DJL44’s 2026 Payroll Blueprint: Competing on the cheap with young talent

[DJL44]

Trade OF Trevor Larnach to the Pirates for C Joey Bart.

Trade SP Bailey Ober to Arizona for SS Jordan Lawlar

Promote Walker Jenkins and put him in RF.

Sign Miguel Andujar. 2 years $12M. If not him, then Ryan Mountcastle.

Sign two adequate RHRP for $3M each. Move Festa and Prielipp to the bullpen.

Mick Abel is the 6th SP and Emmanuel Rodriguez is the 6th OF.

Use some of the extra payroll money to extend Jeffers for an additional 2 years $27M and a $14M option / $1M buyout for 2028.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($7.2M)
• 1B: Miguel Andujar ($6M)
• 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M)
• SS: Jordan Lawlar ($0.8M)
• LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Walker Jenkins ($0.80M)
• DH: Matt Wallner ($0.8M)
• 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M)
• Utility: Brooks Lee ($0.8M)
• Utility: Kody Clemens ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Joey Bart ($2.7M)
• POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M)
• SP3: Taj Bradley ($0.8M)
• SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M)
• SP5: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.75M)
• RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M)
• RP: Free Agent ($3M)
• RP: Free Agent ($3M)
• RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M)
• RP: David Festa ($0.80M)
• RP: Rule 5 Pick ($0.80M)
• POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 25.00% under budget

[tony&rodney]

Thank you for posting your proposal. It is interesting to see these rosters. 

I'm too afraid of what the actual front office will do after living through the past several years.

The challenge in putting these rosters out is the unknown financial limits. I would like to see the Twins compete but the July trades were curious, at the very least. Cutting back to $125M should have been an option but here we are looking at a $110M budget and most people are cutting back even further as you have done.

Like the move of Matt Wallner to DH. He could blossom in that role (Kyle Schwarber like -?), but I live in fear of seeing him in the outfield as do the pitchers. Your low budget would have room for Pete Fairbanks. 

[Mike Sixel]

Lawlars defense makes Lee look like the best SS ever ... They are moving him to the OF. However, I'd do that trade and put him at first or OF or flip him to another team. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lawlars defense makes Lee look like the best SS ever ... They are moving him to the OF. However, I'd do that trade and put him at first or OF or flip him to another team. 

Arizona has a guy - Geraldo Perdomo - who is a star shortstop signed long term and Ketel Marte at second base is also signed long term. Thus the idea to try Lawler in CF. Lawler is a terrific shortstop. He was very uncomfortable at third base, which is not terribly unusual. Arizona also has a pile of potentially solid/good third basemen. I don't know how many times you have watched Lawler play shortstop but he looked really good to me (via milb.com) ... and yes, he looked awful at third base. FWIW, I have yet to see/read anyone who evaluates infielders as part of their job voice any concerns about Lawler as a shortstop. Of course, Lawler has only played shortstop in AAA and has not proven himself at any position in MLB. Lawler is a boom or bust candidate but I think his upside and athleticism is exactly the direction our front office needs to take now.

[DJL44]

Is Ober for Lawlar an even trade or would MN need to add a prospect?

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, just just week fangraphs wrote that lawlars defense was terrible....

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan: What do you make of Jordan Lawlar playing centerfield in winter ball? Was his infield defense really looking THAT bad?

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great experiment, though I haven’t pulled the tape on him out there yet, and probably won’t until he’s had some more reps. Yes, it was that bad.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, just just week fangraphs wrote that lawlars defense was terrible....

Yes, in his trial at third base. 

[stringer bell]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, just just week fangraphs wrote that lawlars defense was terrible....

Many sources said that France’s defense was awful and he won a Gold Glove. Defensive evaluation still seems more art than science IMHO.

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 

[DJL44]

One of the things I like best about this roster is you can run it all back again in 2027 if it works out. Plus, there's a ton of cash available to add at the trade deadline.

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Is Ober for Lawlar an even trade or would MN need to add a prospect?

I would add Kyle DeBarge, a player who could be a fine utility player or even make it as a second baseman. Jordan Lawler has tantalized Arizona for a few years and not found his footing. He is a real gamble for them or any team that might acquire him. Thing is that Lawler has a high ceiling so any trade would need to push Arizona to give him up. I would consider a Festa or Matthews for Lawler if I knew the Twins could spend $125M on their roster.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Many sources said that France’s defense was awful and he won a Gold Glove. Defensive evaluation still seems more art than science IMHO.

Absolutely! But I don't watch these guys, so I have to trust someone else. I mean, or we can just assume everyone is good or bad? Like, I don't know what to say to this post. 

To be clear, I like a lot of the ideas here, I was just pointing out that at least one talent advisor said his D is bad. 

[stringer bell]

Just now, stringer bell said:

Many sources said that France’s defense was awful and he won a Gold Glove. Defensive evaluation still seems more art than science IMHO.

I think some measures like sprint speed and arm velo give an indication of tools, but not the whole picture. Some guys go from bad to good while in the majors, although their basic tools don’t improve. 
 

Two of the Padres outfielders moved there because the infield was full, not because of defensive inadequacies—it does happen. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I would add Kyle DeBarge, a player who could be a fine utility player or even make it as a second baseman. Jordan Lawler has tantalized Arizona for a few years and not found his footing. He is a real gamble for them or any team that might acquire him. Thing is that Lawler has a high ceiling so any trade would need to push Arizona to give him up. I would consider a Festa or Matthews for Lawler if I knew the Twins could spend $125M on their roster.

Arizona is losing Gallen and has a clear need for starting pitching. MN needs a SS. They seem to fit well as trade partners.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

To be clear, I like a lot of the ideas here, I was just pointing out that at least one talent advisor said his D is bad. 

Eric was responding to Lawler's play at third base. Eric also has him as a 55/60 defender at shortstop. There are always going to be questions, to be sure. I have seen him a bunch and would take the gamble. Truth is - Lawler is a gamble. Emmanuel Rodriguez is not at all a similar player but there are questions about him as well and plopping these guys in a lineup is a gamble, but one that can payoff in a big way. The Twins have been rolling with mediocre talent for too long.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

Eric was responding to Lawler's play at third base. Eric also has him as a 55/60 defender at shortstop. There are always going to be questions, to be sure. I have seen him a bunch and would take the gamble. Truth is - Lawler is a gamble. Emmanuel Rodriguez is not at all a similar player but there are questions about him as well and plopping these guys in a lineup is a gamble, but one that can payoff in a big way. The Twins have been rolling with mediocre talent for too long.

I said I'd also take the gamble....especially for Ober. But I wasn't clear that I'd also try him at SS if they want, so my bad. I mean, I do Ober for Lawler all day and figure out what to do with him once he's here. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Arizona is losing Gallen and has a clear need for starting pitching. MN needs a SS. They seem to fit well as trade partners.

In my first Middle Path proposal I traded for Lawler and traded away EmRod, mitigating gambles in a way. Because we have zero clue of a budget, it makes quite a bit of sense to have a plan below $85M and another around $125M. 

Of course this is all just nonsense but I cut and split the wood and am setting the book and other chores aside for a bit making these conversations and articles worthwhile as an avid baseball fan. I like seeing what people put out there as an exercise. I wish more would do so. I wish the leaders of the site would weigh in with plans too. As they say, it's all good.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Is Ober for Lawlar an even trade or would MN need to add a prospect?

I think the more unrealistic trade is Larnach for Bart. Not sure why the Pirates would do that. Is Bart a non-tender candidate? Larnach surely is. I don't think that trade has any shot.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I think the more unrealistic trade is Larnach for Bart. Not sure why the Pirates would do that. Is Bart a non-tender candidate? Larnach surely is. I don't think that trade has any shot.

Agreed. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the more unrealistic trade is Larnach for Bart. Not sure why the Pirates would do that. Is Bart a non-tender candidate? Larnach surely is. I don't think that trade has any shot.

Pittsburgh needs offense - they don't have a LF or a DH on their current roster. They have money to spend but aren't going to attract free agents so a trade for a bat helps them quite a bit. I agree that the Twins would need to throw something else into the trade. Add Ricardo Olivar or Danny DeAndrade?

Bart is a 0.5 WAR backup catcher with a $2.7M salary. Here's a quote from a random (AI generated?) internet article

Quote

Joey Bart is projected to earn approximately $2.7 million in arbitration, which is hard to justify when the Pirates have three other younger, cost-controlled catchers on their 40-man roster. 

 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Pittsburgh needs offense - they don't have a LF or a DH on their current roster. They have money to spend but aren't going to attract free agents so a trade for a bat helps them quite a bit. I agree that the Twins would need to throw something else into the trade. Add Ricardo Olivar or Danny DeAndrade?

Bart is a 0.5 WAR backup catcher with a $2.7M salary. Here's a quote from a random (AI generated?) internet article

 

Why wouldn't they just use Bart at DH and save 2+ million? Their bats are essentially the same. Larnach had a 99 OPS+ this year after maxing out at 116 the year before. Bart was 96 this year and 121 the year before. I don't think Larnach has any trade value at all. I don't think any team is going to trade for him. Certainly not to give up a cheaper bat of the same quality who also catches. I think the dream of trading Larnach for a useful piece is one with almost no chance of happening. Gleeman reported they tried to trade him at the deadline and got no bites. He's now more expensive. The fact that he hit as high in the Twins lineup as he did is a prime example of how much they need lineup help.

I'm not sure which catchers that quote is referring to for sure, but if one is Henry Davis I don't think it makes much sense. Davis is younger, but he's a worse hitter than Vazquez. I'd assume another is Endy Rodriguez who is also younger but has an MLB wRC+ of 59. The 3rd one is likely Rafael Flores who is a better argument for things. Endy plays C/1B/2B/LF so they don't need to move their 2nd best hitter in order to get him time. If 2.7 mil for their 2nd best hitter (with 200 PAs according to wRC+) is too much, they certainly aren't trading for Larnach at 5 mil when his wRC+ was 102 compared to Bart's 101. 

[TopGunn#22]

I really like the Ober for Lawler trade.  The D-Backs absolutely need SP and Ober would be a bargain for them.  The Twins could absolutely use an upgrade at SS over Lee.  This would not necessarily be giving up on Lee.  He could still play 2B and/or 3B or be a 5th IF who plays 2B/3B/SS somewhat regularly.  I especially like the "upside" on Lawler.  To me it's worth the gamble, even with Culpepper and Marek Houston in the system and the possibility of getting Roch Cholowsky with the #1 pick. 

My only suggestion:  With the money you are under budget, upgrade one of those $3 million dollar RP's to Ryan Helsley for $12 million.  This way, you have a true "Closer" to anchor your BP.   

When I posted my roster, none of my acquisitions that I typed in stuck, despite "saving" them every time I made a change.  Not sure why that happened.  I still have guys like Eddie Julien listed...AAAHHHRRGGGHHH !!

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why wouldn't they just use Bart at DH and save 2+ million? Their bats are essentially the same. Larnach had a 99 OPS+ this year after maxing out at 116 the year before. Bart was 96 this year and 121 the year before.

What do you think it would cost to get Joey Bart? The Twins can non-tender Larnach, trade a prospect or two and end up with the same roster I posted above. How much is a 0.5 WAR catcher with 2 years of arbitration control worth? Can they get him for Kyler Fedko?

The advantage for the Pirates of picking up potential non-tender candidates is they can't say "no thanks" to the money. Free agents can tell them to go to hell.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

My only suggestion:  With the money you are under budget, upgrade one of those $3 million dollar RP's to Ryan Helsley for $12 million.  This way, you have a true "Closer" to anchor your BP.   

I get what you're saying but I dislike paying retail prices for relief pitchers. I would only look for 1-year contracts in the bullpen.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What do you think it would cost to get Joey Bart? The Twins can non-tender Larnach, trade a prospect or two and end up with the same roster I posted above. How much is a 0.5 WAR catcher with 2 years of arbitration control worth? Can they get him for Kyler Fedko?

The advantage for the Pirates of picking up potential non-tender candidates is they can't say "no thanks" to the money. Free agents can tell them to go to hell.

Oh, I don't think it'd be expensive to get Bart. Fedko sounds about right. Older "prospect" who's likely a AAAA player max.

Sure, the Larnach's of the world can't turn down their contract, but why would you give up anything for him and then pay more than he's worth? He's not making you a contender. Good free agents with multiple options tell the Pirates to stop calling, but they sign guys in the Larnach realm of players every year. Tommy Pham, IKF, Adam Frazier, etc. If Larnach is non-tendered and they offer him 3 or 4 mil he very well may end up there without them giving up anything and they save a couple mil. If not him, they can find a 1-year vet with a league average bat and no defensive value pretty easily. You only bring in Larnach if you think you can get more out of him so you'll risk the arb money.