Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think everyone agrees that you don't trade Perk to trade him. You do it for supreme talent, and at positions of need.

 

This is reason 1 why I don't like Castellanos. While he's a top 20 prospect, he fits into an area where the Twins already have a glut of players... and to add to it, Detroit's system sucks outside of him, so no help at pitching or the middle infield worth bragging about.

 

The most likely trading partners are Arizona and Boston, as both have needs there and have the guys that match up. Levi already mentioned Owings, Bradly, and Skaggs. AZ might be desperate enough to part with one of those guys. In Boston, there's Bogarts, Marerro, Barnes, Raunado, and Webster. All of them fit nicely into the Twins needs too.

[jorgenswest]

Should the Twins trade Perkins for Webster straight up?

 

That would be better return than any other reliever has seen in the last three summers. I am not sure the Red Sox would make the deal, but maybe his small sample poor trial at the major league level may have lowered his status in their view.

[Jim H]

I don't see Perkins being traded. Mostly, I don't because, despite everything, I don't think they are that far from contending. If you are going to contend without a very good rotation, you better have a deep, very strong bullpen. Much like the Twins managed to do in the early party of this century. You can argue that closers are overrated if you like, but if you remove Perkins, you shorten up the whole bullpen.

 

Now the Twins as currently constructed are a pretty flawed team. But some of those flaws might be fixed with experience(Hicks, Dozier and others). Some of the other flaws will be fixed if some of the high end prospects fullfill their promise sooner than expected.

The big problem is that it is tough to see the Twins coming up with 5 dominating starters real soon. A dominating bullpen that could cover up some for an average rotation would be easier for the Twins to come up with. Especially if they hang onto to Perkins for awhile.

[Thrylos]

The Twins got to sell high. And remember where he was 3 years ago. Very possible that another failed starter will step up to be a closer for the Twins.

 

They got to do it, especially if someone is willing to overpay...

[markos]

I think everyone agrees that you don't trade Perk to trade him. You do it for supreme talent, and at positions of need.

 

This is reason 1 why I don't like Castellanos. While he's a top 20 prospect, he fits into an area where the Twins already have a glut of players... and to add to it, Detroit's system sucks outside of him, so no help at pitching or the middle infield worth bragging about.

 

The most likely trading partners are Arizona and Boston, as both have needs there and have the guys that match up. Levi already mentioned Owings, Bradly, and Skaggs. AZ might be desperate enough to part with one of those guys. In Boston, there's Bogarts, Marerro, Barnes, Raunado, and Webster. All of them fit nicely into the Twins needs too.

 

I agree. Boston and Arizona seem like the best fits right now. I'm kind of warming up to the idea of making a deal with the Dodgers. Zach Lee and Corey Seager have both played pretty well this year, and Lee is already at AA. A deal headlined with Lee and maybe one or two C prospect with upside wouldn't be too disappointing. I'd prefer to get a blue-chip prospect, but there aren't many prospect-team-need matches right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree. Boston and Arizona seem like the best fits right now. I'm kind of warming up to the idea of making a deal with the Dodgers. Zach Lee and Corey Seager have both played pretty well this year, and Lee is already at AA. A deal headlined with Lee and maybe one or two C prospect with upside wouldn't be too disappointing. I'd prefer to get a blue-chip prospect, but there aren't many prospect-team-need matches right now.

 

Zach Lee is pretty close to a blue chip prospect. I'd rather have one of the RedSox trio of starters, but Lee isn't a bad consolation prize.

[joeboo_22]

They should be open to trading Perkins but I think it has to be a no doubt issue, and I'm against trading him within the division. He is too young and cheap, its one thing to trade him for pieces to help you for the coming decade, but if you have to play against him for the next decade it makes the trade haul a little less attractive.

 

I guess what it would take for me is a top 30 prospect starting pitcher in AA(Alex Myerish) or higher, a major league caliber middle infielder who is a B+ prospect (something like a Florimon who hits a tad better). And then a AA B/c pitching prospect (Treinen for Nats) and then a lower level prospect who has some upside potential (like a Beckham for the Rays)

 

And I just don't know if a team who is contention is willing to make that trade. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't

[jorgenswest]

The Twins got to sell high. And remember where he was 3 years ago. Very possible that another failed starter will step up to be a closer for the Twins.

 

They got to do it, especially if someone is willing to overpay...

 

These guys are beyond the comps, but would you trade straight up for either Zach Lee or Allen Webster?

 

I think either of those guys would be overpaying based on the market the last three years. Reading the suggestions in these pages almost guarantees that the return will be a disappointment.

[Thrylos]

These guys are beyond the comps, but would you trade straight up for either Zach Lee or Allen Webster?

 

I think either of those guys would be overpaying based on the market the last three years. Reading the suggestions in these pages almost guarantees that the return will be a disappointment.

 

I think that the Twins would be crazy not to do this....

[jorgenswest]

I think that the Twins would be crazy not to do this....

 

I agree.

[gunnarthor]

Here's a write up on the 3 Red Sox pitchers. I would think that the Twins would be happy with one of them as a centerpiece in a deal. None of them would be a true ace but would probably slot behind a healthy Meyer and ahead of a healthy Gibson.

[DaveW]

If the Twins are going to be relying on young strike out pitchers like Meyer and may in the coming years they better have a very deep pen. Trading Perkins makes the pen that much weaker. Young strike out pitchers will usually give you 6 innings tops at this point. You need not only a shut down 8th and 9th guy but a really nice 7th inning guy as well. We are one third there with Perkins, hopefully Tonkin and burton can be the other two.

 

Again, keep him unless you get an offer that absolutely blows you away.

[JB_Iowa]

When those of you who make suggestions about possibilities do so, it would be very helpful if you would use AND or OR so we can tell exactly what you are talking about. (e.g. top 30 starting pitching prospect OR x shortstop, etc.)

 

It gets really hard to tell what type of return people think the Twins could actually expect.

 

Thank you.

[jorgenswest]

Here's a write up on the 3 Red Sox pitchers. I would think that the Twins would be happy with one of them as a centerpiece in a deal. None of them would be a true ace but would probably slot behind a healthy Meyer and ahead of a healthy Gibson.

 

The Twins would be fortunate to get Webster or Barnes as the only piece. Ranaudo has had more ups and downs. Right now the Twins would be buying high. Maybe he has figured it out his second time through AA. He might be the kind of return a reliever can get. If the Twins go his direction, they will need to see him and also seek video from when he was struggling.

[Mike Sixel]

Doesn't matter how good your bullpen is, if your starters are the worst in baseball. They need more pitching, they won't pay for it on the open market, so they better trade for it.

 

May, Meyer, Gibson, and, ummmmmm what after that? They need more arms, no doubt about it. Oh, and I think May and Meyer start next year in AAA.....so they better find more arms.

[Brock Beauchamp]

May, Meyer, Gibson, and, ummmmmm what after that?

 

Berrios, Stewart, possibly Albers.

 

But your point stands. The Twins need starters and lots of 'em.

[Mike Sixel]

Berrios, Stewart, possibly Albers.

 

But your point stands. The Twins need starters and lots of 'em.

 

I was trying to talk about 2014/5....Stewart and Berrios won't be up next year, and probably not the year after. Think about how thin the staff is right now, it is just awful.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins would be fortunate to get Webster or Barnes as the only piece. Ranaudo has had more ups and downs. Right now the Twins would be buying high. Maybe he has figured it out his second time through AA. He might be the kind of return a reliever can get. If the Twins go his direction, they will need to see him and also seek video from when he was struggling.

 

IIRC, the Twins weren't that high on Ranaudo coming out of college. They passed on him, although he was a Boras client. Barnes has struggled a lot in AA this year and Webster might be a Brad Peacock type. All three have issues. I think Ranaudo's stock has gone up a lot this year, BA had him on their midseason list at 37. But Barnes and Webster's stock has dropped. I think Span's deal is comparable so a Perkins for Ranaudo would be ok but if it was one of the other two, I'd want at least another prospect back.

 

I'm also not sure how badly Boston needs bullpen help.

[gunnarthor]

I was trying to talk about 2014/5....Stewart and Berrios won't be up next year, and probably not the year after. Think about how thin the staff is right now, it is just awful.

 

Well, under control for next year it would be Gibson, Meyer, May, Worley, Hendricks, Deduno, Correia, Diamond ... and your 4A guys like Walters and Albers. A few buy low free agents. (Twins have been mentioned as liking Phil Hughes but we'll see). Not great.

 

Man, I hope they trade Perkins.

[Nick Nelson]

Some of the names being thrown around here are not in the realm of realism. If anyone's expecting to get Archie Bradley or Allen Webster for Perkins, you're going to be pretty disappointed if/when a trade actually occurs.

 

But the key point here is that teams aren't trading just for Perkins, but for his contract, which runs through 2016 at a very good price. I can't remember when the Twins have had such an appealing chip to dangle. This isn't a situation like Liriano where they're trying to unload a pitcher with mediocre numbers who's got two months left on his deal. With lockdown closers being coveted around the league and the prices of such players escalating in free agency, the Twins could create a bit of a bidding war for Perk. That will drive a nice return, and while it's not going to be a potential No. 1/2 starter who's close to the majors, I do think you can get multiple quality pieces.

[Mike Sixel]

Perkins and a mediocre starting prospect for a good prospect? Perkins and Carroll for a good prospect? Perkins and another reliever for a good prospect?

[Dave T]

Sorry Dave T, completely disagree. Good closers are NOT hard to find. Joe Nathan was a failed starter (mediocre player) and the Twins converted him to a closer. Eddie Guardado, failed starter. Glen Perkins, failed starter. We have plenty of these type of guys in the system that can be converted to closers. Jason Wheeler or Hudson Boyd are guys I could see eventually fitting that mold. Plus, we have Michael Tonkin and AJ Achter waiting for their opportunity as closers. Not even counting guys in the low minors such as Mason Melotakis, Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, Brandon Peterson etc. that all used to be closers in college. Closers hard to find? not at all in my opinion. What's hard to find is a top-end starting pitcher. And if we can get one by trading a closer like Perkins, you MUST do it.

Matt Capps sucked.

Jon Rausch was fine for a while, and then he lost his grip on the job I think. A lot of the closer position is mental.

 

You can argue that a losing team doesn't need an All-Star closer, but my answer is, go find me some more All-Stars. Don't trade the ones we've got.

 

I think Tonkin has the tools to be a good closer, but he might also be a good starter.

[drjim]

Perkins and a mediocre starting prospect for a good prospect? Perkins and Carroll for a good prospect? Perkins and another reliever for a good prospect?

 

No. Trades never work like that.

[gunnarthor]

Some of the names being thrown around here are not in the realm of realism. If anyone's expecting to get Archie Bradley or Allen Webster for Perkins, you're going to be pretty disappointed if/when a trade actually occurs.

 

I think you must have a much higher opinion of Webster than I do. He's probably a top 50-70 range prospect right now. If Perkins can't land something like that (not nec him since I don't know if Boston really needs to make a trade) than we shouldn't trade Perkins.

[ThePuck]

Matt Capps sucked.

Jon Rausch was fine for a while, and then he lost his grip on the job I think. A lot of the closer position is mental.

 

You can argue that a losing team doesn't need an All-Star closer, but my answer is, go find me some more All-Stars. Don't trade the ones we've got.

 

I think Tonkin has the tools to be a good closer, but he might also be a good starter.

 

If you ignore the FA market as one of many way to build a quality team, how do you get quality players to build a team if you are unwilling to trade a player at his highest trade value during rebuilding years. You say go find some more all stars. How? We going to get all stars with our dregs?

[Nick Nelson]

I think you must have a much higher opinion of Webster than I do. He's probably a top 50-70 range prospect right now.

Disagree. He was ranked No. 49 prior to this season by Baseball America and he's having maybe his best season as a pro (handful of clunkers in Boston notwithstanding).

[jorgenswest]

I think you must have a much higher opinion of Webster than I do. He's probably a top 50-70 range prospect right now. If Perkins can't land something like that (not nec him since I don't know if Boston really needs to make a trade) than we shouldn't trade Perkins.

 

It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect like Webster or Lee. Some have gone over the summer in the last few years but it has been for starting pitching like Sanchez or middle of the order hitters like Beltran.

 

Relievers have not seen that kind of return. I am not saying Ryan can't pull it off. It just shouldn't be expected.

[Dave T]

If you ignore the FA market as one of many way to build a quality team, how do you get quality players to build a team if you are unwilling to trade a player at his highest trade value during rebuilding years. You say go find some more all stars. How? We going to get all stars with our dregs?

 

The trade offers being discussed do not include all-stars or grade A prospects coming back, except as "I wish they would do this trade, but they won't." If another team offers a grade A prospect for Perkins, hell yes I'm trading him. What I'm reading is, we can't get that much for Perkins, but we should trade him anyway.

 

Well, no, we shouldn't.

[Oxtung]

It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect like Webster or Lee. Some have gone over the summer in the last few years but it has been for starting pitching like Sanchez or middle of the order hitters like Beltran.

 

Relievers have not seen that kind of return. I am not saying Ryan can't pull it off. It just shouldn't be expected.

 

I asked you this once before but never really got a response. Who is the best comp to Perkins that has been traded in the last few years? Perkins value is not just that he is a great closer but that he is also signed for the next 3 seasons as well at a cheap price. As far as I know there isn't a comp out there for Perkins. Soria could have been except he didn't get traded.

[gunnarthor]

It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect like Webster or Lee. Some have gone over the summer in the last few years but it has been for starting pitching like Sanchez or middle of the order hitters like Beltran.

 

Relievers have not seen that kind of return. I am not saying Ryan can't pull it off. It just shouldn't be expected.

 

True but ignoring position, those players were still rentals who maybe gave 1-2 WAR of value down the stretch. Perkins might be able to match that this year and he has a pretty nice affordable contract for the next few years. I don't think you compare his circumstances with a subset of relievers traded at the break over the last few years (although there have been some nice gets for rental relievers - including Zach Cox, Wilson Ramos, Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter. The Blue Jays traded two relievers for Edwin Jackson and Julio Tehran).

 

Perkins should be seen as more valuable than a 3 month rental. If the Twins aren't getting a Span like deal for him, than keep him.