Tigers Trade for Closer - Perkins related

[Smcginnity]

So, the Tigers traded away their 4th best prospect (Danry Vasquez). He's a pretty darn good prospect from what I can tell. Young prospect that is raw but is holding his own in the Midwest League at age 19. Impressive.

 

So, the question is, what could the Twins get for Perkins in comparison? Perkins is a better player, younger, great contract, and an all-star. I think could/should be able to get a prospect like Danry Vasquez, another player like Danry, and a B level prospect. We'll see. At least it starts to portray a better picture for the return on a Perkins deal

[30whales]

The Twins aren't going to trade Perkins and everybody knows it.

[Smcginnity]

Umm...ok. Thanks for participating...

[TKGuy]

Wouldn't the Red Sox be the only destination possible for Perkins now? I guess the Yankees could use him as a setup man and then replace Rivera with Perk next year. However, the Yankees farm system pitchers have been hit by the injury bug and wouldn't be able to match up with the Twins.

[30whales]

I mean don't get me wrong I want them to but I just don't see them changing from recent years. Every year we talk about all these guys that we should trade to cash in on their value when its the highest and almost every year we never do cash in on it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Tigers system is pretty weak, so keep that in mind. 4th best prospect in Detroit is likely 10 in our system. 4th best prospect in Boston is 2nd best prospect in Detroit. I would expect a much better return than what Detroit gave up.

[Smcginnity]

I mean don't get me wrong I want them to but I just don't see them changing from recent years. Every year we talk about all these guys that we should trade to cash in on their value when its the highest and almost every year we never do cash in on it.

 

I completely agree with you. However, IF a trade does happen with Perkins, it would be nice to discuss it beforehand to know if they got good value when they make the trade. Meaning, if they only get one solid prospect for Perkins, I would now be disappointed because Veras is definitely not the same as Perkins. At the least, they should get two solid prospects based on this Tigers trade.

[Smcginnity]

Tigers system is pretty weak, so keep that in mind. 4th best prospect in Detroit is likely 10 in our system. 4th best prospect in Boston is 2nd best prospect in Detroit. I would expect a much better return than what Detroit gave up.

 

Valid point. It looks like this Vasquez guy would be more comparable to an Aderlin Mejia or Adam Walker type player (maybe). So, for Perkins, I would only be happy with a return of something like Alex Meyer and Kepler type return. However, I don't see that happening.

[nicksaviking]

I completely agree with you. However, IF a trade does happen with Perkins, it would be nice to discuss it beforehand to know if they got good value when they make the trade. Meaning, if they only get one solid prospect for Perkins, I would now be disappointed because Veras is definitely not the same as Perkins. At the least, they should get two solid prospects based on this Tigers trade.

 

Well there have been threads regarding this.

 

I would be willing to trade Perkins; I like him as a player and I'm proud the Twins have one of the best in the league, but closers are expendable and manufacturable. In fact, I'd like Ryan to get out front of a new movement and turn the Twins into a closer factory before other teams realize the con.

 

Trade one and just promote the next hardest throwing guy. Sometimes you get a Perkins, sometimes you get an Eddie Guardado. Maybe the next time you get a Mike Trombley, but then you just cast him aside and go on to the next guy. Not all closers are equal in terms of ability and dominance, but the results vary very little. Almost all of them regularly get the job done, most guys don't blow that many saves.

 

The difference between most closers and the other hard throwers in the bullpen is all too often just the title, however in a trade, having the title "closer" brings back a much bigger return.

[jorgenswest]

The Tigers were willing to give up a B- prospect (Sickels) to improve their closer spot.

 

How much more is Perkins worth? It is hard to evaluate relievers. His WAR is 0.7 (fangraphs) better in more than half a season, so maybe a 0.5 WAR improvement. They both have 3 blown saves but Perkins has 6 more opportunities.

 

Perkins value to the Twins is probably greater than his value to teams looking to improve their bullpens. The Tigers were able to acquire a good reliever for a guy that will probably never play in the major leagues.

[Boone]

Last year mlbtraderumors reported that one of the reasons the Twins had trouble finding a suitable trade partner for Josh Willingham was the fact that he had a multi-year contract when most teams were looking for expiring contracts (players who are essentially loaned). When you consider the Twins' history with Denard Span--shopping him at the deadline but not trading him until the offseason-- this seams like a very plausible explanation. My hope is that if the Twins don't trade Perkins before the deadline, they trade him this offseason.

 

Waiting until the offseason might have further value:

1. Perkins value could increase between now and the rest of the season due to his performance. Not only will it give him his first full season as a closer, but he will also have another dominant full season.

2. The Twins could promote a future closer (Tonkin?) and let them learn from Perkins for a few months.

[jokin]

 

I would be willing to trade Perkins; I like him as a player and I'm proud the Twins have one of the best in the league, but closers are expendable and manufacturable. In fact, I'd like Ryan to get out front of a new movement and turn the Twins into a closer factory before other teams realize the con.

 

Trade one and just promote the next hardest throwing guy. Sometimes you get a Perkins, sometimes you get an Eddie Guardado. Almost all of them regularly get the job done, most guys don't blow that many saves. The difference between most closers and the other hard throwers in the bullpen is all too often just the title.

 

I really feel you on your first paragraph. Perkins is perfect for the Twins and for Twinsland, but this is a business first and Ryan must strike with his hot iron before all of baseball figures out how inaccurate valuation models are for closers.

 

With regards to your second paragraph, your point is well taken. But.... Ron Davis is on Line 2, Jesse Orosco is on Line 3, they beg to differ.

[kab21]

Wouldn't the Red Sox be the only destination possible for Perkins now? I guess the Yankees could use him as a setup man and then replace Rivera with Perk next year. However, the Yankees farm system pitchers have been hit by the injury bug and wouldn't be able to match up with the Twins.

 

David Robertson says Hi.

 

Any combination of players similar to Danry Vazquez is an unacceptable return for Perkins.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law's take on the trade:

 

"He's a lottery ticket (Vasquez) for Houston, a guy with everyday upside if the strength ever comes, but a low-probability prospect until then. They're also getting a second player as a PTBNL, reportedly another good flier for the Astros, which will make this a very good return for two months of Veras plus an option year, especially since a closer is a needless luxury for a team en route to 100 losses.

 

This also removes one reliever with ninth-inning experience from the trade market, which probably leaves Kevin Gregg as the main Proven Closer who's definitely available in a trade -- a fact that should encourage the Phillies, Twins and perhaps the Rangers to explore the markets for their own closers in the next 48 hours."

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/1029/breaking-down-the-jose-veras-trade

[diehardtwinsfan]

Last year mlbtraderumors reported that one of the reasons the Twins had trouble finding a suitable trade partner for Josh Willingham was the fact that he had a multi-year contract when most teams were looking for expiring contracts (players who are essentially loaned). When you consider the Twins' history with Denard Span--shopping him at the deadline but not trading him until the offseason-- this seams like a very plausible explanation. My hope is that if the Twins don't trade Perkins before the deadline, they trade him this offseason.

 

Waiting until the offseason might have further value:

1. Perkins value could increase between now and the rest of the season due to his performance. Not only will it give him his first full season as a closer, but he will also have another dominant full season.

2. The Twins could promote a future closer (Tonkin?) and let them learn from Perkins for a few months.

 

There's something to be said about your point, but this isn't an apples to apples comparrison. For one, Perkins is insanely cheap for a closer. He's basically signed on at a reasonable rate for a relief pitcher. As well, his final year is an option, so if by chance he flops, he can be cut free.

 

I don't see Perkin's value possibly increasing over the offseason. He's been doing this proven closer thing for 2 seasons now and has been a dominant reliever for 3. His contract is very affordable too. My guess is that he hasn't been moved because no one wants to pay what Ryan wants for him.

[nicksaviking]

With regards to your second paragraph, your point is well taken. But.... Ron Davis is on Line 2, Jesse Orosco is on Line 3, they beg to differ.

 

No, I agree, you get a lemon once in awhile, but the track record of finding a closer, especially in the Twins case, is much better than finding players at any other position. Except for the rare hiccup (Matt Capps, Trombley) the Twins have had pretty reliable chain of closers since Davis, nearly 30 years ago. Reardon-Aguilera-Guardado-Nathan-Perkins, with 11 All-Star games amongst them. Likely, if other guys had been installed as closer, they would have finished with a similar number of saves.

 

The only reason Davis is so widely remembered as a bust, was because they incredibally did not pull the plug on him. And it's teams who have the Ron Davis' that hopefully will be willing to trade for a new closer instead of looking internally.

[nicksaviking]

I don't see Perkin's value possibly increasing over the offseason. He's been doing this proven closer thing for 2 seasons now and has been a dominant reliever for 3. His contract is very affordable too. My guess is that he hasn't been moved because no one wants to pay what Ryan wants for him.

 

I agree, and mostly because there are generally a half dozen free agents who have closer experience.

[Twins Daily Admin]

Well, if this is what a closer gets, especially one who is cheap this year and cheap next year, then hang onto Perkins.

 

Veras isn't Perkins, but he's a poor man's Perkins and probably fills the bill for most teams out there. I can't imagine the Twins getting that much more than what the Astros did, and if we're talking about a handful of B level prospects, I'll keep Perk.

[ThePuck]

Tampa Bay just got Jessie Crain from the White Sox.

[Smcginnity]

The market for Perkins is drying up. At this point, I can't see a team making a run at him unless they were desperate at the last minute. Like a team losing their closer to injury tomorrow or Wednesday. Oh well...it was fun to think about

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It would probably take a B+ prospect and a good amount of change to me (and possibly the Twins too) to start considering trading Perkins.

[LaBombo]

Atlanta has picked up LAA lefty Scott Downs in exchange for 25 year old AAA RHP Cory Rasmus, a reliever who I don't see graded any higher than a C prospect.

 

Perkins has more value than any of the three relievers just traded, but even so, with what their teams have gotten for them it's hard to see Perkins bringing more than a middling B prospect.

[Lonestar]

Downs is a 37-year-old LOOGY. Not the same as a 30-year-old All-Star closer.

[LaBombo]

Downs is a 37-year-old LOOGY. Not the same as a 30-year-old All-Star closer.

As I said, Perkins is worth more than any of the guys who've been moved. That's obvious.

 

But I doubt many teams would value him ahead of Veras, Crains and Downs combined, at least at the deadline. And what the three of them have netted so far doesn't add up to the value of a fringey A- or solid B+ prospect, which is what several posters (including me) would draw the line at where they would feel good about the Twins dealing Perk.

[cmb0252]

As I said, Perkins is worth more than any of the guys who've been moved. That's obvious.

 

But I doubt many teams would value him ahead of Veras, Crains and Downs combined, at least at the deadline. And what the three of them have netted so far doesn't add up to the value of a fringey A- or solid B+ prospect, which is what several posters (including me) would draw the line at where they would feel good about the Twins dealing Perk.

 

RPers are normally in higher demand at the trade deadline due to desperation. Add in the lack of top end RPing this is our best chance to get top value. At the start of the trade deadline experts felt we could start a bidding war if we put Perkins on the block. Honestly, I think the biggest problem is the lack of our front office trying to start a bidding war.

[Rosterman]

You con't trade closers during the off-season...you sign a closer. Perkins also has the two upsides of being a lefty and cheap. He can fill a non-closing role if need be at a decent price, too. But if you are looking for patchwork for the season, you do what the Tigers did, or perhaps the Rays did with Crain (if healthy). Someone to keep you respectible until the off-season and you go buying. By the way, what did happen to Matt Capps!

[Monkeypaws]

Tampa Bay just got Jessie Crain from the White Sox.

 

I am glad to see him leave the White Sox - and at last, the White Sox are free of ex-Twins.

[Thrylos]

Valid point. It looks like this Vasquez guy would be more comparable to an Aderlin Mejia or Adam Walker type player (maybe). So, for Perkins, I would only be happy with a return of something like Alex Meyer and Kepler type return. However, I don't see that happening.

 

 

This is kind of fun

 

Rewind

 

The Capps trade. That was about the return (for the Nats nee Expos.) And everyone is stewing about that trade, but truth be told Capps then had better numbers as a whole than Perkins now.

 

Putting things into perspective...

[Thrylos]

By the way, what did happen to Matt Capps!

 

Indians' DL AAA

[drjim]

This is kind of fun

 

Rewind

 

The Capps trade. That was about the return (for the Nats nee Expos.) And everyone is stewing about that trade, but truth be told Capps then had better numbers as a whole than Perkins now.

 

Putting things into perspective...

 

That is a terrible way to look at it. Why would anyone care how Perkins pitched three years ago when thinking of trading for him now?

 

For the relevant season Perkins was better than Capps at ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9 at this point. Many are not especially close.