How High Could Byron Buxton Finish in the AL MVP Race?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Every fall, baseball’s MVP conversation stirs debates across the league, and this year’s American League race is no different. The top of the ballot seems destined to be a battle between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, two stars who carried their teams in very different ways. Judge was once again a machine, leading the league in both versions of WAR and serving as the offensive engine behind another dominant Yankees campaign. But Raleigh’s case might be just as compelling. He produced one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by both a catcher and a switch-hitter, all while helping guide the Mariners’ pitching staff to an AL West title.

It’s rare to see a backstop enter the MVP discussion this seriously, but Raleigh’s combination of power, leadership, and workload makes him the biggest challenger to Judge’s throne. Still, when looking beyond those two, there’s no shortage of elite talent in the mix.

A Deep Field of MVP Contenders
Many MVP races have a handful of stars who could win in almost any other season, and this year is that kind of abundant harvest. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to look like a future MVP. His blend of speed, power, and defense makes him a perennial top-five candidate. José Ramírez remains one of baseball’s most underappreciated superstars, quietly leading the Guardians back to the top of the AL Central.

On the pitching side, Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet deserve recognition for being the best starters in the American League this year. Both were dominant, reliable, and essential to their teams’ competitiveness. And in Seattle, Julio Rodríguez did Julio things, posting another dynamic season while sharing the spotlight (and the lineup) with Raleigh.

That brings us to Byron Buxton, whose 2025 campaign was one of the brightest individual seasons in a dark year for the Minnesota Twins.

Buxton’s Case: MVP Numbers, Mediocre Team
Despite Minnesota’s struggles, Buxton quietly put together a season worthy of serious down-ballot MVP consideration. He put himself on the national stage by competing in the Home Run Derby in front of his hometown fans in Atlanta. He played in 140 games, a notable achievement considering his injury history, and reminded everyone just how dynamic he can be when healthy. 

Buxton finished 8th in the AL in Offensive WAR, 5th in slugging percentage, 5th in OPS, 7th in runs scored, 8th in home runs, and 5th in Adjusted OPS+. His Offensive Win Percentage ranked 4th, and he was the most efficient base stealer in the league, going a perfect 24-for-24. Add in a top-10 finish in Win Probability Added (9th), and the numbers paint a picture of one of baseball’s most impactful all-around hitters.

His combination of power and speed (35 home runs and 24 stolen bases) put him in rare company for a Twins player. The last Twin to combine that kind of pop and athleticism for a full season was Kirby Puckett, who mixed power, defense, and flair in ways Buxton continues to echo.

Unfortunately for Buxton, MVP voters often punish players on non-contending teams. The Twins’ 92-loss season makes it unlikely he’ll climb higher than the back end of the top 10, even if the numbers suggest he should. He has an incentive in his contract that will pay him $3 million if he finishes in the top 10, so he (and the Twins) will watch the voting carefully. 

A Realistic Spot on the Ballot
Buxton’s 2025 production should be good enough to earn him a top-10 finish, but he’ll probably show up in the 7–10 range on most ballots and be left off entirely by a few voters focusing on playoff teams. Still, that kind of recognition would trigger one of the performance incentives in his contract, a small but deserved reward for a player who finally stayed healthy and played like the superstar Twins fans have long envisioned.

My Hypothetical AL MVP Ballot:

1. Aaron Judge
2. Cal Raleigh
3. José Ramírez
4. Bobby Witt Jr.
5. Tarik Skubal
6. George Springer
7. Garrett Crochet
8. Byron Buxton
9. Julio Rodríguez
10. Corey Seager

If nothing else, Buxton’s place on this list serves as a reminder that even in a disappointing team season, individual greatness still shines through. For Twins fans, it’s a glimpse of what could be possible if a healthy Buxton leads a winning roster again in 2026.

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How would your ballot look for the AL MVP? Does Judge or Raleigh get the top spot? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Launch Angle]

He wont be in the top 10, The Pohlads are secretly paying BBWAA writers to leave Buxton off their ballots to avoid having to pay out the $3 mil. 

[Doctor Gast]

Buck is # 5 on my AL MVP list. I'm not big on pitchers on the MVP list. I put him ahead of Springer because, although their offensive #s are close, Buck beats him hands down in defense. On the actual voters' list, Springer comes out on top, maybe Buck makes #9 & I wouldn't be surprized, because others hype, Buck doesn't make the top 10 list.

My #1 pick is Cal Raleigh, hands down, because of his demanding position, T-Mobile is a much more difficult stadium to hit in than easy NYY stadium & I'm not sure that Judge doesn't still have a steady diet of "Goldilocks" baseballs.

[tony&rodney]

9th place is a fair placement.

Byron's defense takes quite a hit with both BaseballReference and BaseballSavant.

It was good to see him play in the field this year. I wonder if he would be open to a move to a corner outfield position soon?

[Whitey333]

He deserves to be in top 10 to earn that bonus.  I mean it took him 10 years to do it and regularly play.  I don't think he will make it but I hope so.

[Doctor Wu]

Who cares, As good as Buxton played this season, any MVP votes are not even worth worrying about at this point. It was wonderful that he stayed healthy all year, but it certainly had no impact on how the Twins finished. 

[DJL44]

My ballot

1) Aaron Judge - best hitter by 2 wins

2) Cal Raleigh

3) Bobby Witt Jr

4) Julio Rodriguez

5) Tarik Skubal

6) Garrett Crochet

7) Corey Seager

8) Hunter Brown

9) Jeremy Pena

10) Jose Ramirez

11-15) Maikel Garcia, Trevor Rogers, Gunnar Henderson, Wyatt Langford, Nick Kurtz

16-20) Byron Buxton, Cody Bellinger, George Springer, Drew Rasmussen, Carlos Rodon

 

Teams with more than one Byron Buxton-caliber player:

Phillies (5): Turner, Sanchez, Wheeler, Suarez, Schwarber

Yankees (4): Judge, Bellinger, Rodon, Fried

Dodgers (4): Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, Smith

Red Sox (3): Crochet, Rafaela, Duran

Reds (3): Lodolo, Abbott, Greene

Orioles (2): Henderson, Rogers

Cubs (2): Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong

Rangers (2): Seager, Langford

Mets (2): Lindor, Soto

Mariners (2): Raleigh, Rodriguez

Brewers (2): Turang, Peralta

Astros (2): Brown, Pena

Diamondbacks (2): Perdomo, Carroll

Padres (2): Tatis Jr, Pivetta

Royals (2): Witt Jr, Garcia

Blue Jays (2): Springer, Guerrero Jr.

That's half the league. Lucky for the Twins, Detroit and Cleveland aren't on the list.

[mac098]

On 10/9/2025 at 10:16 AM, tony&rodney said:

9th place is a fair placement.

Byron's defense takes quite a hit with both BaseballReference and BaseballSavant.

It was good to see him play in the field this year. I wonder if he would be open to a move to a corner outfield position soon?

I'd imagine its only a matter of time with both Walker Jenkins and Emannuel Rodriguez coming up. I think left field with his speed would actually be a positive. 

 

 

Starting LF and spelling CF when Jenkins or E-Rod need a break. Sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me. Especially as we have to make decisions with Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey, McCusker, and Outman. 

[Schmoeman5]

You made a list that excluded Guerrero nearly 600 AB but includes Seager with less than 400 AB due to injury. If you want to put Buxton in the top 10 thats fine. But the list should be based on stats not name recognition.  

[Schmoeman5]

On 10/10/2025 at 7:52 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Who cares, As good as Buxton played this season, any MVP votes are not even worth worrying about at this point. It was wonderful that he stayed healthy all year, but it certainly had no impact on how the Twins finished. 

Buxtons agent would give you 3 million reasons why it's worth worrying about.

[Schmoeman5]

On 10/10/2025 at 3:02 PM, DJL44 said:

My ballot

1) Aaron Judge - best hitter by 2 wins

2) Cal Raleigh

3) Bobby Witt Jr

4) Julio Rodriguez

5) Tarik Skubal

6) Garrett Crochet

7) Corey Seager

8) Hunter Brown

9) Jeremy Pena

10) Jose Ramirez

11-15) Maikel Garcia, Trevor Rogers, Gunnar Henderson, Wyatt Langford, Nick Kurtz

16-20) Byron Buxton, Cody Bellinger, George Springer, Drew Rasmussen, Carlos Rodon

 

Teams with more than one Byron Buxton-caliber player:

Phillies (5): Turner, Sanchez, Wheeler, Suarez, Schwarber

Yankees (4): Judge, Bellinger, Rodon, Fried

Dodgers (4): Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, Smith

Red Sox (3): Crochet, Rafaela, Duran

Reds (3): Lodolo, Abbott, Greene

Orioles (2): Henderson, Rogers

Cubs (2): Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong

Rangers (2): Seager, Langford

Mets (2): Lindor, Soto

Mariners (2): Raleigh, Rodriguez

Brewers (2): Turang, Peralta

Astros (2): Brown, Pena

Diamondbacks (2): Perdomo, Carroll

Padres (2): Tatis Jr, Pivetta

Royals (2): Witt Jr, Garcia

Blue Jays (2): Springer, Guerrero Jr.

That's half the league. Lucky for the Twins, Detroit and Cleveland aren't on the list.

You left a lot of good players off your list of teams with mvp caliber players. Phillies, no Harper. Dodgers, no Freeman. Cubs, no Tucker. Padres, no Machado. Mets. How about Alonso? But I get your point