings for several years without fatigue and injury issues? I'm not confident about that. Kepler just seems to dangle on the side of the fence representing bust, more so, than the quality MLB everyday player. That may just be me. I, right now, don't see him being much more than a Plouffe.

 

Please note: As I mentioned with Polanco, all my opinions could drastically change with steps in the right direction this season. I fully respect and enjoy Seth's takes. If I was to be a General Manager he would surely have a spot on my staff. I admittedly know next to nothing to Seth, but I have my baseless opinions none-the-less and voice them freely.

 

Thanks Seth!

[twinsfan34]

I've only glanced at other top rated farm teams. So that said, maybe you know better.

 

But I feel the Twins from those glance overs have one of the youngest group of Top Prospects - which to me is all the more impressive. You have the Buxton & Sano nearly 3 years younger than the respective league average age.

 

This does also mean we are still a few years away, but it's encouraging to have top guys who are 2+ years younger at the same stage and often atop of the league leaders in production.

[Rosterman]

The Twins are considered better offensively than from the mound in current mainstream rankings, yet you ranked so many pitchers (almost half) in the top 50.

 

Two items of discussions: Do batter move up in the system faster than pitchers.

 

I am always curious as to how many of the Top 10 actually make it to the majors and contribute from years past. We know that players drop in and out of the rankings sometimes over the 3-4 year period. We also know that you don't have to be a Top propsect to get major league play, depending on the role needed filling.

 

Also, how do YOU think the Twins rate overall with placement of their minor league teams: Florida, New Britain, Iowa, Rochester NY and the mountains of Tennessee. I can honestly see nothing wrong with the rookie league and High-A being in the Florida sunshine in a state-of-the-art complex.....but does it matter to be in the INT League of PCL League or Eastern League or Midwest League?

 

And will this be the first year that the Twins go with more prospects at the AAA level than minor league free agents, or what?

[lightfoot789]

I would like to know who you think will be in Ft. Myers this Spring as part of the Miracle (from your 50 top prospects). 1) Who moves up from CR and 2) who stays from the Miracle and 3) Who by passes CR from the 2013 draft?

[clutterheart]

I still can't get my brain around Romero at 18...

 

My prediction:

Walker falls to the mid 20's next year

Harrison does not make the list next year

Santana is off th list next year because he plays for the Twins

Polanco becomes the teams number 1 prospect next year - assuming Buxton and Sano lose prospect status.

[MichiganTwins]

Interesting, I don't think Polanco will pass Stewart. I think Stewart is gonna have a good year as will Polanco. He seems to be coming on strong in the rankings and hopefully most of the op guys are playing for the Twins. (besides Stewart of course) Also, Harrison is going to have a terrible year (or traded) if he is off this list.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Seth: I have enjoyed reading this series. While, I have been following baseball for about55 years, I don't have your expertise in ranking prospects. I also wonder if it really matters how you rank Sano, Rosario and Meyer (2-4)--we all hope they all will be up sometime in 2014 and contributing. I have also seen many hyped prospects have decent careers (starting with the guy we called Loop Narc in college--Eddie Kranepool who was supposd to be the next Lou Gehrig--they went to the same HS--but turned out to have a Cuddyer like career--which was better than a kid named Chilcott--a catcher drafted 1st overall right ahead of Reggie Jackson who never made it).

 

In any case, I group prospects as follows:

First wave (along with Hicks and Arcia) Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer and Pinto

Possible additions (ranked 6-9) AB Walker, Harrison, May and Polanco (and maybe Santana)

The cavalry (pitchers who may start arriving in 2016 but most wont make it--hopefully one is an ace) Stewart, Gonsalves, Berrios, Thorpe, T. Rogers, Duffey, Sulbarin, B. Lee

Others with a chance for2016 or 2017: Goodrum, Kepler, DJ Hicks...

[Thrylos]

This guy does not belong in here because of age/performance/level/lack of tools combination. I suspect if he were from NJ instead of MN, he would not be in the list:

 

#45 – Mike Kvasnicka – Ft. Myers – OF (24)

 

Many better choices out there; I'd take Dan Rohlfing who at the same age, did better in New Britain and played up to AAA last season...

 

And what an unfortunate trade if you see what Sanudo did in the Houston system...

[lightfoot789]

My prediction:

Walker falls to the mid 20's next year

Harrison does not make the list next year

Polanco becomes the teams number 1 prospect next year

 

No way Polanco rises above Stewart. The same way Rosario will never be number #1. A position player has to have some type of Power tool to make it to number #1 no matter how talented they may be. The rankers would rather put a Pitcher there before they would do that. If a team has a talented non power threat at number #1 - their farm system is not considered in high regards. My opinion.

 

Harrison has too nice of a swing and is too young to fall off that quickly. The tools are there to deserve at least 2 more years on list. As far as Walker is concerned - His Power tool is too outstanding to drop that far. He has shown it works in games and would also deserve at least 2 more years to convince the Twins it was a fluke. Tools prevent those type of drop offs and Major Tools (Power; Defense; Speed; etc.) definitely prevent those type of drop offs. There is always the "We can fix it" menality when it comes to Major Tools (70-80 scale). Besides - If it aint broke don't fix it

[cmb0252]

Alex Meyer looked pretty good tonight. 5 innings, 63 pitches, no hits, 6Ks and one BB. Fastball 94-98 and worked mostly around 96-97. Very impressive.

 

Note: Meyer actually faced three more batters. Went 5 2/3, gave up a hit, and struck out one more. Hit 97 on his 76th and final pitch. Longest outing of the fall league for any pitcher.

[Vzltwins]

Where is Ibarra?

[lee_the_twins_fan]

I don't know – but the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Interesting move for someone who is not on Seth's 50-man prospect list. But then Ibarra basically came in from nowhere.

[clutterheart]

Where is Ibarra?

 

I think he wasn't technically "a twin" when Seth built this list.

[clutterheart]

No way Polanco rises above Stewart. The same way Rosario will never be number #1. A position player has to have some type of Power tool to make it to number #1 no matter how talented they may be. The rankers would rather put a Pitcher there before they would do that. If a team has a talented non power threat at number #1 - their farm system is not considered in high regards. My opinion.

 

Harrison has too nice of a swing and is too young to fall off that quickly. The tools are there to deserve at least 2 more years on list. As far as Walker is concerned - His Power tool is too outstanding to drop that far. He has shown it works in games and would also deserve at least 2 more years to convince the Twins it was a fluke. Tools prevent those type of drop offs and Major Tools (Power; Defense; Speed; etc.) definitely prevent those type of drop offs. There is always the "We can fix it" menality when it comes to Major Tools (70-80 scale). Besides - If it aint broke don't fix it

 

Polanco - he slugged .452 and showed a decent eye. Pretty good for a guy who started the year as a 19 year old. I am very high on him and think he could end the year at AA if his defense is good enough.

Stewart is good. But in my opinion for a pitching prospect to be #1 he has to be at AA or above.

 

Walker - he has too many strike outs and not enough walks. From what I have heard/read looked over matched against low A breaking balls. A player who went to college who still struggles with SO, tells me he is guy who struggles to change his approach. I hope I am wrong as he does appear to hit straight fastballs a long way.

 

Harrison - he hit poorly this year and from the reports I read looked bad in the field. He should start at CR next year until he shows he can hit. Again, I hope I'm wrong.

[pierre75275]

I feel that even though Jorge Palonco and and Max Kepler are good prospects they are ranked too high. I felt the Adam Walker and Josmil Pinto should have been ranked higher mayb flip flopped with polonco and Kepler. But that is admittedly bein picky

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins are considered better offensively than from the mound in current mainstream rankings, yet you ranked so many pitchers (almost half) in the top 50.

 

Two items of discussions: Do batter move up in the system faster than pitchers.

 

 

I'll take a stab at this. In the prospect world there's a saying TNSTAAPP (There's no such thing as a pitching prospect). Pitchers get hurt and flame out much easier as the move up... at least that's my guess. They also start out with promise and transition to a reliever. One really good example of that in recent Twins history is Hudson Boyd. He was on a few top 10 lists and pretty much universally in the top 20 when he was drafted. Right now we hope he can become a decent back of the pen option.

 

Second, pitchers with upside are going to get ranked higher. It's the most important position in the game and having more good pitching than you have pitchers is the easiest way to fill gaps with high ceiling talent at other positions. Pitchers are like gold.

 

In the Twins case it's compounded by the fact that they have a lot of high ceiling guys way low in the minors. If guys like Stewart, Gonsalves, and Thrope all continue on at Cedar Rapids where they left off in rookie ball, they will all likely be in the top 100 by the end of the year. Of course history says that only one of them will likely make it big. Here's to hoping history is wrong and we have a trio of top of the rotation starters in 4 years.

[Seth Stohs]

This guy does not belong in here because of age/performance/level/lack of tools combination. I suspect if he were from NJ instead of MN, he would not be in the list:

 

 

 

Many better choices out there; I'd take Dan Rohlfing who at the same age, did better in New Britain and played up to AAA last season...

 

And what an unfortunate trade if you see what Sanudo did in the Houston system...

 

Agree to disagree. I really like Dan, great guy, and he's got some value as an athletic catcher and capable corner OF, great team guy, etc.

 

Kvasnicka has been hurt a lot, but he's consistently shown power. At 45 or so, I'll take a plus-tool like that.

[Seth Stohs]

Where is Ibarra?

 

He was strongly considered for a spot in the 40-50 range, but didn't quite make it. As I've done more research and more scouting reports and such, he should be in that range.

[Seth Stohs]

Let's get some people's Top 20s here in the Comments... I'm curious what others would do.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't know – but the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Interesting move for someone who is not on Seth's 50-man prospect list. But then Ibarra basically came in from nowhere.

 

I was glad that Ibarra was added to the 40 man roster. I called it a month ago. He's got great stuff, left-handed, some strikeout stuff. But, I generally have relievers ranked lower because, at best, they pitch like 50-60 innings a year (a LOOGY could throw less than 40-50 innings). A #3 or #4 starter will throw 160-180 innings. But don't get me wrong, I think that he will pitch for the Twins, and I think he can be a valuable piece to the Twins bullpen. I've seen him pitch. He can be very good.

[lightfoot789]

Walker - he has too many strike outs and not enough walks. From what I have heard/read looked over matched against low A breaking balls. A player who went to college who still struggles with SO, tells me he is guy who struggles to change his approach. I hope I am wrong as he does appear to hit straight fastballs a long way.

 

Walker struck out at a 20% rate, which is great for a guy who led the league in HRs and RBIs. How many Top Prospects (nationally) can say they had a K rate of 20% or lower and led the league in HRs and RBI? I agree that he needs to take more walks (no arguement). That said however: Despite his low walk rate - He was on base enough to rank second in the entire league in runs scored. That means he scored more than Polanco, Harirson, & Goodrum - all of whom had higher OBP. That's not knocking those 3 (all great players) , but just signifying that your wants for Walker are based on hear say - not results from the here and now. Isn't the concern for a higher OBP to score more runs as a team. He seems to be doing his share of scoring & driving in runs, while also dropping his K rate over 10% in 1 season. I find more room for optimism than doubt if you ask me. Just saying ..

[Chance]

20. Baxendale

19. Z. Jones

18. T. Rodgers

17. Goodrum

16. Harrison

15. Kepler

14. May

13. Vargas

12. Santana

11. Walker

10. Polanco

09. Berrios

08. Gonsalves

07. Pinto

06. Thorpe

05. Stewart

04. Rosario

03. Meyer

02. Sano

01. Buxton

[lightfoot789]

1) Buxton

2) Sano

3) Meyer

4) Rosario

5) Stewart

6) Pinto

7) Walker

8) Polanco

9) Berrios

10) Thorpe

11) May

12) Santana

13) Kepler

14) Harrison

15) Brett Lee (sleeper)

16) Jorge

17) Gonsalves

18) Rogers

19) Vargas

20) Melotakis

[Chance]

I do like Melotakis up higher. Nice group. Is there any particular reason you have Lee at 15? I don't know a great deal about him. Are you thinking he makes it as a starter or that he will be a closer soon?