Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

[Major League Ready]

And with that I totally agree, but your comment about not competing with the large markets was my issue. We absolutely can the vast majority of the time. But I'm 100% with you on the Cards.

 

The Cards and Rays have to me the models to follow. Tampa is at the very bottom in terms of Revenue and they are keeping pace with Boston & NY. Boston has roughly double the Rays revenue and NY almost triple. We just be hiring someone from their organization to teach our organization how to draft and develop pitching.

[TheLeviathan]

You can win an occasional battle with a larger market team, but you are not going to win the war of money.

 

I would LOVE to win a few battles. Thats exactly my point!

 

And I am all for hiring some Rays people...they know their pitching.

[jokin]

Now, this is fair criticism. I thought if we were going to let Pelfrey rehab here we should have a TO for a 2nd year. There was alot of talk about how far ahead of schedule he was in his recovery. We can say now that was a mistake.

 

And we could say it at the time of the signing, as well.

 

I really like Pelfrey personally. He's a guy who's clearly a leader and asset in the clubhouse. I predicted early on that the Twins would make a decent effort at re-signing him with an extended, incentive-laden contract. But the terms of the original signing, given the rest of the implemented "plan" was clearly a mistake from Day 1. On that very day, many of us were wondering how someone thought it was smart not to have a TO for the second year as part of the deal for letting him rehab for 2 months on the major league level.

[jokin]

I would LOVE to win a few battles. Thats exactly my point!

 

And I am all for hiring some Rays people...they know their pitching.

 

Precisely. And it goes deeper than that, RE: rather than the prolonged and eternal angst about trading Santana and Liriano and having little to show for their efforts, look at how the Rays deal with their top SPs. Matt Garza is a perfect example, instead of getting hosed, like the Twins did when they sent Garza to the Rays, the Rays got Chris Archer, Sam Fuld and Hak-Ju Lee.

 

They also were unafraid to shop Shields and get maximum value in return. What the heck, they are even shamelessly shopping David Price as we speak.

[Oxtung]

How many of those 8/9 innings were when the club was losing? 154 career games. 36 career holds, 12 blown saves, 106 games where he then would have been filler.

Arrietta had 3 1/2 seasons with declining numbers. Yes he was a top 100 prospect. So was Adam Johnson.

 

The Twins approach in signing players without a contract is what it is. Patchwork.

 

90 of Strop's appearances came in games that were either tied or within 1 run. 74 of his appearances were in high leverage situations with another 59 in medium leverage. Only 36 of his appearances were in blowouts.

 

This is going in circles and is beside the point. The fact is the Cubs leveraged free agency into three assets that could help them become more competitive in future seasons. The Twins added nothing that will help make that push. That is disappointing to me.

[cmb0252]

Precisely. And it goes deeper than that, RE: rather than the prolonged and eternal angst about trading Santana and Liriano and having little to show for their efforts, look at how the Rays deal with their top SPs. Matt Garza is a perfect example, instead of getting hosed, like the Twins did when they sent Garza to the Rays, the Rays got Chris Archer, Sam Fuld and Hak-Ju Lee.

 

They also were unafraid to shop Shields and get maximum value in return. What the heck, they are even shamelessly shopping David Price as we speak.

 

Rays are the masters of selling high, while we, are the masters of selling low.

[jay]

The Cubs front office certainly has the right track record and they definitely get points for aggressively pursuing every avenue possible for talent acquisition. I thought I'd try to compare their SP acquisitions this offseason to the Twins actions (or lack thereof).

 

Villanueva - 2 yr / $10M (signed 1/26) = Correia - 2 yr / $10M (signed 12/13)

Villanueva has a slightly better K rate, but his overall numbers look better from his performance as a reliever. In all reality, these two are basically a wash.

 

Baker - 1 yr / $5.5M (11/13) < Pelfrey - 1 yr / $4M (12/20)

Both recovering TJ guys. Baker hasn't pitched, while Pelfrey struggled and has subsequently shown improvement. Baker had more upside from the start, but Pelfrey was acknowleged to be further along in his recovery.

 

Feldman - 1 yr / $6M (11/27) > Failed Attempts to Sign Another SP

Hard to say if the Twins were in here, but the Cubs get credit for being aggressive and setting the market early. This is the move they get the most kudos for and turning him into a couple of chips (Strop and Arrieta). I wonder if the tune would be different had TR successfully gotten a guy like Saunders or any of the others he was in on, but it's certainly disappointing that the money never got spent.

 

E Jackson - 4 yr / $52M > well, nothing to compare it to literally ever.

 

Overall, I'll hope the Twins sign a higher second tier guy like EJ this offseason. If we focus in on the shorter term deals, the Cubs committed $21.5M to three guys while the Twins committed $14M to two guys. In contrast to each other, the Cubs have a swing man, a half a season of Feldman, and two former prospects to show for it while the Twins have a #5 and whatever (debatable) value Pelfrey generates going forward.

 

The Cubs were more aggressive and did get guys that had more "upside". I can certainly agree with and support their overall strategy, but I'm not completely sold that the $7.5M difference is worth the difference in what they got -- especially in relation to the overwhelmingly positive praise they get for these moves.

[kab21]

Why don't the Twins don't get any points for exploring the trade route and getting Worley and two pretty good prospects? Isn't that being aggressive and looking further down the road than just one season?

 

The Feldman sign and trade ended up being great for the Cubs but the Cubs love on this board is getting a little ridiculous.

[ThePuck]

Why don't the Twins don't get any points for exploring the trade route and getting Worley and two pretty good prospects? Isn't that being aggressive and looking further down the road than just one season?

 

The Feldman sign and trade ended up being great for the Cubs but the Cubs love on this board is getting a little ridiculous.

 

How much more credit do you want people to give him for the Span and Revere trade? Seems most everyone on this board has said he did a good job with those trades.

[jokin]

The Cubs front office certainly has the right track record and they definitely get points for aggressively pursuing every avenue possible for talent acquisition. I thought I'd try to compare their SP acquisitions this offseason to the Twins actions (or lack thereof).

 

Villanueva - 2 yr / $10M (signed 1/26) = Correia - 2 yr / $10M (signed 12/13)

Villanueva has a slightly better K rate, but his overall numbers look better from his performance as a reliever. In all reality, these two are basically a wash.

 

Baker - 1 yr / $5.5M (11/13) < Pelfrey - 1 yr / $4M (12/20)

Both recovering TJ guys. Baker hasn't pitched, while Pelfrey struggled and has subsequently shown improvement. Baker had more upside from the start, but Pelfrey was acknowleged to be further along in his recovery.

 

Feldman - 1 yr / $6M (11/27) > Failed Attempts to Sign Another SP

Hard to say if the Twins were in here, but the Cubs get credit for being aggressive and setting the market early. This is the move they get the most kudos for and turning him into a couple of chips (Strop and Arrieta). I wonder if the tune would be different had TR successfully gotten a guy like Saunders or any of the others he was in on, but it's certainly disappointing that the money never got spent.

 

E Jackson - 4 yr / $52M > well, nothing to compare it to literally ever.

 

Overall, I'll hope the Twins sign a higher second tier guy like EJ this offseason. If we focus in on the shorter term deals, the Cubs committed $21.5M to three guys while the Twins committed $14M to two guys. In contrast to each other, the Cubs have a swing man, a half a season of Feldman, and two former prospects to show for it while the Twins have a #5 and whatever (debatable) value Pelfrey generates going forward.

 

The Cubs were more aggressive and did get guys that had more "upside". I can certainly agree with and support their overall strategy, but I'm not completely sold that the $7.5M difference is worth the difference in what they got -- especially in relation to the overwhelmingly positive praise they get for these moves.

 

Good comparative breakdown. But.......

 

The Cubs also got two slots for the International Draft from these moves, that helped them in locking up the #1, #3 and #22 rated players. If Strop continues pitching anywhere close to his current lights out level, he too is a very cheaply acquired asset and cheap forward- cost asset, either to the Cubs team or as a trading chip down the road. And Arrieta is basically a much cheaper costing repeat-version of the bet they made on Feldman.

 

And they stand a much better chance of gaining value in a trade for Villenueva than the Twins do in trading Correia.

[jokin]

Why don't the Twins don't get any points for exploring the trade route and getting Worley and two pretty good prospects? Isn't that being aggressive and looking further down the road than just one season?

 

The Feldman sign and trade ended up being great for the Cubs but the Cubs love on this board is getting a little ridiculous.

 

The Twins gave up a lot more to get those assets than the Cubs did to get their assets.

[Major League Ready]

Precisely. And it goes deeper than that, RE: rather than the prolonged and eternal angst about trading Santana and Liriano and having little to show for their efforts, look at how the Rays deal with their top SPs. Matt Garza is a perfect example, instead of getting hosed, like the Twins did when they sent Garza to the Rays, the Rays got Chris Archer, Sam Fuld and Hak-Ju Lee.

 

They also were unafraid to shop Shields and get maximum value in return. What the heck, they are even shamelessly shopping David Price as we speak.

 

The Rays definitely know how to lock up early and how to sell high. The flip side is that if the Twins followed this message there are many on this site that would be extremely critical. They would be hating the Twins for being cheap. Can't have it both ways. Personally, I would follow their model but we would be able to keep a couple more top tier guys as our revenue is 40-50M more than the Rays.

[drjim]

The Twins gave up a lot more to get those assets than the Cubs did to get their assets.

 

But the assets the Twins received are also far superior.

 

Good trade for the Cubs. Good trade for the Twins.

[jay]

Good comparative breakdown. But.......

 

The Cubs also got two slots for the International Draft from these moves, that helped them in locking up the #1, #3 and #22 rated players. If Strop continues pitching anywhere close to his current lights out level, he too is a very cheaply acquired asset and cheap forward- cost asset, either to the Cubs team or as a trading chip down the road. And Arrieta is basically a much cheaper costing repeat-version of the bet they made on Feldman.

 

And they stand a much better chance of gaining value in a trade for Villenueva than the Twins do in trading Correia.

 

Strop and Arrieta both have some level of upside, but that's been discussed to death already. My point was from a pure $$$'s standpoint, I'm not sure those two are worth the extra $7.5M the Cubs spent -- especially in relation to the overwhelming love they are getting here for it.

 

Even if we add the $388k Int'l slot, that crumb isn't what got them the #1, #3, and #22 rated Int'l players and it seems a bit disingenuous to insinuate that it did. None of those three you cited signed for less than $1.625M.

[kab21]

How much more credit do you want people to give him for the Span and Revere trade? Seems most everyone on this board has said he did a good job with those trades.

 

The board is acting like he wasn't aggressive nor creative last offseason. I would consider that both aggressive and creative.

[jokin]

The board is acting like he wasn't aggressive nor creative last offseason. I would consider that both aggressive and creative.

 

1) What was creative in doing a deal with a club that had been pining for Denard Span for the last 3 years?

 

2) What was creative in doing a deal with a club that called out of the blue and made TR an offer he couldn't refuse?

 

Kudos to TR for acting aggressively with these 2 deals and doing what had to be done to change the direction of the club back in the right direction, but I see no creativity on his part in the process. And thie Twins situation required, and had the room available in financial terms to be even more aggressive.

 

The Cubs are being far more creative and aggressive in digging out of a much deeper hole- and admitting publicly that they are in full-rebuild.

[Thegrin]

1) What was creative in doing a deal with a club that had been pining for Denard Span for the last 3 years?

 

2) What was creative in doing a deal with a club that called out of the blue and made TR an offer he couldn't refuse?

 

Kudos to TR for acting aggressively with these 2 deals and doing what had to be done to change the direction of the club back in the right direction, but I see no creativity on his part in the process. And thie Twins situation required, and had the room available in financial terms to be even more aggressive.

 

The Cubs are being far more creative and aggressive in digging out of a much deeper hole- and admitting publicly that they are in full-rebuild.

 

If and when May and or Myers don't turn out to be Major League pitchers, you will probably be complaining about Ryan's "poor judgement". Being a Major League General Manager is a tough job. You need to take risks and some people will be critical no matter what you do.

[jokin]

Strop and Arrieta both have some level of upside, but that's been discussed to death already. My point was from a pure $$$'s standpoint, I'm not sure those two are worth the extra $7.5M the Cubs spent -- especially in relation to the overwhelming love they are getting here for it.

 

Even if we add the $388k Int'l slot, that crumb isn't what got them the #1, #3, and #22 rated Int'l players and it seems a bit disingenuous to insinuate that it did. None of those three you cited signed for less than $1.625M.

 

Not disingenuous at all. In the world of International bonus money, #388K is hardly a "crumb". Had the Cubs stopped their flurry of multiple international signings before their recent signing of Tseng, these additional acquired monies would have kept the Cubs from going over thresholds levels for maximum overage signing penalties. This "crumb" would have kept the Cubs in the game for signing international players in both 2014 and 2015 for more than $250K.

 

That strategy changed in the last few days, as apparently Tseng's potential availability became more possible (and simultaneous apparent unwillingness by the Twins to outbid the Cubs), and changed the Cubs initial strategy at the time of the Feldman trade to only sign players within the spending limits, and accept the penalties for the $1.059M overage of their pool limit as an acceptable tradeoff for acquiring Tseng's potential talents.

[jokin]

If and when May and or Myers don't turn out to be Major League pitchers, you will probably be complaining about Ryan's "poor judgement". Being a Major League General Manager is a tough job. You need to take risks and some people will be critical no matter what you do.

 

Did you miss the part of my post that said: "Kudos to TR for acting aggressively and doing what had to be done to change the direction of the club back in the right direction"?

[drjim]

The Cubs are being far more creative and aggressive in digging out of a much deeper hole- and admitting publicly that they are in full-rebuild.

 

I'll grant you aggressive and creative, but remains to ve seen if they are effective. And I'm not sure Cubs were in a bigger hole when Epstein took over compared to the Twins and Ryan.

[drjim]

Not disingenuous at all. In the world of International bonus money, #388K is hardly a "crumb". Had the Cubs stopped their flurry of multiple international signings before their recent signing of Tseng, these additional acquired monies would have kept the Cubs from going over thresholds levels for maximum overage signing penalties. This "crumb" would have kept the Cubs in the game for signing international players in both 2014 and 2015 for more than $250K.

 

That strategy changed in the last few days, as apparently Tseng's potential availability became more possible (and simultaneous apparent unwillingness by the Twins to outbid the Cubs), and changed the Cubs initial strategy at the time of the Feldman trade to only sign players within the spending limits, and accept the penalties for the $1.059M overage of their pool limit as an acceptable tradeoff for acquiring Tseng's potential talents.

 

I'm not sure of your math here. Cubs were over before they got Tseng. The Twins would have had to go over their budget to acquire him, not sure that is the best strategy. It remains to be seen if this is wiser long term strategy. Cubs will have a decent sized pool and won't be able to sign a guy above $250k, not sure if taking yourself out of next year is worth that.