2014 Rotation

[Oldgoat_MN]

Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

 

I'm a software consultant in the Twin Cities. My oldest account is a place I love to go work, for any number of reasons. Anyway, one of Josh's brothers works there.

 

We had one time a few years ago when we talked Josh & baseball. We pretty much never work together, but the president of the company knows what a baseball fan I am and got us to sit down together.

He is clearly proud of his brother, happy for his success. We talked about Dan Uggla being traded to Atlanta. He said Josh and the other young players then were upset because Dan was such a great guy and very helpful to all the young guys. (fit with other things I've read about Uggla)

So, I don't know if he has season tix. I know he would go see the Brewers or the Cubs if the Marlins were rolling through. Perfect storm if Josh was pitching in both Milwaukee & Chicago.

 

I don't know if Josh has more family here, though I very much had that impression at the time. It wasn't an interview.

 

Josh's brother is a good guy. So there.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have enough money to spend that I'd like them to do what the Cubs did last year. Go out right away and overpay for a guy. Set the bar high and let the other teams curse the Twins for doing so.

 

It would also be a sign to all free agents that the Twins are serious which would probably make other guys more willing to come, particularly the few bargains that are left hanging at the end of free agency for what ever reason.

[Siehbiscuit]

One area in its philosophy that I will guarantee that the Twins will not step too far away from is pitchers durability. Pelfrey and Pavano are the only outliers from this philosophy, but the Twins thought they might catch lightning in a bottle and the original contracts were very short, I believe 1-year deals. I can see the Twins evaluating the FA pitchers like this, only based on their ability to "eat" innings.

 

Good gambles:

Masahiro Tanaka

Ervin Santana

Ubaldo Jimenez

Phil Hughes

Tim Lincecum (Twins won't go here due to price, not health)

 

Poor gambles:

Scott Kazmir (very risky gamble. Twins will NOT go here).

Dan Haren

Josh Johnson

 

Personally, I would love to see the Twins acquire these pitchers, in this order:

Tier 1

1. Tanaka (he's mid-20's and has is entering his prime)

2. Ubaldo Jimenez (his "stuff" is the best on the market)

3. Ervin Santana (not an ace, but provides stability)

Tier 2

1. Phil Hughes (Very talented and still only 27)

2. Josh Johnson (Very talented, but needs to stay healthy. Worth a gamble)

3. Dan Haren (Proven pitcher that has struggled. Great buy-low candidate. Max of 2-yrs, may have to stretch it to 3, because we are the Twins).

[ashbury]

Go out right away and overpay for a guy.

 

They did that last off-season. Correia.

[diehardtwinsfan]

HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

[kab21]

HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

 

Usually guys looking for this type of deal want to be on a playoff contender for the extra exposure. Like Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren.

[nicksaviking]

They did that last off-season. Correia.

 

He didn't sign until the second week of December, and because the Twins signed him neither early nor late, they were FORCED to overpay him. The Cubs went out and set the tone for the off season by being quick to sign Baker and Feldman.

 

I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

[nicksaviking]

HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

 

I'm in the same boat, but I didn't think any club would give hiim more than two years regardless of what Lincecum wanted. Now when he gets a qualifying offer and insists on one year he looks even worse. Who wants to give up the 2nd round pick for one season of Lincecum in a Twins uniform in 2014?

[ThePuck]

He didn't sign until the second week of December, and because the Twins signed him neither early nor late, they were FORCED to overpay him. The Cubs went out and set the tone for the off season by being quick to sign Baker and Feldman.

 

I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

 

Wasn't it Correia Ryan was talking about when he said he left money on the table? If we believe that, and someone else was willing to pay him even more, doesn't that mean Correia wasn't overpaid? :-)

[Physics Guy]

I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

 

I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.

 

I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.

[JustinCB]

 

Personally, I would love to see the Twins acquire these pitchers, in this order:

Tier 1

1. Tanaka (he's mid-20's and has is entering his prime)

 

 

Tanaka is already being perceived as the best available FA pitcher this off season. Somebody is going to outspend the Twins.

[#24 Sano]

I know this thread is about SP but we don't need a 1B.

 

We have Mauer there. It doesn't take a genius to figure out he's the face of the twins, we want him safe and healthy, look to have him at 1st this season. He has a great bat in the lineup and we prefer to have him in the lineup more. Now that we have Pinto up we should look to make Mauer into a full time 1st Basemen. He could move back to catch in desperate situations like if Pinto, Hermann and Doumit get injured.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, Tanaka is a pipe dream at this point. The posting fee does not count against the soft cap, so why would we expect not to be outbid? I've stopped even considering him an option in my hopes for the offseason.

[Major League Ready]

I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.

 

You may very well be correct that 2/20-22M will not get it done. It's a real crap shoot. The splits you put are an attention grabber. Should we believe he will back to the form he was in his prime or is he an aging SP that will continue to decline? The latter is more likely.

 

Let's say he matches his production for the total 2013 season and falls off in 2015 and then a little more in 2016 as you might expect from an aging SP. His war was 1.5 in 2013 and his ERA was 4.67. If he performs like he did the last 1/2 of the season it would be a great signing. If his production matches the year as a whole we will wishing we had the payroll space back in 2015 & 2016. If he slides at all, the same people calling for aggression just might be cursing Ryan up and down.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm in the same boat, but I didn't think any club would give hiim more than two years regardless of what Lincecum wanted. Now when he gets a qualifying offer and insists on one year he looks even worse. Who wants to give up the 2nd round pick for one season of Lincecum in a Twins uniform in 2014?

 

Has SF come out and said they are giving him a QO? I honestly don't see it. He certainly hasn't been 14M good for a couple years now, and if SF wants to pay him that much, and he wants a short term deal, I see nothing preventing him from accepting it, sans perhaps him asking for an agreement not to do the same next year. I agree with you here, he's going to have a tough time finding work if a 2nd round pick is being added to the discussion.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, I don't see SF offering the QO. I also agree, giving up a pick will reduce the demand significantly.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.

 

I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.

 

I'll bite. I think Tanaka could be fit (whether they spend the money is a different story). They have 40 million or something like that they could spend.

 

Tanaka (5/50 with option plus a 50M posting fee). That comes out to 20M/year

Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.

Gibson

Worley

Correia.

 

That's 32.5M being spent to massively upgrade the rotation. I suspect Gibson will have a much better season and KC is well... KC. Worley, KC, or Gibson likely finds themselves being replaced by Meyer, May, and/or Darnell at one point in the near future.

 

You could substitute Hughes for Johnson or Lincicum, though both of them are going to be 1 or 2 year deals for a lot less cash. I'm not excited about Haren at all. I doubt Garza will want to return, and maybe I'm a bit queasy, but I think Santana's contract is one someone will be regretting quickly. Personally, I wouldn't give up a second round pick for anyone. In a deep draft, that's still a high enough pick to bring home an impact player. We can start talking about that when they in the plug a few holes phase.

[ThePuck]

Why would we consider Tanaka's posting fee as part of payroll from 2014-18?

[Major League Ready]

Why would we consider Tanaka's posting fee as part of payroll from 2014-18?

 

I am not sure how the IRS would interpret a posting fee but the Twins can't just recognize it in whatever manner they elect. My educated guess is that GAAP would dictate the expense be recognized over the life of the asset. In this case, the term of the contract.

[Thrylos]

They did that last off-season. Correia.

 

And the season before last: Capps

And the season before that: Pavano

And the season before that: Blackburn

[ThePuck]

I am not sure how the IRS would interpret a posting fee but the Twins can't just recognize it in whatever manner they elect. My educated guess is that GAAP would dictate the expense be recognized over the life of the asset. In this case, the term of the contract.

 

It's my understanding that the money for the posting fee doesn't go towards payroll in regards to luxury tax (read that in an article about Yankees pursuing Tanaka and how it isn't included)

 

New York Yankees begin organizational meetings | yankees.com: News

 

'The Yankees' interest in Tanaka is helped by the fact that the posting fee, which is likely to surpass the $51.7 million that Texas paid to negotiate with Darvish in January 2012, would not count against the luxury tax. '

 

So, knowing that, not not sure why we'd include it as part of payroll for the next five years either. Seems we have some money left over from payroll this year to at least help the fee needed if we were going to go that route.

[Kwak]

Why on earth should we care about the accounting of a posting fee? The owner says "SPEND"--let's sit back back, wait, and find out how serious is this directive.

[Physics Guy]

I'll bite. I think Tanaka could be fit (whether they spend the money is a different story). They have 40 million or something like that they could spend.

 

Tanaka (5/50 with option plus a 50M posting fee). That comes out to 20M/year

Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.

Gibson

Worley

Correia.

 

That's 32.5M being spent to massively upgrade the rotation. I suspect Gibson will have a much better season and KC is well... KC. Worley, KC, or Gibson likely finds themselves being replaced by Meyer, May, and/or Darnell at one point in the near future.

 

You could substitute Hughes for Johnson or Lincicum, though both of them are going to be 1 or 2 year deals for a lot less cash. I'm not excited about Haren at all. I doubt Garza will want to return, and maybe I'm a bit queasy, but I think Santana's contract is one someone will be regretting quickly. Personally, I wouldn't give up a second round pick for anyone. In a deep draft, that's still a high enough pick to bring home an impact player. We can start talking about that when they in the plug a few holes phase.

 

I don't dispute that the Twins can afford Tanaka. I just think Ryan will have difficulties finding the nerve to throw $100M at anyone. I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).

[#24 Sano]

I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).

 

Tanaka will most likly not be 20mil, due to the fact his comparison (Yu Darvish) got only 9.5 mil per year. Of course though with the success of Darvish will help bring the value higher priced maybe 11-16mil at highest, but there are the dodgers who have so much money it's falling out of there pockets they would be the team to hand him 20mil.

[ThePuck]

Why on earth should we care about the accounting of a posting fee? The owner says "SPEND"--let's sit back back, wait, and find out how serious is this directive.

 

We might care because if the team actually decides to spend the percentage on payroll they normally would, as explained by Jim Pohlad, and the posting fee gets spread out on payroll over the next 5 years, it means less talent to be able to get.

[ChuckPaine]

Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.

 

There is no way that Hughes is worth 12.5M a year, try more like 6M a year

[Major League Ready]

It's my understanding that the money for the posting fee doesn't go towards payroll in regards to luxury tax (read that in an article about Yankees pursuing Tanaka and how it isn't included)

 

New York Yankees begin organizational meetings | yankees.com: News

 

'The Yankees' interest in Tanaka is helped by the fact that the posting fee, which is likely to surpass the $51.7 million that Texas paid to negotiate with Darvish in January 2012, would not count against the luxury tax. '

 

So, knowing that, not not sure why we'd include it as part of payroll for the next five years either. Seems we have some money left over from payroll this year to at least help the fee needed if we were going to go that route.

 

Puck,

 

The fact that MLB does not count posting fees against the luxury tax is an entirely separate matter. The expense does not go away. It is payroll expense. Fans might want to ignore it as if it does not count but the Twins and any other business is not going to pretend it did not happen. There could be a question as to when it is recognized but as I wrote earlier, there are IRS requirements where this is concerned.

 

If it were allowed, and they wanted to recognize the expense this year, the total posting fee and salary would be attributed to 2013 expense. In other words, signing Tanaka and recognizing the posting fee this year would probably require the entire 2013 budget. That would not be the worst move long-term. Sign Tanaka and resign Pelfrey and look forward to having substantial budget in 2015 to continue building. It would give us an extra 8-10M/year over the rest of the Tanaka contract to build a team. I just don't think they can do it that way.

[MinnesotaMike]

I think people are way off the mark when thinking about possible starters for next year. I can't see us signing anyone but I do think they will add through trades. Guys I think would be available would be Trevor Cahill in Arizona with guys like Bradley and Skaggs ready next year. Maybe a guy like Erasmo Ramirez in Seattle with walker, hultzen and Paxton ready. Maybe Brett Anderson in Oakland. Whoever it is I think will be a player no one is really talking about right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I am not sure how the IRS would interpret a posting fee but the Twins can't just recognize it in whatever manner they elect. My educated guess is that GAAP would dictate the expense be recognized over the life of the asset. In this case, the term of the contract.

 

I'm not an accountant, but the Twins could choose to amortize this out or recognize it as a 1 time hit. Companies do this all the time.. I'd add that it really doesn't matter how it shows on the books, it matters who the Twins want to allocate it towards payroll. The posting fee may be amortized out over the life of the contract for tax purposes, but since they didn't spend the allocated payroll in 2013, they might choose to privately count it as last year's money.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There is no way that Hughes is worth 12.5M a year, try more like 6M a year

 

I hope you are right, but he's getting a 3 or 4 year deal, it won't be for Corriea money.