Week in Review: Rain and Resilience

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
With rain falling nonstop from Monday through Wednesday in Minneapolis, it was a challenge to try and play baseball. The Twins and Guardians were lucky to complete two of their scheduled games, splitting them and postponing the third until September. The weather improved greatly for a weekend series against the Royals, which saw Minnesota continue to play crisp ball and hang tough in tense situations. The Twins walked off Kansas City on Friday and Saturday, and they had the winning run at second in the ninth on Sunday before falling just short of a sweep. It was an entertaining, competitive series played before refreshingly large crowds at Target Field.

Now, having improved their position in the standings, the Twins embark on a lengthy coast-to-coast road trip while getting ready to welcome back two crucial difference-makers in the lineup. Read on and we'll unpack it all.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/19 through Sun, 5/25
***
Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 29-23)
Run Differential Last Week: -1 (Overall: +34)
Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central (4.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 48 | MIN 6, CLE 5: Twins Turn Tables on Guardians with Walk-Off Win

• Clemens: Walk-off double in 9th 

Game 49 | CLE 5, MIN 1: Offense Goes Silent, Ending 10-Game Home Win Streak

• Offense: 3 H, 1 XBH

Game 50 | MIN 3, KC 1: Correa Homers in Return, France Walks It Off in Ninth

• France: Walk-off 2-R HR in 9th inning

Game 51 | MIN 5, KC 4: Twins Rally Back from Deficit, Notch Another Walk-Off Win

• Lee: Walk-off RBI single in 9th inning

Game 52 | KC 2, MIN 1 (10): Bubic and Royals Silence Minnesota Lineup to Avoid Sweep

• Offense: 3 H, 1 XBH

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NEWS & NOTES

Carlos Correa spent the minimum seven days on the concussion injured list before being activated ahead of Friday's game, and homering in his first at-bat. A good sign, to be sure, but Correa was out of the lineup on Saturday, with the Twins clearly exercising caution. "We'll play him and then assess him to make sure everything is still going smoothly," said Rocco Baldelli. Seems like so far, it is: Correa did end up pinch-hitting Saturday night and started again on Sunday, with no apparent hiccups. Ryan Fitzgerald was optioned the minors in a corresponding move.

Byron Buxton's recovery from his own concussion, suffered in the same collision, has been a bit more gradual. As of Sunday he had not yet been cleared by MLB to return, but it does sound like he's making progress and getting close – he's traveling with the Twins for their upcoming 10-game road trip, which gets underway in Tampa on Monday.

 

Down at Triple-A, Matt Wallner initiated a rehab assignment on Thursday, homering twice in his first game back. It doesn't sound like he'll be back for the Tampa series but Wallner is in line to return to the Twins soon, following what would amount to about a six-week absence from the hamstring strain. That's on the quicker end of expectations, given the severity. So in addition to rarely getting hurt, Wallner also heals fast apparently. And we know he can absolutely mash – those poor minor-league pitchers. He'll be a welcome addition to the lineup whenever that happens. More on that shortly.

HIGHLIGHTS

The victory in the opening game of the Cleveland series felt like such a huge breakthrough moment for the Minnesota Twins. It was a weird game – halted midway through and spread across three days due to rainfall – and it was also the type of game Minnesota has been completely unable to win against the Guardians in recent years. The Twins had dropped nine consecutive one-run contests against Cleveland, dating back to June of 2023, before they managed to squeak this one out.

 

There were definitely palpable "here we go again" vibes as the Guards mounted a ninth-inning rally against Joe Ryan and Jhoan Durán to erase a three-run deficit and tie the game. But the Twins quickly responded with a two-out rally in the bottom half, culminating in a walk-off double from Kody Clemens, who's been the unlikely hero of this torrid stretch for the club. 

Clemens, who tripled earlier in that game, added another double on Saturday and then walked as a pinch-hitter representing the winning run on Sunday. He sits with an incredible .283/.377/.642 slash line as of week's end. Two weeks ago his OPS was below .500. What a run for the miraculous scrap-heap pickup. 

 

Ty France and Brooks Lee also joined the Gatorade-bathing festivities, delivering game-winning knocks on back-to-back days to open the Royals series. France launched a two-run homer into the bullpen to secure a victory on Friday night, and then Lee tapped a seeing-eye single up the middle to bring home the winning run on Saturday. Neither player has been hugely productive overall, but they've made their hits count and these were prime examples.

Strong pitching continues to be the norm for the Twins. Bailey Ober, Ryan and Chris Paddack combined to allow seven earned runs in 20 innings (3.15 ERA). Zebby Matthews struck out nine over four frames on Saturday, showcasing his high-caliber stuff and upside at the back of the rotation.

Solid performances abound, but from my view, the ace and leader of this rotation remains clear to see. Pablo López lowered his ERA to 2.31 on Friday night by holding Kansas City to one run over 5 ⅔ innings, and the bullpen was near-perfect over the next three frames to keep the game tied 1-1 and set up the walk-off. 

Griffin Jax chipped in a scoreless inning, one of two on the week; he's been absolutely fantastic since his early-season slump in April. In his past 15 appearances, Jax has a 1.23 ERA and 24-to-2 K/BB ratio with a league-leading 0.8 fWAR. Following a brief blip, he's back to being the best reliever in baseball, and he's getting late-inning support in this bullpen from the likes of Louis Varland, Brock Stewart and Cole Sands, who combined to allow one run in 7 ⅓ innings.

LOWLIGHTS

I'm not inclined to put too much stock into it, given the situation and conditions, but Durán looked rough on Wednesday in giving up a three-run lead against the Guardians, continuing a run of high-leverage struggles against the division rival. Called upon to put out a fire after Ryan put the first two runners on base to start the ninth, Durán only fanned the flames. He managed to get out of the inning, but not before Cleveland had tied it with a single, wild pitch and double. The right-hander flashed some of his lowest fastball velocity of the season, failing to eclipse 100 MPH with any of his 10 four-seamers.

Again, very tough spot, and he was pitching in the rain. His next time out, on Saturday, Durán got into another jam, loading the bases in a 4-4 game on a single, HBP and walk, but he was able to escape with no damage, and the offense sealed it up in the bottom of the ninth. Durán came on again Sunday, working the 10th with a runner starting on second base, and he was almost able to strand him but gave up a two-out go-ahead RBI single on an 0-2 count to take the loss.

There's no denying that on balance this year, Durán has been downright phenomenal. He's got a 1.11 ERA and his underlying metrics are beyond encouraging. Ultimately I'm less worried about what he looked like this past week, and more so about what he might look like in the second half if Baldelli is forced to keep leaning on the big righty this hard. 

Durán has already appeared 24 times through the team's first 52 games. That puts him on pace to pitch 75 times this season, which would be 16 more than his career high. Meanwhile Varland, who is acclimating to short-burst relief duty for the first time, has already made an MLB-leading 27 appearances, which is an 84-game pace. Only three Twins pitchers have ever made more than 80 appearances in a season: Mike Marshall in 1979 (90), Eddie Guardado in 1996 (83) and J.C. Romero in 2002 (81).

To prevent their most valuable relievers from burning out, the Twins have got to find a way to break this cycle of nonstop close games, which give Rocco little choice but to summon his leverage arms. That means the offense needs to step up. Run-scoring continues to be the clear deficiency weighing this club down. They've mostly been able to overcome it lately, thanks to timely hits and stellar pitching, but games like the two losses this past week – where the lineup really can't get anything going at all – remain far too common.

Correa has been slow to go, but his thunderous home run on Friday at least provides some flourish of optimism. The two other names that stick out most in evaluating the offense's shortcomings are Willi Castro and Royce Lewis.

Castro has really not shown signs of life at the plate since his strong opening series in St. Louis. Baldelli's got him batting at the very bottom the order and it's plain to see why. Last week Castro was 2-for-11 with four strikeouts, and since April 1st he's got a sub-.600 OPS. In a far cry from the celebrated all-around value he offered in his first two seasons with the Twins, Castro has been sub-replacement level through the first third of 2025. 

And as for Lewis ... man. It's genuinely just difficult to watch the guy play ball right now. He is so visibly out of sorts in terms of his mechanics and approach – staggering in the box and flinging his bat toward anything on the outer half – and there isn't much to index on in terms of progress indicators. We hoped the end of last week, when he homered once and nearly did so again on Sunday, would prove to be a turning point, but Lewis backslid during the home stand, managing just one hit in 15 at-bats. Notably, three of his four starts came at DH after the last eight in a row had all come at third base.

The Twins need more from these guys, there's no two ways about. But help is on the way and that can hopefully relieve some pressure.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The offense is in line to receive two critical reinforcements during the upcoming road trip. I hesitate to make any guesses about when exactly Buxton might be back in the lineup – with brain injuries you just never know – but it sounds like it could be fairly imminent, maybe as soon as Monday night. The fact that he's traveling with the team to Tampa, after reportedly ramping up his activity in recent days, is a promising sign.

Wallner's performance in Triple-A leaves little doubt that this swing is once again ready for showtime, but the Twins are inclined to test out his hamstring a little more before welcoming him back into the fold. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports that the team wants to see Wallner play two complete games in the outfield on back-to-back days before giving the green light.

 

The Saints have a day off on Monday and then open a six-game series in Omaha on Tuesday. Wallner could play the first two games there, then take a break on Thursday and join the Twins in Seattle for the series opener on Friday night. If all goes smoothly I would presume that is the plan.

It can't be overstated what the returns of these two bats can do for the Twins lineup. Wallner and Buxton rank behind only Clemens and Luke Keaschall among Minnesota hitters in OPS – and they've done it in larger samples, with much more convincing major-league track records to back it up. 

Further down the line, Keaschall himself will eventually be poised to re-enter the mix. His forearm fracture will keep him sidelined until at least July, but suddenly that's only a little more than a month away. The idea of having all of these guys in the lineup together – alongside a theoretically awakening Correa and Lewis – is extremely exciting, especially when you consider what this team is capable of with even a modestly above average offense. In the coming week, we'll hopefully see some big steps in that direction.

LOOKING AHEAD

As we get head into the last week of May, the Twins are embarking on a 10-game road trip that will take them to opposite corners of the country – from southern Florida to the upper West Coast. The Twins open and close out this trip in minor-league stadiums, against Tampa and the Athletics, with a weekend stop in Seattle sandwiched in between. Can the Twins keep it clicking away from the comforts of Target Field, where they are now 18-8? We're going to find out.

There's a saying that the baseball season doesn't truly begin until Memorial Day. We've officially reached that milestone, so now the race can really get underway. 

MONDAY, MAY 26: TWINS @ RAYS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Zack Littell
TUESDAY, MAY 27: TWINS @ RAYS — RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Taj Bradley
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28: TWINS @ RAYS — RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Drew Rasmussen
FRIDAY, MAY 30: TWINS @ MARINERS — RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Bryan Woo
SATURDAY, MAY 31: TWINS @ MARINERS — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Luis Castillo
SUNDAY, JUNE 1: TWINS @ MARINERS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Logan Evans

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[Parfigliano]

A timely hit today and it's space between KC and CLE and closer to DET.  

Pitching carrying these guys.

[Jocko87]

The vision is quite clear. An average offense becomes a legitimate contender and there's enough hitters around to make that happen.

If the offense gets hot, it could be a magical summer.

[Guest]

Lewis needs three week rehab with St. Paul.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Verified Member said:

Lewis needs three week rehab with St. Paul.

Cedar  Rapids.  Hit A ball.  Work on it

[Peter]

Just worried yesterday’s loss could sting for awhile 😬Lewis is 🤮💩right now and needs to get it going!!! Buxton/wallet will be most welcome back as we need them big time! I’ll take 6-4 road trip! It will be tough as rays are.500 Seattle is division leader and A’s are difficult-as I hate playing teams on losing streak as it’s due factor! No more close games!!! Need more twins blow outs!!!

[mikelink45]

I love these summaries. And I keep thinking about Lewis and why Rocco bats him so high in the order. At this point, 8:00 or 9:00 is the right position for him. I also questioned bride and his usage. So I hope he is the next to go when we return our two good bats. I am enjoying the sequence of good well-pitched games. This is the kind of baseball we grew up on. I remember the Mets with their great pitching staff and lousy hitting and they went all the way to win the world series. Pitching still carries a club and with our two good hitters coming back now and one in July we may be more than just a pitching team again.  

[Jeff K]

I definitely think Royce Lewis should go to St. Paul and figure things out or go on the IL as something is just not right.  Twins pitching has been extraordinary.  Lopez, Ryan and Ober could all be all stars and right now I would be on Lopez and Ryan.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I love these summaries. And I keep thinking about Lewis and why Rocco bats him so high in the order. At this point, 8:00 or 9:00 is the right position for him. I also questioned bride and his usage. So I hope he is the next to go when we return our two good bats. I am enjoying the sequence of good well-pitched games. This is the kind of baseball we grew up on. I remember the Mets with their great pitching staff and lousy hitting and they went all the way to win the world series. Pitching still carries a club and with our two good hitters coming back now and one in July we may be more than just a pitching team again.  

I agree... not having him bat until 9:00pm or later right now would be a start :)

[High heat]

It would be nice to get Wallner and Buxton back.  
 

I think it would be best to use Castro as a regular utility player going forward.  Work as a replacement for a guy on days off, punch run or pinch hit late inning defense replacement.

 

Be nice to get Bader a few days off as well.  Groin injuries can be tough and linger.