Hicks vs Span vs Revere

[gunnarthor]

Thought this was interesting.

 

Span - .257/.311/.350 83 OPS+ 0.4 WAR

Revere - .304/.338/.353 90 OPS+ 1.1 WAR

Hicks - .199/.266/.363 71 OPS+ 1.3 WAR

 

Revere is out-slugging Span. That can't be going over well in Nats land. Twins certainly traded those two at the right time. Obviously, Hicks is getting a lot of defensive WAR love to get that mark but, in fairness, Span and Revere got a lot of their WAR values from defense when they were here too.

[ThePuck]

I'm still a big Span fan, but I liked the Span and Revere trades and I think in two or three years Hicks is easily better than either of them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For those more suspicious of defensive stats, Hicks and Span have equal oWAR (0.6), Revere is at 1.3.

 

Span is basically hitting like his pre-2008 minor league record suggested. It's really starting to look like 2008-2009 were outlier years for him -- but my, what fun those years were!

 

Revere's minor league record suggests he could hit .300 a bit in the bigs, which is good, because he basically needs to do that to warrant a starting job.

 

Hicks might end up a .250-type hitter, but he's got some OBP and SLG skills so he could easily be more valuable than the other two.

[TheLeviathan]

Those numbers show how easy it can be to paint a player's value how one would like. OPS+ is probably most reflective here, but I think in time Hicks' more versatile skillset will make him the better player.

[gunnarthor]

Those numbers show how easy it can be to paint a player's value how one would like. OPS+ is probably most reflective here, but I think in time Hicks' more versatile skillset will make him the better player.

 

I mostly agree but for center fielders, defense is a big part of their value. Whether WAR (or any other stat) accurately measures and calculates defense is a different question. Certainly OPS+ is pretty good judge of offensive value.

[Riverbrian]

Hicks is coming along nicely.

 

His defense was a little shaky to start and is firming up to rock solid. Almost top of the class.

His offense was "I don't belong here" bad to start and is now almost average.

 

Hicks has the most complete impressive tool set of the 3. I don't worry about his D and If he can figure it out at the plate... We will forget about Revere and Span real quick.

 

If he doesn't figure it out at the plate... Revere is the player of the 3 that I would choose to move forward into the future... in my opinion of course.

[TheLeviathan]

I mostly agree but for center fielders, defense is a big part of their value. Whether WAR (or any other stat) accurately measures and calculates defense is a different question. Certainly OPS+ is pretty good judge of offensive value.

 

I dont think all that highly of defensive metrics, so I'd rule out WAR personally. I agree about defensive value and I can't speak to Revere's play this year, but I would say Revere is the better CF overall at this stage. Though I think if Hicks can get his routes/instincts more refined he overtakes him at some point.

[JB_Iowa]

There was a little graphic on FSN during yesterday's game (I think it was yesterday's game) with Hicks' defense as a 1.000 and Span & Revere lower.

 

Was this based on errors (or lack thereof)? I just caught part of it and I know Dick/Bert wouldn't talk about defensive WAR so I have to think it was a more traditional stat.

[TheLeviathan]

There was a little graphic on FSN during yesterday's game (I think it was yesterday's game) with Hicks' defense as a 1.000 and Span & Revere lower.

 

Was this based on errors (or lack thereof)? I just caught part of it and I know Dick/Bert wouldn't talk about defensive WAR so I have to think it was a more traditional stat.

 

Yup, purely about errors.

[JB_Iowa]

Thanks. I was pretty sure that was all it was.

[ThePuck]

Yup, purely about errors.

 

Well, you know, that's how defense is judged. Like starting pitching is judged on wins/loss stat...and walk totals :-)

[nicksaviking]

How Close Ben Revere Has Come | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Jeff Sulivan at Fangraphs wrote a pretty damn funny piece about Revere's inability to hit a HR.

 

This quote from Revere got me:

 

“I went back to look at what I like to do. I looked at things in the minor leagues to see how my set-up was because I had more power then. Now it kind of faded off.”

[jokin]

There was a little graphic on FSN during yesterday's game (I think it was yesterday's game) with Hicks' defense as a 1.000 and Span & Revere lower.

 

Was this based on errors (or lack thereof)? I just caught part of it and I know Dick/Bert wouldn't talk about defensive WAR so I have to think it was a more traditional stat.

 

If Bert is involved in the conversation, it is definitely a more traditional stat.

[jokin]

Thanks. I was pretty sure that was all it was.

 

When DicknBert produce "research", it's usually agenda-driven. Someone either being subliminally championed or being thrown under the bus.

[JB_Iowa]

I have a tendency to zone out when Dick and Bert start yapping. Pretty sure I wouldn't have even caught this one except for the nice little graphic on the stat and the multiple videos of Hicks' recent catches.

[Badsmerf]

I think Span will finish the year strong. He's compiled enough data so far that half a season isn't going to finish him. Revere is what he is. To have more value he needs to steal bases and get more XBH. It isn't really a comparison right now with these three. I'd still rather take Span and Revere right now over Hicks, but Hicks has the tools to be better than both.

[jorgenswest]

I dont think all that highly of defensive metrics, so I'd rule out WAR personally. I agree about defensive value and I can't speak to Revere's play this year, but I would say Revere is the better CF overall at this stage. Though I think if Hicks can get his routes/instincts more refined he overtakes him at some point.

 

The defensive stat that stands up best to correlation is defensive runs saved from BIS solutions. It has been shown to be more stable than batting average and ERA and less stable but close to OPS.

 

In spite of significantly less time in CF, Hicks has done better in this measure than Span or Revere this year.

 

Though it will take a while for the measure to be trusted by the fan as ERA or OPS, I sure hope the Twins front office is paying attention. Would you prefer our management take your same view in their regard to defensive metrics?

[TheLeviathan]

Would you prefer our management take your same view in their regard to defensive metrics?

 

I welcome them to consult those metrics, but defense is one area I still think old-fashioned scouting is more reliable.

 

The stats we use to measure pitching and hitting aren't based on subjectivity. There is nothing subjective about OPS. Or OPS+. But DRS does have subjectivity. I just think, to date, defensive metrics and your advanced hitting/pitching stats are apples and oranges largely because of how subjectivity plays in. That has a dramatic impact on the value of data IMO.

 

They are getting better, I'll grant that.

[jokin]

I welcome them to consult those metrics, but defense is one area I still think old-fashioned scouting is more reliable.

 

The stats we use to measure pitching and hitting aren't based on subjectivity. There is nothing subjective about OPS. Or OPS+. But DRS does have subjectivity. I just think, to date, defensive metrics and your advanced hitting/pitching stats are apples and oranges largely because of how subjectivity plays in. That has a dramatic impact on the value of data IMO.

 

They are getting better, I'll grant that.

 

DRS has to be subjective. How does Revere go from 11 and 8 DRS in 2011 and 2012 to -2 DRS in 2013? Is he really having a turned-on-its-head defensive turnaround from the player he was the 2 years previously? Or is the current "judger" just giving him lower overall scores for his bad arm? His OOZ plays-made is going to easily surpass last year's number- when his defense was supposedly rated at a league elite level (~15 UZR).

 

On defensive rankings in general, how is Hicks rated negatively by Fangraphs and positively by Baseball Reference?

 

Does each rater take into account completely differently how deeply Hicks positions himself? Or how shallow Revere positions himself?

[TheLeviathan]

DRS has to be subjective.

 

I think that's the inherent problem. You won't find different OBP, SLG, or BA on different sites. These are more certain measurements so I tend to have more confidence in them. Defensive metrics just don't inspire nearly as much confidence. I'd still use them, just with a different level of trust.

[ThePuck]

DRS has to be subjective. How does Revere go from 11 and 8 DRS in 2011 and 2012 to -2 DRS in 2013? Is he really having a turned-on-its-head defensive turnaround from the player he was the 2 years previously? Or is the current "judger" just giving him lower overall scores for his bad arm? His OOZ plays-made is going to easily surpass last year's number- when his defense was supposedly rated at a league elite level (~15 UZR).

 

On defensive rankings in general, how is Hicks rated negatively by Fangraphs and positively by Baseball Reference?

 

Does each rater take into account completely differently how deeply Hicks positions himself? Or how shallow Revere positions himself?

 

Could it be because Revere is playing a different position from last year to this year?

 

Fangraphs said he was, at CF, -1 in in 2011, -3 in 2012, and -2 this year. That's pretty consistent. Last year in RF though, he was at +11 runs saved. Using overall OF numbers isnt gonna work, gotta look at the different positions.

 

On top of that, I hope they address the arm part of the equation, because they've never seemed to me to give it enough importance.,

[Oxtung]

On a related topic, when is the Field f/x system supposed to be up and running?

[jokin]

Could it be because Revere is playing a different position from last year to this year?

 

Fangraphs said he was, at CF, -1 in in 2011, -3 in 2012, and -2 this year. That's pretty consistent. Last year in RF though, he was at +11 runs saved. Using overall OF numbers isnt gonna work, gotta look at the different positions.

 

On top of that, I hope they address the arm part of the equation, because they've never seemed to me to give it enough importance.,

 

The "arm situation" should put Revere at a more severe disadvantage in RF vs. CF. Here's what the "defenders" of the metric say about their stat:

 

"DRS uses Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data in calculating its results. It’s important to note that this data is compiled by human scorers, which means that it likely includes some human error. Until FIELDF/x data gets released to the public, we are never going to have wholly accurate defensive data; human error is impossible to avoid when recording fielding locations by hand, no matter how meticulous the scorers."

 

"● DRS is comparable to UZR in terms of methodology (e.g. the use of “zones” for evaluating defensive success rates) and results. "

 

And yet, Revere's 2011 UZR is wildly different in CF than his DRS. And how did his RngR plummet in CF between 2011 and 2012-13? Was he really a "near Gold Glover" rating, via UZR, in CF in 2011... only to morph into a "below average" CF in 2012-13. His strengths and deficiencies in the OF pretty much have stayed the same, IMO.

[ThePuck]

The "arm situation" should put Revere at a more severe disadvantage in RF vs. CF. Here's what the "defenders" of the metric say about their stat:

 

 

Yes, it should. That's what I said. But the range he had in RF blew other RFs out of the water, cause he has CF range when most RFs, well, don't. Got to remember who he was being compared to for his UZR, so we have to take that into count and the difference was sizable and certainly more important overall, than arm.

 

His weak arm didn't knock down his UZR enough though, it's why I said I hope they look at putting a bit more importance on arm.

[notoriousgod71]

Regarding Hicks' ROY candidacy if his numbers end up decent he is putting together a nice highlight reel of catches and now his throw that will stick in the mind of voters and could possibly put him over the top if it's a close race.

[Kwak]

Regarding Hicks' ROY candidacy if his numbers end up decent he is putting together a nice highlight reel of catches and now his throw that will stick in the mind of voters and could possibly put him over the top if it's a close race.

 

Hicks is also debunking the claims that he is "defensively deficient" compared to his predecessors, much less in general. Good for "Hicksie".

[Oxtung]

Regarding Hicks' ROY candidacy if his numbers end up decent he is putting together a nice highlight reel of catches and now his throw that will stick in the mind of voters and could possibly put him over the top if it's a close race.

 

Hicks would have to OPS ~1.200 over the second half of the season to raise his OPS to .900 for the season. That would put him in the conversation in recent years. Safe to say he won't be remotely considered.

[jokin]

On an unfortunate note, Ben Revere broke his foot fouling a ball off of it last night. Too bad, as he had turned most Phillies fans from boo-ers to believers with his hot hitting since May 1, when he finally had adjusted to his new situation.

 

As of Friday, he had a BA of .338 for May, June and July with a .381 OBP.

 

For the months of June and July look at this elite player's list for Total Hits. I know that not all hits are created equal, but Revere was still running in some pretty fast company before this injury debacle:

 

1) Puig 58

2) Revere 54

3)Trout 52

4) Beltre 52

5) Cabrera 51

5) Wright 51

7) Ellsbury 50

8) Hanley Ramirez 44

 

 

Also, from yesterday’s Stat Notes, where Revere ranked among all MLB over the last 30 days:

 

 

AVG: 1) H Ramirez .412, 2) REVERE .411

OBP: 1) Kipnis .483, …7) REVERE .431

wRC+: 1) H Ramirez 237, …20) REVERE 158

fWAR: 1) Wright 2.3, …16) REVERE 1.2

[Riverbrian]

Revere broke his foot.

He knew the bench had been used. He waived the trainers off.

Finished the at bat.

Grounded into a game ending double play.

He ran hard down the line on this broken foot.

 

Revere is tough!!! He can play for my team... Any day!!!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Revere broke his foot.

He knew the bench had been used. He waived the trainers off.

Finished the at bat.

Grounded into a game ending double play.

He ran hard down the line on this broken foot.

 

Revere is tough!!! He can play for my team... Any day!!!

 

I'm sorry, I'd bench a guy for breaking his foot so he can finish an at bat and ground into a double play.

 

You call it tough... I have a few other adjectives that I call it. It certainly wasn't fair to the rest of his team.