Examining the Minnesota Twins' Rotation Depth Following Pablo López's Injury

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

IMO, they should proceed as if Lopez wasn't injured, in regard to the bullpen. If they've really been thinking that one of their arms is a better fit for the pen, they should go ahead and do so. EXAMPLE: IF they believe his build, stuff, 1 time through the rotation quality numbers, and a shoulder issue in 2025 marks Festa as a better fit for the pen, then do it. You can't change your entire staff nuilding approach due to 1 injury, even if it's big of a loss as Lopez is.

It could ne Bradley, or Matthews, but I'm sticking with the idea of Festa based on all the points that have been discussed ad nauseam.

So Ryan and Ober lead the staff. SWR should be written in ink at this point based on a pair of solid seasons, and a really strong finish to 2025 with greater faith and control in his splitter. Regardless how you set your rotation up...you might want to break up the #4 and #5 starters for example...you have 3 very interesting candidates for the last 2 spots.

MATTHEWS: Has he been overthrowing? His command/control hasn't been as good as it was in MILB. The stuff appears to be there. And he's had some really well pitched games. Now it's about consistency.

BRADLEY: Like Matthews, he's got the pure stuff. It's about consistency. Really crazy he just went out and threw and trusted the catcher previously. You simply HAVE to be part of the game strategy ahead of your next performance. The Twins seem to be at doing that. Now it's up to Bradley for the mental part of the game to catch up with the physical part. Interesting point, he's actually younger than both Matthews and SWR despite his greater ML experience. Again, the mental part of the game has to catch up to the physical. FWIW,  while it's only been about 10 days or work, reports are the Twins are excited for how Bradley looks so far.

ABEL: He's slightly younger than the other rotation contenders...and SWR...and might have the best pure STUFF of all the contenders. He had a really, really nice 2025 in AAA, and lowered his BB numbers. His final start against the Phillies to end the season showed his potential. Repeating the obvious yet again, he needs to find consistency. The stuff is there. FWIW part 2: like Bradley, the early reports are he looks really good in camp so far.

ONE of those 3 probably starts the season in St Paul, even if it's not deserved, as the 6th man in waiting. That's neither unfair, or a bad thing. The same thing happend to Ober a few years ago and Varland a couple seasons ago. Even if your starting 5 has an amazing run of generally good health, that #6 guy is ALWAYS needed, and ALWAYS used. Sometimes quite a lot.

But looking at depth behind player X 6th man, Morris has been really consistent in all aspects of his growth throughout the system. His early 2025...before a brief injury trip to the IL...was mediocre. It was then discovered he had been accidentally tipping off pitches. The 2nd half of his season was really good. He doesn't maybe have the upside of other arms, but he clearly seems to have quite the potential as a back end of the rotation talent. Currently, I have Morris as the #7 SP option.

That's pretty good depth to start the season. Next up?

PRIELIPP: I understand the principle idea of "number of bullets in the gun" and move him to the bullpen. Clearly, the Twins don't believe in that at this point. He started using a 2 seamer in 2025, and is now learning a curveball. While I can see tremendous potential in the pen for him, he's apparently healthy and ready to go as a STILL OMLY 25yo despite the time he's missed. While debating the bullpen issue with him, I've often stated that Prielipp as a full time starter at 27yo sounds, on the surface, as a waste of opportunity. But if/when he debuts in 2026...maybe as a RP late in the season to monitor his IP...and becomes part of the rotation in 2027 at 27yo, with multiple years of team control in to his early 30's, do we really care that we got 5-6 really good years instead of 5-6 really good years when he was younger?

I like adding the 2 new pitches. I like keeping him as a SP for now. After 82.2 IP in 2025, he should be targeted for around 120 IP in 2026, with the idea he might debut late in the season for the Twins in the pen. The old cliche is true: you move someone to the pen at any time, but you can't stretch them out for the rotation. Other than continuing to harness his 2 new pitches, he just needs to harness his command to "tease" batters with offerings that aren't in the "box", or start there and move outside. DAMN he's exciting. FRUSTRATING that he's still LEARNING how to PITCH.

ROJAS: This up to the Twins being RIGHT about trading Varland for him. (He was the principal in that trade). He probably shouldn't have been in AAA. But the Jay's had already promoted him to AAA before the trade. So the Twins just kept him there. Supposedly, the Twins believe he's just about ready to take another step. Probably why the Jay's promoted him to AAA in the first place. And it's been said the Twins believe he might be a top 100 prospect at the conclusion of 2026. I hope they're right as that is very exciting! But he's still #9 on the depth chart. 

The hope is the Twins don't need to dig too deeply in the first half of the season for Prielipp or Rojas. Either or both, might be natural promotions come July or later still, and be ready.

MORE DEPTH: Does CJ Culpepper start the season at AAA, or is there enough depth for him to begin at AA? Despite some injury setbacks, he continues to get batters out with a 6 pitch mix. If he can put the injuries behind him, he has potential as a back end starter. He's got solid numbers across the board. Not tremendous, but solid. He might have another level that he hasn't reached yet. Being healthy for an entire season is the key for him. 

But he could end up as a really good BP transition arm. But for now, he deserves a 2026 season to PROVE he's a rotation arm, or a bullpen arm.

For "shits and giggles" to use an old school expression from my father. Gallagher reached AA in his "rookie" season. Might he be an end of 2026 option? I sure hope not! That would mean 2026 tanked beyond belief! I only mention because he probably hits AAA the 2nd half of 2026. And at that point, he's probably the #11 guy in the rotation. 

I'm ONLY taking it THAT DEEP to show Twins depth with 2026 in mind, but also 2027. And beyond that is an entirely different discussion as A+ and A could be filled with a TON of rotation talent. 

But for 2026, just make the RIGHT decisions. Who are your next best 2 for the rotation? And DON'T stop in believing young arm X for the bullpen because that's where he belongs, even with the Lopez injury.

Great read! Thank you!