How Tradeable Are MLB Draft Picks, and How Might the Twins Do It?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Ok, ok… we know that you can’t trade draft picks. Well, except for just a few, you can’t trade draft picks. That doesn’t mean you can’t manipulate your bonus pool in such a way to operate like you’re trading draft picks. And maybe that’s an approach the Twins should consider taking this year.

Image courtesy of © Cory Knowlton-USA TODAY Sports

Teams do this to some extent each year. They draft seniors and sign them for tiny bonuses, planning to reallocate their funds to higher draft picks to pay them more money. That’s the biggest difference between the MLB Draft and the NFL and NBA drafts. In those drafts, pick bonuses are hard-capped. If you’re drafted earlier, you’re making more money. 

Sure, you can nitpick and say the NBA has a scale that goes 20% above to 20% below the value, so Knicks draft pick Pacome Dadiet will make less than the guy who was drafted after him. And that the NFL draft picks always get hung up on “offset” language, which could eventually change the bottom line for some. But the drafts on a whole are apples and oranges. 

I’m not going to get too deep into the minutiae of everything. It would get wordy, and you’d lose interest. Instead, I’m going to give you a few examples of how teams have done this in the past.

The first example I can remember is the Royals in 2013. Drafting 8th overall and possessing the 34th pick (the first of the competitive-balance round), the Royals had money to play games. They drafted Hunter Dozier with the eighth pick, who was considered a back-half of the first-round guy, at best. Dozier signed for a bonus of $2.2 million, below his slot allotment and more in line with what the 16th or 17th pick would get. In essence, they traded down. They now had extra money to spend, or “trade up.”

When top-10 talent Sean Manaea continued to fall and eventually went to the Royals with the 34th pick, he was signed for $3.55 million. That bonus fell in line with what the 6th pick would get.

You might ask, why didn’t they just draft Manaea first and Dozier second? Well, Dozier may have been gone. And then you would say, “Well, they didn’t know Manaea would still be there.” And that’s where I’d argue with you. He was floating hefty bonus demands that no team would have the money to meet before the Royals came back on the clock. 

I also think that, due to some hip issues that Manaea had been experiencing, there was some doubt about his health, and there was less of a risk in matching Manaea up with that lower pick in case something showed up in his physical and he didn’t sign. The Royals would still have the extra money from signing Dozier to throw at later guys. They did draft and not sign four guys in the last 10 rounds who became major leaguers. They would have been the likely beneficiaries of Manaea not signing.

Another, more recent example is the Cubs in 2022. Their selection of Cade Horton seventh overall was met with more than a few raised eyebrows. He was considered a first-round prospect, but this was too high. His under-slot bonus of $4.45 million was very close to slot for the 13th pick. Ah, a “trade back.”

The result was a “trade up” from 47th, where they drafted Jackson Ferris, another first-round talent, in the second round and paid him $3.01 million. That matches with the 24th pick’s slot. So while drafted 7th and 47th, the Cubs manipulated their money to essentially pay their selections as if they were the 13th and 24th picks. These are not the only examples. There are dozens. And they can be done on a wide variety of scales.

So what are the Twins outside-the-box options?

The Twins draft 21st, 33rd, 60th and 69th, and those picks have a total bonus pool allotment of over $9.2 million. Breaking this down to its simplest form, if the Twins use their second, third, and fourth picks and sign guys for 75% of their bonus (which is guaranteed for anyone who submitted medicals at the combine), the Twins could add an additional $1.35 million to their first-round pick bonus and “trade up” from 21st to 13th.

Sure, it’s more complex than this, because other teams in front of them can do the same thing and there’s no guarantee that your preferred player will fall to your actual pick. You have to do background work, and you have to have a fallback plan. But it’s also as simple as that: if you want a guy that might not be available at your spot, call their agent and tell them they have money waiting for them.

Who might be of interest to the Twins in this scenario?

Maybe it’s unfair (or just overly simplistic) to say they have an affinity toward college hitters, but that’s a demographic that they have leaned on heavily. Do they feel especially strong towards a player like James Tibbs or Cameron Smith, both of Florida State? Do they like Carson Benge enough to offer him extra money in an attempt to float him down the board a half dozen more spots?

Or maybe it’s something more run-of-the-mill. High school pitchers always seem to have bigger price tags, and in the NIL era, they have access to other money sooner. Could a pitcher like William Schmidt or Ryan Sloan be encouraged to sign for an extra $1 million at pick 21? 

The chances are the Twins play it relatively straight. The biggest domino to fall is the first one. Maybe the guy you like the most isn’t the most expensive player on the board, and in that moment the “trade down” becomes available. On the flip side, maybe that first domino falls the other way. It's impossible to know what's going to happen with the 20 picks in front of yours.

At any rate, it’s going to be a blast watching every team not only make a new player’s dream come true but also do it while working their phones, their boards, and their draft pool.

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[FlyingFinn]

If you are a player that is drafted in the 1st round with an underslot pick, don't read these forums like TD. People will constantly refer to you as a failed 1st round pick if you don't perform like your draft pick slot.

[old nurse]

Cade Horton is looking like a legitimize pick for his slot. Jackson Harris remains to be seen. Perhaps it is more a case the Cubs were a little smarter this time. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The most memorable is what the Rangers did 2022.  They drafted both Kumar Rocker in the 1st and  Porter in the 4th.   They had no 2nd or 3rd round draft choices, so dumped almost all bonus money into those 2 players,  and negotiated lower on Rocker to get Porter as well.  

The 2019 is the most memorable for the Twins.  As they were to give a much larger bonus to Will Holland in the 5th and Julien in the 17th for 3rd round money.   

 

[old nurse]

College baseball is limited to 11.7 full scholarships. It is more likely that a player has to pay to play than not. NIL money is not that great in college. LSU was reported to have the best fund at 10 million. I don’t think the money is there for any player to pass up the 7 figure bonus. If the HS player is a fast riser through the minors it is free agency sooner. The sooner you hit free agency the money you will make will pale anything a college has. The Twins have not had a high school prospect rise up fast in recent history, but they can still try that selling point 

[Dman]

It is a tough call to set scenarios up before the draft because you never know who is going to fall to you.  21 seems like a bit of a tough spot as most of the guys I like appear to be going earlier. However, if more pitchers get taken in the top 20, then one of those top bats could yet fall to the Twins. If that is the case I wouldn't look to "save" money and just choose the superior player.

The only rumor I have heard is the Twins taking Sanford with an under slot deal at 21.  It looks like his earliest landing spot would be 29 and if he doesn't go there then he could make it to his mocked spot of 33 to the Twins which seems like his floor. Pick 21 is worth $3,9M and 29 is worth 3M.  If the Twins could get a 500 too 600 Grand discount there that could help them buy down a player it might be worth doing that.

In my scenario they save 600K on Sanford. Take a college bat at 33 and then use the 600K if not a little more to buy their way back to the top of the 2nd round and grab a top prep pitcher if one is still available there.  Or if they could go Prep pitcher at 33 they can buy down a bat.  Whichever way they think works to their advantage.

Sanford's Defense does appear to be very good, but there still are questions about the bat.  If you believe the bat will come around he is a good pick at 21.  If the bat doesn't develop ala Noah Miller then you have another Miller scenario.  Joe Doyle seems to think Sanford may have unlocked something in the bat and has him ranked 21 on his board.  Most mocks have teams less excited allowing him to drop.  I like him as a pick at 33 just not sure about 21 given the talent that will be there.

I do think Seaver King could fall to the Twins at 21 and if that does happen that would be my pick.  I also still kind of like Janek at 21.  His elite arm is tantalizing and even if the hit tool does fizzle some he has some power and decent plate discipline and it would be nice to have an elite defensive catcher in the system.  Something the Twins haven't really had in a long time.

I really like Gillen but he seems to be dropping on concerns about the arm.  Some think his arm might be problematic enough to leave him at DH only which seems pessimistic and if King isn't there Gillen would be my next choice mainly because bat to ball skills seem to work out best.  I have also heard the Twins connected to Culpepper who seems to fit their model well.  Both he and King are players that could be moved around like Willie Castro so lot's of position versatility to go along with good exit velocity bats. I have also come around on Malcom Moore just not at 21 as I would rather have Janek.

It will be interesting to see what they do.

 

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Cade Horton is looking like a legitimize pick for his slot. Jackson Harris remains to be seen. Perhaps it is more a case the Cubs were a little smarter this time. 

Horton does and they traded Ferris. That's simply putting names to the "who." My focus is on the "how" and, to an extent, the "why."

[old nurse]

11 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Horton does and they traded Ferris. That's simply putting names to the "who." My focus is on the "how" and, to an extent, the "why."

Ahh, but the why do something like that is the Cubs got a top 50 prospect out of the trade who is doing well

[Mike Sixel]

The draft's lack of depth this year (from what I read on EVERY site) makes me think an under slot deal is a worse idea than ever this year. 

IMO, take the best player at your spot is almost always a better idea than take two lesser rated players (which they would be in a scenario where you are intentionally taking a lesser player to pay them less).

[SaberNerd]

One of the things with underslotting guys is that often the team actually thinks that player is BPA (or essentially equivalent), but that player is expected to go lower.  If the Twins don't get one of the top college bats they could (King/Smith/Benge/Waldschmidt) I would expect their pick to be slightly underslot simply due to the back half of the first round being a mess and players willing to take a deal to make sure they don't fall.

For buying a player down, it would be really hard to try to buy down a College Jr hitter, since they don't have a ton of leverage to go back to school to be drafted as a Sr.

[Guest]

If there is anybody unfamiliar with NIL era, like I was, here is a link: https://collegefootballnetwork.com/what-is-nil-meaning-name-image-likeness-explained/

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, SaberNerd said:

One of the things with underslotting guys is that often the team actually thinks that player is BPA (or essentially equivalent), but that player is expected to go lower.  If the Twins don't get one of the top college bats they could (King/Smith/Benge/Waldschmidt) I would expect their pick to be slightly underslot simply due to the back half of the first round being a mess and players willing to take a deal to make sure they don't fall.

For buying a player down, it would be really hard to try to buy down a College Jr hitter, since they don't have a ton of leverage to go back to school to be drafted as a Sr.

I think that first sentence is the key to this discussion. Most teams have the prospects tiered. There's some organizing within those tiers, but the first step is to tier guys. If a team at the top of the draft has 4 guys all in the same tier and 1 of them is going to cost 2 mil less than the other 3 choosing that cheaper player to save money is very different than having 4 guys in tier 1 and picking somebody from tier 2 or 3 instead in order to save money.

Last year was universally viewed as a draft with 5 elite guys and then a drop off. There were numerous rumors that Crews wanted significantly more than Skenes at pick 1-1. I have no idea if that actually played into the Pirates' decision, and Skenes did sign for 200k more, but it's a pretty logical decision to take Skenes in that situation if Crews was telling them he'd require full slot compared to the 500k less Skenes took. But if the Pirates had drafted Jacob Wilson (went 6th) in order to save money that would be a highly questionable strategy.

We tend to get rankings in terms of lists when really they should be tiers. There aren't as hard and fast lines between each guy as people tend to act like there are when it's a listed ranking.

[Mike Sixel]

If they have them ranked the same, that's very different than picking a lesser guy to get two guys, the second of which is better than other guys in that area of the draft. Either way, not likely this year given the rankings.