3 Unlikely Things That Need to Happen for the Minnesota Twins to Be World Series Contenders

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins are the favorite to win the American League Central. Despite that, they have just the 14th-best odds to win the World Series. Here are three unlikely things that need to happen for a real October run to materialize.

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, the Twins will be a competitive force in the American League. PECOTA currently projects them to win 87 games, roughly five games ahead of the Kansas City Royals for the division crown and seventh-most in baseball. Yet, I don’t know that anyone views them as even a dark-horse World Series contender. This isn’t particularly surprising (or even unwarranted), as it seems that for the better part of this century, the winner of the AL Central isn’t taken as seriously as other division winners. Many view the AL Central as the weakest division in baseball

The talent is here for the team to be one of the elite teams in the majors, but that's not the prevailing view of most baseball observers, inside or beyond Twins Territory. With multiple players already on the injured list and Austin Martin (who some expected to be a contributor for the big-league club) relegated to Triple-A St. Paul, what needs to happen this season for the Twins to improve from “competitive” to true title contender?

No. 1: 15+ fWAR from Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis
Bottom line: the Twins need Buxton, Correa, and Lewis to be productive and healthy to have any shot at a World Series in 2025. Not only are Buxton and Correa two of the team’s most experienced and expensive players, but they’re MVP candidates when at their best. For Lewis, he’s flashed the same potential but hasn’t been healthy or consistent enough to be in the same tier as the other two. Oh, and he’s already starting the year on the injured list with a hamstring strain.

While we don’t put a ton of stock into spring training numbers, all reports suggest that Buxton is feeling better than ever. He enjoyed a great warmup to the regular season, with a .950 OPS, two home runs, and an excellent walk rate across 36 spring training at-bats. On the other hand, Correa is carrying a .337 OPS with zero extra-base hits and an extreme ground ball rate. It’s not what you want to see out of your $36-million shortstop but, like we (should) take Buxton’s spring training success with a grain of salt, I’m not going to really start worrying about Correa until the calendar hits June 1st.

550+ Innings Pitched from Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober
For multiple reasons, the Twins need the top of their rotation to be workhorses this season. First, if the three of them can combine for 550 innings, that likely means they’re staying healthy and pitching well enough to go deeper into games. If there is one thing you need in playoff baseball, it’s a formidable top three starters, and the Twins might have the best trio in all of baseball. 

Second, and maybe more importantly, this would save the bullpen for the back end of the rotation, who have significant question marks. Can Chris Paddack stay healthy (I’m sensing a theme here)? If he can stay healthy, how deep can he go into games, and how long into the season can he keep taking the ball? It’s been three full seasons since Paddack eclipsed 100 innings pitched, and in that season (2021), he averaged under five innings per start. Even if he can give the Twins 25 starts or more, they’ll be lucky if he hits the 150-inning mark in 2025. Similarly, Simeon Woods Richardson seemingly ran out of gas after about 100 (very good) innings last season. While I think Zebby Matthews and/or David Festa eventually take his spot, any candidate to anchor the starting rotation will reach a career high in innings once we hit September. In short, the bullpen will consistently need to cover the last four-plus innings of ball games started by whoever is taking the ball in the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation.

A 3.5+ fWAR season from one pre-arbitration hitter (sans Lewis), plus Harrison Bader or Ty France
The Twins are going to need one of their many promising pre-arbitration players (excluding Lewis) to step up. Pick one (or more, if you’re greedy): Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez, or Luke Keaschall. Whoever you choose, the Twins need their player development to come through in the form of a very good year from one of these players. The two players with the clearest path to this threshold would be Wallner and Larnach, who are projected to be regulars, but Julien and Miranda should also get enough at-bats to become qualified hitters. Just how high of a bar is 3.5 fWAR? It would put this player somewhere around the top 50 in all of baseball. (I did ask which unlikely things need to happen for the Twins to become a contender, and I really think this is one of them.) They need another bat in the middle third of the order—someone who puts real stress on opposing pitchers.

When it comes to Bader and France, the two veterans need to make their presences known. Even with a healthy season from Buxton, Bader likely sees a decent amount of time in center field, in addition to relieving Wallner and Larnach as needed. He could very well end the season with 500-plus plate appearances, despite not being a traditional starter, given Buxton’s maintenance plan and the need for a corner outfielder who can handle left-handed pitching. France, immediately anointed the primary first baseman, will look to bounce back after an abysmal 2024 campaign. For what it’s worth, he accrued 3.2 fWAR in 2021, so a 3.5 fWAR season isn’t completely out of the question, but it is certainly unlikely.

While health was a recurring theme throughout this article, that alone won’t propel the Twins to “contender” status, if we define that term as "genuinely capable of winning it all". They also need players to be productive while healthy, which is far from a guarantee for all of the hitters mentioned above. That was the motivation in using fWAR as a barometer—rather than innings, as was the case with the top of the rotation. Pundits aren’t off-base when excluding the Twins from World Series discussions. It will take a considerable lift from multiple players to force the club into that conversation.

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Which of the three unlikely events are most likely? Least likely? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[bean5302]

Yeah, I mean, if all three of Buxton Correa and Lewis combined for their best career years at the same time and Lopez, Ryan and Ober combined for their healthiest and most productive seasons ever and the Twins get career years from a couple other people, they definitely are World Series Contenders.

This kind of happened in 1991. Tapani, Morris and Erickson all had career years. Puckett, and Mack had awesome years, Knoblauch was RoY and the Twins got big performances from Hrbek, Davis and a few others.

Having everything come together does happen, and it can lead a team to a World Series, it's just not really a strategy.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Good article. This encapsulates where the Twins really are as a team. They have enough talent to be a true contender if everything clicks (I define a "true contender" as a team has a chance to go to the World Series). Conversely, they have a relatively small margin for error. More so than in past years for sure because of the improved depth of young players getting them more lottery tickets for someone to break out, but still a relatively small margin for error because they won't go out and spend money to fill holes when they appear. This group is it; there is no cavalry coming over the hill to save us.

I think the Twins best chance to get to the World Series is the survive and get hot scenario. That starts with the Twins wining 85 – 92 games and taking the Central. Step 2 is they then get hot at the plate and are able to start one of their top three starters almost every playoff game, maybe combined with a lucky match up or one of the best teams getting knocked out early in an upset. All of a sudden they're in the ALCS  against a team they can beat like Kansas City, Texas, or Houston, and voilà! They get lucky and make it to the World Series. Is this likely? Of course not. Is it within the reasonable realm of possibility? Absolutely.

So I'm saying there's a chance . . .

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just wanted to add, I think they'll need to be aggressive and ready to add prior to the deadline. Not certain what it will be yet, but injuries may make that answer more obvious. Hopefully ownership group, be in the Pohlads or whoever at that point, (but right now it looks like the Pohlads) will allow the front office to make a deal or deals that will help the team.

Otherwise, if there is good luck with health, I think the rest will get sorted out.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that spirit of these requirements is good, but the actual numbers are probably not likely.  15+ WAR from those three specific players is highly unlikely, not only because they aren't likely to play enough games to build that up, but also because that's really, really, good years from all three. In 1991, their top three position player WARs were Shane Mack, Kirby Puckett, and Chili Davis, and they only combined for 12.6 WAR.  So. . . I say unlikely.

I do think the second item is likely, if not quite specifically.  550 IP is over 180 for all three.  I think they will all be good, but these days, 180 innings is pretty much never missing a start.  If you said 500 IP I think that's more doable, and probably nearly as effective. In 1991, Tapani (viewed as their third starter) was their ace, with a 143 ERA+ and a 6.8 WAR season in 244 (!) IP.  I would be thrilled with that from any of our big three starters.  So. . . I say somewhat unlikely, but it may not matter -- particularly if the bullpen lives up to the hype.

I'm going to put the third item in the likely EXCEPT, one of the seasons won't be from Bader or France.  They will likely just be OK at best, but I think the Twins have plenty of pre-arb guys who could have really good seasons -- Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, maybe even Julien if he finds his stroke.  So. . . I say highly likely.

 

[Guest]

This article could've been titled, "Teams like the Twins will continue to swim upstream in 2025 in a system that needs an overhaul before fans depart in wholesale numbers."  

https://www.wsj.com/sports/baseball/mlb-wealth-gap-dodgers-mets-yankees-7614926d?mod=hp_lead_pos9

Given a choice between increasing one's minority stake in a Chicago market and taking all the risk in the Twin Cities, I'd say the choice is pretty clear....

[Karbo]

I think it would take career years from a couple of guys like France, Julian, Miranda, and Jeffers. The pitching looks like it will be strong enough to compete, so that leaves the hitters to step it up a bit.

[LambchoP]

An actual plan at the trade deadline would help a lot too. If we are competitive and have a clear hole or two to fill, then they need to go out and fill it. Unlike last year when they picked up the nobody reliever literally just to show they did something.

[Otaknam]

On 3/27/2025 at 8:20 AM, bean5302 said:

Yeah, I mean, if all three of Buxton Correa and Lewis combined for their best career years at the same time and Lopez, Ryan and Ober combined for their healthiest and most productive seasons ever and the Twins get career years from a couple other people, they definitely are World Series Contenders.

This kind of happened in 1991. Tapani, Morris and Erickson all had career years. Puckett, and Mack had awesome years, Knoblauch was RoY and the Twins got big performances from Hrbek, Davis and a few others.

Having everything come together does happen, and it can lead a team to a World Series, it's just not really a strategy.

One difference is that Morris was an actual ace, which the current Twins do not have. I don’t see any starters having as high a ceiling as being considered an ace. It’s difficult to make a WS run without an ace stopper. They also don’t have both the production and leadership of Puckett. I do believe that Wallner will make a serious positive impact and hit 30+ homers. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

One difference is that Morris was an actual ace, which the current Twins do not have. I don’t see any starters having as high a ceiling as being considered an ace. It’s difficult to make a WS run without an ace stopper. They also don’t have both the production and leadership of Puckett. I do believe that Wallner will make a serious positive impact and hit 30+ homers. 

Morris had an ace level mustache and diva attitude acceptable for an "ace," but on the mound, Morris was was never competitive with the best pitchers in the league. Even in 1991, he was the 3rd best pitcher in the rotation behind Tapani and Erickson. Even at his peak, Morris walked a lot of guys, spiked a lot of balls in the dirt and gave up a lot of hits. Thankfully, Morris had a host of gold glovers backing him up.

[TheLeviathan]

Honestly, this is the recipe for anyone in the bottom 2/3rds of baseball in revenue and payroll.

Then.....the blind luck every World Series team needs in the small sample playoffs.

[by jiminy]

On 3/27/2025 at 11:33 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the Twins best chance to get to the World Series is the survive and get hot scenario.

This is actually far more important than the rest, at least when it comes to winning a World Series. It doesn't matter if Buxton, Correa, and Lewis all have 5 WAR seasons if they are not healthy when the postseason starts. And it doesn't matter if they were hurt or sucked all season if they get hot in the playoffs. The team needs to be good enough and healthy enough in the regular season to make the playoffs, but that's it. 

Just to be clear, though, none of this is disagreeing with the article, which asked a different question: What would it take for the Twins to be seen and treated as a real contender? That would indeed require almost everyone to reach their upside at once, as he said.

And that would be a lot more satisfying than watching a mediocre team go on a playoff run, exciting as that would be. There's a difference between proving you are the best, and proving that there are so many teams in the playoffs now that they don't mean as much anymore. It would be way cooler to actually BE the best team, not just a playoff fluke.

But given the unequal funding streams, that's a much bigger long shot. So, given that the deck is stacked against us, even a fluky win would be sweet. And if it involved bearing the Yankees in the playoffs, it would be exquisite. But having all our gambles pay off and our star-studded lineup being favored against the Yankees, and then beating them, would be best of all.

[by jiminy]

25 minutes ago, by jiminy said:

.There's a difference between proving you are the best, and proving that there are so many teams in the playoffs now that they don't mean as much anymore. It would be way cooler to actually BE the best team, not just a playoff fluke.

Last year raised an interesting question for me. Would I rather knock the Yankees out of the playoffs and go down in the next round, or get a lucky draw and make the World Series by beating teams like the Blue Jays and Royals, only to get crushed by the Dodgers? I might rather take down the Yankees, even if it meant going one and done.

I'm not even sure I wouldn't rather do that than win the World Series, if it was against another pretender like the Marlins. Those wild card championships can seem kind of lame. Fun if you are the winner, of course. But they devalue what the World Series used to mean: the best of the best.