Kala'i Rosario, Twins Pitchers Continue Excellence in Arizona Fall League Week 2

[Steve Lein]

The second week of the Arizona Fall League wasn’t as loud as the first one for Minnesota Twins' hitting prospects, but their pitchers continue to keep the volume from opposing teams down as well.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Kala'i Rosario)

Game Results:
Tuesday, 10/15 | Salt River 4, Surprise 6
Wednesday, 10/16 | Salt River 1, Scottsdale 3
Thursday, 10/17 | Mesa 5, Salt River 9
Friday, 10/18 | Peoria 4, Salt River 14
Saturday, 10/19 | Salt River 0, Glendale 1 (7 innings)
Sundary, 10/20 | Salt River 4, Scottsdale 2

The Salt River Rafters finished the week 3-3, and are now 6-5 overall, one game behind the leader in the Arizona Fall League standings. While there wasn’t as much offense this week for Salt River, there still were some big outputs on the scoreboards. When it comes to Twins prospects, a slugger kept a bit of a hot hand, but there were also solid pitching results. In Minnesota farmhands' 13 innings pitched on the week, they allowed just three earned runs; teams on the circuit are averaging six and a half runs per game.

OF Kala’i Rosario
Week: 6-for-19, 3 R, 3B, 3 RBI, BB, 8 K (5 games)
Overall: .290/.333/.548
Rosario didn’t launch any more home runs in week 2, but he stayed hot to start the week, racking up six hits in his first three games. He was again plugged into the heart of the Salt River lineup, and played right field in three games, while DH-ing in the other two.

His first game of the week came on Wednesday, and with his team down 3-0 in the eighth, Rosario delivered a two-out RBI triple to score their lone run of the game.

In Thursday’s win over Mesa, Rosario’s sacrifice fly in the bottom of the first put the Rafters in front 2-1. He added a single in the third inning and drew a walk in the fifth, coming around to score a run later that made it 5-4 Salt River.

In the blowout of Peoria on Friday, Rosario finished 3-for-5 with a pair of runs scored. His single in the bottom of the sixth drove in a run to make it 9-4 Salt River. He did cool off in his final two games, going 0-for-7 with 3 K’s and putting an end to his modest four-game hitting streak, but still batted a solid .316 in his 20 plate appearances on the week.

IF Ben Ross
Week: 2-for-15, 2 R, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K (5 games)
Overall: .200/.366/.367
Ross wasn’t able to match his output from Week 1, but still got on base at a decent clip in his five games. He played shortstop in four of those and third base in the other, batting primarily in the middle of the Rafters lineup.

He was 0-for-7 in his first two games of the week, drawing one walk while striking out twice. He picked up his first hit in Thursday’s win over Mesa, driving in Rosario with the go-ahead run on a single in the fifth inning. On Friday, he finished 0-for-2, but drew a pair of walks and came around to score both times.

In Saturday’s 1-0 loss against Glendale (in which both teams had just four hits), Ross was responsible for one of those from the Rafters. His single in the fourth inning moved a runner into scoring position, but they weren’t able to put one on the scoreboard.

IF Danny De Andrade
Week: Did not play.
De Andrade has yet to get on the field for the Salt River Rafters. The infielder hit .243/.333/.359 in 29 games with the Cedar Rapids Kernels before injuring his ankle and spending the rest of the season on the injured list.

RHP Devin Kirby
Week: 3 IP, 1 H, 2 BB (1 appearance)
Overall: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .071 BAA, 4 BB, 2 K (5 IP)
The knuckleballer ate three innings in Friday's domination of the Peoria Javelinas. He came out of the bullpen to start the sixth with the score 8-4 Rafters and froze Peoria there. He walked the first batter he faced, as he couldn’t get a knuckler to land in the zone, but induced a double-play ball to erase them. He also gave up his first hit in AFL play, but retired six in a row before his second walk of the outing in the eighth. He faced 11 hitters, and all 38 of his pitches were tracked as knucklers, with 20 of them going for strikes (53%). In reality, once again, there were seven pitches that clearly were either a fastball or a traditional breaking ball from him, but he's stumping Statcast.

RHP Jack Noble
Week: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, BB, 4 K (2 appearances)
Overall: 1-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .267 BAA, 2 BB, 6 K (5 IP)
Noble made appearances in Wednesday’s loss to Scottsdale and Saturday’s loss to Glendale, coming in as the first reliever of the game for the Rafters in both contests. 

Against the Scorpions, this was in the fourth inning, with the game still scoreless. He gave up a leadoff single, but coaxed a double-play ball and struck out the last one to face the minimum.

On Saturday, he went multiple innings versus the Desert Dogs, pitching the third and fourth frames. In the third, he gave up a single, but bookended it with strikeouts and they caught the runner stealing so he again faced just three hitters. In the fourth, a two-out walk was all Glendale would get, and he ended this appearance with his third strikeout.

LHP Kade Bragg
Week: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 2 K (2 appearances, with 1 start)
Overall: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .133 BAA, 4 BB, 3 K (4 IP)
The left-hander pitched out of the bullpen in the Rafters first game of the week on Tuesday, then made the start in their last one on Sunday evening.

In the game against the Surprise Saguaros early in the week, Bragg was charged with the loss. He allowed a pair of doubles, and his defense committed two errors leading to his three runs allowed. His fastball did touch 94.4 miles per hour, so there's something there with him, but he needs to be around the zone with quality strikes more consistently.

In his start against the Scottsdale Scorpions, Bragg delivered a clean first inning, including a pair of strikeouts. Back out for the second after his team had taken a 1-0 lead, he had a bit of trouble finding the strike zone and ended up walking the bases loaded. Fortunately, he got a lineout to keep the Scorpions off the scoreboard. Because of those free passes, Bragg ran up his pitch count to 42 in the outing, with just 20 of them going for strikes (48%).

RHP Jacob King
Week: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, K (1 appearance)
Overall: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, .000 BAA, 0 BB, 1 K (1 2/3 IP)
Like in week 1, King was only called upon to make one appearance in the Rafters six games, and it came in their first one on Tuesday.

He followed Bragg after Salt River had fallen behind 5-2, pitching a one-two-three sixth inning. He needed just 10 pitches and struck out one against the fifth, sixth, and seventh hitters in the Saguaros lineup. His fastball sat in the low 90s, but it did have decent carry, and his slider has real depth relative to it. A bit too old and too filled-out to project to add velocity, King needs to defy the odds to mature into a big-league arm, but his pitch shapes are intriguing.

RHP Liam Rocha
Week: 3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, BB, 2 K (2 appearances)
Overall: 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .318 BAA, 2 BB, 5 K (5 IP)
Rocha took the mound in Thursday’s win over the Solar Sox, and in Sunday’s win over the Scorpions.

Against Mesa, he came on to begin the sixth inning with the Rafters up 5-4, after Ross had driven in Rosario in the bottom of the fifth. A leadoff walk and a single put the tying run in scoring position before he was able to get a double-play ball that stunted some of the threat, but still left a runner on third base. He gave up an RBI single to the next hitter and was charged with a blown save before getting out of the inning with a strikeout. Rocha has a very vertical four-pitch mix, with an interesting ability to tunnel those offerings off one another from his three-quarter slot. Once again, the question is whether he can find another few ticks of velocity on a fastball that currently sits just north of 90 miles per hour.

On Sunday night, the righty was brought into the game to start the sixth again, this time with his team down by one. He gave up a leadoff single but retired the next three Scorpions, including one strikeout, to keep the Rafters in striking distance. Back out for the seventh, an error forced him to face a few more hitters than he would have liked, but kept Scottsdale off the scoreboard. In the top of the eighth the Rafters went up 4-2, and gave Rocha the win in his ledger.

Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the prospects playing in the AFL this week!

View full article

[jmlease1]

Too bad DeAndrade hasn't been able to get on the field. Was hoping he could get some innings to make up for the time he's missed. I like his potential as a fielder, but I do have some concerns about his bat. Shame he's not getting the ABs. (and it sucks having good prospects fighting injuries)

Great to see Rosario doing well; he seems recovered fully from his injury and is still hammering the ball. Nice to see him making good contact. It'll be interesting to see where the Twins start him next season: AA or AAA? Either way, I expect to see him in Saint Paul fairly quickly and it's good to see a RH corner OF bat developing. Still has some questions, but boy the ball explodes off his bat!

[LambchoP]

Rosario will be an interesting story to watch this year. With Larnach and Wallner being our corner OF and both hitting left handed, Rosario could be the perfect RH OF to platoon or take on a starting role of Larnach fails to replicate last year's success. Rosario will need time in AAA of course, a long with Emmanuel Rodriguez, but the future looks bright for our outfield,and that's not even including Jenkins down the line.

[saviking]

17 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Rosario will be an interesting story to watch this year. With Larnach and Wallner being our corner OF and both hitting left handed, Rosario could be the perfect RH OF to platoon or take on a starting role of Larnach fails to replicate last year's success. Rosario will need time in AAA of course, a long with Emmanuel Rodriguez, but the future looks bright for our outfield,and that's not even including Jenkins down the line.

Kala'i is the only one of the group I would have ever thought woukd wind up in Arizona this year ..  

[bean5302]

Kala'i Rosario is an interesting prospect in that there's some stuff to like, but the plate discipline projects as unplayable. I'm not sure what the Twins are looking for in Rosario in the AFL as I suspect he'll return to AA next year, but an 8 K to 1 BB ratio is surely not it.

[dougd]

There is a good overview of the Twins players in the AFL this year today at the MLB/AFL website.

[Steve Lein]

3 hours ago, dougd said:

There is a good overview of the Twins players in the AFL this year today at the MLB/AFL website.

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-arizona-fall-league-overview-2024?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kala'i Rosario is an interesting prospect in that there's some stuff to like, but the plate discipline projects as unplayable. I'm not sure what the Twins are looking for in Rosario in the AFL as I suspect he'll return to AA next year, but an 8 K to 1 BB ratio is surely not it.

Probably not, but they'll forgive it in a small sample when he's hitting .300 with a SLG% over .500, I think. If he's showing he can make contact and do damage when he swings and otherwise shows good control of the zone, they're less likely to panic over the K/BB ratio. Historically, his challenge has been more around making enough contact rather than plate discipline.

[Guest]

I've been believing in Pandora's box last evil, HOPE, for too long. Sano was hope.. Rosario was hope. Buxton was hope. Correa was hope. Lewis was hope. I'm exhausted on hope. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Probably not, but they'll forgive it in a small sample when he's hitting .300 with a SLG% over .500, I think. If he's showing he can make contact and do damage when he swings and otherwise shows good control of the zone, they're less likely to panic over the K/BB ratio. Historically, his challenge has been more around making enough contact rather than plate discipline.

The point is a 5% BB rate and a 40% K rate against mostly low minors pitchers doesn't work, and it's not an improvement over his 10.7% BB vs. 30.4% K rate at AA this year. Honestly, I'd be concerned if Rosario wasn't doing damage in the AFL since the competition level is certainly lower than AA where he spent almost his entire season.

Plate discipline vs. more contact is pretty much potAto, poTaTo, but I'd still lean towards calling it a plate discipline issue. It's the same issue Matt Wallner had in A+ ball with a 9.5% BB, and 33.3% K rate when he was essentially put on notice that he had no future in the game without learning to take walks despite Wallner "doing damage." Meanwhile a "make more contact" issue is Emmanuel Rodriguez with his high K rate but even more absurd walk rate.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Verified Member said:

I've been believing in Pandora's box last evil, HOPE, for too long. Sano was hope.. Rosario was hope. Buxton was hope. Correa was hope. Lewis was hope. I'm exhausted on hope. 

I hope you don't lose your sense of humor or ability to be entertained.

[Blyleven2011]

Thanks for the weekly report , great to have some news in twins territory that is a positive ....

[Doctor Wu]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Thanks for the weekly report , great to have some news in twins territory that is a positive ....

Agreed, Very much appreciate these articles. Keep 'em coming!

[jmlease1]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The point is a 5% BB rate and a 40% K rate against mostly low minors pitchers doesn't work, and it's not an improvement over his 10.7% BB vs. 30.4% K rate at AA this year. Honestly, I'd be concerned if Rosario wasn't doing damage in the AFL since the competition level is certainly lower than AA where he spent almost his entire season.

Plate discipline vs. more contact is pretty much potAto, poTaTo, but I'd still lean towards calling it a plate discipline issue. It's the same issue Matt Wallner had in A+ ball with a 9.5% BB, and 33.3% K rate when he was essentially put on notice that he had no future in the game without learning to take walks despite Wallner "doing damage." Meanwhile a "make more contact" issue is Emmanuel Rodriguez with his high K rate but even more absurd walk rate.

But it's 36 PAs. The sample is just too small to get too hung up on BB% or K% rates. 1 game where a player takes 2-3 walks changes things too much. You're correct that Wallner didn't get it figured out in A-ball; his breakout as a hitter was in AA, but keep in mind he was nearly 3 years older than Rosario when he first hit AA. And I'd love to know more about how Wallner was put on notice that he had no future in the game at any part of his career to date?

Rosario is in the AFL to get some swings in and make sure that he's got his mechanic locked in since he missed so much time during the regular season. He's showing an improved performance in the AFL over his first stint there. He's not in any danger of the club giving up on him.

That's where Ben Ross is. He's got to show he can hit, because so far he hasn't been able to do it at AA. He can field well enough, but he's not so outstanding out there that he can make it as a no-hit, all-glove guy. And the big pile of walks he's taking in the AFL aren't actually helping his case much, because he's showing little power and not hitting.

 

[2wins87]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The point is a 5% BB rate and a 40% K rate against mostly low minors pitchers doesn't work, and it's not an improvement over his 10.7% BB vs. 30.4% K rate at AA this year. Honestly, I'd be concerned if Rosario wasn't doing damage in the AFL since the competition level is certainly lower than AA where he spent almost his entire season.

Plate discipline vs. more contact is pretty much potAto, poTaTo, but I'd still lean towards calling it a plate discipline issue. It's the same issue Matt Wallner had in A+ ball with a 9.5% BB, and 33.3% K rate when he was essentially put on notice that he had no future in the game without learning to take walks despite Wallner "doing damage." Meanwhile a "make more contact" issue is Emmanuel Rodriguez with his high K rate but even more absurd walk rate.

Wallner improved his plate discipline moving to AA but did so as a 24-year old.  Rosario just turned 22 during the last season.  Wallner had probably seen thousands more pitches than Rosario has by that stage in his career.

Rosario has done quite well while being pushed up the system steadily, and coming in having not faced particularly high level competition in Hawaii.  The walk rate dipped against better pitchers this year, but at 14% last year in A+ and 10% this year in AA that's hardly disastrous.  Some guys stall out in the upper minors but Rosario still has plenty of time to refine his approach.

He'll need to keep improving the plate discipline, but the other issue is that his swing can sometimes generate too much line-drive and ground ball contact.  His exit velocities are in the same range as Wallner and Rodriguez, so he's an example where increasing launch angle would definitely actually be helpful.

I don't know if he'll put it all together, but I think his potential has tended to be underrated.

[bean5302]

Rosario is striking out a lot and not walking enough to compensate against low minors pitchers, certainly lower caliber than what he played against all year. He wouldn't be in the AFL if the Twins didn't need him to show more, and I'm not sure what else they could be needing for him to show against lesser competition. This is his 4th professional season. BB and K rates stabilize pretty quick.

Wallner is an example of plate discipline issues and how they have to be handled. I wasn't looking for a comp for Rosario since the two players have almost nothing in common.

Kala'i Rosario is like a borderline top 20ish top 30ish prospect for a reason. It's great to see him hitting well, but I'd like to see him improve on the part of his game that will prevent him from hitting well enough to make MLB, much less succeed there.