Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: Summary

[Thrylos]

Let's get some people's Top 20s here in the Comments... I'm curious what others would do.

 

Something like this, and with a surprise name in the bottom:

 

1. Sano

2. Buxton

3. Meyer

4. Rosario

5. Steward

6. May

7. Berrios

8. F. Jose

9. Kepler

10. Gonsalves

11. Eaves

12. Walker

13. Harrison

14. Minier

15. Baxendale

16. Vargas

17. Polanco

18. Thorpe

19. Z. Jones

20. Brian Gilbert (RHP)

 

 

Pinto and Tonkin graduated. Almost included 17 yo Venezuelan Alexis Tapia, who is probably the best of the Twins' DSL pitchers and might make the jump to the US this spring training.

[Jim H]

I am not going to submit a ranking. Largely I don't know enough, plus I don't think exact rankings matter much since so much of the rankings are based on projection and certain personal biases. That doesn't mean I don't find them interesting and I do have a few observations based on Seth's rankings.

 

Although many people consider starting pitching a weakness in the Twins system, I am not so sure that is true. Among the top 20 prospects(according to Seth) are 9 starting pitchers. There are 8 more pitchers in the next ten. A lot of these guys, if they make the majors at all, will end up in relief. Still, if we agree that position players are a strength of the system, it is interesting that so many pitchers are that high. It is even more interesting that 2 guys ranked very high just a couple of years ago(Wimmers and Salcedo) are now ranked 40 and below. Although both have had serious injuries, they are only 24 and 22 respectively, and there is reason to believe that both could regain their former effectiveness. That both are so low, speaks to the perceived strength of the organization's pitching.

 

People also suggest that though some of the pitching could be very good, it also very young and very far away from the majors. I believe that is partly true. Very good pitchers can and usually do, move up a system and to the majors quicker than comparable position players. Or at least that is often true. Baker, Slowey, and Henricks all moved to the majors quickly, even though I would hesitate to call any of them very good. If some of these young pitchers have the kind of stuff that many suggest they do, they could move very quickly. There are also some guys without the dominant stuff, who were pitching at A Ball this year, who could move quickly because they know how to pitch and their secondary pitches are pretty refined.

 

One of the interesting things about lists like this, is that it all about upside. There are guys not on this list or near the bottom of this list, who will make the majors and perhaps perform significant roles for their teams. Guys in the Twins system like that could include Beresford, Ibarra, Turner, Kvasnicka and few more pitchers who likely will end up in relief.

 

I do like the position players in the top half of this list. I am rather encouraged that a number of them are middle infielders, another area that is often considered a weakness in the Twins system.

 

Finally, thanks again Seth, for your list. I appreciate your work.

[Thrylos]

Although many people consider starting pitching a weakness in the Twins system, I am not so sure that is true. Among the top 20 prospects(according to Seth) are 9 starting pitchers. There are 8 more pitchers in the next ten. A lot of these guys, if they make the majors at all, will end up in relief. Still, if we agree that position players are a strength of the system, it is interesting that so many pitchers are that high..

 

I think that it is all relative. Only Meyer (really) has top of the rotation potential. Steward possibly, but he has to pitch a few innings more and not against kids who just grabbed wooden bats for their first time in their lives, to really cement that potential. Other than that we are talking about back of the rotation starters, and the 2011-3 Twins are prime examples of what happens when you fill a team with back of the rotation starters.

 

The other reason that so many pitchers are so high, is that other than in the top 5 or so, there are not really any exceptional position player prospects. Even the top of the second tier of position prospects are close to average minor leaguers (like C/C+ prospects) at this point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Let's get some people's Top 20s here in the Comments... I'm curious what others would do.

 

To lazy to repost.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/8796-top-20-prospect-lists.html

[cmb0252]

If I was going to make an official list it might be different but this is from off the top of my head:

 

1) Buxton

2) Sano

3) Stewart

4) Meyer

5) Rosario

6) Berrios

7) Kepler

8) Thorpe

9) Pinto

10) May

11) Polanco

12) Harrison

13) Gonsalves

14) Eades

15) Walker

16) Santana

17) Jorge

18) Romero

19) Goodrum

20) Minier

[cmb0252]

I think that it is all relative. Only Meyer (really) has top of the rotation potential. Steward possibly, but he has to pitch a few innings more and not against kids who just grabbed wooden bats for their first time in their lives, to really cement that potential. Other than that we are talking about back of the rotation starters, and the 2011-3 Twins are prime examples of what happens when you fill a team with back of the rotation starters.

 

The other reason that so many pitchers are so high, is that other than in the top 5 or so, there are not really any exceptional position player prospects. Even the top of the second tier of position prospects are close to average minor leaguers (like C/C+ prospects) at this point.

 

I don't understand not giving Stewart credit for his current tools regardless of the competition he has played. He has a perfect pitchers frame and is insanely athletic. His fastball consistently sits in the 92-94 and can hit 97 with good downward plane. Has an already plus slider with two more pitches that look to be big league average. Yeah, he doesn't have polish, but how many pitchers regardless of level have two already plus pitches and two that are average? Not very many.

[Jim H]

I think that it is all relative. Only Meyer (really) has top of the rotation potential. Steward possibly, but he has to pitch a few innings more and not against kids who just grabbed wooden bats for their first time in their lives, to really cement that potential. Other than that we are talking about back of the rotation starters, and the 2011-3 Twins are prime examples of what happens when you fill a team with back of the rotation starters.

 

The other reason that so many pitchers are so high, is that other than in the top 5 or so, there are not really any exceptional position player prospects. Even the top of the second tier of position prospects are close to average minor leaguers (like C/C+ prospects) at this point.

 

Fair enough, but 2008-2010 are examples of what you can do without any top of the rotation starters. If all of your starters are pretty good, you can end up with a 95 win season like 2010. Of course the rest of team has to be better than pretty good and your defense and bullpen better be darn good as well.

 

I just think that having a bunch of c/c+ pitching prospects is a good thing. Some could jump up and be better than that and if they do, they will move fast.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

The 2013 Twins starting pitchers, however, ranked dead-last among MLB teams; that means they don't have many C/C+ starting pitchers on staff – they're mostly even lower.

 

We need at least three FA starters acquired this winter, and better ones than Correa and Pelfrey, if the Twins are to make a move in 2014.

[MichiganTwins]

1) Buxton 2) Sano 3) Meyer 4) Stewart 5) Rosario 6)Berrios 7)POlanco 8)Pinto 9)Kepler 10)Thorpe 11)May 12)Gonsalves 13)Walker 14)Harrison 15)Danny Santana 16)Vargas 17)Tonkin 18)Eades 19)Niko 20)Felix Jorge

[Shane Wahl]

I still can't get my brain around Romero at 18...

 

My prediction:

Walker falls to the mid 20's next year

Harrison does not make the list next year

Santana is off th list next year because he plays for the Twins

Polanco becomes the teams number 1 prospect next year - assuming Buxton and Sano lose prospect status.

 

I predict that none of those things happen.

[lightfoot789]

See some of the prospects you have written about in the Kernels Season Game Highlights

[Polanco, Kepler, Walker, Goodrum, Harrison, Lee, Berrios, Melotakis, DJ HIcks, JD Williams, Duffy, Murphy, etc. ]

 

KernelsHighlightsABW

and

 

KernelsPartyattheParkTeam/GameHIghlights

[AlwaysinModeration]

Ok, I know nothing, but I will play, too:

 

1-Buxton

2-Sano

3-Meyer

(Gibson)

4-Stewart

('14 pick Kolek/Trea Turner/Gatewood)

(Arcia)

5-Rosario

(Hicks)

6-Gonsalves

7-Kepler

8-Berrios

9-Walker

10-Thorpe

11-Polanco

12-Pinto

13-Santana

14-Jorge

15-Baxendale

16-Eades

17-Rosario

18-JD Williams

19-Wimmers

20-Minier

[shs_59]

Alex Meyer looked pretty good tonight. 5 innings, 63 pitches, no hits, 6Ks and one BB. Fastball 94-98 and worked mostly around 96-97. Very impressive.

 

Note: Meyer actually faced three more batters. Went 5 2/3, gave up a hit, and struck out one more. Hit 97 on his 76th and final pitch. Longest outing of the fall league for any pitcher.

 

THANK U CMB0252 !

 

WOW this has me wet with excitement :-)

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Here is my list, for what it's worth. The A+ to D scale after each name is NOT a standard grade scale. It is a readiness for the Major Leagues scale, in my opinion. A+ indicates someone who is already on the Major League team – and is serviceable. a scale of A means the prospect is ready for the Twins. The lower the scale, to D, means the more time will have to be spent in the minor leagues. Roughly each letter reflects an expected one year in the minors.

 

1-Buxton – A-

2-Sano – B+

3-Meyer – A-

4-Stewart – C+

5-Rosario – A-

6-Gonsalves – D

7-Kepler – D

8-Berrios - C-

9-Walker – C

10-Thorpe – D

11-Polanco - C+

12-Pinto - A+

13-Santana – A-

14-May – C

15-Jorge – C

16-Baxendale – C-

17-JD Williams – C-

18-Romero – C-

19-Harrison – C

20-Goodrum – C-

20-Vargas - D

 

I like some context in such lists. Top 50 lists are great, but I also like to think about how close they are to helping the ML team.

 

Oh, by the way, Kyle Gibson and Aaron Hicks would be ranked about 8th and 10th, with a rating of A- (they each need at least a half year in AAA). Arcia is already on the team. I don't anticipate that changing anytime soon.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like Buxton, but he's not ML ready... yet.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

I agree... I rated him A-, meaning he needs a little time – less than a year – in the minors.

[clutterheart]

I like Buxton, but he's not ML ready... yet.

 

Maybe. Its easy to say "not ready" but harder to say why. It would be interesting to know why you think that.

His speed, approach at the plate, defense, power & batting eye suggest that he is pretty darn close.

 

We will know in 7 - 8 months after extended AA action.

[Shane Wahl]

Buxton played in essentially an AA all-star league just now and was OK. He needs months at AA so the A- grade is justified.

 

Ibarra could push himself up into the top 50 (came close for me) but there are injury cases like Wimmers, Roberts, and Bard who stick around on such lists. Also no LOOGY is really ever going to come close to a top prospect even if he is more likely to be contributing to the Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't understand not giving Stewart credit for his current tools regardless of the competition he has played. He has a perfect pitchers frame and is insanely athletic. His fastball consistently sits in the 92-94 and can hit 97 with good downward plane. Has an already plus slider with two more pitches that look to be big league average. Yeah, he doesn't have polish, but how many pitchers regardless of level have two already plus pitches and two that are average? Not very many.

 

I seem to remember reading a write up on him that said he had 4 plus pitches, or perhaps it was 4 potential plus pitches... Stewart will likely be a top of the rotation asset if he makes it there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Maybe. Its easy to say "not ready" but harder to say why. It would be interesting to know why you think that.

His speed, approach at the plate, defense, power & batting eye suggest that he is pretty darn close.

 

We will know in 7 - 8 months after extended AA action.

 

He didn't exactly dominate the AFL, which is AA level. He's a great prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he doesn't spend any time in MN this year.

[golfboy1]

It's a much better group of prospects than 5 years ago. I would rank Kepler a little lower & bump up Pinto & May a few spots but that's just personal preference.

 

On the bottom end I would eliminate Ortiz & a couple of others & add Malinowski, Ibarra & Stirewalt. I'm also a little surprised Hudson Boyd fell completely off the list so fast. I know his stats weren't very good but I thought his stuff was still ok. He had a decent 2nd half of the season & he's still pretty young so I have hope for him yet

[cmb0252]

I seem to remember reading a write up on him that said he had 4 plus pitches, or perhaps it was 4 potential plus pitches... Stewart will likely be a top of the rotation asset if he makes it there.

 

Stewart currently has two plus pitches and two average pitches. With his age there is plenty of time for the two other pitches to progress.