Kendry Rojas Brings Huge Upside, and Serious Command Questions

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images

There’s been a noticeable shift in the narrative around Twins pitching prospect (Twins Daily’s No. 8 prospect) Kendry Rojas. At this time last year, Rojas looked like the type of pitcher you could realistically envision slotting into the middle of a major-league rotation in a couple years. The 6-foot-2 left-hander has the frame and swing-and-miss ability teams covet in modern starters, and we saw plenty of that during the first half of 2025. 

But there’s also some fine-tuning that needs to happen first, and right now, that part of the equation is becoming harder to ignore. Before being acquired from Toronto at last year’s trade deadline, Rojas was carving up minor-league hitters like he was a butcher at a meat shop. Hitters simply had no answers for him. Across 31 2/3 innings between Single-A and Double-A in the Blue Jays organization, Rojas allowed just eight earned runs while striking out 58 batters and walking only five. That works out to an absurd 11.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, with a walk rate sitting just north of 4%. He looked like a man amongst boys.

Because of that success, Rojas quickly emerged as one of Toronto’s top pitching prospects. Then, at last year’s trade deadline, he was dealt to Minnesota alongside Alan Roden in the package for Louis Varland and Ty France. That acquisition looked like exactly the kind of upside swing the Twins needed to take at the time. But things changed once Rojas reached Triple-A.

After a three-month stretch of dominance to begin the year, he very much struggled in St. Paul. In 27 1/3 innings with the Saints last season, his ERA ballooned to 6.59, but more concerning than the run prevention (or lack thereof) was his command (or lack thereof). For the first time in his professional career, there were legitimate concerns surrounding Rojas’s ability to consistently throw strikes. His walk rate climbed all the way to 16%, and suddenly, his profile looked a lot different than the one we had seen earlier in the year. Instead of a polished strike-thrower with electric stuff, Rojas began to look more like a talented arm still searching for consistency.

Now, to be fair, there were a lot of moving parts involved. A midseason trade and a jump to Triple-A. New coaches, new catchers, a new organization: it was a different environment entirely.

Heading into 2026, the hope was that a fresh start (along with some sharper command) would quickly put a lot of those concerns to bed. While his walk numbers in the minors have improved this year, injuries and an inconsistent bullpen opened the door for Rojas to make his debut earlier than the Twins probably envisioned.

Through his first 5 1/3 innings with the Twins—which, of course, is an extremely small sample—the results have been pretty concerning. Rojas has walked six batters, giving him a frightening 24% walk rate at the major-league level. To make matters worse, hitters are punishing the mistakes he does leave over the plate.

Opposing hitters already have seven hits against him, along with a 50% hard-hit rate. Technically, he's allowed just one earned run, but the expected metrics paint a far uglier picture. His 7.06 expected ERA feels significantly more representative of how he’s actually pitched than the traditional ERA does.

When Rojas misses out of the zone, it’s often not even close, and major-league hitters simply are not chasing those pitches. But when he does come back into the zone, the contact quality against him has been loud. That’s not exactly a sustainable formula for success.

It’s fair to wonder if there’s a velocity component playing a role here. Rojas’s fastball and slider, his two primary pitches, are both sitting roughly 1.5 MPH harder than they did a season ago. Added velocity is usually a positive in the bigger picture, but it can sometimes create temporary command issues while pitchers learn how to repeat their mechanics at that new level of effort.

That’s not uncommon at all. But at the same time, that explanation only goes so far when you factor in the command problems we already saw during his Triple-A stint last season. The concerns aren’t brand new anymore, and that’s what makes the rest of this year so important for him.

Rojas absolutely still has the size and raw stuff to become an effective major-league pitcher. Left-handers with this kind of talent don’t grow on trees, and there’s still very real upside here if he can harness everything consistently. But a 24% walk rate is simply unplayable at the major league level. Even if that number were cut in half, that would still be considered quite high for a starting pitcher.

Can pitchers survive with elevated walk rates? Sure. But if that’s going to happen, everything else in their profile has to play up. The strikeout numbers need to be elite; the contact suppression needs to be elite; and the stuff needs to completely overpower hitters. More often than not, that skill set tends to align more naturally with a reliever working shorter outings, rather than a starter trying to turn a lineup over multiple times.

The rest of 2026 could be the year we learn what his long-term role is. His upside is undeniable, but if the command never takes the step forward the Twins need it to, there’s arguably just as much downside attached to his profile. It’s far too early to say with certainty, but right now we’re seeing a lot more of the downside scenario.

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[Patzky]

I'd say yes there are concerns but Rojas is 23 years old and still evolving at this level. So long as you aren't expecting Pablo Lopez control, and admitting we're retooling (rebuilding) I'm fine with him getting occasional starts or bullpen games as need arises.

[Nshore]

The Varland trade has the potential to be one of the worst in Twins history.  It was so bad, Falvey quit his job and went into the witness protection program.  I often wonder if teams hype prospects in order to lure naive GMs into dumb trades.  If Rojas was so great, why has he had to add velocity to his stuff, which has thrown everything out of wack?

[weitz41]

22 minutes ago, Nshore said:

The Varland trade has the potential to be one of the worst in Twins history.  It was so bad, Falvey quit his job and went into the witness protection program.  I often wonder if teams hype prospects in order to lure naive GMs into dumb trades.  If Rojas was so great, why has he had to add velocity to his stuff, which has thrown everything out of wack?

I'm not a big fan of trading for pop up players which is really what Rojas was when they traded for him.

Trading a reliever that we don't have the BP to get the ball to is the worst trade in Twins history? Carlos Santana says WHAT? 

He has a total of 5.2 innings in MLB and a .2 WAR

A 2.438 WHIP...So the concerns are legit. Let's hold off till he has 40 innings to get too high or low on him.

[ziggy]

The list of pitchers with electric stuff but struggle to throw strikes is endless.

I hope Rojas does not end up on the list.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I commented about this on a different thread recently. He has potential, but that control is a major concern, especially when its not improving much, even at AAA. He also hasn't really shown the ability to handle a starters work load. The lack of control will generally lead to higher pitch counts early and a worn out bullpen. With that said, The Varland trade was and is a head scratcher for me. At the time, i was quite disappointed it even happened and still am. Unless Rojas is able to clear a lot of hurdles (Please prove me wrong), I see best case scenario is hoping he turns into a Louis Varland and dominates in the pen. 

I like the potential, but there are countless stories of pitchers with potential that couldn't figure it out 

[bjorks]

Some of the comments are biased partly because Varland is having another solid year and he's a hometown kid. But consider the following; 

1) Prior to deadline, Rojas was #3 pitching prospect behind Yesavage and many had him #2 with Tiedemann coming of TJ. He was on the borderline of most of the Top 100 lists from last summer;

2) He pitched at 4 levels in 25 and the Twins are the ones who have put this pitch count (>60) on him. Point being he's been up-and-down with his control, but he's also consistently been younger than the batters he's facing in the minors. He was fast tracked through the minors;

3) In the Twins case last year, you trade relievers for starters (with potential/helium) 10-out-10. Is anyone crying about trading Jax anymore for arguably our best SP for the first 1/4 of the season? 

Nobody wants to give Rojas a chance to adjust to a new team/city/league (minors and majors). The Varland/France trade is what it is, but saying the trade was bad or he's unproven to be a starter is short sighted thinking. 

[David Maro]

He reminds me of Moran,all the stuff to get hitters out but can't throw strikes. He is throwing now not pitching. If I were him I would be bending Pablo's ear on how to pitch. Might need to throw 95-96 not 98 to get control.

[PRedig]

14 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I'm not a big fan of trading for pop up players which is really what Rojas was when they traded for him.

Trading a reliever that we don't have the BP to get the ball to is the worst trade in Twins history? Carlos Santana says WHAT? 

He has a total of 5.2 innings in MLB and a .2 WAR

A 2.438 WHIP...So the concerns are legit. Let's hold off till he has 40 innings to get too high or low on him.

Idk if Carlos Santana would say much because he's busy singing about a Black Magic Woman.  Now Johan may have something to say about it lol

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Nshore said:

The Varland trade has the potential to be one of the worst in Twins history.  It was so bad, Falvey quit his job and went into the witness protection program.  I often wonder if teams hype prospects in order to lure naive GMs into dumb trades.  If Rojas was so great, why has he had to add velocity to his stuff, which has thrown everything out of wack?

He’s 23 ……. the 24% walk rate is from 5 1/3 innings of MLB work.

…….as I pointed out earlier this week, Louie debuted in MLB at age 24 ……… at age 26 he was 0-5 with a 7.61 ERA…… he’s now 28 and performing at a top level in MLB. In June of ‘24 he was a major disappointment as a starter.

Gotta take a breath. Is Rojas a guaranteed success story, nope………but he’s got talent, coaches to help, & time to develop.