How Poor Is the Twins’ Core?

[lukeduke1980]

11 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

They shouldn't be building around anyone. They should be building an organizational plan for sustained winning and upgrading their scouting, training and minor league development programs.

 

Isn't that what Falvey did

[Eris]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

How poor is this author and can he step up to write a better title for his articles. 

I don’t really have an issue with the article as the author makes clear in the first paragraph that he is summarizing and discussing that “ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks the Twins’ current core near baseball’s basement.”

 I also think the assessment of the Twins lacking elite talent is correct. Where I would question the methodology is that elite talent is defined as >5 WAR. I am not sure this is a meaningful metric as the number of 5 fWAR players is quite limited. There were 17 MLB players with >5 fWAR in 2025 and there are about 10 this year. Really a SSS to base conclusions. The other consideration is that even some of the highest ranked MLB prospects struggle to have even an average career. 
 

I would look at this a little differently. Very good teams achieve about 25 fWAR from position players and about 20 fWAR from pitching. What do the Twins need to do to get this level. Lacking elite talent a team will need at least 6 or more position players producing at 3 fWAR or better. The Twins will not have a single position player with 3 fWAR for this season. 

[DocBauer]

I understand the rankings, I really do. I think the issue going forward is not where we are now, but rather where we might be begining next year.

While I objected to much of the  roster construction to begin this season...for instance I thought Rodriguez was ready...I do feel injuries affected "the plan" of a transition that would have problem taken place much sooner, and to better long term affect, had K-Pepper, Jenkins, and Rodriguez not missed so much time with injuries. Plus, Abel looked poised to being a part of the future and he went down as well.

SOMETHING has to change as what they've been doing hasn't worked. Wallner is done, Larnach and Lewis never matured in to what was hoped for. The door has now been opened for the prospects, and it's up to them to claim their jobs on the roster.

I doubt any of them are going to be high echelon 4 or 5 WAR players immediately. It seldom works that way. But at least we are starting to a younger team with more speed, defense, and upside. This season is done. More than a couple veterans are going to be gone. They still need a couple more smart additions in the offseason for 2027. 

But I think 2027 could be a lot more fun and offer up a lot more hope going forward.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Isn't that what Falvey did

Yes, but this has to be an ongoing thing. I think the Twins pulled back on being innovative, and the cracks are now starting to show.

[USAFChief]

Yup. The Twins primary problem is lack of top talent. Pitching, defense and offense. 

It's not from lack of draft opportunities either. 

 

[HarmonK03]

11 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Isn't that what Falvey did

Based on results over 10 years, no he did not.

[mluebker]

21 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Congrats to the Rockies on their 5th consecutive year being ranked 30th on this list!

Moving to Colorado hasn’t improved my baseball-watching choices, that’s for sure.

[mluebker]

19 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I ask, would you sign Lewis right now for 3-4 years? You

I’d sooner sign Clemens for 3-4 years. He’s hit and fielded better and doesn’t prance around the field wearing war-paint he hasn’t earned.

[TopGunn#22]

Clemens is a very interesting player mluebker.  He's a solid glove glove, especially at 2B and while the batting average and OBP are low, he hits with consistent power.  He should be the starting 2B next year to begin the season (whenever the season eventually begins).  But once Marek Houston is promoted, Culpepper will surely swing to 2B.  Clemens would still be a very capable Utilityman, but if he puts together a first half next year, similar to what he did this year, something useful could be gotten for him at the trade deadline.

I think we are all just frustrated at the mediocrity of what the Pohlad ownership and Front Offices have produced for the last nearly 20 years (with the exception of 2019).  We are ALL ready for change.  The sooner, the better.  These last 2 seasons, many of us were pretty sure the Twins lacked enough to even contend in the lowly A.L. Central.  We were right.  And our ownership and FO let opportunities slip by that could have made us better.  For Example:  Trading Joe Ryan to the Red Sox for Arias and Tolle and failing to trade Jeffers to the Yankees for a useful pitcher or two. 

But there is SOME optimism for 2027.  We started 2026 with Brooks Lee at SS.  We all knew that would go badly.  But I'm encouraged by his season and his play at 3B.  He's got room to grow,  We started with Luke Keaschall at 2B.  The kid can hit, but he and Lee were probably baseball's worst middle infield pairing defensively and with Keaschall's slow start offensively it only added to the negative ranking.

Now, for next year, we will be looking at an eventual infield of Lee at 3B, Houston at SS and Culpepper at 2B.  THAT is an incredible upgrade from what we started 2026 with defensively for sure, and possibly offensively.  We are looking at Jenkins, E-Rod and Keaschall in an OF with Buxton instead of an OF with Larnach, Wallner, Austin Martin and Roden (or Outman for that matter).  Again, this is an improvement.  How big of an improvement is a valid debate, but it certainly has far more potential than 2026.  

Whether we have Lopez AND Ryan at the top of our rotation with Bradley or just ONE of them, THAT's an improvement from 2026.  If Ryan is traded, he may not bring back an Arias and Tolle, but something useful should be acquired.  Zebby looked pretty good last night.  Abel looked pretty good at times before getting hurt. Prielipp has stayed healthy and had plenty of encouraging innings.  

If I'm moving on from Ryan this off-season, and maybe Lopez and Clemens at the deadline. Moving on from Larnach, Wallner, and Ober, as well as Lewis this off-season, and let's add Austin Martin to the list, my focus would be on upside arms that need some tinkering.  Maybe there is one position player mixed in, but we have what seems to me, plenty of position players emerging in the system, but adding pitching depth to go with what I believe will finally be at least an average Twins defense, then anything is possible in the tepid A.L. Central.  

We need new ownership.  We need a completely new FO.  Something with people from the Brewers and/or Guardian-Indians organizations who are ready for bigger roles in a new organization because they are buried behind smart guys in Milwaukee and Cleveland.  That's 7-8 guys we'd be trading.  I'll admit, I don't have a lot of faith in our current FO acquiring the right talent in return, but let's say we add just 3 guys that could help the Twins at point next season or 2028 and they are each younger and cheaper than what we traded away.  That, to me, would be a small step forward. 

Maybe Pablo pitches at an All-Star level.  Depending on where we are in the A.L. Central and Wild Card race as the trade deadline approaches, he could either be traded for a lot more with his value re-established or possibly extended.  Having Pablo around with a young staff of Bradley, Abel, Zebby, Prielipp and whoever we acquired in a Joe Ryan trade would be very beneficial. 

What dampens the outlook going forward are the Pohlad's still owning the Twins and the same inadequate people in our FO.  This has to change for any enthusiasm to return to Twins baseball.  Nothing will change until THAT changes, even though there is some young talent emerging that is intriguing.  We have to get back to a pitching and defense centered team.  2019 kind of ruined that model from the Tom Kelly/Andy McPhail era.  While 2019 was a really fun season for Twins fans, it's effects have dogged the Twins organization ever sense.  

[mluebker]

7 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We have to get back to a pitching and defense centered team.

Amen. And your scenario for next year actually had me looking ahead with something that I think might be optimism. Maybe it’s just too much coffee today, but either way, I haven’t felt that for a while.