The enigma of Dozier

[Monkeypaws]

The guy was hitting .232 on July 21, the day he went 2-4 vs. Cleveland. He has extended his hitting streak now to 7 games, and his average has DROPPED to .231.

 

With a low average, it seems hardly possible to lose BA points during a hitting streak, but as Gardy would say, he is getting after it. Weird.

[Benchwarmerjim]

well, batting leadoff he gets those extra at bats. he goes 1-5, well thats a .200 average and the overall BA goes down.

[Joe A. Preusser]

well, batting leadoff he gets those extra at bats. he goes 1-5, well thats a .200 average and the overall BA goes down.

 

That's why long term Hicks and then Buxton will be leading off, while Dozier will bat in the 7 hole if he sticks with the team. He could be very valuable providing a little punch at the bottom of the order.

[matthew0211]

Dozier should spend the offseason learning to play 3B; he provides a bit of pop with the bat, and it would be nice to have a utility IF that can come off the bench and be a threat for a home run in the late innings for a change.

[LaBombo]

Dozier should spend the offseason learning to play 3B; he provides a bit of pop with the bat, and it would be nice to have a utility IF that can come off the bench and be a threat for a home run in the late innings for a change.

 

Yeah. As the season wears on it appears increasingly likely that Dozier's likely future is Nick Punto with less defense, more pop, and hopefully far fewer head-first slides into first base...

[Thegrin]

Inigma = Dozier. For a fine fielding 2b did you see his error against Seattle on Sunday ?

[Monkeypaws]

Inigma = Dozier. For a fine fielding 2b did you see his error against Seattle on Sunday ?

 

What's inigma?

 

No I didn't.

[snepp]

What's inigma?

 

He really likes Apple products?

[Oldgoat_MN]

Everyone makes an error occasionally.

Fangraphs describes ErrR as such:

 

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

 

Of the 19 'qualified' MLB second basemen Dozier is second only to Darwin Barney in ErrR. That doesn't say everything, but it says something. He has played, IMO, a surprisingly solid 2B.

 

He's also second (to Pedroia) in DRS.

He is 9th of 19 in UZR/150.

[ThePuck]

By all accounts, Dozier has played an exceptional 2B

[drjim]

By all accounts, Dozier has played an exceptional 2B

 

Are you forgetting so easily that he made an error that one time.

[Thegrin]

That error was the anomalie that caused the enigma.

[stringer bell]

That's why long term Hicks and then Buxton will be leading off, while Dozier will bat in the 7 hole if he sticks with the team. He could be very valuable providing a little punch at the bottom of the order.

I think Dozier is miscast as a leadoff guy, but I think the production he has provided would be more than acceptable from a spot in the bottom of the order. As noted above, his defense has been somewhere between solid and outstanding and combined with a little pop and a little speed, he has thus far shown himself to be a serviceable starter as a second baseman.

[DaveW]

I actually like our SS/2B combo of Dozier/Florimon moving forward. Both are looking like potential 3 WAR a year players, Florimon doesn't bring much with the bat, but Dozier reminds me of a poor mans JJ Hardy at the plate (low average, low obp but the ability to give you 15-20 HR)

 

 

If we can upgrade the 1B/DH/LF spots I really like our lineup, especially once Sano and Arcia are both up with the club

[Mike Sixel]

Really? This offense is one of the worst in the league because these guys can't hit, just like everyone else not named Mauer on this roster. I don't know why people are so willing to have awful hitters at 2B, when a guy like Rosario is nearly ready. Settling for bad hitters, because other hitters can make up for them, that leads to a bad roster, imo.

[Steve Penz]

Really? This offense is one of the worst in the league because these guys can't hit, just like everyone else not named Mauer on this roster. I don't know why people are so willing to have awful hitters at 2B, when a guy like Rosario is nearly ready. Settling for bad hitters, because other hitters can make up for them, that leads to a bad roster, imo.

 

It is hard to not agree with this. Many have said that Rosario will make a run at the 2b job next year and we will see if that is true. Whoever gets the job, the team cannot settle for such poor offense at that position. 15 HR with low OBP and low average is worthless. A second baseman needs to get on base.

[Guest USAFChief]

Settling for bad hitters, because other hitters can make up for them, that leads to a bad roster, imo.

i agree.

 

IMO "he doesn't have to hit if everyone else does their job," "he's just fine for a number 9 hitter," and " he plays position X so he doesn't have to hit" are all bad rationales.

 

Dozier has looked really good at second to me, and I think he might improve yet as a hitter, but if this is all you ever get from him at the plate, I don't think that's a long term answer for a winning team. Same for Florimon.

[Siehbiscuit]

Really? This offense is one of the worst in the league because these guys can't hit, just like everyone else not named Mauer on this roster. I don't know why people are so willing to have awful hitters at 2B, when a guy like Rosario is nearly ready. Settling for bad hitters, because other hitters can make up for them, that leads to a bad roster, imo.

 

If I could 'like' this a thousand times I would! The Twins lineup is below average at EVERY position, with the exception of catcher. Seriously people, below average everywhere! The only passes I give this year are to Hicks (rookie with promise) and maybe Florimon (first full season at MLB, glove has been pretty solid too). As soon as Rosario is ready, even if its on Opening Day 2014 he needs to get the nod. Dozier can move to utility role.

[Mike Sixel]

Is it tacky to like every post that agrees with you?

[Oldgoat_MN]

Is it tacky to like every post that agrees with you?

No. And I say, "No" because it wouldn't stop you anyway.

[stringer bell]

I'll put it this way: would replacing Dozier with Rosario make the team better? Would replacing Dozier with Rosario make the team a playoff contender? If Rosario flames out, can the Twins contend with Dozier as the regular second baseman? My answers are no, no, yes. Dozier looks to be replaceable, but he isn't a primary reason why this club is 10 games under .500. I think Dozier's fine defense makes up for his so far substandard offense as a second baseman. His OPS has been hovering around .700 for a while since starting off poorly and righting the ship in late May. He has been the best leadoff guy the Twins have and that is damning him with faint praise, because as a team the Twins leadoff position has to be the worst in baseball. It looks to me that his upside is a slightly above average second baseman and right now he is in the middle third of 2Bs.

[Mike Sixel]

Replacing Dozier with Rosario would not make the team better? Could not disagree more.

[drjim]

Replacing Dozier with Rosario would not make the team better? Could not disagree more.

 

This is most likely true in the long term but is far from a certainty in the next couple of seasons both because Dozier could improve and Rosario could take some time. This will play out appropriately.

[Mike Sixel]

This is most likely true in the long term but is far from a certainty in the next couple of seasons both because Dozier could improve and Rosario could take some time. This will play out appropriately.

 

Good point.

[stringer bell]

I'm not a big WAR guy, but I do believe that Dozier's "D" has really helped this year. I doubt that right now and probably into next year that the better offense provided by Rosario would cancel out the dropoff in defense. Eddie is new to 2B and has done well, but I still believe he is not a major league average defender at this stage.

[bird]

It's possible the Twins simply view both Florimon and Dozier as acceptable placeholders given the current state of progress in improving the whole mess. My guess is that the two hold the fort until Rosario proves he's completely ready (he's not right now) and a solution from outside the organization is found for SS. By the time the other pieces are (hopefully) in place in 2015, they'll be less accepting of Florimon's production on offense, and they'll have tradable assets with which to solve the problem.

[DaveW]

i agree.

 

IMO "he doesn't have to hit if everyone else does their job," "he's just fine for a number 9 hitter," and " he plays position X so he doesn't have to hit" are all bad rationales.

 

Dozier has looked really good at second to me, and I think he might improve yet as a hitter, but if this is all you ever get from him at the plate, I don't think that's a long term answer for a winning team. Same for Florimon.

 

If he can give you a .700 OPS and 15-20 HR while playing a very good defense at 2B you take that any day of the week. Obviously you would prefer to have a Cano at 2B, but Dozier does have the 10th highest WAR amongst all 2B this year.... that seems to be at the very least "above average" to me, and he should continue to show improvement moving forward. (Keep in mind I was a huge Dozier hater)

 

The fact is, defense is so much more important at 2B/SS (look at how much Andrus and his no bat just got) if you have a slick fielder who can still hold his own at the plate (never will be a silver slugger, or AS) you are in pretty decent shape. Obviously I would like Rosario to become a stud and bump Dozier to SS or UTIL guy, but for now, the 10th highest WAR 2B in baseball? I can handle that.

 

Make no mistake about it on the list of Twins issues: Pitching is 1, 2, 3 and 4. After that you are probably looking at corner OF and 1B since the Twins are getting ZERO production from those spots.

[DaveW]

Also Florimon has the 13th highest WAR amongst SS.

 

Having guys who are above league average at SS/2B isn't exactly a super horrible problem IMHO.

 

The amazing thing is, our pitching has still been this awful, with a pretty good defense overall behind them.

[Mike Sixel]

The offense is bottom 5 in the AL, and dropping with Willingham and Arcia not on the roster. Hitting is an issue people seem to be missing somehow.

[DaveW]

The offense is bottom 5 in the AL, and dropping with Willingham and Arcia not on the roster. Hitting is an issue people seem to be missing somehow.

 

Again, we are getting zero production out of our "offensive" positions, literally getting next to nothing from the OF in general, 1B and DH.

 

The nice thing though is:

1. We have had injuries.

2. We have bats in the minors getting close (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia)

3. Finding DH/1B/Corner OF is really easy to find in FA market (see: Josh Willingham signing)

 

We have a SS/2B combo where both guys are above average. Dozier should continue to improve his bat as well, but frankly as mentioned, he is a lesser version of JJ Hardy at the plate, and nobody thinks he is some disaster in the lineup.

 

All major efforts on the trade/FA market should be for pitching this historically awful rotation, then spend another 10 mil or so for a 1B or corner OF if need be. Dozier/Florimon are fine until Rosario and some other stud prospect comes up. Teams do and can win with lighter hitting MI, they can't win with light hitting DH/1B and LF/RF