Ranking Last Year’s Twins Rookies on Projected 2025 Performance

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, I agree. I expect Keirsey is a slower version of Andrew Stevenson. 

.243/.310/.388 OPS .668, .109 ISO, 8.0% BB, 27.4% K wRC+ 80 (Stevenson MLB)

Career AAA lines
.290/.354/.443 OPS .796, .153 ISO, 7.8% BB, 22.0% K (Stevenson)
vs. 
.292/.370/.451 OPS .821, .159 ISO, 10.2% BB, 22.4% K (Keirsey, Jr.)

Last season in St. Paul
.317/.395/.522 OPS .916, ISO .204, 8.9% BB. 20.6% K, wRC+ 131 (2023 Stevenson)
vs.
.300/.368/.476 OPS .845, ISO .231, 9.5% BB, 23.0% K, wRC+ 119 (2024 Keirsey, Jr.)
 

I could have, and perhaps should have, used Stevenson as the BABIP poster boy instead of Beckham.  .383 BABIP in St Paul. .243 BABIP for Minnesota.  Things tend to even out over time, but the length of time is often nontrivial, and what you end up with is "he sure laid an egg when he came back up to the majors" when really it was "he's on a hot tear at AAA that will be hard to sustain wherever he is, he's the same guy he always was."

[dxpavelka]

358 PA for a catcher who if the scouting reports are right can't hit or play defense.  Sure hope the Dodgers were wrong about Diego Cartaya.

 

[Blyleven2011]

12 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors, his K rate was 30% and his BABIP was above .400. 

I think he's a huge bust candidate and would be happy to trade him away. 

Keisey Jr has made great progress  the past 2 or 3 years  , keirsey was a 4th round draft choice  , when he hit professional  ball luck wasn't on his side , injuries derailed his development  , since all the injuries he has almost played 3 years of solid baseball moving up levels , he had a good aaa  season   , time will tell , give the kid the chance and he might just surprise us  ...

[TwinsDr2021]

I am going to go out on a limb and say if Helman (391 PA), Carmargo (358 PA), Martin (395 PA) and Keirsey(495 PA) = 1639 which would be over 25% of the team Plate appearances last year. On top of Festa, SWR, and Matthews getting 358 innings which again is 25% of the teams innings something has gone horribly wrong with the 2025 season.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

he had a good aaa  season   , time will tell , give the kid the chance and he might just surprise us  ...

A chance to do what? be the 5th outfielder, I think he will might get that chance, the Roster with no injuries will come down to a bench of Castro, Catcher, Martin and Helman or Keirsay, IMO.

If the infield is healthy when Buxton goes down they give the job to Castro. If Castro is needed as an infield replacement I think Martin starts against lefties and Keirsay against righties. Unless of course it is a few months in and EROD has been doing well, then he likely gets the righties.

This roster construction really doesn't give Helman or Keirsay much of a chance to be anything more than the last two guys on the bench, unless something horribly has gone wrong, like CC and Buxton are out an extended period of time and Larnach or Wallner is terrible, and Lee and Julien the same.

Keirsay is fighting the 28 year old player that was never really a prospects problem. Not even the teams not trying are going to give a starting job to him without major things going wrong, because there is very little upside to it, even if he does well, he has limited trade value (age) and he will be out of his prime very shortly. The best he can hope for is to play great defensive and when given a chance against right handed pitchers do a decent job, if he does those two things he could spent the next few years helping a major league club, if he doesn't do those things he might as well join Stevenson playing abroad.

[NYCTK]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Try to watch as many plate appearances as you can. It will take less time than whatever moments you spend on Twins Daily. I think you might be surprised.

I can't really watch baseball highlights at work. Not to the level I'm posting on here anyways. I'll see him if he makes it to the show. 

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Keisey Jr has made great progress  the past 2 or 3 years  , keirsey was a 4th round draft choice  , when he hit professional  ball luck wasn't on his side , injuries derailed his development  , since all the injuries he has almost played 3 years of solid baseball moving up levels , he had a good aaa  season   , time will tell , give the kid the chance and he might just surprise us  ...

Sure, he's made "some" progress. He was a 2018 pick. He put up a .199/.297/.433 OPS .730 wRC+ 96 line in High A as a 24 year old in their 4th professional season. That's potential outright release from the organization stuff. 
2021, 4th pro year, Age 24, High A - wRC+ 96 with a 30% K rate.
2022, 5th pro year, Age 25, AA - wRC+ 86, though he cut the K's down to 23%
2023, 6th pro year, Age 26, AAA - wRC+ 93, learned to take walks.

The problem is Keirsey is old for a prospect in years he's spent in the system, the amount of experience he's had (2000 PA despite being out of college...), and his actual physical age. In the same way finesse or polished pitchers without good can look good in AAA, Keirsey should look good in AAA with all his playing experience. The likelihood he has the talent to succeed versus MLB pitching is pretty low.

Nobody is demanding Mickey Gasper (who has been a consistently and dramatically better hitter than Keirsey) is entitled to substantial opportunity because Gasper has flaws.

[Blyleven2011]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sure, he's made "some" progress. He was a 2018 pick. He put up a .199/.297/.433 OPS .730 wRC+ 96 line in High A as a 24 year old in their 4th professional season. That's potential outright release from the organization stuff. 
2021, 4th pro year, Age 24, High A - wRC+ 96 with a 30% K rate.
2022, 5th pro year, Age 25, AA - wRC+ 86, though he cut the K's down to 23%
2023, 6th pro year, Age 26, AAA - wRC+ 93, learned to take walks.

The problem is Keirsey is old for a prospect in years he's spent in the system, the amount of experience he's had (2000 PA despite being out of college...), and his actual physical age. In the same way finesse or polished pitchers without good can look good in AAA, Keirsey should look good in AAA with all his playing experience. The likelihood he has the talent to succeed versus MLB pitching is pretty low.

Nobody is demanding Mickey Gasper (who has been a consistently and dramatically better hitter than Keirsey) is entitled to substantial opportunity because Gasper has flaws.

Get over the age thing , my point is , he was injured for many years but since he has played mostly injured free baseball he has developed at the levels and he keeps tapping into his talent , even if he turns out just a couple of average years or even increase his trade value it would be a plus for the twins  ...

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

I could have, and perhaps should have, used Stevenson as the BABIP poster boy instead of Beckham.  .383 BABIP in St Paul. .243 BABIP for Minnesota.  Things tend to even out over time, but the length of time is often nontrivial, and what you end up with is "he sure laid an egg when he came back up to the majors" when really it was "he's on a hot tear at AAA that will be hard to sustain wherever he is, he's the same guy he always was."

BABIP goes higher with higher strikeout % Keirsey was around 20&. His speed is rated much better than Stevenson so that does not make him a comparable player. Speed allows you to beat out more infield hits.  Defense can take that away but his doubles and triples totals would suggest that he is not just beating out infield hits like Celestino was when he came up. Keirsey had BABIP around .370 for both years in AAA. It gets less flukey with larger sample sizes. A spray chart might give an indication of actual talent. Whether or not he can come close to a .300 BA in the majors depends more on where the hole in his swing is. The SO% would suggest one. Probably what has held him back last year from a real shot is he is not a home run hitter. What he will be in the majors is like many prospect is a question mark. He could e like Larnach and become better with experience, or he could just be another not quite good enough player.  

 

[chpettit19]

Kyle Isbel is my Keirsey comp. And if that's who he is, I'm totally fine with him being the 4th or 5th OFer. 

Both were 2018 picks. Isbel in the 3rd round, DaShawn in the 4th. Both entering their age 28 seasons.

Isbel's AAA line: .270/.360/.454/.814
Keirsey's line:     .292/.370/.451/.821

Neither is lighting fast, but neither is slow. Neither is a gold glover, but neither is you or me out there. The Royals are trying to win the division with Isbel as their starting CFer. If Keirsey is our backup with Emma and Keaschal as added support I'm good with it. I don't think he's a star, and I wouldn't want him or Isbel as my starting CFer for the season. But if Keirsey is Isbel I think we're alright to start the year with him in the 4th or 5th OFer/backup CF spot. Especially because I think Emma or Keaschal take the reins if/when Buxton is out for a month plus.

On a side note, these 2 are good examples of the organization you're in mattering. Keirsey missed time with injuries, but if he's in a different org he may very well have gotten a real crack at the majors one of the last 2 years. Like Isbel has gotten multiple times. 

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

....Neither is a gold glover... 

...Keirsey missed time with injuries, but if he's in a different org he may very well have gotten a real crack at the majors one of the last 2 years. Like Isbel has gotten multiple times. 

ehhhhhhhhhhhh... I think you're underselling what Isbel accomplished and why he got his opportunity. Isbel earned it, and he earned it at age 24 while still being a legit prospect with a way better track record. In regard to how valuable Isbel is, OAA grades him as solid in CF due to what are essentially the very best outfielder instincts in baseball, DRS says he's good, UZR says he's a bit above average. His baserunning is also stellar.

Isbel      a24 AAA .269/.357/.444 wRC+ 116 (105 games before promotion to MLB)
vs. 
Keirsey a24 A+ .199/.297/.433 wRC+ 96

I'm fine with Keirsey if he can be Austin Martin (or even a bit better than last year's Isbel) at the plate, but with good defensive instincts as a 4th outfielder. I just think it's a stretch to project him higher than 0.5-1.0 WAR.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

ehhhhhhhhhhhh... I think you're underselling what Isbel accomplished and why he got his opportunity. Isbel earned it, and he earned it at age 24 while still being a legit prospect with a way better track record. In regard to how valuable Isbel is, OAA grades him as solid in CF due to what are essentially the very best outfielder instincts in baseball, DRS says he's good, UZR says he's a bit above average. His baserunning is also stellar.

Isbel      a24 AAA .269/.357/.444 wRC+ 116 (105 games before promotion to MLB)
vs. 
Keirsey a24 A+ .199/.297/.433 wRC+ 96

I'm fine with Keirsey if he can be Austin Martin (or even a bit better than last year's Isbel) at the plate, but with good defensive instincts as a 4th outfielder. I just think it's a stretch to project him higher than 0.5-1.0 WAR.

I didn't say Keirsey would've debuted at 24. I acknowledged he'd had injuries early in his career. He played fewer than 50 games that season due to injuries. If the 2021, 2022, or 2023 Royals weren't rebuilding Isbel would've had a harder time getting on their roster. If the Twins were rebuilding Keirsey would've likely gotten real MLB time here last year. I don't think it's controversial in the least to suggest that the organization you're in has a very real impact on your chances to get real MLB playing time.

Kyle Isbel debuted on April 1st, 2021. That was the 2nd game of the season for the Royals. He was on their opening day roster. He'd never even played in AAA at that point. In fact, hadn't played above A+ ball where he had an 86 wRC+ before he debuted. (2020 in between) Jarrod Dyson was also an outfielder on that opening day roster. Erick Pena, Nick Loftin (utility player), Seuly Matias, Tyler Gentry, Darryl Collins, and Lucius Fox (utility player) were the other OF prospects on their MLB top 30 prospect list. They were 18, 22 (in A+ ball that season), 22 (in A+ ball), 22 (in A+ ball), 19, and 23 (in AAA) years old respectively. Isbel's AAA performance didn't get him a chance because he'd never played in AAA before he debuted. A horrible roster with horrible prospects to compete with got him his chance. Because the organization you're in matters.

Yes, Isbel has some of the best reactions in baseball, but also takes some of the worst routes. If Keirsey is a balance of those he's the same kind of fielder. I watched a lot of Keirsey with the Saints (in person and on milb.tv). He's not a star there, but he's a good defender. Isbel isn't a star fielder, but he's a good defender. Neither is PCA or Brenton Doyle or Buxton in his prime, but neither is Margot or Martin either. Maybe Isbel is slightly better, but Keirsey can defend.

I wouldn't project him higher than 1 WAR either, because he isn't going to play that much. Could he be a 1.5 WAR player in 136 games like the range Isbel is in? I think so. But I don't want either of them playing 136 games in CF for me. I hope Keirsey is passed up by Emma or Keaschal quickly if there's a need for 136 starts in CF for the Twins.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

His speed is rated much better than Stevenson so that does not make him a comparable player.

He's way faster than a player that was consistently around 29 ft/sec? That makes him elite, fastest in the league.

I think you've bought into the hype way too much. 

[D.C Twins]

Keirsey is an easy decision for 4th outfield rolling into a season with zero budget flexibility and absentee ownership.