Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

[jokin]

Pelfrey might just be blowing smoke but he was quoted as saying he has talked to Anderson multiple times that he wants to stay and that he would be "devastated" if he was traded.

 

I would seriously consider a reasonable two year deal. But if the Twins do that I would want to see Correia traded and one more free agent signed next offseason.

 

Here, here! Except I would amend that to (at least) 2 more FA in the offseason. Major money coming off the books. Last night, Mackey said that next year's payroll is estimated to coming in at $57M- that's a lot of wiggle and negotiating room to go after quality, not quantity.

[ThePuck]

It's very simple, really. The Cubs are maximizing and deployinhg every possible option at getting better. And they are digging out of a far deeper hole than the Twins. In the process, they are taking on very acceptable risks, with potential higher rewards, that don't jeopardize the chances of making successive moves as the rebuilding process proceeds.

 

They also have a man at the helm with a turn-around track record.

 

I agree. I said almost the the same thing in response to a post homieramone posted earlier today when he was dogging out the Cubs approach.

 

Seems there clearly seems to be two avenues that Ryan is unable to follow to improve the team. One, trading prospects for proven players and two, getting quality free agents. So far, he's lacking on the international front overall as well, but that's not over yet so maybe there's a rabbit out there he's going to pull out.

 

Cubs are not going to leave any stone unturned, Epstein never has before, and for that alone, they deserve credit, IMO.

[ThePuck]

Here, here! Except I would amend that to (at least) 2 more FA in the offseason. Major money coming off the books. Last night, Mackey said that next year's payroll is estimated to coming in at $57M- that's a lot of wiggle and negotiating room to go after quality, not quantity.

 

So all that wiggle room AND an additional 25M coming in from the TV contract deal.

[jokin]

So all that wiggle room AND an additional 25M coming in from the TV contract deal.

 

Good point, although it becomes a potential wash since everyone else benefits similarly. Will anyone question what was done with that $25M if/when the funds aren't demonstrably put directly back into making the team better?

[ThePuck]

Good point, although it becomes a potential wash since everyone else benefits similarly. Will anyone question what was done with that $25M if/when the funds aren't demonstrably put directly back into making the team better?

 

Only becomes a wash if everyone uses it...and it still has the ability to help the individual team get better if it's spent. I'm not expecting Ryan to sign any quality free agents this offseason...I mean why not wait until we're 'competitive'? ;-)

[drjim]

Here, here! Except I would amend that to (at least) 2 more FA in the offseason. Major money coming off the books. Last night, Mackey said that next year's payroll is estimated to coming in at $57M- that's a lot of wiggle and negotiating room to go after quality, not quantity.

 

I was referring to pitchers specifically. Say they resign Pelfrey and sign a guy like Hughes. Those two, along with Deduno and Gibson is 4 spots. They still have Diamond, Worley, May, Meyer and others in the mix. I would go for a one year flyer guy perhaps but wouldn't go big.

 

I fully expect a corner of/1b type to also be signed and perhaps another bat as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's very arguable that Pelfrey should have been DLd at any time in April..... His ERA for the month in 5 starts was 7.22, a WHIP around 2.00 and giving up an OPS of .933.

 

Both he and Diamond could justifiably have been DLd.

 

Where was Worley being lauded? Coming off an enigmatic season, a good riddance from Phillie and arm surgery.

 

Correia was a good pick-up if he was slated as a back-ender, not a front-liner, and he still has no trade value, so kind-of defeats the overall purpose of the signing.

 

1) You cannot DL a guy just because he's pitching poorly. But the problem is that you've suggested signing far more guys than spots are available. Even if you can DL a guy for pitching bad, you have to make the committement to sign guys prior to the season, not in April. Pitchers have agents who can look at a roster and recognize that there's going to be several odd men out. They won't sign in that situation.

2) Lots of people have lauded the Worley pickup. Just read this thread. I'm not the only one who likes it.

3) Everyone hated KC.

[Oxtung]

At 13 million a year versus 5, Jackson should well have a record better than Correia. At 13 mil a year you should have a 1 or a 2 type performance, not a back of rotation.

 

These guys have all signed contracts within the last two years:

 

Zach Greinke $25-26M/year

Justin Verlander $24M/year

Tim Lincecum $20M/year

Matt Cain $20M/year

Jared Weaver $18M/year

Anibal Sanchez $16-17M/year

CJ Wilson $15M/year

John Danks $14M/year

Matt Harrison $13M/year

Edwin Jackson $13M/year

 

Looks to me like Edwin Jackson is getting paid to be a #3 starter which is what kind of pitcher he is. He'll give you 200IP and an average ERA.

[Riverbrian]

It's very simple, really. The Cubs are maximizing and deploying every possible option at getting better. And they are digging out of a far deeper hole than the Twins. Furthermore, unlike the Twins, they've admitted that they are in a full-rebuild. In the process, they are taking on very acceptable risks, with potential higher rewards, that don't jeopardize the chances of making successive moves as the rebuilding process proceeds.

 

They also have a man at the helm with a turn-around track record.

 

Deploying Yes... Maximizing?

 

Epstein or Moyer have been busy... I will give them that... And I can even give them credit for that... They certainly appear to be trying... But it's still TBD if all this activity pays off down the road. The Cubs have not beaten the Twins at anything yet.

 

Bigger Hole? Based on records last year... The Cubs drafted 3rd and the Twins drafted 4th. The year before that the Twins drafted 2nd and the Cubs drafted 6th.

 

Both teams were in a hole... The bigger hole? We got to be talking inches if different at all.

 

Right now... The Cubs have one more win than we do.

 

Both teams have a long way to go and it was gonna take time to get back.

 

Using the Cubs as an example/argument... In my opinion... Seems to be a preference for how Epstein and Hoyer are going about it over Ryan. Yet... nobody has fixed it... Yet.

[Oxtung]

 

Go look back at my data. There weren't "clearly" more options out there. Most of the guys who have turned out really good were not options.

Agree to disagree on this. I think it is very hard to say they were not options when Greinke has come out and said he was going to the highest bidder.

 

It seems as though the complaint here is that we didn't get the right guy, and to me that's a hindsight argument.

It's not hindsight if the same things were being said the day Correia and Pelfrey signed. Since they were, let's just call it consistency.

 

I'll state what I said before. They most definitely tried. Whether or not you agree with their approach is a different issue. But they did try.. Oh, and I'd add, if they had followed what was the TwinsDaily consensus, we'd be worse off right now... Are they above criticism? No. But I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that they had a plan, executed on it, and generally knew what they were doing.

 

You're taking the "didn't try" out of context. It's not that they didn't add pitching depth. It's not that they didn't get warm bodies to toss out there every 5 days. It's that they didn't try to use FA to improve the long term competitiveness of this team in a season when they had the resources, the rotation openings and the pitchers available. That has been clearly covered in previous posts.

[cmathewson]

He didn't try on either Greinke or Sanchez. I'm glad he didn't in Greinke's case. Sanchez is a push. I've gone back and forth, but now I'd say he should have. After that, I don't have much to go on by way of complaint.

 

In any event, I still think the class was thin. Lohse would cost a draft pick. Jackson is not all that reliable. Dempster is aging (started well, has really gone into the tank). There are a couple of sleepers in there like Feldman that you could say he should have tried for in hindsight. But that's always the case.

 

I'm giving Ryan one more year with this surplus and what looks to me at least to be a better class of free agents. If he goes back to the bargain bin, I will be the first one to rake him over the coals.

[Thegrin]

I think it is time to talk about TR's risk avoidance strategy. In football and basketball it is often said that the team that makes the least mistakes wins. In baseball they say, "Don't give them more than 27 outs." Why is running a BB front office so different?

TR trys to avoid obvious mistakes. He doesn't overpay players, just because other GM's are. He doesn't pay average pitchers as if they were studs. He tries not to make obviously stupid moves very often. Check back in 2 years and see if Myers or May has made an impact on the rotation. We may be remembering not Correia & Pelfrey fondly and saying 2013 as a bad year because of the failure of Myer and May. We'll be saying that we traded 2 major league hitters/center fielders for unproven prospects that the other team didn't want. What "obviously stupid" trades they turned out to be. TR takes risks when he thinks the results are worth the risk.

[The Wise One]

To the Cubs fans on this board. Epstient took over a club that was consistently finishing in second place, not a 90+ loss team. He refined a winning team, not built it.

If you want a model for the Twins to follow, try the Cards. Develop your talent. Trade for a little, FA a little. Same for the Reds. Comparing how the Twins should work to a large market team is folly.

[Oxtung]

To the Cubs fans on this board. Epstient took over a club that was consistently finishing in second place, not a 90+ loss team. He refined a winning team, not built it.

If you want a model for the Twins to follow, try the Cards. Develop your talent. Trade for a little, FA a little. Same for the Reds. Comparing how the Twins should work to a large market team is folly.

 

The Cubs had lost 87 games in 2010 then 91 games in 2011 before he was hired. In addition none of the FA moves made this past off season by Epstein were big moves that only a big market team could make. He added $28 million dollars in pitching payroll. The Twins had ~$32 million available just from losing Baker, Pavano, Liriano, Capps, etc...

[jokin]

Deploying Yes... Maximizing?

 

Epstein or Moyer have been busy... I will give them that... And I can even give them credit for that... They certainly appear to be trying... But it's still TBD if all this activity pays off down the road. The Cubs have not beaten the Twins at anything yet.

 

Bigger Hole? Based on records last year... The Cubs drafted 3rd and the Twins drafted 4th. The year before that the Twins drafted 2nd and the Cubs drafted 6th.

 

Both teams were in a hole... The bigger hole? We got to be talking inches if different at all.

 

Right now... The Cubs have one more win than we do.

 

Both teams have a long way to go and it was gonna take time to get back.

 

Using the Cubs as an example/argument... In my opinion... Seems to be a preference for how Epstein and Hoyer are going about it over Ryan. Yet... nobody has fixed it... Yet.

 

The "bigger hole" was all the unproductive contracts that had to be shed. They still are trying to unload Alfonso Soriano, it might be happening with the Yankees as we speak.

[The Wise One]

The Cubs had lost 87 games in 2010 then 91 games in 2011 before he was hired. In addition none of the FA moves made this past off season by Epstein were big moves that only a big market team could make. He added $28 million dollars in pitching payroll. The Twins had ~$32 million available just from losing Baker, Pavano, Liriano, Capps, etc...

 

The end result is the Cubs are still a 90 loss team, with a very slight improvement in team FIP. Big moves if you like, same results. woo hoo.

[TheLeviathan]

If you want a model for the Twins to follow, try the Cards. Develop your talent. Trade for a little, FA a little. Same for the Reds. Comparing how the Twins should work to a large market team is folly.

 

I know we're accustomed to saying such things, but the reality is - St. Louis got a compensation pick as part of competitive balance as did Cincy - we weren't in the running. By MLB's measure, we are a large market team. We're, at the very least, a mid market team.

[Oxtung]

The end result is the Cubs are still a 90 loss team, with a very slight improvement in team FIP. Big moves if you like, same results. woo hoo.

 

Yup, except the Cubs have 2 new players in their war chest to help them moving forward as well as Edwin Jackson, who despite getting off to a terrible start to the year, has been a good pitcher for going on 6 seasons now. How did the Twins use free agency to improve going forward?

[The Wise One]

Yup, except the Cubs have 2 new players in their war chest to help them moving forward as well as Edwin Jackson, who despite getting off to a terrible start to the year, has been a good pitcher for going on 6 seasons now. How did the Twins use free agency to improve going forward?

 

 

A sixth ininng reliever, and a pitcher in AAA. Ryan can find those all on his own without needing to trade a pitcher with an ERA+ of 114 to do so.

[The Wise One]

I know we're accustomed to saying such things, but the reality is - St. Louis got a compensation pick as part of competitive balance as did Cincy - we weren't in the running. By MLB's measure, we are a large market team. We're, at the very least, a mid market team.

Did that one competitive balance pick help them win on average 90 games a year since the turn of the century? You have done better arguments than that. In looking how an organization is built and maintained you can look at St Louis. That ONE competitive pick is not the reason they have done well

[Oxtung]

A sixth ininng reliever, and a pitcher in AAA. Ryan can find those all on his own without needing to trade a pitcher with an ERA+ of 114 to do so.

 

Strop has pitched 137 innings in his career. 109 of those have been in the 8th or 9th where he has an ERA of 2.95. Hardly the toss away you think he is. Arrieta is a 27 year old that was twice a top 100 prospect. While he hasn't performed well to date in the majors he clearly has talent. Perhaps these guys help in the future perhaps they don't, but a chance at helping the Cubs was created by Epstein's approach to free agency. I'll ask again, how did the Twins approach to free agency help the Twins towards competitiveness either this season or in future seasons?

[TheLeviathan]

Did that one competitive balance pick help them win on average 90 games a year since the turn of the century? You have done better arguments than that. In looking how an organization is built and maintained you can look at St Louis. That ONE competitive pick is not the reason they have done well

 

That wasn't even remotely my point. You are continuing a characterization of this team as "The little small market that could" - our revenues constitute a mid market team. We are closer to the big markets than we are the small.

[The Wise One]

That wasn't even remotely my point. You are continuing a characterization of this team as "The little small market that could" - our revenues constitute a mid market team. We are closer to the big markets than we are the small.

 

No. If you want to emulate someone else, pick a winning organization. Pure and simple. They were winners before there was a thing called competative balance picks.

Never said, nor hinted that the team was a little market who could. Never crossed my mind.

So what if the team is closer to a large market team than a small. If you are a winning organization you do not have to sign someone to your roster in hopes of getting a prospect or two. The better scenario is you gain prospects while giving an aged veteran a chance to play regularly again, That is, the talent you developed has pushed someone to the bench midseason.

[Major League Ready]

When looking at how he's pitched so far for the season, if one actually believe Pelfrey hasn't pitched that bad, then we need to re-examine what the phrase 'not that bad' means.

 

He's improving and I've said just recently that I expect him to be better than Correia for the remainder of the year, but he has pitched poorly considering the whole season and his performance is a factor in why we are as bad as we are. There are 90 pitchers who have pitched enough to qualify for stats. He's had enough starts to qualify, but hasn't quite given the Twins enough innings to qualify, which is one shot against the idea he hasn't been that bad. The second would be that if he had a couple more innings, he'd rank 86th out of 91 pitchers in ERA. The third would be that his WHIP is over 1.500.

 

I think many people wondered how he'd do going from the NL to the AL and wondered how he'd do after surgery. And while he's been doing well recently, I think many wondered why Ryan thought it was a good idea to sign a guy to let him rehab on a team clearly in need of pitching...especially considering Worley and Harden were also coming off injury and that the other piece was Correia.

 

Now, this is fair criticism. I thought if we were going to let Pelfrey rehab here we should have a TO for a 2nd year. There was alot of talk about how far ahead of schedule he was in his recovery. We can say now that was a mistake.

[The Wise One]

Strop has pitched 137 innings in his career. 109 of those have been in the 8th or 9th where he has an ERA of 2.95. Hardly the toss away you think he is. Arrieta is a 27 year old that was twice a top 100 prospect. While he hasn't performed well to date in the majors he clearly has talent. Perhaps these guys help in the future perhaps they don't, but a chance at helping the Cubs was created by Epstein's approach to free agency. I'll ask again, how did the Twins approach to free agency help the Twins towards competitiveness either this season or in future seasons?

 

How many of those 8/9 innings were when the club was losing? 154 career games. 36 career holds, 12 blown saves, 106 games where he then would have been filler.

Arrietta had 3 1/2 seasons with declining numbers. Yes he was a top 100 prospect. So was Adam Johnson.

 

The Twins approach in signing players without a contract is what it is. Patchwork.

[Major League Ready]

Only becomes a wash if everyone uses it...and it still has the ability to help the individual team get better if it's spent. I'm not expecting Ryan to sign any quality free agents this offseason...I mean why not wait until we're 'competitive'? ;-)

 

Looking at the numbers Forbes publishes, the money gets spent with the exception of the rebuilding teams. Some of them have been the most profitable. I don't know how anyone thinks that allocating an incremental $750 to all of the teams is going to help us in free agency, especially next year when every team has an additional $25 to spend. This will be the worst season in the history of free agency to attempt to sign quality FAs.

[TheLeviathan]

No. If you want to emulate someone else, pick a winning organization. Pure and simple. .

 

And with that I totally agree, but your comment about not competing with the large markets was my issue. We absolutely can the vast majority of the time. But I'm 100% with you on the Cards.

[Guest USAFChief]

A sixth ininng reliever, and a pitcher in AAA. Ryan can find those all on his own without needing to trade a pitcher with an ERA+ of 114 to do so.

And it's a good thing he can, because he seems to be having some trouble finding that pitcher with an ERA+ of 114.

[old nurse]

And it's a good thing he can, because he seems to be having some trouble finding that pitcher with an ERA+ of 114.

As this is a free agent thread, in the last two years only Buehrle, Wilson, Sanchez and Grienke have had ERA+ of 114. Cut the number in half if you go to 115. All clubs have problems finding a pitcher with 114 ERA+. But why have a fair criticism.

[old nurse]

And with that I totally agree, but your comment about not competing with the large markets was my issue. We absolutely can the vast majority of the time. But I'm 100% with you on the Cards.

You can win an occasional battle with a larger market team, but you are not going to win the war of money.