Corbin Burnes

[mnfireman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/diamondbacks-to-sign-corbin-burnes.html

[DJL44]

Scherzer and Verlander are the top names for pitchers now, but Jack Flaherty might be the best bet for production. Pivetta should have taken the QO. Lots of pitchers left before teams start calling about Chris Paddack.

Bregman, Santander and Alonso are the last QO position players available.

[Vanimal46]

It has to be a very frustrating offseason for Orioles fans. 

[Parfigliano]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It has to be a very frustrating offseason for Orioles fans. 

Wonder what that feels like.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/diamondbacks-to-sign-corbin-burnes.html

Pablo is a bargain.

[cmoss84]

56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Scherzer and Verlander are the top names for pitchers now, but Jack Flaherty might be the best bet for production. Pivetta should have taken the QO. Lots of pitchers left before teams start calling about Chris Paddack.

Bregman, Santander and Alonso are the last QO position players available.

Member when Max and Justin were on Detroit 20 years ago? I member.

Is now the perfect time to trade for Jordan Montgomery?

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Member when Max and Justin were on Detroit 20 years ago? I member.

Is now the perfect time to trade for Jordan Montgomery?

He's making 22.5M this year. You trading Lopez or Correa to fit his 6.00 ERA and 15%K rate on to the roster?

[cmoss84]

27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

He's making 22.5M this year. You trading Lopez or Correa to fit his 6.00 ERA and 15%K rate on to the roster?

Naw. Arizona flips most the bill.

Also, he's 32 and had a decent career before '24.

[tony&rodney]

Burnes signing will bring interest in Montgomery. The D-backs won't have to send much money if they want to just get rid of him because a few teams are still needing pitching. The Twins are not interested in Monty.

Arizona still needs a closer. It is interesting that they are spending for this coming year. They do have nearly $70M coming off the books in one year.

I thought the Twins might have been a reasonable trade partner with Arizona if players like Duran, Castro, and a few others were in a conversation but I don't see it now and it seems like there never was any chatter between the two clubs. 

The Giants must be reeling from this news though. Burnes is now in the division. Aggressive deals are bringing in free agents to clubs intent on competing, leaving other teams to scraps or challenge trades. Baltimore is in a tough spot right now because the Yankees and Red Sox have flexed their cash a little bit, making the division fight a bit tougher for them.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

Member when Max and Justin were on Detroit 20 years ago? I member.

Is now the perfect time to trade for Jordan Montgomery?

I remember when were NYM.  Not happily.

[Cory Engelhardt]

On 12/28/2024 at 10:02 AM, Parfigliano said:

Pablo is a bargain.

So is Ryan and Ober for that matter. 

I'm not saying we trade any of them. But Baltimore is a team that HAS to be getting desperate at some point to add pitching, right? I'm fairly certain they are talking to teams about trades. Seattle for sure, but there are others. We'll see what they do too.

[bean5302]

On 12/28/2024 at 10:02 AM, Parfigliano said:

Pablo is a bargain.

Joe Ryan is a bargain. Bailey Ober is a bargain. David Festa is a bargain. Simeon Woods Richardson is a bargain. If Pablo Lopez wasn't a bargain compared to free agent deals, the front office would have quite a bit of egg on their face. Lopez was extended while he was still under team control for 2 years, and he had never had a big payday because he was signed as an international free agent with a $280k bonus way, way back in 2012. The Twins had a huge amount of leverage in negotiations.

[bean5302]

I don't know as it's surprising Burnes got that huge contract given his history, but I sure wouldn't have been interested in giving Burnes that kind of contract. From fastball velo, to contact rates, K rates, and some other batted ball metrics, there are reasons to be concerned about how Burnes is going to age now that he's entering his age 30 season. The contract does include $60MM in deferrals so that helps a ton in terms of annual cost.

Obviously, pretty much everybody is stunned it was the Diamondbacks who made the deal, but it seems like Burnes really valued living where he has his home. Life balance made it all work out. Zac Gallen's status has to be much more available now given Arizona's payroll expectations, but the proposal I made to trade Lopez for Gallen is likely more difficult because of the Diamondbacks being less likely to be open to adding payroll, and AZ now having their ace under contract long term. I suppose Burnes could opt out after 2025, but that seems like he'd have to excel pretty hard in the desert to pull off an obvious bonus in value.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know as it's surprising Burnes got that huge contract given his history, but I sure wouldn't have been interested in giving Burnes that kind of contract. From fastball velo, to contact rates, K rates, and some other batted ball metrics, there are reasons to be concerned about how Burnes is going to age now that he's entering his age 30 season. The contract does include $60MM in deferrals so that helps a ton in terms of annual cost.

His velocity seems to be holding but his dropping K% should be a big concern. It's down 7% from 2022 and 13% since 2020. He's still getting the job done, but how long will that last if he continues to put the ball in play more and more often?

Even though you have to give up player equity to do so, I still like what the Twins were doing, trading for starters still under team control and still most likely in their peak years.

[Mike Sixel]

On 12/28/2024 at 7:46 AM, Vanimal46 said:

It has to be a very frustrating offseason for Orioles fans. 

They clearly don't care about winning all that much. But that's true of like half or more of the teams. Another reason the NFL is better. 

[Trov]

On 12/28/2024 at 11:03 AM, cmoss84 said:

Naw. Arizona flips most the bill.

Also, he's 32 and had a decent career before '24.

He had an okay career but was ready for a big drop in production due to age and never being dominate, outside his late run in 23.  There is a reason not much interest in him for his asking price and he fired his agent because he most likely turned down better deal in hopes of even better but then held out for his pillow deal that looks like a bad deal for AZ.  Maybe full spring will help him bounce back.  My guess AZ keeps him and does not send him away for either paying his deal, or not paying his deal but send prospects back too. Why pay him to play for someone else when you need as many possible starters you can get each year? 

[DJL44]

On 12/30/2024 at 9:09 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They clearly don't care about winning all that much. But that's true of like half or more of the teams. Another reason the NFL is better. 

The same NFL with 9 teams tanking for the first pick in the draft? The bad teams are worse in the NFL than they are in MLB.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The same NFL with 9 teams tanking for the first pick in the draft? The bad teams are worse in the NFL than they are in MLB.

SSS alert. The Jets have the worst record in a 162 game NFL season with a 54-108 record. The 2024 White Sox are blushing. Maybe we have been too hard on the Vikings, they are a 96 win team! 

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

SSS alert. The Jets have the worst record in a 162 game NFL season with a 54-108 record. The 2024 White Sox are blushing. Maybe we have been too hard on the Vikings, they are a 96 win team! 

Regression to the mean alert. Average MLB team records over their last 10 seasons if you want a fair comparison.

The NFL consistently has less parity in a particular season with fewer interesting teams in any given year.

[Mike Sixel]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The same NFL with 9 teams tanking for the first pick in the draft? The bad teams are worse in the NFL than they are in MLB.

They aren't trying to be every year...... Teams try to win over time, they might not succeed, but they try. Unlike at least one third of baseball.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't trying to be every year...... Teams try to win over time, they might not succeed, but they try. Unlike at least one third of baseball.

Pittsburgh is 1/30 of the teams in MLB, not 1/3.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Pittsburgh is 1/30 of the teams in MLB, not 1/3.

I'm going to assume that's sarcasm or something. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm going to assume that's sarcasm or something. 

No. Everyone has qualified for the playoffs in the last 5 seasons except the Nationals, Rockies, Angels and Pirates. The Nationals won it all in 2019. The Angels and Rockies are trying but they're just really bad at it. Pittsburgh is the only team in baseball who never tries.