A Postmortem on the Twins Trade Deadline

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Considering that in most years, the weakest division winners are usually worse than the teams that are 3rd and 4th in the top divisions, you'd actually be keeping the better teams out of the playoffs.

I don't care. They can have some separate NIT-type tournament. If they wanted to be in the playoffs they should have won their division. Harsh? Sure, but they weren't the best team in their division so why should they have to right to play for the designation of best team in the league? 

Playoffs should mean something, and not just be an avenue for more revenue for our billionaire overlords. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I honestly stopped looking at the schedule in an attempt to figure out who has the best chances. 

Been watching Septembers for decades and I see absolutely no evidence that wishing for certain matchups matters at all. Baseball has never been that cut and dried. 

It's September 20th. (My birthday today BTW). Everything that has happened from September 19th and prior  no longer matters. The Tigers going 26-10 since August 11th has no effect on what will happen today and tomorrow. The Twins going 10-20 since August 18th does not effect what will happen today and tomorrow. 

Today is a new day. The Past is the Past.

The next 9 games will decide this thing and then the buzzer goes off. 

Every year... I've asked for baseball to matter in September. Boy Oh Boy... Does it matter this year. 😎

Happy Birthday Brian of River!

[NYCTK]

33 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

However, the Twins just played 4 games against Cleveland. Every game was inches apart. Runs were 13 a piece for the 4 game series. 

Yeah, true...

Now do the previous 26 games. 

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I understand that an L is an L. 

However, the Twins just played 4 games against Cleveland. Every game was inches apart. Runs were 13 a piece for the 4 game series. 

Again... I understand that an L is an L. The games didn't turn out the way we wanted or needed but it's not like the Twins were not inches from any of those games. 

These were extremely tense nail biting games where nobody in Minnesota or Ohio felt comfortable for 38 innings and you are saying that they are going to get swept by the Astros anyway. A team that has 3 more wins than the Twins have over 153 games out of 162. 

 

 

 

 

Personally I never felt like the Twins were going to win any of those games. Even though they led or were tied for most of the games they lost. I never felt good about the game they WON until it was over. 

It felt, to me anyway, like the Twins were always hanging on for dear life, while Cleveland was always one hitter away from a rally. Like it was written in stone Rocco would find a way to create an issue. Like their bullpen had an endless supply of good options, while we were hoping all of our DFA claims were going to hold up for multiple innings. Like when an RBI hit was needed, I knew which team would get it.

I don't think that series was actually all that close.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Yeah, true...

Now do the previous 26 games. 

I will not... I am fully aware what happened in those 26 games. Those games are history. They got us where we are right now but today they don't matter anymore.  

Sequencing (hot and cold streaks) are going to happen in a 162 game schedule. Controlling when they happen is impossible. 

The Astros started the season 7-19. Put a fork in them. Then won 5 of their next 6 games. Then dropped their next 4 games to go 12 and 24. They played slightly over .500 ball before rolling 7 wins in a row to reach .500 for the first time on June 26th and continued on to a 13-2 stretch before the Twins took two games in a row from them. 

When October 30th rolls around. None of those streaks for the Astros matter. Hot or Cold they are history. They are 0-0 and looking at the Twins, Tigers, Royals or Mariners in the opposing dugout at Minute Maid Park. You won't get me to bet one red cent on who is going to win that game or the next one. 

Right now the Twins are 0-0 with 9 games to go. So are the Tigers.  

[Mike Sixel]

38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I don't care. They can have some separate NIT-type tournament. If they wanted to be in the playoffs they should have won their division. Harsh? Sure, but they weren't the best team in their division so why should they have to right to play for the designation of best team in the league? 

Playoffs should mean something, and not just be an avenue for more revenue for our billionaire overlords. 

The playoffs are terrible at telling us who the best team was all year. Truly awful. It's a lot about health, and luck. It's a separate season, that everyone should play in, with massive advantage to the best regular season records. It's all entertainment, and I want more, not less. 

[FargoFanMan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I understand that an L is an L. 

However, the Twins just played 4 games against Cleveland. Every game was inches apart. Runs were 13 a piece for the 4 game series. 

Again... I understand that an L is an L. The games didn't turn out the way we wanted or needed but it's not like the Twins were not inches from any of those games. 

These were extremely tense nail biting games where nobody in Minnesota or Ohio felt comfortable for 38 innings and you are saying that they are going to get swept by the Astros anyway. A team that has 3 more wins than the Twins have over 153 games out of 162. 

 

 

 

 

I agree. They were in contention most games. The fact that the overworked bullpen couldn’t lock down a couple of those shows how vulnerable the bullpen is. Those are the kinds of games they’ll be expected to close out in the postseason. If everyone is gassed out now how in the world can they be expected to close out a series worth of those games let alone 4 series’ worth of games? Even if they limp into the playoffs without a major change in how this team is playing they’re DOA come the wild card series.

[FargoFanMan]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

AJ Puk has now appeared in 25 games for Arizona with a 0.39 ERA.

23 IP, 4 BB, 36 Ks.

He went pretty cheap. Minimal salary. Controlled through 2026.

Was exactly, EXACTLY the guy they needed.

Simply zero reason he shouldn't have been a Twin.

And SO easy to see ahead of time.

Get that done and find a way to get Blake Snell and we'd likely be in 1st place in the ALC.

 

Exactly!!!!

[Mike Sixel]

Sure would have been nice to have a healthy Stewart right now

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The playoffs are terrible at telling us who the best team was all year. Truly awful. It's a lot about health, and luck. It's a separate season, that everyone should play in, with massive advantage to the best regular season records. It's all entertainment, and I want more, not less. 

I agree with you that it's not the best way to find the best team but. But this is again why I don't want clearly objectively worse teams in there. Why other than money do we want to watch worse teams play more games? 

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The playoffs are terrible at telling us who the best team was all year. Truly awful. It's a lot about health, and luck. It's a separate season, that everyone should play in, with massive advantage to the best regular season records. It's all entertainment, and I want more, not less. 

There are 162 games readily available to watch for 6 months of the year. Unless you're telling me you're regularly watching the Diamondbacks, I don't believe you that you want more entertainment, not less. 

I want better entertainment. Not worse. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, NYCTK said:

I agree with you that it's not the best way to find the best team but. But this is again why I don't want clearly objectively worse teams in there. Why other than money do we want to watch worse teams play more games? 

Drama to see who advances. More baseball. I'm not convinced that taking division winners does anything most years, other than only one east coast team making it. 

It's all about hope in more cities. Other than Denver and Chicago, of course

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure would have been nice to have a healthy Stewart right now

Wouldn't it be nice to have a healthy Stewart ever (not disagreeing with you) but the guys has been hurt most of the last two years.

[USAFChief]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

Wouldn't it be nice to have a healthy Stewart ever (not disagreeing with you) but the guys has been hurt most of the last two years.

The guy has never been healthy. His season high is 34 innings, and that was 2017. He was out of organized baseball for 2 years. 2023 was a complete outlier performance wise.

He's a fine gamble, not someone a FO should be counting on.

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

There are 162 games readily available to watch for 6 months of the year. Unless you're telling me you're regularly watching the Diamondbacks, I don't believe you that you want more entertainment, not less. 

I want better entertainment. Not worse. 

Well don't watch then.

I'll be watching post season baseball. Hopefully the Twins, but either way.

And BTW whoever wins the WS will feel just as great a sense of accomplishment as any team did when only 2 teams made the post season. 

I suspect their fans will be just as happy, too. At least the vast majority. 

 

[Riverbrian]

49 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Personally I never felt like the Twins were going to win any of those games. Even though they led or were tied for most of the games they lost. I never felt good about the game they WON until it was over. 

It felt, to me anyway, like the Twins were always hanging on for dear life, while Cleveland was always one hitter away from a rally. Like it was written in stone Rocco would find a way to create an issue. Like their bullpen had an endless supply of good options, while we were hoping all of our DFA claims were going to hold up for multiple innings. Like when an RBI hit was needed, I knew which team would get it.

I don't think that series was actually all that close.

I've seen enough comebacks and I've seen enough rallies to never feel good or bad in September or June. I'm just plain nerves regardless knowing each pitch and each AB matters. 

However, what you are describing is how you are feeling because I never allowed my nerves to feel like the Twins had no chance. Although I admit not feeling confident whenever Clase hit the rubber. 

What you are saying sounds like the typical Lions fan I was hanging out with in Michigan back in 2015. 

I was at a party on a Thursday night in Grand Rapids. I was surrounded by Lions Fans. The Lions were playing the Packers and everybody was negative before the game began and I was just laughing and shaking my head at them wondering how they get up in the morning. 

It was sometime in the 3rd quarter. The Lions were up 20-0 and all the Lions Fans were saying "****ing Lions" here we go again every time they gained only two yards on the ground despite being up by 20. 

Then the Packers started to come back. The groaning got worse as they got closer.

It's late in the 4th quarter... Detroit is up 23-14. They are still convinced they are going to lose. 

Green Bay scores to make it 23-21 around the two minute mark and doesn't onside. Everyone is pissed.

The Lions ran a bunch of clock off before punting. Green Bay had the ball on maybe the 20 yard line and about 20 seconds left. The first passes are incomplete. On third and ten from the 20... THEY ARE STILL CONVINCED THAT THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE. Finally... I say something "I don't get this at all. Green Bay has no timeouts... No Time and 80 yards to cover. The Odds are probably 99.9% that you are going to win this game and you are already acting like you are going to lose". They responded with... Brian... You are not from Michigan... It's been this way forever. We are going to lose". 

3rd and Ten maybe 80 yards from the goal line. Rodgers completes a pass and they lateral it around backwards... about the same distance of the completed pass. Maybe 5 seconds left when Detroit gets hit with a penalty... Facemask? maybe. The Lions fans look at me and say... "See... Told Ya... This is what it's like to be Lions Fan". And I'm like... "The Packers can only Hail Mary this thing". 

Which is exactly what the Packers did!!!

The moral to this story

Chief... For Gods sake... Quit acting like a Lions Fan!!! 

[rv78]

4 hours ago, Maybebaby said:

Maybe the Twins should do what the Vikings did when moving on from Cousins/Hunter whom were tying up all the $$$.  How do they do the same with Buck/Corea?  Unloading those 2 who aren't making a big enough difference might get us several players who do move the needle??????  What the hey?

Good luck getting that to happen. Both have no trade clauses. If they don't produce for the Twins enough to make a difference, why would any other team want them? keep in mind Correa gets a $4M raise next year. This FO is going to have to live with those 2 over-paid super-duds for the next 4 years. At least Pablo Lopez's contract raise to $22 million will be off-set by the departure of Kepler and Santana. 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've seen enough comebacks and I've seen enough rallies to never feel good or bad in September or June. I'm just plain nerves regardless knowing each pitch and each AB matters. 

However, what you are describing is how you are feeling because I never allowed my nerves to feel like the Twins had no chance. Although I admit not feeling confident whenever Clase hit the rubber. 

What you are saying sounds like the typical Lions fan I was hanging out with in Michigan back in 2015. 

I was at a party on a Thursday night in Grand Rapids. I was surrounded by Lions Fans. The Lions were playing the Packers and everybody was negative before the game began and I was just laughing and shaking my head at them wondering how they get up in the morning. 

It was sometime in the 3rd quarter. The Lions were up 20-0 and all the Lions Fans were saying "****ing Lions" here we go again every time they gained only two yards on the ground despite being up by 20. 

Then the Packers started to come back. The groaning got worse as they got closer.

It's late in the 4th quarter... Detroit is up 23-14. They are still convinced they are going to lose. 

Green Bay scores to make it 23-21 around the two minute mark and doesn't onside. Everyone is pissed.

The Lions ran a bunch of clock off before punting. Green Bay had the ball on maybe the 20 yard line and about 20 seconds left. The first passes are incomplete. On third and ten from the 20... THEY ARE STILL CONVINCED THAT THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE. Finally... I say something "I don't get this at all. You have the ball... Green Bay has no timeouts... The Odds are probably 99.9% that you are going to win this game and you are already acting like you are going to lose". They responded with... Brian... You are not from Michigan... It's been this way forever. We are going to lose". 

3rd and Ten maybe 80 yards from the goal line. Rodgers completes a pass and they lateral it around backwards... about the same distance of the completed pass. Maybe 5 seconds left when Detroit gets hit with a penalty... Facemask? maybe. The Lions fans look at me and say... "See... Told Ya... This is what it's like to be Lions Fan". And I'm like... "The Packers can only Hail Mary this thing". 

Which is exactly what the Packers did!!!

The moral to this story

Chief... For Gods sake... Quit acting like a Lions Fan!!! 

Y'know, just 'cause you're paranoid don't mean they aren't out to get ya.

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

I agree. They were in contention most games. The fact that the overworked bullpen couldn’t lock down a couple of those shows how vulnerable the bullpen is. Those are the kinds of games they’ll be expected to close out in the postseason. If everyone is gassed out now how in the world can they be expected to close out a series worth of those games let alone 4 series’ worth of games? Even if they limp into the playoffs without a major change in how this team is playing they’re DOA come the wild card series.

It wasn't the bullpens finest hour. 

In my opinion... Bullpens are Martha and the Vandelas. There is nowhere to run... Nowhere to hide from leverage. Bullpens need to be 7 deep. It doesn't take money but you need a bullpen full of arms with stuff. 

The good thing is that most teams are in the same boat. Bullpens are gassed or with arms with tanks that shouldn't get fuel in the first place across the league.  

 

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Drama to see who advances. More baseball. I'm not convinced that taking division winners does anything most years, other than only one east coast team making it. 

It's all about hope in more cities. Other than Denver and Chicago, of course

I get what you're saying and I believe that you believe it, but I don't think it's actually true. In general, it's not true. We all love a David vs Goliath story, but nobody wants to watch a David vs David story. 

And as for hope? How much hope you been seeing on this website this week? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, NYCTK said:

I get what you're saying and I believe that you believe it, but I don't think it's actually true. In general, it's not true. We all love a David vs Goliath story, but nobody wants to watch a David vs David story. 

And as for hope? How much hope you been seeing on this website this week? 

this website largely sucks, and I'm coming here less and less. 

[FargoFanMan]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's such an interesting premise to me that Falvey is the one who might choose to terminate his time with the Twins when Joe Pohlad made it clear last year Falvey was on the hot seat. https://www.startribune.com/joe-pohlad-feeling-urgency-as-minnesota-twins-falter-jim-souhan/600288463 As of right now, it appears ownership has chosen a wait and see approach for a GM who will have made the playoffs 4 times in 8 years, with one playoff series win and the 2nd highest budget of any team in the least competitive division in baseball over that time span.

Falvey hasn't developed proven elite talent at the MLB level. Not a single All Star has come from Falvey's drafting and development in 8 years on the job. Around here, it seems he's often viewed as some sort of celebrity king-maker because the Twins are a pretty nice employer https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/twins-front-office-ranked-eighth-best-in-baseball-in-athletic-poll when they're not conspiring to with other teams to win more championship belts for beating their players down in arbitration https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/ or angering the faces of their franchise like Buxton and Berrios in 2021, and probably Royce Lewis this year.

My viewpoint coming into 2024 was Falvey was being challenged to put together a team without the ownership group bailing him out by extending payroll as they'd done late in the offseason in back to back years for Correa. It wasn't my favorite decision, but $130MM was enough if Falvey handled the budget well and made the right, but tough, decisions. Instead, Falvey failed to address any pressing need the Twins had. He gets an F from me for the offseason. When it came to the trade deadline, ownership gets the F, Falvey gets a D. It's Falvey's job to improve the team, and press for a World Series with the resources he does have. That includes the farm system. If the budget wasn't there, the farm system was. Falvey got conservative. Maybe ownership chose to hamstring Falvey in trading assets as well because of Falvey's potential lame-duck status? I could see that happening, in which case, I do think Falvey might test the waters elsewhere.

Maybe this is all true. Maybe Falvey isn’t the best PBO. Maybe Rocco isn’t the best manager. Maybe. But when the current situation so strongly mirrors 40 years worth of Pohlad ownership over multiple competitive windows only to have the same thing happen I don’t care who the manager is. Or the PBO or the GM. This is a family that continually chooses long term profitability over championships. If Joe Pohlad wants to run the team like Tampa Bay or Milwaukee then that’s what we’ll get. A revolving door of players with no championships. We’ll make the playoffs now and again but never go all in when a strong team comes along. The rebuilds will come and go and so will the so called prospects. Good and bad. But you’ll never have that long run in the playoffs and after the season everyone will say awww shucks and try to make the playoffs again next year with a he same 2-3 stars and a bunch of former prospects. Never go all in. Never make the big trade. Never make the big deal. Sound familiar?

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Well don't watch then.

This is a good point if the expansion were separate and not an active change of something already existing. If you hurt a product for the gain of a few, I am allowed to complain. 

Only 9.1 Million people watched World Series Game 1 last year. That's pitiful. What good is it to provide false hope to some people when the hope you're offering is less and less meaningful? 

[FargoFanMan]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It wasn't the bullpens finest hour. 

In my opinion... Bullpens are Martha and the Vandelas. There is nowhere to run... Nowhere to hide from leverage. Bullpens need to be 7 deep. It doesn't take money but you need a bullpen full of arms with stuff. 

The good thing is that most teams are in the same boat. Bullpens are gassed or with arms with tanks that shouldn't get fuel in the first place across the league.  

 

Ehhhh, Aaron Gleeman brought up a very striking stat about this bullpen last week. I don’t recall the exact numbers but I believe it was how many inherited runners this bullpen has let score. The Twins have let something like 45% of inherited runners score which amounted to 20 something runs. The next worst team was like 34%. He stated that that’s the worst rate in like 25 years. That’s unsustainable. Especially in the playoffs where you have to continually protect 1 and 2 run leads night after night against the best lineups in baseball. I’d love nothing more than to be proven wrong and watch this team win a WS. That just seems so far out of the realm of possibility with how they’re playing right now.

[USAFChief]

BTW...the Twins were rumored to have "been in on" Yusai Kikucki. Kikuchi went to Houston, and many here claimed Houston got "fleeced." "Massive overpay."

On July 30th, the day of the trade, Houston lost, with a record of 55-52. 1 game behind Seattle in the ALW.

Today Houston is 83-70. In first place in the ALW. 

Kikuchi is 5-0, with a 3.00 ERA. Houston is 9-0 in games started by Kikuchi. Kikuchi has pitched into at least the 6th inning in every one of those 9 starts.

I wonder if anyone in Houston regrets the price they paid.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

BTW...the Twins were rumored to have "been in on" Yusai Kikucki. Kikuchi went to Houston, and many here claimed Houston got "fleeced." "Massive overpay."

On July 30th, the day of the trade, Houston lost, with a record of 55-52. 1 game behind Seattle in the ALW.

Today Houston is 83-70. In first place in the ALW. 

Kikuchi is 5-0, with a 3.00 ERA. Houston is 9-0 in games started by Kikuchi. Kikuchi has pitched into at least the 6th inning in every one of those 9 starts.

I wonder if anyone in Houston regrets the price they paid.

I wouldn't be regretting it. 

And I wasn't sure I wanted Kikuchi in the first place. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

Maybe this is all true. Maybe Falvey isn’t the best PBO. Maybe Rocco isn’t the best manager. Maybe. But when the current situation so strongly mirrors 40 years worth of Pohlad ownership over multiple competitive windows only to have the same thing happen I don’t care who the manager is. Or the PBO or the GM. This is a family that continually chooses long term profitability over championships. If Joe Pohlad wants to run the team like Tampa Bay or Milwaukee then that’s what we’ll get. A revolving door of players with no championships. We’ll make the playoffs now and again but never go all in when a strong team comes along. The rebuilds will come and go and so will the so called prospects. Good and bad. But you’ll never have that long run in the playoffs and after the season everyone will say awww shucks and try to make the playoffs again next year with a he same 2-3 stars and a bunch of former prospects. Never go all in. Never make the big trade. Never make the big deal. Sound familiar?

That's not fair to Milwaukee. They tend to go for it when they have a chance.

[Beast]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

With the benefit of hindsight, the Twins should have traded Max Kepler at the deadline. They should have traded Carlos Santana as well, his production was mostly in June.

That seems inconsequential at best.  They would’ve gotten nothing in return.  There’s a more than adequate replacements for Kepler with Wallner and/or Larnach.  Carlos Santana may win a gold glove and have a case for the MVP this year.

They should’ve bolstered like the bullpen in free agency and/or at the deadline.  That didn’t take hindsight.

[FargoFanMan]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's not fair to Milwaukee. They tend to go for it when they have a chance.

Fair or not they operate under the same model. Maybe not as extreme as Tampa Bay but we witnessed it this last offseason. They traded Corbin Burns for prospects. A few years ago they unloaded Hader at the deadline while they were still in the race. The team was pissed but either you get something for these guys or you lose them for a draft pick. That’s the model. Yes they went big back in the day with Sabathia and Grienke but I think that was a different regime. Tampa Bay unloaded at this deadline while they were still in the race based solely on the price that teams were paying for guys. As an owner do you really want to tell your fan base that you want to run your team like that? If that’s the model then maybe they’re thinking of unloading guys like Lewis, Duran, Castro, Miranda, Jax. Not because they want to but because you’re not willing to sign them and you want value for them now before they become too expensive.Maybe you find a taker for Correa or Pablo? Not because it’s a steal but maybe it offers you salary relief. Is that the message? Cause that’s how those teams operate. 

[TopGunn#22]

Happy Birthday RiverBrian !!!