Oswaldo Arcia as a Rookie of the Year Candidate?

[Vervehound]

as a long time arcia lover who called his big season last year before it happened (i love him so much i can't stand to see his bro playing shortstop in the brewers system) i'd say that he could be a lefty magglio ordonez - there are quite a few similarities in terms of offensive output/upside, prospect status, nationality, position/body type, but thankfully not hairstyle.

[TheLeviathan]

as a long time arcia lover who called his big season last year before it happened (i love him so much i can't stand to see his bro playing shortstop in the brewers system) i'd say that he could be a lefty magglio ordonez - there are quite a few similarities in terms of offensive output/upside, prospect status, nationality, position/body type, but thankfully not hairstyle.

 

Oooh, I like that comp. Even in terms of build and approach that is a very good one.

[Badsmerf]

I just hope that Buxton is leading off in front of that Murderer's Row!

I would have put Buxton in there, but it seemed a little aggressive to expect him to be the leadoff guy by then. It is certainly possible, especially if Hicks continues to struggle. Add in guys like Vargas and Harrison that could be on the verge by then and Plouffe possibly in the mix somewhere and you've yourself a nice line-up.

[clone52]

Never thought of that. I think Sano will come up mid-season next year and be too late to win it. Maybe only 2 out of 3.

 

I think they'll give Sano every opportunity to win the opening day 3B job next year. Maybe he'll start the season in Rochester, but I think he'll be up by May.

 

Buxton should start in AA next year and could possibly open the season in 2015, even though he'd be awfully young. Lets assume that he does and then consider this possible lineup in 2015 opening day.

 

Buxton-CF

Rosario-2B

Mauer-C

Sano-3B

Arcia-DH

???-RF

Parmelee(???)-1B

Hicks-LF

Florimon-SS

 

Could easily move Mauer to DH or RF and fill the C spot with Hermann or Pinto. Not sure on 1B. One possibility is resigning Morneau as a cheaper veteran if there isn't a better option.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Could easily move Mauer to DH or RF and fill the C spot with Hermann or Pinto. Not sure on 1B. One possibility is resigning Morneau as a cheaper veteran if there isn't a better option.

 

Yeesh, I don't see either Herrmann or Pinto bumping Mauer from behind the plate. Both are several shades of underwhelming.

[Chance]

Buxton-CF

Rosario-2B

Mauer-1B

Arcia-RF

Sano-3B

Pinto-C

Parmelee/Plouffe-DH

Hicks-LF

Santana/Mejia/Dozier-SS

 

It would be very young but not unreasonable. I wonder if that team could compete that year or if you would have to wait a year or 2 for development?

 

I really dont think the Twins need to sign a single bat in the offseason. If they do you are only blocking talented players from roster spots. They can trade Morneau/Willingham/Doumit for pitching prospects at this trade deadline and use filler from AAA or AA until most are ready.

 

I just want them to stick any money they would spend this offseason into pitching. Even if its just one pitcher. Isn't the future outlook of the players listed above along with a healthy long-term deal enough to draw some of the best pitching talent here?

[RedBull34]

Wouldn't Hicks in RF with Arcia in LF be a real possibility with somebody (maybe Plouffe or a FA) being the DH?

[mcrow]

I think as it stands right now Arcia has the best stats of the AL rookies so I'd say he's a legit candidate.

[ThePuck]

Wouldn't Hicks in RF with Arcia in LF be a real possibility with somebody (maybe Plouffe or a FA) being the DH?

 

I agree. I'd rather have Hicks in RF and Arcia in LF than the other way around.

[Chance]

I agree. I'd rather have Hicks in RF and Arcia in LF than the other way around.

 

 

I just figured that if parmelee can play a decent RF so could Arcia and wouldnt Hicks speed be better served in LF? Maybe I'm wrong, that was just my thought process.

[ThePuck]

I just figured that if parmelee can play a decent RF so could Arcia and wouldnt Hicks speed be better served in LF? Maybe I'm wrong, that was just my thought process.

 

Hicks is better OF, and he has a better arm, IMO. That's why, when Buxton comes up, I'd move Hicks to RF and have Arcia in LF. When we were in the dome, LF was harder to play than RF due to the lights being right in your face and more room to roam. RF had the baggy but less room to roam. Most parks, however, make it necessary to have your worst OF in LF, though Target field is very close in terms of room to roam, with LF only having a little bit more space. The arm is the biggest factor for TF.

[Boone]

Oswaldo Arcia:

April - .216/.275/.405 (.680)

May - .279/.343/.475 (.819)

June - .289/.357/.553 (.910)

 

 

The important thing here is that Arcia was sent back to Rochester in May before returning in June. As you might expect, he has been much better in his second stint than the first:

 

1st stint (April and May): .767 OPS 7.5% BB 28% K .27 BB/K

2nd stint (June) : .910 OPS 8.5% BB 21% K .4 BB/K

 

His BB and K numbers are pretty similar to what he posted last season in Ft. Myers and New Britain (roughly 9.5% BB, 20%K).

 

I wouldn't expect Arcia to post a .910 OPS the rest of the year, but it seems like something might have clicked during his demotion to Rochester. Hopefully the Twins keep Hicks in AAA "rehabbing" for a few weeks and something will click for him too.

[mcrow]

The thing with rookies is they are prone to be streaky. He's in a good stretch now so whether or not he wins AL ROY will depend on how long the next slump will be.

[frightwig]

What I like about him is that he exceeds expectations.

 

A high BABIP (.340 as of today) will help a guy do that.

 

I am still concerned about his strikeout and walk rates, and the fact that his defense has wiped out his offensive value to this point. I hope that he can improve those aspects of his game; if not, it's really going to lower his ceiling. I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?

[frightwig]

The important thing here is that Arcia was sent back to Rochester in May before returning in June. As you might expect, he has been much better in his second stint than the first....

 

Also worth noting that his June split is a sample of 47 PA. And he has a .367 BABIP since his return. He looks great right now, but at some point pitchers will make adjustments, balls in play won't fall in for him so much... and then we'll see. We might not be able to get a good read on him at all this season. We might have to wait until next season, maybe longer, for him to start settling toward his true level.

[jay]

I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?

 

I'm not so sure I've seen most people proclaiming "future All-Star", but you make some good points otherwise. How he adjusts and continues to develop will certainly determine his outcome. The Kubel comp seems very achieveable and Jason was a big part of the team for a number of years.

[Steve Lein]

well, he's leading American League Rookies (per MLB.com), in doubles, HR's (tied with Hicks), RBI's, and is second in OPS (to Jose Iglesias of all players), so yes, I'd say he's a legitimate candidate!

[Nick Nelson]

A high BABIP (.340 as of today) will help a guy do that.

 

I am still concerned about his strikeout and walk rates, and the fact that his defense has wiped out his offensive value to this point. I hope that he can improve those aspects of his game; if not, it's really going to lower his ceiling. I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?

I think you're judging his negatives a little too harshly. He's 22. Not at all uncommon (or noteworthy) for green rookies to have some plate discipline & fielding issues.

[mcrow]

I think you're judging his negatives a little too harshly. He's 22. Not at all uncommon (or noteworthy) for green rookies to have some plate discipline & fielding issues.

 

Yes, there are not many rookies that don't ahve discipline (at the plate or not) or fielding issues (many times both!).

[frightwig]

He's more than a legitimate candidate - he might be the frontrunner.

 

By fWAR, here are the top 5 rookie position players in the AL right now (min 100 PA):

 

Jose Iglesias (Red Sox): .426/.479/.529 in 121 PA, 1.4 WAR

Yan Gomes (Indians): .257/.277/.505 in 112 PA, 1.1 WAR

Brandon Barnes (Astros): .263/.316/.375 in 178 PA, 1.0 WAR

Leonys Martin (Rangers): .282/.335/.418 in 188 PA, 0.9 WAR

Nick Franklin (Mariners): .283/.359/.489 in 103 PA, 0.8 WAR

...

10) Oswaldo Arcia (Twins): .271/.338/.486 in 154 PA, 0.1 WAR

 

(I'll leave out pitchers, because there isn't a great rookie SP or hot rookie closer right now.)

 

Now, Iglesias will cool off, but could wind up with an impressive line anyway, given a start as hot as that. And playing SS/3B in Boston will not go unnoticed, either.

 

Gomes has a poor OBP, but a Catcher with some pop in his bat could get votes.

 

Barnes, as a 27 year-old outfielder without much pop... probably not a real contender.

 

Martin isn't a great masher, either, but a Centerfielder with a decent slash line for a contending team might get ROY notice this year.

 

Franklin got a relatively late start, but like Arcia he's a highly rated prospect, age 22, and has impressed out of the gate. Plus, he'll get bonus points for playing 2nd base.

 

Arcia should be in the ROY conversation if he can sustain his batting numbers, because his defense probably won't hurt his chances much, if at all, but I think there are at least 4 other candidates who look as likely at this point to take home the award.

[frightwig]

I think you're judging his negatives a little too harshly. He's 22. Not at all uncommon (or noteworthy) for green rookies to have some plate discipline & fielding issues.

 

For comparison, Nick Franklin, the Mariners 2nd base prospect, who is also 22, has a 10.7% walk rate, 15.5% strikeout rate in his initial 103 PA "at the major league level" (circle me, Bert). Arcia in 154 PA is at 7.8% and 26.0%. Actually, Arcia's strikeout rate is about the same as Aaron Hicks' 26.5%, and his walk rate is a bit worse than Hicks' 8.5%. The biggest difference between them is luck on balls in play. Arcia looks like a potential ROY with his .340 BABIP, while poor Aaron Hicks looked like he didn't belong on the team with his .217 BABIP.

 

The other day, Gleeman posted something about how Arcia's OPS stacked up against other 22 year-olds in Twins history, like Hrbek, Ortiz, Mauer, and Brunansky.

 

Did they have such problems with plate discipline at age 22?

 

Let's see...

 

Hrbek: 9.1 BB%, 13.5 K%

Ortiz: 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K%

Mauer: 11.0 BB%, 11.6 K%

Brunansky: 10.0 BB%, 15.5K%

 

Nope, not really. David Ortiz's strikeout rate was a bit high, which I'd guess was a reason Tom Kelly made him spend the next season in AAA, but it wasn't as high as Arcia's--and Ortiz even at 22 knew how to work a walk. The rest of those guys had a solid plate approach from a young age, which was a good indication of their successful careers to come. Oswaldo Arcia is not in their class. He needs to do a lot of work on his plate approach if he's going to be mentioned in that kind of company again, after this year.

[Mike Sixel]

frightwig, love the information! love the data!

 

thanks, context is always good.

[Oxtung]

To toss a few more numbers out there. Comparison to recent big name rookies:

 

Player BB% K%

O.Arcia 7.8% 26%

B.Harper 9.4% 20.1%

J.Segura 7.8% 13.9%

A.Rizzo 7.3% 16.8%

M.Machado 4.5% 18.8%

G.Stanton 8.6% 31.1%

C.Headley 8.2% 28.3%

C.Davis 6.3% 27.8%

C.Gonzalez 4.1% 25.6%

 

Out of 194 rookies debuting in the last 5 years Arcia's walk % would rank 70th as it stands today. His strike out rate would rank him 25th worst. As you can see from the names above rookie stats mean little going forward. Each of those players have turned into big producers despite their "low" walk rates or high K rates. What is more important is what he does this off season to improve.

[jay]

By fWAR, here are the top 5 rookie position players in the AL

 

Arcia should be in the ROY conversation if he can sustain his batting numbers, because his defense probably won't hurt his chances much, if at all, but I think there are at least 4 other candidates who look as likely at this point to take home the award.

 

As you mention in the very last paragraph, defense won't matter (much). The problem is, that's exactly where he's losing his WAR value. Arcia is 2nd in wOBA and 3rd in wRC+, better measures of offensive contributions (and more relevant for this discussion) than WAR.

[jay]

The biggest difference between them is luck on balls in play. Arcia looks like a potential ROY with his .340 BABIP, while poor Aaron Hicks looked like he didn't belong on the team with his .217 BABIP.

 

The other day, Gleeman posted something about how Arcia's OPS stacked up against other 22 year-olds in Twins history, like Hrbek, Ortiz, Mauer, and Brunansky.

 

Did they have such problems with plate discipline at age 22?

 

Let's see...

 

Hrbek: 9.1 BB%, 13.5 K%

Ortiz: 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K%

Mauer: 11.0 BB%, 11.6 K%

Brunansky: 10.0 BB%, 15.5K%

 

Assigning BABIP differences solely to luck is a common fallacy. While Hicks will inevitably improve on his, he wasn't making great contact and was striking out at truly obscene rates. A .340 for Arcia might be a shade high, but it isn't anywhere near unreasonable for a guy who can hit the ball and make hard contact frequently like he can. Even ZIPS projects .330 for the rest of the season.

 

As Oxtung also illustrated here, trying to compare him to players from a different era doesn't work. Of course those previous Twins players had a better K-rate, the league average has increased 30% since just 10 years ago.

 

Oswaldo needs to continue improving, but overly selective data doesn't prove much. 22 year olds that can hold their own tend to turn into solid contributors.

[Cody Christie]

If they gave away a rookie of the year award for the first half of the season, he might get the award for the American League.

[chopper0080]

Let's just appreciate the player in arcia who has flown through the Twins minor league system faster than anyone would have ever expected. He is 22 and is batting 5th in the lineup. He is making clutch hits. I don't know what his ceiling will be, but his floor looks pretty good right now.

 

Also keep in mind that he is in a division with some pretty good pitchers.