White Sox 10, Twins 1: Bailey Ober Bends, Bullpen Breaks In Blowout

[shimrod]

11 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

This was also his issue when he first got to AAA last year. The thought that he could come up to the majors and immediately be a star without an adjustment period was always based on hope and not reality.

Reportedly Jenkins has a history of needing an adjustment period. That's why it was imperative to get him up and acclimated now. Ideally he is adjusted and ready to hit the ground running next year. 

EDIT: I don't see any argument that promoting Jenkins cost the team a shot at the playoffs. It's not like they benched a healthy Buxton. Who was going to fill that position and do substantially better than Jenkins? Kreidler? 

 

[MeleMouth]

6 minutes ago, shimrod said:

Reportedly Jenkins has a history of needing an adjustment period. That's why it was imperative to get him up and acclimated now. Ideally he is adjusted and ready to hit the ground running next year. 

EDIT: I don't see any argument that promoting Jenkins cost the team a shot at the playoffs. It's not like they benched a healthy Buxton. Who was going to fill that position and do substantially better than Jenkins? Kreidler? 

 

The arguments were the opposite - that failing to promote Jenkins hurt the team's chances to make the playoffs.

Now, if we want to say he needs an adjustment period, that's fine, and in fact I agree. I would do the same for ERod.

It's just funny that two weeks ago the arguments for promoting him were to help the team make the playoffs and now the goal posts are changing.

[Wedman13]

11 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

"Walker Jenkins sure has a lot more swing-and-miss in his game than anticipated. It probably is too soon to bench him, but it sure would be nice if he could make some good contact ahead in the count."

This was also his issue when he first got to AAA last year. The thought that he could come up to the majors and immediately be a star without an adjustment period was always based on hope and not reality. This doesn't mean that he's bad, but it does suggest that keeping him in AAA would have been a good idea.

90% of the board will disagree with you., a 21 year old was going to save the chance at a wild card. That's very rare.  Do think he will a great 24-25 year old?  I do

[shimrod]

5 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The arguments were the opposite - that failing to promote Jenkins hurt the team's chances to make the playoffs.

Now, if we want to say he needs an adjustment period, that's fine, and in fact I agree. I would do the same for ERod.

It's just funny that two weeks ago the arguments for promoting him were to help the team make the playoffs and now the goal posts are changing.

True, but to be fair those conflicting arguments could be from different commenters. Those who wanted Jenkins for the playoff drive can argue he should have been elevated sooner. Multiple week watching an injured Buxton flail could instead have been the adjustment period for Jenkins. Perhaps he'd be settling in by now. 

Personally I never saw this as a playoff team. My preference was to sell at the deadline, adding young talent and clearing spots for prospects like Jenkins. 

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

The arguments were the opposite - that failing to promote Jenkins hurt the team's chances to make the playoffs.

Now, if we want to say he needs an adjustment period, that's fine, and in fact I agree. I would do the same for ERod.

It's just funny that two weeks ago the arguments for promoting him were to help the team make the playoffs and now the goal posts are changing.

This is spot on.  The narrative from so many was 'it was going to help now., Roden sucks, etc.  but now the narrative on here  is 'development'.  That is not what so many here said 4 weeks ago.

[JBK]

Andrew Morris has a post All-star game ERA of 5.95.  Sit the kid down.

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Avoid the temptation of benching Jenkins.  He MUST play everyday even if he looks bad at times.  I see the Larnach haters are back in full force.  They must be the same people that think Buxton is the savior of the franchise.  The Hoffman trade IMO will godown as one of the worst ever.  Minter has been good.  But this team is a long way away from being a serious contender.  Well we have Detroit for 3.  They are bad.  But so are the Twins

Worse than Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan?

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, JBK said:

Andrew Morris has a post All-star game ERA of 5.95.  Sit the kid down.

Do not sit the kids in favor of veterans now.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, shimrod said:

Reportedly Jenkins has a history of needing an adjustment period. That's why it was imperative to get him up and acclimated now. Ideally he is adjusted and ready to hit the ground running next year. 

EDIT: I don't see any argument that promoting Jenkins cost the team a shot at the playoffs. It's not like they benched a healthy Buxton. Who was going to fill that position and do substantially better than Jenkins? Kreidler? 

Nearly every player who has played in MLB has needed an adjustment period. Some are immediate, others after the scouting reports reveal a weakness.

Ryan Kreidler is actually the best argument for promoting both Culpepper and Jenkins. Not hard to exceed his production.

[bean5302]

Jenkins is learning MLB is hard. I doubt there's ever been a year where the adjustment from AAA to MLB has been harder for a batter with how abominable the AAA pitching in the International League has been.

31 PA is nothing.

.115/.258/.269 OPS .527, 16.1% BB, 25.8% K

take 2 Ks and turn them into doubles

.192/.323/.423 OPS .746, 16.1% BB, 19.4% K

[jkcarew]

I’m not buying the “collapse” narrative. You really don’t collapse from 500, IMO. For collapse to fit, first you have to be good. Here’s another way to look at it…the Twins are 36-35 since June 13 after a bad start. Bottom line, it was a team that never at any point in time reached the point of relevance in the context of the league. Only in Pohladland…where being mathematically eliminated from the 3rd wildcard and the ALC not until the last week of the season is seen as something worth celebrating, if not an actual goal.

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Jenkins is learning MLB is hard. I doubt there's ever been a year where the adjustment from AAA to MLB has been harder for a batter with how abominable the AAA pitching in the International League has been.

31 PA is nothing.

.115/.258/.269 OPS .527, 16.1% BB, 25.8% K

take 2 Ks and turn them into doubles

.192/.323/.423 OPS .746, 16.1% BB, 19.4% K

A magical conversion of K's into doubles would be great, but Jenkins is currently making contact with the ball only about as often as Jake Berger, while hitting the ball so softly that his exit velocities are close to Steven Kwan's, which means that the conversion could be pretty far away, because to get more doubles he needs to hit more balls and he needs to hit them much harder. 

For further comparison, Austin Martin has rarely appeared to be an offensive force, but even he, during his first month in the majors, had exit velocities appr. 4 MPH higher than Jenkins and contact rates about 17.5 basis points higher. This year, Max Clark, perhaps the player most often compared to Jenkins, has numbers very similar to Martin's debut month, which were, again, much higher than Jenkins's.

Culpepper has higher exit velocities and contact rates. The much-scorned Alan Roden had much higher numbers this year, also.

Absolutely, Jenkins is 21 and there is every reason to think he's going to become much better. Maybe these growing pains are exactly what should happen and he will work through them, but for now they suggest he is overmatched in the majors.

[RpR]

53 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I’m not buying the “collapse” narrative. You really don’t collapse from 500, IMO. For collapse to fit, first you have to be good. Here’s another way to look at it…the Twins are 36-35 since June 13 after a bad start. Bottom line, it was a team that never at any point in time reached the point of relevance in the context of the league. Only in Pohladland…where being mathematically eliminated from the 3rd wildcard and the ALC not until the last week of the season is seen as something worth celebrating, if not an actual goal.

More Debbie Downer.

Not a collapse but some losses sadly made the team seem like Keystone Cops.

Still more interesting than last year.

[Danchat]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The only positive is they might have not traded for Hoffman. They get their reliever and keep Dasan Hill.

Hmmm, that would be nice. Though Hoffman is under control for another year while Abreu is not.

[MeleMouth]

3 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Hmmm, that would be nice. Though Hoffman is under control for another year while Abreu is not.

The Twins will pay Hoffman about $7.25 million next year. That's a much higher salary than the Twins should pay for a 7th inning reliever. 

[DJL44]

53 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The Twins will pay Hoffman about $7.25 million next year. That's a much higher salary than the Twins should pay for a 7th inning reliever. 

You haven’t paid much attention to reliever market value 

[MeleMouth]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You haven’t paid much attention to reliever market value 

Criticism without evidence is pretty lame. Since you think you know so much about "reliever market value," why don't you tell us how many teams pay $7.25 million to a 7th inning guy? Then, tell us how many of those deals are good.

Only 31 relievers total (including Minter and Hoffman) make as much as $7.25 million.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

A magical conversion of K's into doubles would be great, but Jenkins is currently making contact with the ball only about as often as Jake Berger, while hitting the ball so softly that his exit velocities are close to Steven Kwan's, which means that the conversion could be pretty far away, because to get more doubles he needs to hit more balls and he needs to hit them much harder. 

For further comparison, Austin Martin has rarely appeared to be an offensive force, but even he, during his first month in the majors, had exit velocities appr. 4 MPH higher than Jenkins and contact rates about 17.5 basis points higher. This year, Max Clark, perhaps the player most often compared to Jenkins, has numbers very similar to Martin's debut month, which were, again, much higher than Jenkins's.

Culpepper has higher exit velocities and contact rates. The much-scorned Alan Roden had much higher numbers this year, also.

Absolutely, Jenkins is 21 and there is every reason to think he's going to become much better. Maybe these growing pains are exactly what should happen and he will work through them, but for now they suggest he is overmatched in the majors.

You have entirely missed the point. 

[MeleMouth]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You have entirely missed the point. 

Another criticism without evidence. What is the point? It's clearly not that Jenkins is going to help the team make the playoffs, which was the point just a week or two ago.

Or is it that his statistics would be better if we just assumed K's were actually doubles?

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Another criticism without evidence. What is the point? It's clearly not that Jenkins is going to help the team make the playoffs, which was the point just a week or two ago.

Or is it that his statistics would be better if we just assumed K's were actually doubles?

As I stated "31 PA is nothing."

In plain speak, 31 plate appearances is insufficient to draw any meaningful conclusions without extreme stats like 50% K rates vs. 5% BB rates. Your data is garbage because the data set is too small to draw any meaningful conclusion.

Please don't ask me to break it down more than that for you.

 

[MeleMouth]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

As I stated "31 PA is nothing."

In plain speak, 31 plate appearances is insufficient to draw any meaningful conclusions without extreme stats like 50% K rates vs. 5% BB rates. Your data is garbage because the data set is too small to draw any meaningful conclusion.

Please don't ask me to break it down more than that for you.

 

I have evidence; you have claims and suppositions.

Look it up: exit velocity and maximum exit velocity (Jenkins is below all qualified hitters other than Kwan and Arraez) stabilize pretty fast, although, yes, probably at least twice as many PAs will be required. 

Certainly, we can hope that the game slows down for Jenkins and there are many reasons to think it will, but - generalized claims aside - he's struggling now.