Twins Daily Debate: Why the Houston Astros are the Better Wild Card Opponent for Twins

[Eric Blonigen]

As of Tuesday morning, the Twins are outsiders looking in at a playoff berth, and will need to up their current level of play if they hope for a Wild Card spot. That said, the Royals are not playing well either, and the Tigers have recently been playing better than their true talent level. So, despite being a game back, the postseason is still well within reach. Should the Twins be playing October baseball, their best path to a deep run is through Houston. Let’s dig into why.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

[Ed. note: In a spasm of optimism, we're kicking off Tuesday with a pair of pieces examining the two most likely candidates to host the Twins in a Wild Card series, should they get there. Check back later this morning to read Matthew Taylor's perspective on why the Orioles would be the more suitable matchup. Here's Eric on why he believes it's Houston.]

Look, there’s no guarantee the Twins make the playoffs. The last five weeks have been frustrating to watch. However, it's still a coin toss, and it makes sense to evaluate their competition. As of now, the likely opponent will either be the Orioles or the Astros. While the Orioles haven’t been playing great baseball recently, either (three straight losing months!), they are a fundamentally better team than the Astros. Should the Twins line up against Houston for a three-game series, they actually stack up well, based on results, health, and pitching matchups. We will look at each individually.

Results
The Twins have done well against the Astros this year, winning four of six tilts while outscoring them 36-27. In the 2023 regular season, the Twins again won four of six, before losing three of four in the ALDS. Including the playoffs, that's a 9-7 record over the past two seasons. Using that small sample size, the Twins have put up a .788 OPS in the regular season, compared to a .689 OPS for the Astros. The Twins had some stinkers in the ALDS last season, but the Astros are not world-beaters offensively, with Kyle Tucker still feeling his way back in the wake of a long absence from the lineup.

This season, looking at overall results, even with the Twins' recent offensive collapse, the Astros have a team OPS just .013 better than the Twins, at .743. If you look at Astros Twitter, you will see posts about a lack of clutch hitting that make Twins Twitter look happy by comparison. Advantage: it’s close, but if even a couple Twins hitters start pulling the ball again, I would give the advantage to the Twins.

Health
While the Twins are not a picture of health, they are not missing marquee players, aside from Joe Ryan and Brock Stewart. They do have a number of players--like Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton--who are banged up, but all are available.

The Astros, on the other hand, have lost a number of players for the season, and others may be joining them. Yordan Alvarez is getting imaging on his knee. Outfielder Ben Gamel fractured his fibula last week and will likely be out for the postseason. Outfielder Chas McCormick also hit the IL with a broken hand last week. Reliever Tayler Scott hit the IL on Saturday with a thoracic spine injury. He’s pitched the third-most innings of any Astros reliever and has put up great results for them, with a 2.33 ERA over 68 innings. Justin Verlander is just back from a two-month stint on the IL and hasn’t performed well, to the point where even he doesn’t think he’s going to be a playoff starter this season.

Relievers Penn Murfee, Kendall Graveman, and Oliver Ortega are all on the 60-day IL and are done for the season, as are starters JP France, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers, Cristian Javier, and José Urquidy. This is not the deep, fearsome pitching staff you remember from Houston's several recent runs deep into the playoffs. All of that leaves them a bit short of starting pitching and outfielders. Advantage: Twins.

Pitchers
The Astros' likely three starters in a best-of-three Wild Card Series would be Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Hunter Brown. How have they fared against the Twins over the past two seasons? Well, sort of mediocre. Their ace, Valdez, has pitched to a 5.34 ERA with a 9:5 strikeout to walk ratio across 11 1/3 innings. Brown has been equally bad, throwing 25 2/3 innings of 5.35 ERA ball with a 30:7 strikeout to walk ratio against Minnesota. Kikuchi has been better, with a 3.41 ERA and a 7:2 strikeout to walk throughout 14 2/3 innings, but that's not many missed bats.

Twins hitters have done well against two of their three likely pitching opponents. How have the Twins’ likely starting pitchers performed against the Astros?

Pablo López had his shutdown outing against the Astros in Game 2 of the ALDS, and is sitting on 19 strikeouts and four walks across 19 innings of 3.68 ERA ball against them since the start of last year. Bailey Ober’s only appearances against the Astros came in relief during the ALDS, a role Ober isn’t particularly suited to. His results were terrible, with a 12.46 ERA and four homers allowed across 13 outs. Since Ober has taken a step forward this season, however, we can't take much from that. Neither David Festa nor Simeon Woods Richardson, the likely options for a third starter, have faced the Astros in their young careers. This would give them a bit of a leg up, as the Astros would have to rely on reports and video rather than internal comfortability. Based on these factors, the Twins would likely have an edge on the pitching side of things. Advantage: Twins, as long as Ober isn't needed to save the season Sunday.

Of course, none of this matters if the Twins don't start hitting over the final handful of games, and if their bullpen can’t protect a lead. Baseball is about hope, so here’s hoping the team can find their midseason form. If they can, and if they match up against the Astros, they have a real chance. Then, all they would have to do is (gulp) beat the Guardians.

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[Schmoeman5]

Right now, any talk about which team the Twins best match up against is like the 673 articles leading up to the trade deadline. When they get to the bridge, they can cross it. Till then. It's nose to the grindstone.

[terrydactyls]

Tru dat!!

[LambchoP]

This kind of optimism and speculation is great, but the way we've played the last month, it's really not going to matter.

[bean5302]

The Astros are a death knell for the Twins with their insurmountable rotation.
Since 8/1 (QS2 = 5.0+ IP, under 4.00 ERA)
Framber Valdez = 1.33 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.68 xFIP, 88% QS2
Hunter Brown = 2.17 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 89% QS2
Yusei Kikuchi = 3.00 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 2.78 xFIP, 78% QS2

All three of those pitchers are better than anybody in the Twins' rotation. Going up against a Twins' lineup which has struggled to score?
 

[Karbo]

Looks like the Tigers are the Cinderella team this year.

[Western SD Fan]

I hate to critique your article, but SWR has faced the Astros this season.

 

[Aerodeliria]

Oh, I thought this was a RandBall's post....ooops!!