Lee, Lewis, Keaschall--Can They Hit and Field Well Enough to be Parts of the Future?

[stringer bell]

As many have noted,the Twins have switched up their entire infield. First baseman Kody Clemens has played all three outfield spots plus second base and is currently the primary second baseman for the Twins. Second baseman Luke Keaschall has played almost exclusively in the outfield, starting fifteen games in center and thirteen in right since his move away from second base. Opening Day shortstop Brooks Lee has been the regular third baseman since late May. He has played a game or two at shortstop, but he's started more than 60 games at third. Royce Lewis is now the team's principal first baseman, with a few turns at second base.

As all three of the younger players are moving down the defensive spectrum (noted that center field isn't a move down the spectrum, but Keaschall is playing there in Buxton's absence), the question has to be asked of each player, can they hit enough and field well enough at their new regular position to be major league regulars?

This may not be a question for the trade deadline, but rather how the Twins proceed in the next couple of years. Under the current collective bargaining agreement all are under team control for at least two years. 

Brooks Lee tried to be a shortstop, but his tools foiled that endevour. Since his move to third, his defense has shown he's a better fit at third. In his 60 games at third this year, he has posted solidly above-average defensive numbers. Lee's offense has climbed each of his years in MLB and tthis year is not an exception. He has an OPS+ slightly above league average this year and has hit 16 homers, third on the team. Because he always has the platoon advantage as a switch hitter, Lee has been a truly everyday player. Should he be this in the future? His Baseball Savant page doesn't look promising. Even though he is only 25, he may be maxed out with "meh" production.

The next move the Twins made in conjunction with Lee moving to third was to move Royce Lewis to the right side of the infield. Lewis has very little experience at second base and none at first, but after a short training session he has been the Twins' first baseman with a couple of starts at third when Lee wasn't playing there and a few starts at second against left handed pitching. Lewis has been a better hitter since returning from his demotion to St. Paul. His OPS just climbed above .700 for the season, but has been near .800 since his return. He has shown his inexperience at first and second a couple times, but has seemed to take to the right side acceptably. Royce has only had one minimum stay on the Injured List, making this season easily his healthiest since he arrived on the scene in 2022. Lewis' Savant page shows a bit more promise than Lee, but doesn't seem to be that he is a superstar in waiting. I would suggest that his most likely path forward is to be an above-average offensive player who is competent on defense, more of a Michael Cuddyer and not Kirby Puckett. Is that good enough to be a full-time first baseman?

Finally, the Twins have moved on from Keaschall at second base. He moved to right field and has played center as Buxton has had to stints on the IL. Keaschall was excellent as a rookie, but faltered out of the gate in his second season (first full season). Luke has come on and is now putting up league-average hitting numbers for the season. Like Lewis, looking only at the more recent numbers, one can see a good offensive profile, but for the season Keaschall is an average offensive player. Can he produce enough as a hitter and improve enough as a fielder to be an everyday corner outfielder? The question here is power. Almost three quarters into the season, Keaschall has but six homers. In approximately a full season of at-bats spread over two seasons, Keaschall has ten homers.

All three of these guys were high draft picks (Lewis #1 overall, Lee first round and Keaschall second round) and at this point we've seen the flaws along with the strengths. Are all three going to be part of the core for the rest of the decade, only two or maybe one? Each has questions and perhaps the answers will be supplied in the remainder of this season.                                                                                                                                                                            

[Possumlad]

Lee looks like a league average starting third baseman both in the field and in the batter's box... That provides some straightforward value. 

Lewis, I believe could grow into a slightly above average first baseman both with the glove and bat. 

Keasch is tough, as his bat doesn't profile well enough to play regularly in the outfield. My hope is that he rounds into a very valuable utility guy. His infield glove plays well enough to at least spot start there.

On controllable deals, they all provide some value to the twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

Of those, I trust Lee the most.

I like Keaschell, it's all about what position he ends up at. I think he's the kind of guy that is a great 4th OF and  possible sub at second or first. But I'm only mildly confident. But it's early. 

Lewis? It's no secret I'm not a big fan. I have no idea who he is. Obviously, if he's the guy he's been since his return, he's a fine first baseman. But I have real doubts he can stay healthy, let alone productive. All that typed, I think he ends up a slightly above average hitter as a first baseman. But he's gone in two years? Or is it three?

[clone52]

All 3 could be okay but none should be off limits in a trade.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Keaschall I feel comfortable with the bat, but he needs more work on the defensive side.  I think he is fine wherever he finds a home.  

Lee will likely slot as a utility player similar to Clemens.  The issue is we have 3 more years of control on Clemens.   1 of those 2 could get traded at some point.  

Lewis -  If you would tell me that he will continue to hit opposite field on outside pitches I think he can be a 2 WAR player.  If not because of the steady diet of outside pitches he will continue to struggle because of his pull happy swing.  He has to adapt until they start coming inside again.  

[Linus]

First of all, great topic Stringer and well written. You should write for Twins Daily. For me this is one of the biggest questions for the Twins to address going forward. And they need to do it much more decisively than they have recently. My example here would be Trevor Larnach. He’s having a good season but we waited for 4 years of substandard play to get here - that’s not how you form winning teams. To comment specifically this is my fear with Lewis. He is not a young player anymore and while he is playing better, there is serious risk that we could do this for 3 more years and not get anything but average production. Lee is thoroughly average - with the glove and bat. He’s younger and has improved his hitting year over year so maybe there is hope next year could be good. Keaschall is another Falvey bat first how do I catch this thing guy. He’s not a good fielder anywhere and, although I like his OBP and hustle, his offensive profile is not likely to ever offset his glove. My comments should not be taken as an attack on the individual players; they are all trying to do their best and many times things just don’t work out in baseball. If I were to “blame” someone or something it would be the Twins draft philosophy. For a period of time they just drafted the best bats they could find without much regard for other aspects of the game. Even championship teams field average players but you can’t have a whole lineup of them and that is my fear going forward for the Twins. 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

First of all, great topic Stringer and well written. You should write for Twins Daily. For me this is one of the biggest questions for the Twins to address going forward. And they need to do it much more decisively than they have recently. My example here would be Trevor Larnach. He’s having a good season but we waited for 4 years of substandard play to get here - that’s not how you form winning teams.

To comment specifically this is my fear with Lewis.   He is not a young player anymore and while he is playing better, there is serious risk that we could do this for 3 more years and not get anything but average production.

Lee is thoroughly average - with the glove and bat. He’s younger and has improved his hitting year over year so maybe there is hope next year could be good.

Keaschall is another Falvey bat first how do I catch this thing guy. He’s not a good fielder anywhere and, although I like his OBP and hustle, his offensive profile is not likely to ever offset his glove. My comments should not be taken as an attack on the individual players; they are all trying to do their best and many times things just don’t work out in baseball.

If I were to “blame” someone or something it would be the Twins draft philosophy. For a period of time they just drafted the best bats they could find without much regard for other aspects of the game. Even championship teams field average players but you can’t have a whole lineup of them and that is my fear going forward for the Twins. 

Lee is good at Third Base.

Nice read though.

[Jim H]

Good topic. Right now, I like Lee the best of these 3. His skill set seems to fit 3b well. I think by next year his defense at 3rd will be a bit smoother and he will have picked up some more of the nuances of the position. His glove is good, his arm and range are good enough for 3rd. He has enough power for a 3rd baseman if his on base skills tick up a bit. His major weakness is hitting left-handed pitching but that could improve with time.

It is too bad Keashall seems to have washed out at 2nd base. His speed, aggressive play, and general hustle are a team need. If there is a clear strength in the Twins organization, it is likely corner outfield. I don't think his offensive profile is high enough to be more than a placeholder for higher ceiling prospects in the system. 

Lewis looks like he could be an excellent 1st baseman. Which is disappointing from a guy with the tools to be excellent anywhere else in the infield or even centerfield but somehow he isn't. The question is the bat, especially as a 1st baseman. The way he produces at times makes you think the bat shouldn't be a question but it is. I am starting to think he is a place holder as well, until someone better shows up. 

[stringer bell]

 1) I think Lee's floor is a good major league utility infielder. Unfortunately, I think his ceiling is mid-range third baseman. There has been year-to-year improvement and room for a bit more, but the tools are the tools and he has below-average speed and an average throwing arm. His exit velocities are not those of a dynamic hitter and he doesn't have the power or bat speed to be a real slugger. Lee's L/R splits favor his lefty side this year, last year he was slightly better against left handed pitching. Being a switch hitter will get him playing time.

2) Lewis. Despite being the oldest of the three guys featured in this thread, he seems to be the guy with the widest variety of outcomes. He has legitimate power, he has had times where he looked like a superstar in waiting, but I think the injuries have robbed him of a lot. He still run decently and I think his glovework has been good for someone in a new position. I don't think Lewis should be playing second base, but he could be good at either of the corners. For a guy who once said "I don't do slumps" he is slump-prone, but the snags haven't been as pronounced since returning from exile in the minors. The more I think about it the more I think he'll have a career like Cuddyer (without the batting championship). Good hitter, multiple positions, but not elite.

3) Keaschall. Can a guy who hits 10-15 homers be a regular corner OF? Keaschall could easily steal 30 bags, hit .270-.300 and be well above .370 OBP. I think one guy with that kind of line can hold down a regular spot, but into today's homer happy environment, that is all. Keaschall as an outfielder makes Austin Martin less valuable to the team, although Martin has become a really good defensive corner outfielder. There's a long way to go on defense for Luke, but I think he'll be okay or maybe better than that. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think Lee has proven himself.  We found his spot and I expect to see him grow.  Keaschall I can handle as an OF but we have to see the bat come around again a bit more.

I think it's time to cut bait on Lewis.  He's just not hitting enough to justify holding down 1B

[bean5302]

Brooks Lee's plate production is a total aberration. His regression to the mean has already been going on for a while.

Since July 1, .221/.288/.358 OPS .646 wRC+ 81 xwOBA a miserable .248. That's Brooks Lee. It's been Brooks Lee since his first year and continues to be exactly who he is at the plate. The chances of him pulling a full year 2014 Danny Santana campaign aren't zero, but it's far more likely Lee is under wRC+ 90 by the end of the season.

In regard to his fielding, he's been capable. He's not a plus fielder at 3B, but his instincts have played well there, and he's clearly made some effort to improve his speed and range. The arm is what holds him back, but he should be able to maintain his league average 3B defense.

Keaschall is a 2B. He needs to play 2B and improve his defense because despite all the cheer and excitement every time he has the occasional 5-10 game hot streak, his expected production remains rooted at league average. That's not bad for a 2B, but it really limits him in the outfield, though I think he could be effective enough in LF due to his speed.

Lewis is a utility guy at this point based on how the Twins deploy him. NOt sure what to make of his day to day playing ability, but at 1B, he's going to need to hit even more.