Moneyball: Recreating Willi Castro in the Aggregate

[DocBauer]

I understand the premise here, but can't agree with the outcome. I just don't see Severino as any sort of replacement for Castro other than being a switch hitter. I'm in the "hope" camp on Severino continuing to improve and being a viable 1B/DH option in the near future who MIGHT still be able to play a little 3B and OF corner. 

Curious, was he the selection because he's a switch hitter? Because he MIGHT be ready now?

While he's a RH bat, and not ready yet, Keaschall is a much better comp as a potential replacement for Castro. Simply based on how the Twins have played himself in the field, Keaschall may end up playing 1B/2B/LF/ RF. With his arm repaired, it's possible he might play some SS or 3B, but I'm not sure if he would be as good as Castro at those spots. He's probably an even better hitter with more power potential and similar speed.

There's a few other potential options further down the system that aren't proven yet, but if their bat picks up, Schobel, Ross, DeBarge, and even Culpepper. For that matter, i think Eeles might be a closer comp to Castro vs Severino.

I agree with @riverbrian that the Twins need to stay away from short side options as much as possible. A RH shouldn't ONLY be able to perform against LHP. While Castro's splits have varied, he's had success against both sides of the mound. And while his overall OPS for 2024 was only a little above league average, his bad back skewed his final numbers from where he was at mid season when he went to the All Star game. 

HOWEVER, what really sets Castro apart, IMO, is his ability to be a quality 10th man EVEN IF his OPS is only around league average. IMO, he's quality at 2B/3B/LF and solid at SS/CF. With a decent bat, some pop, and good speed/athleticism he's well worth $6.5M as a full time player at one of his best spots, even as a league average producer. (He's better than that healthy) Being able to be that 10th man increases his overall value.

I understand and appreciate the idea of trying to move on and "replace" him in a different manner due to payroll issues. I don't think Severino is a replacement, maybe a PART of doing so, if/when he's ready for the ML level. Unfortunately, I think a true replacement for him is a half season to a full season away from within the system. 

I think it would be a real shame if he has to be moved before next season considering his projected $ cost and value to the team simply due to penny pinching that might be forced.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins should absolutely sign Willi Castro and Keep him.

I have no problem with WIlli Castro. He's a decent ballplayer with multi position ability with speed that the club sorely lacks.  

With that said... here is the problem that I have with Castro. 

Willi Castro is not a problem. Willi Castro leading the team in AB's is a problem. 102 OPS+ should not lead a team in AB's and our ultra platoon system will have Willi leading the team in AB's in 2025. Our injury history with our best returning players will lead to Willi Castro leading the team in AB's in 2025. We have over inflated his value due to the Twins prioritization of keeping our platooning system intact. 

Wallner, Larnach, Julien or Kirilloff will occupy the 3 long side platoon roster spots.

Castro's splits don't justify one of the three short side spots and I don't believe we can afford to pay 6 million for a short side spot anyway. 

This means Castro will get one of 5 every day spots with a 102 OPS+. That's a problem. Utilizing Castro every day like he is Mookie Betts is a problem. 

 

100% this! To add, Castro’s value is his versatility while being league average, means there isn’t a large drop off when he fills in. He’s a competent substitute at many positions. His utility is as a Swiss Army knife.

recreating him in aggregate turns a Swiss Army knife into a whole toolbox full of kinda cruddy barely adequate tools. How utilitarian!

[dxpavelka]

Just got my "Get Off My Lawn Badge"   Old enough to remember when ZERO Twins fans would NOT be incensed at the thought of NOT bringing a guy back over $7 million.  Couldn't believe it when we let Rosario go over $8 million.  We've never really replaced his production "in the aggregate."  We'll  miss Castro's production and probably even Kepler's. (Yeah, I said it)

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Just got my "Get Off My Lawn Badge"   Old enough to remember when ZERO Twins fans would NOT be incensed at the thought of NOT bringing a guy back over $7 million.  Couldn't believe it when we let Rosario go over $8 million.  We've never really replaced his production "in the aggregate."  We'll  miss Castro's production and probably even Kepler's. (Yeah, I said it)

Christian Vazquez playing LF would have more than replaced Eddies production last year. It's real hard to get -2.0 WAR in just half a season, LOL.

[The Great Hambino]

53 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Christian Vazquez playing LF would have more than replaced Eddies production last year. It's real hard to get -2.0 WAR in just half a season, LOL.

What seems to get lost in complaints about the Twins not replicating Eddie Rosario's production after he left is that, outside of getting on a heater in the 2021 playoffs, Eddie Rosario has also failed to replicate Eddie Rosario's production since he left.

[Major League Ready]

On 10/22/2024 at 7:51 PM, Beast said:

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success?  It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades.

Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success.

Same as playing the Powerball as a retirement strategy.  Sure, someone somewhere has allegedly accomplished this.  But, far from advisable is an understatement.

If Severino were any good, they’d have found a way to use him by now.

In the past 25 seasons, Oakland has a .518 win percentage and ten 90-win seasons.  That's better than the Astros / Giants / Angels / Phillies / Rangers / Cubs and every team in the bottom two-thirds of revenue.  Much better than the Twins.  Of course, a couple of these teams have WS wins but Oakland has put a good product on the field more often than a lot of organizations with a lot more revenue.  The Padres, Cubs, and Blue Jays combined have the same number of 90-win seasons.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

What seems to get lost in complaints about the Twins not replicating Eddie Rosario's production after he left is that, outside of getting on a heater in the 2021 playoffs, Eddie Rosario has also failed to replicate Eddie Rosario's production since he left.

To be fair Rosario had a decent season in 2023 with 21 home runs and 74 rbi, while batting .255 but then his K rate did soar.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

What seems to get lost in complaints about the Twins not replicating Eddie Rosario's production after he left is that, outside of getting on a heater in the 2021 playoffs, Eddie Rosario has also failed to replicate Eddie Rosario's production since he left.

Whens the last time the Twins were on a heater in the playoffs?

 

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Whens the last time the Twins were on a heater in the playoffs?

 

Certainly not from 2017-2020 when Rosario's 5-for-23 with 6 strikeouts powered the Twins to an 0-6 postseason record

[dxpavelka]

We've made the post-season ONCE since he left.  But, sure, it's worked out well.

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Certainly not from 2017-2020 when Rosario's 5-for-23 with 6 strikeouts powered the Twins to an 0-6 postseason record

His career post-season OPS is .865.  We've made the post-season ONCE in four seasons since he left.  We've faded epically down the stretch on more than one occasion.  Neither of the former 1st round draft picks whose imminent rise to stardom was a big part of the reason we felt compelled to not pay him has managed to put together a single season with an OPS of .800.  They have combined to average 68 games played per season But, sure, things have worked out well.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

His career post-season OPS is .865.  We've made the post-season ONCE in four seasons since he left.  We've faded epically down the stretch on more than one occasion.  Neither of the former 1st round draft picks whose imminent rise to stardom was a big part of the reason we felt compelled to not pay him has managed to put together a single season with an OPS of .800.  They have combined to average 68 games played per season But, sure, things have worked out well.

Oh boy.

We're talking about a player who over the last 4 years:

- Slashed .231/.278/.396/.674 while playing mediocre corner outfield defense

- Accumulated negative WAR

- Was given up on by three different franchises (Cleveland even had to kick in cash for the right to be the ones to release the empty husk of Pablo Sandoval)

- Was getting paid as much as $9MM/year for these accomplishments

- Finished 2024 playing in the minors

If you're arguing that this was the missing link between the Twins and playoff success ... I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree.  That his replacements have stunk does not change the fact that he has also stunk in a much more expensive fashion.

 

 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Oh boy.

We're talking about a player who over the last 4 years:

- Slashed .231/.278/.396/.674 while playing mediocre corner outfield defense

- Accumulated negative WAR

- Was given up on by three different franchises (Cleveland even had to kick in cash for the right to be the ones to release the empty husk of Pablo Sandoval)

- Was getting paid as much as $9MM/year for these accomplishments

- Finished 2024 playing in the minors

If you're arguing that this was the missing link between the Twins and playoff success ... I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree.  That his replacements have stunk does not change the fact that he has also stunk in a much more expensive fashion.

 

 

Now convince me that the guys the Twins have run out to left field the last four years have been better OR contributed to playoff success.  Or even getting to the playoffs.  And YES he WAS instrumental in a World Championship run.

[Fred]

I have never thought of Severino as a utility man, but, now that you bring it up, I guess he could play equally poorly at any position. That's why I think of him at 1st. Many clubs try to hide a poor fielder with a big bat there. I mean Severino's value is his bat. I would like to see him get a shot, because I doubt they will match what Santana gets offered. If you want a true utility man, go with Helman or Eeles (unless you're gonna insist on a switch hitter). Eeles won't be playing any CF for you, but I think the Twins could use a little of his "Charley Hustle" style.