Twin Lincecum?

MinnesotaMike · October 19, 2013

Lincecum likes SF too much to leave. Kind of a goofy dude and the city fits him perfectly.

And tbf the whole "weed is legal in WA har har" line is a moot point considering we are talking about him leaving SAN FRANCISCO.

I just don't see the giants wanting to have Lincecum back unless he is on the cheap. Their next wave of good pitching prospects is right around the corner with crick, Stratton and Blackburn.

Otto von Ballpark · October 20, 2013

Lincecum likes SF too much to leave. Kind of a goofy dude and the city fits him perfectly.

And tbf the whole "weed is legal in WA har har" line is a moot point considering we are talking about him leaving SAN FRANCISCO.

Also, isn't marijuana part of MLB drug testing?

kab21 · October 20, 2013

haha. I love strike outs, but the rest of his stats say he's been pretty hittable when batters aren't whiffing at him, and they've been trending in the wrong direction for a while now. Sabermetrics might love him, but I think that this point we can get beyond the "he's unlucky" thing.

I wouldn't mind him for a reasonable price, but no way that price includes a second rounder in this deep of a draft and a huge contract on top of that.

Opponents have a .243 BA against so you're not actually using any stats to make your argument. 2012 was a bad season and then he improved his BB rate. The big thing that has hurt him the last two years is HR's but this is something with a sample size of 20/season.

And at the end of the day the Twins basically need to sign someone. Tanaka is likely getting 100+M. Garza isn't coming back. Kuroda is really old and he will resign with the Yankees. Hughes is someone that is intriguing but he has actually always performed. Josh Johnson pitches about 80 innings/season. Nolasco has always underperformed. Haren has really gone backwards and has fairly mediocre stuff if you watch him. Pretty soon you will find yourself shopping in the Correia/Saunders/Blanton neighborhood. If these questions didn't exist about Lincecum he would be getting a 100+M contract.

Kwak · October 20, 2013

It's easy to find flaws in these pitchers--but then compare them to what the Twins have and the alternatives!

YourHouseIsMyHouse · October 20, 2013

I'm interested in Lincecum, but not for the price. A 2 year deal isn't great for us because we're not contenders in 2 years. If he mystically returned to form during his tenure, it's nothing more than a lengthy tryout. If he doesn't, he isn't even close to worth it. I don't see a good reason to lose out on a 2nd round pick (that has a fair chance of working out) and payroll for a lousy pitcher that's only asset is the strikeout. -2.3 WAR over the last two seasons doesn't look good. And do remember that this is the same team that couldn't fix Francisco Liriano. The only pitcher I'd give over 12 million a year to is Tanaka.

All together, I'd like Tanaka, Hughes, and Kazmir.

kab21 · October 20, 2013

It's easy to find flaws in these pitchers--but then compare them to what the Twins have and the alternatives!

That's kind of my point with Lincecum. The Twins absolutely have to sign someone this year and every option has flaws. the guys I like are Tanaka, Garza and Lincecum. It remains to be seen if the Twins will spend 100+M on Tanaka and I don't see any chance that Garza returns.

kab21 · October 20, 2013

The only pitcher I'd give over 12 million a year to is Tanaka.

If you aren't paying more than 12M/yr then you aren't getting a good pitcher and the Twins will be shopping in the Correia/Blanton/Saunders neighborhood.

TopGunn#22 · October 20, 2013

I agree 100% with MyHouseIsYourHouse: The best targets are in order:

Tanaka: Young, good stuff, could be a #1. Expensive, YES. But worth it.

Kazmir: He's 30. He looks like he's made it back. We couldn't hit him if our lives depended on it last year.

Hughes: Still young, has the ability to miss bats. Gives up too many HR's. Yankee Stadium doesn't help, Target Field will.

Josh Johnson intrigues me, but scares me. The guy just can't stay healthy.

Colby Lewis: Interesting, but I don't know enough about where he is at health-wise and whether the Rangers want him back.

Any way you slice and dice this. The Pohlads and Terry Ryan have to "show us the money." As Patrick Reusse said in an earlier column, they don't even appear to be trying. I would also love to see them get serious and sign the young Cuban SS. Good grief we need a SS!!!

DaveW · October 20, 2013

I'd say there is about a 90% chance Lincecum ends up in Seattle.

pierre75275 · October 20, 2013

Yes. I say go for it. But I think I would rather have kazmir and ubaldo from cleveland

Mike Sixel · October 21, 2013

I'd be up for Ubaldo also.

Siehbiscuit · October 22, 2013

One thing that many posters seem to be forgetting or missing is that the Twins don't have the luxury of saying, "I'm not going over 'x' years or 'x' dollars" and still hope to sign a one of the better FA pitchers. If the Twins really like Ubaldo and they feel that his worth (which is known to be very conserative) is 3 years and $36 million, they may need to go up to 4yrs and $50 to get him to come to MN. That can be said for many of these guys. IMO, the Twins best bets are to get in one guy like this (prefer Jimenez or Hughes as they have limited injury history) and then possibly two guys like Johnson ($6-7M) and Haren ($8-9M) on one year deals. The Twins won't completely handcuff themselves with more than one long-term overpay, if there's one at all.

mnfanforlife · October 22, 2013

Yeah, there is really no chance the Twins sign someone like Lincecum. A signing like that would look despereate (and TR has never acted out of desperation), and also set a franchise record for most $$ given to an outside free-agent. Twin Lincecum will not happen, sadly.

amjgt · October 22, 2013

I'd love to see a breakdown of the largest F.A. contract ever handed out by each team in MLB.

Twins have to be last, right?

Oakland?

Houston must have had a big one before the rebuild

Off the top of my head I can't think of a big one in Cinci (unless you count Chapman, but then you'd have to count Cespedes in Oakland)

Milwaukee has had some splashes, but really only in the trade market

San Diego?

amjgt · October 22, 2013

A very quick look here: ( 2012 MLB Baseball Free Agent Tracker - Major League Baseball - ESPN ) and I didn't find one above $21M for Oakland or San Diego. The list goes back to 2006

Cinci would be tied at $21M (Jonathan Broxton) if you don't count Chapman (which this list did)

I did find some forgettable signings from Milwaukee though

amjgt · October 22, 2013

[TABLE=width: 433]

Team

Years

Dollars

Player

Angels

10

250,000,000

Albert Pujols

Astros

6

100,000,000

Carlos Lee

Athletics

2

10,500,000

Brian Fuentes

Blue Jays

2

18,120,000

Frank Thomas

Braves

5

75,250,000

B.J. Upton

Brewers

4

42,000,000

Jeff Suppan

Cardinals

2

26,000,000

Carlos Beltran

Cubs

8

136,000,000

Alfonso Soriano

Diamondbacks

3

26,000,000

Cody Ross

Dodgers

6

147,000,000

Zack Greinke

Giants

7

126,000,000

Barry Zito

Indians

4

56,000,000

Nick Swisher

Mariners

4

48,000,000

Carlos Silva

Marlins

6

106,000,000

Jose Reyes

Mets

4

66,000,000

Jason Bay

Nationals

7

126,000,000

Jayson Werth

Orioles

3

20,000,000

Aubrey Huff

Padres

2

11,500,000

Orlando Hudson

Phillies

5

120,000,000

Cliff Lee

Pirates

2

17,000,000

Russell Martin

Rangers

6

96,000,000

Adrian Beltre

Rays

2

16,000,000

Pat Burrell

Red Sox

7

142,000,000

Carl Crawford

Reds

4

46,000,000

Francisco Cordero

Rockies

3

31,500,000

Michael Cuddyer

Royals

5

55,000,000

Gil Meche

Tigers

9

214,000,000

Prince Fielder

Twins

3

21,000,000

Josh Willingham

White Sox

4

56,000,000

Adam Dunn

Yankees

8

180,000,000

Mark Teixeira

[/TABLE]

Worth noting:

There are 6 teams with a lower "Highest paid free agent signing" than the Twins (A's, Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays)

Of those 6 teams, they all have a higher "per year highest paid FA" than the Twins (Willingham @ $7M per year), except for the Orioles (those contracts are not necessarily shown on this list)

This is only since 2006

Teams spent a lot of money in 2006 compared to the years that followed.

There were 33 contracts handed out in 2006 that exceeded $10,000,000. That is more than any year since (33,12,14,18,20,21,24)

Was there a new TV contract in 2006?

I've completely strayed off topic here, but it's interesting to me. Hopefully it's interesting to at least one other person.

amjgt · October 22, 2013

Answer to the 2006 TV contract question: Yes. A new lucrative contract was signed that year ( Fox, TBS have seven-year, $3 billion TV deal with MLB - MLB - ESPN )

Someone warn Terry Ryan

October 22, 2013

Thanks for the research, amjgt

stringer bell · October 22, 2013

Lincecum re-ups with the Gigantes--2 years, $35M!!??

rickyriolo · October 22, 2013

yes, Lincecum off the market and signed for "reasonable" 17.5 million per year. He made 22 mill this year

mnfanforlife · October 22, 2013

and that concludes this thread

cmb0252 · October 23, 2013

He gone

twinsfan34 · October 23, 2013

[TABLE=width: 433]
Team
Years
Dollars
Player
Angels
10
250,000,000
Albert Pujols
Astros
6
100,000,000
Carlos Lee
Athletics
2
10,500,000
Brian Fuentes
Blue Jays
2
18,120,000
Frank Thomas
Braves
5
75,250,000
B.J. Upton
Brewers
4
42,000,000
Jeff Suppan
Cardinals
2
26,000,000
Carlos Beltran
Cubs
8
136,000,000
Alfonso Soriano
Diamondbacks
3
26,000,000
Cody Ross
Dodgers
6
147,000,000
Zack Greinke
Giants
7
126,000,000
Barry Zito
Indians
4
56,000,000
Nick Swisher
Mariners
4
48,000,000
Carlos Silva
Marlins
6
106,000,000
Jose Reyes
Mets
4
66,000,000
Jason Bay
Nationals
7
126,000,000
Jayson Werth
Orioles
3
20,000,000
Aubrey Huff
Padres
2
11,500,000
Orlando Hudson
Phillies
5
120,000,000
Cliff Lee
Pirates
2
17,000,000
Russell Martin
Rangers
6
96,000,000
Adrian Beltre
Rays
2
16,000,000
Pat Burrell
Red Sox
7
142,000,000
Carl Crawford
Reds
4
46,000,000
Francisco Cordero
Rockies
3
31,500,000
Michael Cuddyer
Royals
5
55,000,000
Gil Meche
Tigers
9
214,000,000
Prince Fielder
Twins
3
21,000,000
Josh Willingham
White Sox
4
56,000,000
Adam Dunn
Yankees
8
180,000,000
Mark Teixeira
[/TABLE]

Worth noting:

There are 6 teams with a lower "Highest paid free agent signing" than the Twins (A's, Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays)

Of those 6 teams, they all have a higher "per year highest paid FA" than the Twins (Willingham @ $7M per year), except for the Orioles (those contracts are not necessarily shown on this list)

This is only since 2006

Teams spent a lot of money in 2006 compared to the years that followed.

There were 33 contracts handed out in 2006 that exceeded $10,000,000. That is more than any year since (33,12,14,18,20,21,24)

Was there a new TV contract in 2006?

I've completely strayed off topic here, but it's interesting to me. Hopefully it's interesting to at least one other person.

Ben Sheets had a 1yr $10M deal with the Athletics. Never even played. There's others. But that's only $10m total...so if total.

I guess, I'd have to say "free agent" would have to be players not previously on your team as Morneau and Mauer would kill that statistic and put us in the top 5-8 teams in terms of contracts per year value. Which, I believe is worth noting.

Mike Sixel · October 23, 2013

Holy cow, that is a lot of money for a guy that has not been good lately. Holy cow.

twinsfan34 · October 23, 2013

Lincecum is not worth $17.5M a year and Hunter Pence is not worth $18M a year.

SF market dictates prices (devalues money) at over 2x what it does to MSP.

I'd rather be a 'farm team' than teams that sign players that age and duration for contract anyway. What's exciting about Lincecum and Pence coming back and their best season behind them?

Mike Sixel · October 23, 2013

A very quick look here: ( 2012 MLB Baseball Free Agent Tracker - Major League Baseball - ESPN ) and I didn't find one above $21M for Oakland or San Diego. The list goes back to 2006

Cinci would be tied at $21M (Jonathan Broxton) if you don't count Chapman (which this list did)

I did find some forgettable signings from Milwaukee though

Must not include international free agents then.....since Cespedes signed for $33MM

twinsfan34 · October 23, 2013

Pence...

Giants overcommit to Hunter Pence | HardballTalk

Why the San Francisco Giants overpaid for Hunter Pence - MLB - ESPN

Is Hunter Pence Worth Huge $90 Million Contract from S.F. Giants? | Bleacher Report

Retarded.

Lincecum...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Lincecum clearly got the hometown gouge-count.</p>— Ray Ratto (@RattoCSN) <a href="

">October 22, 2013</a></blockquote>

Kawakami: San Francisco Giants overpay Tim Lincecum for a reason - San Jose Mercury News

"In a cold, clinical accounting of Tim Lincecum's true baseball value, his new two-year deal with the Giants for $35 million doesn't just seem high, it seems partially insane.

For two seasons, he has been a below-average starter in an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark. There's no getting around that unless you just want to imagine otherwise."

Read that last article if you read anything. Look at how the Giants spend and spend and yet, there's no hope there in the words of the beat writer.

October 23, 2013

Lincecum is not worth $17.5M a year and Hunter Pence is not worth $18M a year.

SF market dictates prices (devalues money) at over 2x what it does to MSP.

I'd rather be a 'farm team' than teams that sign players that age and duration for contract anyway. What's exciting about Lincecum and Pence coming back and their best season behind them?

This contract will be for Lincecum's age 30 and 31 seasons. He's three months older than Sam Deduno.

I can't speak for others, but I'd prefer to watch Lincecum over any of PJ Walters, Andrew Albers, Pedro Hernandez...

twinsfan34 · October 23, 2013

Buster Olney ✔ @Buster_ESPN In 2012-13, Lincecum had a 4.76 ERA, and his fastball velo dropped from 92.2 to 90.2. He gets 2/$35m; good guy, but that's a head-scratcher.

6:21 PM - 22 Oct 2013

twinsfan34 · October 23, 2013

If Lincecum gets 2 yr $35M...what does Garza get? 4yr $100M?

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