Examining Twins Rotation Depth Following Pablo López's Injury

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

For a team that has spent the better part of the last calendar year trying to insulate itself from exactly this type of situation, the timing is less than ideal.

The Minnesota Twins have quietly built legitimate starting pitching depth over the last year, particularly following last season’s trade deadline acquisitions that reshaped the upper levels of the organization. That group was supposed to supplement a rotation headlined by Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, a trio viewed internally as the foundation of what could be a contending club in 2026. Now, the rotation may be asked to carry the load after López will likely miss the 2026 season with a tear in his UCL.

Twins Chairman Tom Pohlad has spoken openly this offseason about his belief that Minnesota can outperform outside expectations. Public projection systems have not been nearly as optimistic. FanGraphs currently forecasts the Twins for an 80-82 finish, while some betting markets have placed the club’s win total at just 73.5 victories.

“That’s ridiculous,” Pohlad said. “I’ve been consistent from the beginning, saying that we feel confident in this team and that we think what you see, the talent we have, is stronger than maybe you guys or the fans are giving the roster credit for. We’re very confident in what this group of people can do together.”

Those projected win totals were built with López firmly at the front of Minnesota’s rotation. His injury threatens to shift that math considerably.

“Everything’s getting rolling and the expectations and stuff, and then just having him go down like that, it’s tough,” Ryan said. “It doesn’t feel real in a sense, it’s just a shock. We’ve got to make that adjustment.”

Fortunately for Minnesota, making that adjustment was always part of the plan.

Rotation Options Already in Camp
Ryan now becomes the de facto leader of the staff. The All-Star right-hander continues to miss bats at an elite rate thanks to one of the most deceptive fastballs in baseball and has developed into a stabilizing presence capable of working deep into games. With López sidelined, his ability to anchor the rotation becomes even more critical.

Ober remains one of the most underrated starters in the American League if he can return to his 2022-24 form. His extension-based approach and elite command allow him to limit hard contact despite below-average velocity. Now, Minnesota must trust that he is healthy and can consistently provide quality innings regardless of the matchup.

Simeon Woods Richardson offers a different look with a deep pitch mix and an improving strike-throwing ability. He may not have the upside of some of the other arms in camp, but he’s been one of the most consistent young pitchers for the team over the last two seasons. The former top prospect took meaningful steps forward last season and appears poised to handle a full-time rotation role if needed.

Acquired last July, Taj Bradley has over 380 innings at the big-league level, and there’s a reason the Twins targeted him in a trade. He finished the 2025 campaign with a 5.05 ERA in a career-high 142 ⅔ innings, but his 4.37 xFIP suggested that he got a little unlucky. His development has centered around improving fastball command, but the raw stuff is capable of overpowering opposing lineups when he is in rhythm.

Zebby Matthews has impressed internally with his poise and ability to attack hitters in the zone. Matthews posted a 3.79 FIP and paired it with an 18.1 K-BB% that sat well above league average. He may not generate the same level of chase as others on this list, but his strike-throwing and efficiency give him a strong chance to contribute meaningful innings.

There has been talk of moving David Festa to the bullpen, but that plan may need to be put on hold with the Lopez news. The primary reason behind Festa’s struggles in the majors is that his four-seam fastball has surrendered a .609 slugging percentage last season. Improving his secondary offerings could allow his fastball to perform better.

Perhaps the most intriguing name in the mix is Mick Abel. Abel’s fastball shape and spin rate grade out better than average, especially once one adjusts for his low three-quarter arm slot. Abel can still refine his mechanics and improve his strike-throwing to put himself squarely in the conversation for early-season innings.

Depth Waiting in St. Paul
At Triple-A, additional reinforcements are expected to be available. Connor Prielipp remains one of the system’s highest upside arms when healthy and could factor into the major league picture at some point this season. Prielipp has told reporters he is building up as a starter this season, and that makes sense given teams' need for high-upside pitching depth.

Andrew Morris has steadily climbed the organizational ladder with a polished repertoire that plays up due to his command. Meanwhile, Kendry Rojas offers another developmental arm with the type of stuff that could force the issue if he continues to progress against upper-level competition. Minnesota spoke very highly of Rojas after acquiring him from Toronto.

The Twins entered camp believing their starting pitching depth was finally a strength rather than a question mark. López’s injury does not erase that progress, but it immediately places added pressure on the next wave of arms to prove they are ready for meaningful innings at the major league level.

If Minnesota is going to surprise the sport in 2026 as Pohlad expects, the path likely runs through this group. The rotation depth built at last summer’s deadline was designed for moments like this. Now the Twins will find out just how prepared they really are.

Can the Twins still outperform their projections even with López’s injury? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[sweetmusicviola16]

No longer likely, surgery planned for Wednesday.

[OregonTwinsFan]

Good article. It will be interesting to see which young arm(s) step up. I think Zebby will have a breakout year.

[CRF]

One good starter in Ryan, one possibly good starter in Ober...and then a whole lotta question marks. Prayers will be appreciated. 

[killercarewoliva]

33 minutes ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

Good article. It will be interesting to see which young arm(s) step up. I think Zebby will have a breakout year.

Maybe I say Abel is ready. 

[Original_JB]

Here's some food for thought:

Number of SPs who made 15+ starts for their team and finished with ERA's over 5.00 last year:

Rockies and Marlins: 4 each

White Sox, Angels, A's, and Nats: 3 each

Reds, Royals, Pirates, Cards, Rangers, Jays: 2 each

I didn't look into injuries, etc., as I figured if they threw them out there 15+ times with those ERAs, they didn't have other options to go with. So, we're starting out with one foot in the tub while holding a toaster with an iffy cord.

[LastOnePicked]

45 minutes ago, CRF said:

Prayers will be appreciated. 

As will rain.

[LastOnePicked]

Has anyone interviewed Pete Maki yet? Or is he rocking himself in the corner of the laundry room?

[DarrenPS]

I really think it's as simple as "if the arms step up (like I think they will), we have great depth to handle this. If they don't, well then the team is worse than most people already think they are".

I personally am bullish on the young arm talent. Taj, Zebby & Abel all will be MLB regulars soon enough!

[HerbieFan]

Time to find out what the young arms can do.  Only reason IMO to sign a guy like Giolito is if the plan was to move a Festa-type to the bullpen....then the plan can still play out.

[weitz41]

I'm not buying Tom's BS. He's trying to play 3 card Monte with the fans. Pablo being lost for this season and a big part of next season is a HUGE loose. Can the young guy's collectively equal Pablo's War (or whatever measure you prefer) sure. Why not? Will they? They play the games for a reason. Still not buying tickets...But will be in the area Labor Day weekend. Make me want to see a game then Twins.

[DocBauer]

IMO, they should proceed as if Lopez wasn't injured, in regard to the bullpen. If they've really been thinking that one of their arms is a better fit for the pen, they should go ahead and do so. EXAMPLE: IF they believe his build, stuff, 1 time through the rotation quality numbers, and a shoulder issue in 2025 marks Festa as a better fit for the pen, then do it. You can't change your entire staff nuilding approach due to 1 injury, even if it's big of a loss as Lopez is.

It could ne Bradley, or Matthews, but I'm sticking with the idea of Festa based on all the points that have been discussed ad nauseam.

So Ryan and Ober lead the staff. SWR should be written in ink at this point based on a pair of solid seasons, and a really strong finish to 2025 with greater faith and control in his splitter. Regardless how you set your rotation up...you might want to break up the #4 and #5 starters for example...you have 3 very interesting candidates for the last 2 spots.

MATTHEWS: Has he been overthrowing? His command/control hasn't been as good as it was in MILB. The stuff appears to be there. And he's had some really well pitched games. Now it's about consistency.

BRADLEY: Like Matthews, he's got the pure stuff. It's about consistency. Really crazy he just went out and threw and trusted the catcher previously. You simply HAVE to be part of the game strategy ahead of your next performance. The Twins seem to be at doing that. Now it's up to Bradley for the mental part of the game to catch up with the physical part. Interesting point, he's actually younger than both Matthews and SWR despite his greater ML experience. Again, the mental part of the game has to catch up to the physical. FWIW,  while it's only been about 10 days or work, reports are the Twins are excited for how Bradley looks so far.

ABEL: He's slightly younger than the other rotation contenders...and SWR...and might have the best pure STUFF of all the contenders. He had a really, really nice 2025 in AAA, and lowered his BB numbers. His final start against the Phillies to end the season showed his potential. Repeating the obvious yet again, he needs to find consistency. The stuff is there. FWIW part 2: like Bradley, the early reports are he looks really good in camp so far.

ONE of those 3 probably starts the season in St Paul, even if it's not deserved, as the 6th man in waiting. That's neither unfair, or a bad thing. The same thing happend to Ober a few years ago and Varland a couple seasons ago. Even if your starting 5 has an amazing run of generally good health, that #6 guy is ALWAYS needed, and ALWAYS used. Sometimes quite a lot.

But looking at depth behind player X 6th man, Morris has been really consistent in all aspects of his growth throughout the system. His early 2025...before a brief injury trip to the IL...was mediocre. It was then discovered he had been accidentally tipping off pitches. The 2nd half of his season was really good. He doesn't maybe have the upside of other arms, but he clearly seems to have quite the potential as a back end of the rotation talent. Currently, I have Morris as the #7 SP option.

That's pretty good depth to start the season. Next up?

PRIELIPP: I understand the principle idea of "number of bullets in the gun" and move him to the bullpen. Clearly, the Twins don't believe in that at this point. He started using a 2 seamer in 2025, and is now learning a curveball. While I can see tremendous potential in the pen for him, he's apparently healthy and ready to go as a STILL OMLY 25yo despite the time he's missed. While debating the bullpen issue with him, I've often stated that Prielipp as a full time starter at 27yo sounds, on the surface, as a waste of opportunity. But if/when he debuts in 2026...maybe as a RP late in the season to monitor his IP...and becomes part of the rotation in 2027 at 27yo, with multiple years of team control in to his early 30's, do we really care that we got 5-6 really good years instead of 5-6 really good years when he was younger?

I like adding the 2 new pitches. I like keeping him as a SP for now. After 82.2 IP in 2025, he should be targeted for around 120 IP in 2026, with the idea he might debut late in the season for the Twins in the pen. The old cliche is true: you move someone to the pen at any time, but you can't stretch them out for the rotation. Other than continuing to harness his 2 new pitches, he just needs to harness his command to "tease" batters with offerings that aren't in the "box", or start there and move outside. DAMN he's exciting. FRUSTRATING that he's still LEARNING how to PITCH.

ROJAS: This up to the Twins being RIGHT about trading Varland for him. (He was the principal in that trade). He probably shouldn't have been in AAA. But the Jay's had already promoted him to AAA before the trade. So the Twins just kept him there. Supposedly, the Twins believe he's just about ready to take another step. Probably why the Jay's promoted him to AAA in the first place. And it's been said the Twins believe he might be a top 100 prospect at the conclusion of 2026. I hope they're right as that is very exciting! But he's still #9 on the depth chart. 

The hope is the Twins don't need to dig too deeply in the first half of the season for Prielipp or Rojas. Either or both, might be natural promotions come July or later still, and be ready.

MORE DEPTH: Does CJ Culpepper start the season at AAA, or is there enough depth for him to begin at AA? Despite some injury setbacks, he continues to get batters out with a 6 pitch mix. If he can put the injuries behind him, he has potential as a back end starter. He's got solid numbers across the board. Not tremendous, but solid. He might have another level that he hasn't reached yet. Being healthy for an entire season is the key for him. 

But he could end up as a really good BP transition arm. But for now, he deserves a 2026 season to PROVE he's a rotation arm, or a bullpen arm.

For "shits and giggles" to use an old school expression from my father. Gallagher reached AA in his "rookie" season. Might he be an end of 2026 option? I sure hope not! That would mean 2026 tanked beyond belief! I only mention because he probably hits AAA the 2nd half of 2026. And at that point, he's probably the #11 guy in the rotation. 

I'm ONLY taking it THAT DEEP to show Twins depth with 2026 in mind, but also 2027. And beyond that is an entirely different discussion as A+ and A could be filled with a TON of rotation talent. 

But for 2026, just make the RIGHT decisions. Who are your next best 2 for the rotation? And DON'T stop in believing young arm X for the bullpen because that's where he belongs, even with the Lopez injury.

[Twinsrtheworst]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

IMO, they should proceed as if Lopez wasn't injured, in regard to the bullpen. If they've really been thinking that one of their arms is a better fit for the pen, they should go ahead and do so. EXAMPLE: IF they believe his build, stuff, 1 time through the rotation quality numbers, and a shoulder issue in 2025 marks Festa as a better fit for the pen, then do it. You can't change your entire staff nuilding approach due to 1 injury, even if it's big of a loss as Lopez is.

It could ne Bradley, or Matthews, but I'm sticking with the idea of Festa based on all the points that have been discussed ad nauseam.

So Ryan and Ober lead the staff. SWR should be written in ink at this point based on a pair of solid seasons, and a really strong finish to 2025 with greater faith and control in his splitter. Regardless how you set your rotation up...you might want to break up the #4 and #5 starters for example...you have 3 very interesting candidates for the last 2 spots.

MATTHEWS: Has he been overthrowing? His command/control hasn't been as good as it was in MILB. The stuff appears to be there. And he's had some really well pitched games. Now it's about consistency.

BRADLEY: Like Matthews, he's got the pure stuff. It's about consistency. Really crazy he just went out and threw and trusted the catcher previously. You simply HAVE to be part of the game strategy ahead of your next performance. The Twins seem to be at doing that. Now it's up to Bradley for the mental part of the game to catch up with the physical part. Interesting point, he's actually younger than both Matthews and SWR despite his greater ML experience. Again, the mental part of the game has to catch up to the physical. FWIW,  while it's only been about 10 days or work, reports are the Twins are excited for how Bradley looks so far.

ABEL: He's slightly younger than the other rotation contenders...and SWR...and might have the best pure STUFF of all the contenders. He had a really, really nice 2025 in AAA, and lowered his BB numbers. His final start against the Phillies to end the season showed his potential. Repeating the obvious yet again, he needs to find consistency. The stuff is there. FWIW part 2: like Bradley, the early reports are he looks really good in camp so far.

ONE of those 3 probably starts the season in St Paul, even if it's not deserved, as the 6th man in waiting. That's neither unfair, or a bad thing. The same thing happend to Ober a few years ago and Varland a couple seasons ago. Even if your starting 5 has an amazing run of generally good health, that #6 guy is ALWAYS needed, and ALWAYS used. Sometimes quite a lot.

But looking at depth behind player X 6th man, Morris has been really consistent in all aspects of his growth throughout the system. His early 2025...before a brief injury trip to the IL...was mediocre. It was then discovered he had been accidentally tipping off pitches. The 2nd half of his season was really good. He doesn't maybe have the upside of other arms, but he clearly seems to have quite the potential as a back end of the rotation talent. Currently, I have Morris as the #7 SP option.

That's pretty good depth to start the season. Next up?

PRIELIPP: I understand the principle idea of "number of bullets in the gun" and move him to the bullpen. Clearly, the Twins don't believe in that at this point. He started using a 2 seamer in 2025, and is now learning a curveball. While I can see tremendous potential in the pen for him, he's apparently healthy and ready to go as a STILL OMLY 25yo despite the time he's missed. While debating the bullpen issue with him, I've often stated that Prielipp as a full time starter at 27yo sounds, on the surface, as a waste of opportunity. But if/when he debuts in 2026...maybe as a RP late in the season to monitor his IP...and becomes part of the rotation in 2027 at 27yo, with multiple years of team control in to his early 30's, do we really care that we got 5-6 really good years instead of 5-6 really good years when he was younger?

I like adding the 2 new pitches. I like keeping him as a SP for now. After 82.2 IP in 2025, he should be targeted for around 120 IP in 2026, with the idea he might debut late in the season for the Twins in the pen. The old cliche is true: you move someone to the pen at any time, but you can't stretch them out for the rotation. Other than continuing to harness his 2 new pitches, he just needs to harness his command to "tease" batters with offerings that aren't in the "box", or start there and move outside. DAMN he's exciting. FRUSTRATING that he's still LEARNING how to PITCH.

ROJAS: This up to the Twins being RIGHT about trading Varland for him. (He was the principal in that trade). He probably shouldn't have been in AAA. But the Jay's had already promoted him to AAA before the trade. So the Twins just kept him there. Supposedly, the Twins believe he's just about ready to take another step. Probably why the Jay's promoted him to AAA in the first place. And it's been said the Twins believe he might be a top 100 prospect at the conclusion of 2026. I hope they're right as that is very exciting! But he's still #9 on the depth chart. 

The hope is the Twins don't need to dig too deeply in the first half of the season for Prielipp or Rojas. Either or both, might be natural promotions come July or later still, and be ready.

MORE DEPTH: Does CJ Culpepper start the season at AAA, or is there enough depth for him to begin at AA? Despite some injury setbacks, he continues to get batters out with a 6 pitch mix. If he can put the injuries behind him, he has potential as a back end starter. He's got solid numbers across the board. Not tremendous, but solid. He might have another level that he hasn't reached yet. Being healthy for an entire season is the key for him. 

But he could end up as a really good BP transition arm. But for now, he deserves a 2026 season to PROVE he's a rotation arm, or a bullpen arm.

For "shits and giggles" to use an old school expression from my father. Gallagher reached AA in his "rookie" season. Might he be an end of 2026 option? I sure hope not! That would mean 2026 tanked beyond belief! I only mention because he probably hits AAA the 2nd half of 2026. And at that point, he's probably the #11 guy in the rotation. 

I'm ONLY taking it THAT DEEP to show Twins depth with 2026 in mind, but also 2027. And beyond that is an entirely different discussion as A+ and A could be filled with a TON of rotation talent. 

But for 2026, just make the RIGHT decisions. Who are your next best 2 for the rotation? And DON'T stop in believing young arm X for the bullpen because that's where he belongs, even with the Lopez injury.

Great read! Thank you!