New(ish) Pitches, Total Command, and Other Observations from Joe Ryan’s Opening Day Start

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Opening Day didn't go according to plan for the Twins, who fell 2-1 against the Baltimore Orioles in a game that felt winnable from the first inning to the last. Minnesota created traffic all afternoon, but failed to capitalize, finishing just 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position while grounding into three double plays.

The difference came late. A string of singles and a sacrifice fly in the seventh inning against Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa pushed Baltimore ahead, and the Twins never recovered. It spoiled a very strong showing on the mound from Joe Ryan, who looked every bit like a frontline starter.

For the Twins to stay competitive this season, Ryan must be at the top of his game. There were plenty of encouraging signs from Ryan’s outing, even if the final result did not reflect it. Here are four observations from his 2026 debut.

Fastball Velocity Back
One of the biggest storylines from spring training was Ryan’s dip in velocity. In his final Grapefruit League start, his fastball averaged just 91.9 miles per hour, raising some concern about how his stuff would play when the games started to matter. He also dealt with a back issue that kept him from participating in the World Baseball Classic. It was easier for fans to be worried about his performance because of the injury issue, though it appeared to have been resolved.

However, that concern disappeared quickly on Thursday. Ryan averaged 93.9 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball and touched 96 early in the game. That's not just a return to form; it is slightly above last year’s 93.7 average.

The added life showed up in the results. Ryan generated 16 swinging strikes on 85 pitches, including five on the fastball alone. He struck out seven hitters across 5 1/3 innings, consistently beating Orioles hitters at the top of the zone.

In Command
Velocity is one thing, but Ryan’s outing was defined by how well he controlled the baseball. He attacked a dangerous Baltimore lineup and rarely fell behind.

Ryan allowed just one hit while pitching into the sixth inning and walked only two of the 19 batters he faced. He filled up the zone with 58 strikes on 85 pitches and avoided damaging contact almost entirely. Only four balls were hit hard into fair territory: two fly balls, one ground ball, and one line drive.

He used a six-pitch mix to keep batters off-balance all day. It was the kind of outing that demonstrates why Ryan’s profile works so well when everything is synced up. He doesn't need to overpower hitters when he's locating at that level.

Curve Versus Sweeper
A more subtle but intriguing development was Ryan’s pitch mix. He featured both a curveball and a sweeper, and while they may look similar at a glance, the differences matter.

The sweeper averaged 79.9 miles per hour and showed more horizontal movement, cutting across the zone (see photo above). The curveball came in slightly slower at 78.7 miles per hour, with more vertical depth. That separation, even if small, forces hitters to make quicker decisions and can lead to uncomfortable swings or poor contact. Last season, he threw the curveball only 4% of the time, but it generated a 42.3 Whiff%.

If Ryan can consistently differentiate those two shapes, it gives him another way to disrupt timing, especially against lineups that are geared to handle his fastball. The curve is a better pitch against lefties, in particular, than the sweeper is.

New Slider
Ryan also debuted a tweaked version of his slider. In previous seasons, it often behaved more like a cutter, blending into his fastball shape. On Thursday, it showed more depth and a slightly reduced velocity.

The pitch averaged 87.5 miles per hour, down slightly from 87.9 last season, but the bigger change was in its movement. It had less of the rising action that defined last year’s version, and instead featured a more traditional slider break.

He only threw it seven times, so it is a small sample, but the adjustment is worth watching. If it becomes a consistent weapon, it could help him better handle hitters on both sides of the plate.

The Twins may have dropped their opener, but Ryan gave them exactly what they needed from the front of the rotation. He looked healthy, his velocity returned, and his command was as sharp as ever. Add in a few subtle pitch mix changes, and there's reason to believe he has another level to reach. That should be a scary proposition for the AL Central. 

If this is the version of Joe Ryan the Twins are getting in 2026, the results will follow, even if Opening Day didn't go their way.

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What stood out about Ryan’s performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

How many innings per game will Joe Ryan be allow to pitch? The Joe Ryan Experience was on full display yesterday and the results were terrific. 

[jmlease1]

Love Joe Ryan. Really fun pitcher to watch work. Wish we could extend him.

[TroyVang]

I hope he can keep it up all year! He’ll really be able to help the Red Sox down the stretch.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, TroyVang said:

I hope he can keep it up all year! He’ll really be able to help the Red Sox down the stretch.

You spelled METS wrong.

[TroyVang]

43 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

You spelled METS wrong.

The team wasn’t the point, I don’t care about Sox, Mets, whatever. it’s that he sadly won’t be with the Twins.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Love Joe Ryan. Really fun pitcher to watch work. Wish we could extend him.

The Twins will not pay for that which is why he needs to be traded by the deadline for max value... unfortunately...

[jmlease1]

51 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

The Twins will not pay for that which is why he needs to be traded by the deadline for max value... unfortunately...

He also has an agent that prefers to let players go to free agency, especially guys who have made enough or are eligible to make enough through arbitration that they're already set for life.

Sucks to be a franchise that people treat as the stepping stone.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

You spelled METS wrong.

Nah. Mets got their guy in Peralta already. They'll trade for bullpen arms again. 

Still disappointed the Mets and Twins didn't match up. I would have loved Jett Williams on the Twins. I still think he would have been the opening day SS. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Nah. Mets got their guy in Peralta already. They'll trade for bullpen arms again. 

Still disappointed the Mets and Twins didn't match up. I would have loved Jett Williams on the Twins. I still think he would have been the opening day SS. 

You might recall that I thought the twins and Mets matched up well this off-season.  I think that was a great opportunity blown.    A high ceiling / near ready middle infielder like Williams is just what we need.   Who do you think they could have received as the 2nd piece?  Reimer?  Tong or Sproat would have been great but I doubt the Mets would have given up Williams and a 55 grade SP prospect.

[NYCTK]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You might recall that I thought the twins and Mets matched up well this off-season.  I think that was a great opportunity blown.    A high ceiling / near ready middle infielder like Williams is just what we need.   Who do you think they could have received as the 2nd piece?  Reimer?  Tong or Sproat would have been great but I doubt the Mets would have given up Williams and a 55 grade SP prospect.

It's not impossible they could have gotten Sproat or Jack Wenninger for the two years of Ryan. Brewers sent Tobias Myers which helped get the second Top 100 guy in Sproat, so it's hard to say, especially since the Twins lacked someone to add to the deal like Myers.

Maybe Vientos. He's out of options and his defense is atrocious and I was hoping he got the chance to go elsewhere where he could play 1B/DH every day, and the Mets couldn't have asked for much in return. 

I think Jett and Vientos would have been really fun return for Ryan. High value athlete, and big bopper at 1B who'd have been no worse than Bell on defense. Maybe one of the many AA pitchers as a third for funsies. 

[jkcarew]

The most amazing thing about Ryan is how well he’s been pretending that he’s fine with the Twins not having moved him to a team that’s trying during the offseason.

I expect to see some cracks in that mask long before the deadline.

[AceWrigley]

11 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The most amazing thing about Ryan is how well he’s been pretending that he’s fine with the Twins not having moved him to a team that’s trying during the offseason.

I expect to see some cracks in that mask long before the deadline.

And days like yesterday (opening day 2-1 bullpen loss) probably don't help.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

He also has an agent that prefers to let players go to free agency, especially guys who have made enough or are eligible to make enough through arbitration that they're already set for life.

Sucks to be a franchise that people treat as the stepping stone.

Depends on how much money one requires to be "set for life".