Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Right Field

[RpR]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Matt Wallner is, indeed, a very, very bad OF. His OF jumps are amongst the worst, if not THE worst, in the entire league. Of 180 OF that played at least 10 balls, he covered the least ground, tied with a DH. In 2023 he was 178/181 OF beating out 2 players that teams rightfully have moved to DH, and a player that decided to hang em up. 

His arm doesn't make up for all of that, but it does help make it a bit more acceptable. 

Obviously his power is the reason he's in the majors. But with that K-rate there WILL be extremely bad stretches. There will be 2-3 week periods where he's hitting under .100. But there will also be week-long stretches where his bat alone wins games. 

He's going to be very frustrating, but should be somewhere in the 2.5-3.0 WAR range at the end of the year. I'm actually encouraged to see his K-rate at 25% in spring, a nice improvement from the 39% he showed last spring training which obviously foretold a very, very rough start to the season. 

 

His throwing accuracy is a butt clenching item.

In his interview the other day, he said Baldelli called him Iron Bone.

This year is his chance to show if he average, or not.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You taking the 800 career HRs and 150 career WAR seriously... Perhaps you also believe Aaron Judge's biggest concern is a poster on TwinsDaily's respect, too? LOL

You taking my bit of humor seriously is even better.  Your entertaining rant (I likened it to Belushi's classic one, after all) raised an interesting question, though I don't know an easy way to ask b-r.com's Stathead tool to answer it.

/ edit - but by using that tool and sifting around a bit, I found that a slow start isn't as limiting as I thought.  Steve Finley, for instance, finished with 304 homers, which by itself I find astounding - and through his age-26 season he had a mighty total of 13.  Jeremy Burnitz slugged 315 in his career and through age 26 had only 16.  Stormin' Norm Cash, 377 and 22 respectively.  Andres Galaraga, 399 and 25.  Edgar Martinez, who I should have thought of without searching, 309 and 2 (!!!!).  Raul Martinez, 305 and 3, only slightly less of a slow start than Edgar.

And, probably the champ I am looking for, "our own" Nelson Cruz: 464 HR and 16 at age-26.  Either a more systematic way of searching, or a flash of further insight, could confirm or deny there is someone else.

So maybe 500 isn't out of the question for Wallner.  Who knows, if he plays deep into his 50s, he could reach that 800 mark after all! 😀

[DocBauer]

I've been a bug Wallner fan and believe for some time. When following him MILB he'd advance, struggle a bit, then show improvement in virtually every category. Year to year, always improved. He's done that at the ML level as well, though he's only accumulated a little over 1 full season from being "held back" in 2023, and his early season demotion in 2024.

Now, keep in mind his 2022 debut was a whopping 18 games and 65 PA:

.228/ .323/ .385/ .707

.249/ .370/ .507/ .877

.259/ .372/ .523/ .894

Now, I'm not going to suggest he's going to improve on his 2024 quad slash line. I mean, those are All Star numbers as is. But that's not to say he can't maintain something close to an average of his 2023-2024 quad slash lines.

His BABIP may be high, but then again, when he squares up, he hits the ball HARD, unlike his predecessor Kepler who always maintained a frustratingly low BABIP for his career. I'm in total agreement that he's going to be hot and cold and be really frustrating at times, and carry the team for other stretches. But his OB% is not exclusive to HBP numbers. He actually does BB quite a bit. Part of his K issue is taking pitches and eyeing the zone pretty well, somewhat similar to Sano, but other sluggers as well. I'm not 100% convinced about him batting leadoff, but I do see the method in the madness of him there. But the K% will be a key. He's probably All Star capable at 30% ish. (Hopefully a little lower in time). But 40% lowers his ability to produce for sure.

Defensively, I think he's going to be OK. He's a good athlete with much better speed than you'd expect from such a large human being. The 2 keys for him are good reads off the bat so he can get going "properly", and also adjusting to Target Field's angles and the overhang in RF, since half the games will obviously be at home. Now, he's certainly played quite a few games in RF there, but he's also been asked to play a lot of LF previously. Kepler played there 8 years and knew the park like he helped design it. So there still might be a learning curve for Wallner. But he has one of the best arms I've ever seen. And that will help mitigate some of that learning curve. 

The RF depth, like most of the OF, looks good. Larnach will be able to spell him once in a while. And not too long from now, Rodriguez and Jenkins will be part of the equation. Bader and Keirsey also offer solid, if somewhat temporary options there as well.

He's produced 4.2 WAR in his still somewhat brief career. Including 2.2 in 2024. Despite probably being "streaky"...and experience will hopefully even out his overall contributions...I think I'd be disappointed if he wasn't a 3 WAR player in 2025.

[yeahyabetcha]

A nice career year of 140 RF starts, batting clean up hitting .260 with 30 home runs and 100 rbis from Wallner sound ok?

[Bodie]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am a believer.  I like his strong arm in RF which since Clemente has been recognized as a key to good fielding in that position.

Funny.

No one had more people run against him, and no one allowed more success to those advancing runners among outfielders than.... wait for it... Matt Wallner.

His strong arm has ZERO respect among MLB players and coaches as PROVEN by them running on him more than anyone else.  And they are proven right by being more successful than against any other qualified outfielder in the bigs.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was bigger and stronger than Mike Tyson. Tyson KOs him every time. Strength be damned.  Having a desired trait that are part of greatness (i.e. arm strength) doesn"t mean greatness. Clementine (to use your example) had superior arm strength, amazing accuracy (kinda handy if you throw harder than anyone- ask those on the receiving end of a Sano throw from 3B!), above average speed and baserunning ability (in his prime) and hit for both average (.300 career ba) and power (in a power starved era).  

To compare Wallner to Clemente is even more laughable than the author's assertion that he is among the best dozen hitters in baseball. 

[NYCTK]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

His BABIP may be high, but then again, when he squares up, he hits the ball HARD, unlike his predecessor Kepler who always maintained a frustratingly low BABIP for his career.

Was curious, so I wanted to see what other's with his "profile" had for a BABIP. 

300, 320, 330, et al

I think it's totally reasonable to expect Matt Wallner to have a higher BABIP than average, but no one should expect a 390...or even a 350. Twins fans need to be comfortable with him hitting .230, with that same mammoth power and atrocious defense. If not, it's going to be a long season. 

[MinnInPa]

On 3/12/2025 at 8:56 AM, DJL44 said:

That's not going to happen for Wallner. His approach will never lead to a below-average strikeout rate. Guess you'll never be a "believer".

no ..i will not... MLB is so hard to watch with guys like this ...K, K, K , HR.. i'll take a guy like Arraez anyday

[MinnInPa]

22 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In a bubble we can complain about K-Rate, but the game has changed in the last 10 years where higher K-rates have become acceptable.  Trading OBP for Slugging % is the norm.

If Wallner were to get his K-Rate to 25% and maintain his other stats, we would be talking about a top 10 player in baseball.  I would be happy if Wallner just got his K-Rate down to the low 30s.

 

nah.... all these K's just make the game very hard to watch

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

no ..i will not... MLB is so hard to watch with guys like this ...K, K, K , HR.. i'll take a guy like Arraez anyday

Guess you weren't a Harmon Killebrew fan.

[mikelink45]

15 hours ago, Bodie said:

Funny.

No one had more people run against him, and no one allowed more success to those advancing runners among outfielders than.... wait for it... Matt Wallner.

His strong arm has ZERO respect among MLB players and coaches as PROVEN by them running on him more than anyone else.  And they are proven right by being more successful than against any other qualified outfielder in the bigs.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was bigger and stronger than Mike Tyson. Tyson KOs him every time. Strength be damned.  Having a desired trait that are part of greatness (i.e. arm strength) doesn"t mean greatness. Clementine (to use your example) had superior arm strength, amazing accuracy (kinda handy if you throw harder than anyone- ask those on the receiving end of a Sano throw from 3B!), above average speed and baserunning ability (in his prime) and hit for both average (.300 career ba) and power (in a power starved era).  

To compare Wallner to Clemente is even more laughable than the author's assertion that he is among the best dozen hitters in baseball. 

I know you want to really drive home your point, but I did not compare Wallner to Clemente - I said a strong throwing arm is the best weapon for RF as proven by Clemente.

I can take disagreement and we obviously have it, but be accurate.  I still like Wallner and I think his arm is a real weapon.

[Bodie]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I know you want to really drive home your point, but I did not compare Wallner to Clemente - I said a strong throwing arm is the best weapon for RF as proven by Clemente.

I can take disagreement and we obviously have it, but be accurate.  I still like Wallner and I think his arm is a real weapon.

He's has a weapon all right!  And it is constantly and constantly used against the Twins. 

Hope he can have a Rosario and go from near worst to near best at a corner (but not do a Rosario again and flip it back again to bottom of the barrel). 

As a fan I root for it. As a grown adult, I don't expect it.

[MinnInPa]

On 3/13/2025 at 8:21 PM, DJL44 said:

Guess you weren't a Harmon Killebrew fan.

i believe his career k rate was only 20%

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

i believe his career k rate was only 20%

20% is league average now. It was 13-15% during Killebrew's career.