Twins Daily Mock Draft v. 1.0 (Nygaard Edition): An Unusual Target

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Mock Draft season is upon us. We're still six weeks from having any clarity, but it's always fun to start speculating. There is still plenty of college baseball to be played, which will have an impact on some players' stocks. The Draft Combine will happen in two weeks, and that will provide some more information about what teams are after.

Mock Drafts are a lot of fun, even a month and a half ahead of the actual event. The Guardians were the lucky winners of this year's draft lottery, and there is plenty of uncertainty in terms of what they will do, as well as the teams behind them. Last year appeared to be a top tier of five players. This year, there are about 10 college hitters (a few of whom have separated themselves), two college pitchers, and two prep players who seem to be part of the "top group." All that means, though, is that there is going to be a wide-open field of possibilities as players and teams try to match up evaluations, bonus demands, and pool manipulations.

Here is my first mock draft of the 2024 season. Jamie Cameron will also be doing his own.

More to come, and much, much more detail on the potential top picks. Please share your thoughts on this mock draft. How would you feel about the picks made for the Twins?

1. Cleveland Guardians - Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia
There has been a lot of Travis Bazzana steam here lately, and since he's an up-the-middle defender, that makes sense. Ultimately, my personal preference is to land the nation’s best hitter; that’s Condon.

2. Cincinnati Reds - Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
While the Reds haven’t been heavily tied with Bazzana (and they have a ton of infielders), take the best player available and move on.

3. Colorado Rockies - Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Now, let me go back on everything I’ve said about not drafting for need, and say this instead: “The Rockies need to take pitchers in the draft, because no one actually wants to pitch in Colorado.” Smith hasn’t been as good as Chase Burns lately, but when in doubt, take the lefty. 

4. Oakland Athletics - Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
It was really a toss-up here, between Montgomery and Jac Caglianone. Montgomery has a higher ceiling, and the A’s are desperate for stars. 

5. Chicago White Sox - Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
If Hagen Smith is on the board, he just makes too much sense here. But with him gone, there is one hitter left in the top tier, and that’s whom the White Sox take.

6. Kansas City Royals - Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (Miss.) HS
Not a lot of steam at this point, but it wouldn’t be hard to see the Royals popping the draft’s first prep player. It fits their patterns.

7. St. Louis Cardinals - Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Burns has been awesome lately, and could hear his name called before this point.

8. Los Angeles Angels - James Tibbs, OF, Florida State
The Angels have no use for more minor leaguers (or something like that), and after rapidly promoting their last two first-round picks, they’ll do it with an outfielder this time. 

9. Pittsburgh Pirates - J.J. Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
The pitching is starting to line up. Now it’s time to address the hitters, and Wetherholt, coming off an injury-riddled season, would be great value at No. 9.

10. Washington Nationals - Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (Calif.) HS
Lots of smoke around the Nationals going the prep route.

11. Detroit Tigers - Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Ariz.) HS
Pegging a landing spot for prep pitchers is the hardest thing to do.

12. Boston Red Sox - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Kurtz should go higher, but there’s been a shoulder issue that may scare some teams off.

13. San Francisco Giants - Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
The Giants luck into the last of this tier of college hitters.

14. Chicago Cubs - Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
The college hitter pool would be the preferred demographic, but getting the third-best college pitcher would be a fine consolation prize.

15. Seattle Mariners - Ryan Sloan, RHP, York Community (Ill.) HS
Sloan is another example of a player getting paid for being a top prep arm, regardless of where he actually ends up.

16. Miami Marlins - Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal
There are a handful of college catchers who will be in play in the back half of the first round.

17. Milwaukee Brewers - Cameron Smith, 3B, Florida State
The Brewers got a haul of “could-be third baseman" types in the 2023 draft, so let’s add another.

18. Tampa Bay Rays - William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic (La.) High School
Why not place a prep pitcher with the Rays?

19. New York Mets - Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
Honeycutt is a polarizing prospect, but seems destined to play in the bright lights of New York.

20. Toronto Blue Jays - Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
A large tier of college hitters will be in consideration for a long stretch here.

21. Minnesota Twins - Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
Jordan might not be the perfect offensive profile match for the Twins, but he’s a freaky athlete with loud tools and a high ceiling.

22. Baltimore Orioles - Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
The Orioles are loaded with hitters. Now, let’s give them an explosive arm.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers - Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore has been climbing, and the Dodgers will keep him going.

24. Atlanta Braves - Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
The second college catcher finds his way into the first round.

25. San Diego Padres - Theo Gillen, 2B, Westlake (Texas) HS
Gillen is full of upside, and the Padres love upside.

26. New York Yankees - Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View (Ark.) HS
Caldwell is undersized (to say the least), but has first-round talent.

27. Philadelphia Phillies - Tommy White, 3B, LSU
“Tanks” is as well-known as any draftable player. But there are questions about his profile.

28. Houston Astros - Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State
A switch-pitcher who has climbed with an impressive year in the SEC.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks - Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
The last of three first-round catchers drafted out of college.

30. Texas Rangers - Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
The Rangers are lucky to get a college bat of this quality to fall.

31. Arizona Diamondbacks - Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS

32. Baltimore Orioles - Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky

33. Minnesota Twins - Kaelon Culpepper, SS, Kansas State

34. Milwaukee Brewers - Caleb Bonemer, SS, Okemos (Mich.) HS

35. Arizona Diamondbacks - Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee (Fla.) HS

36. Cleveland Guardians - Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny Centennial (Iowa) HS

37. Pittsburgh Pirates - Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence (Tex.) HS

38. Colorado Rockies - Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke

39. Kansas City Royals - Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford (Miss.) HS

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Do you have any favorites in this group for the Twins, or guys you expect to go higher or lower than listed? Sound off below.

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[Dman]

I think that looks pretty solid through the first 20 picks or so.  I have to say I don't love the Jordan pick.  Could he be a steal? He sure could be, but when you are talking about contact problems not sure I am ready for that kind of risk.  I think once bitten twice shy or maybe thrice bitten twice shy with similar plays for Cavaco, Wallner and Sabato.  Granted Jordan has better physical skills than all of them, but power over hit just seems like a lot of strikeout pain hoping for better days ahead.  It Feels like we have been there and done that and it hasn't worked out well.  If he is the one who finds that other level you would be getting a 5 tool player top 3 pick at 21, but the odds are not in your favor IMO and is why he likely falls down the board.

While I don't know how I feel about a 5'9" center fielder (Granted Ben Revere was 5'9") with a below average arm, I love everything else about Slade Caldwell.  I love a plus hit tool.  Throw in a guy who can steal bases and track down balls in the outfield and if he is still there I think he is my pick at 21.

Gillen and his elite contact rates are also growing on me.  Yet another weak armed 2nd baseman, but I think that is the only reason he drops that far down.  I just think elite bat to ball is the way to go.

I also am high on Benge.  I like\love everything about the profile except maybe speed.  Those would be the three guys I would look to take at 21 if it were me.

Get the bat right because that is what matters most.  If they can't hit they'll never make it.  If they aren't elite fielders but can hit they will find a place for them. Get the hit tool right.

 

[Rigby]

Christian Moore is an intriguing target.

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Jeremy for putting in the work here. I really can't get excited about this draft. I like Walker Janek (C) but IMO it's too little too late. Even if the Twins do decide to take a  catcher 1st round.

[DocBauer]

Not sure I'm crazy about Jordan either. But then again, at 21, you're not usually getting a sure thing. More likely, you're looking to roll the dice and see if they come up 7.

Culpepper as the Twins bonus pool pick is unexpected. I think they'll grab a true SS with one of their top 4 selections. But I've been thinking it would be one of the top HS SS with Correa still holding down the spot for the next 3 or 4 years. 

[Dman]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Culpepper as the Twins bonus pool pick is unexpected. I think they'll grab a true SS with one of their top 4 selections. But I've been thinking it would be one of the top HS SS with Correa still holding down the spot for the next 3 or 4 years. 

Yeah if you want to bet bigger on up the middle I would go with Wyatt Sanford instead of Culpepper.  Sanford is a very good defensive shortstop and a plus runner.  Hit tool and power about the same as Culpepper but Sanford is predicted to stick at short Culpepper more likely third. His high school timeline matches up better with Correa as well.  I haven't seen his swing but I would bet the Twins could coax a bit more power out of Sanford since they would be getting him young.

[twinstalker]

When in doubt take the lefty?  I'd be willing to bet that, when talking first-round college SPs and adjusting for pick number, you're better off with the righty in terms of MLB starting pitching stats.

[2wins87]

To be honest I would be pretty disappointed with this draft for the Twins.

I liked Jordan early on, but his already iffy K rate got even worse as the season wore on and his overall production faded a bit from his hot start. The power definitely translates (which is more of a question for other guys in college baseball's current homer-bloated environment), but 29% K against college pitching is a huuuge red flag and I have him more as a comp A pick now.  Among the college guys, I'd rather go for a more well rounded bat like Christian Moore or maybe even Amick, or a more premium position with one of the catchers Malcolm Moore or Janek.  That's not to mention a few of the HS hitters, or pitchers Brecht or Mayfield.

Culpepper seems in range for the comp A pick.  The bat looks good if he sticks at short, but that is pretty doubtful, in which case you're hoping for significantly above average defense at 3B with hopefully an average-ish bat.  Just kind of an in-between profile for me, though I don't dislike the pick in a vacuum.

The guy still on the board at that point that I'd be most excited about would be Sanford.  I also think Jacob Cozart is underrated and would be fine with him as a comp A pick.

Overall, I'd like to see a little more upside with at least one of the first two picks.

[2wins87]

15 hours ago, Dman said:

While I don't know how I feel about a 5'9" center fielder (Granted Ben Revere was 5'9") with a below average arm, I love everything else about Slade Caldwell.  I love a plus hit tool.  Throw in a guy who can steal bases and track down balls in the outfield and if he is still there I think he is my pick at 21.

The unfair comp is probably more Corbin Carroll than Ben Revere if you are really high on Caldwell.

As I said, unfair, but more broadly I think you just have to evaluate the tools as they are with smaller guys and can't just knock them for being smaller.  I suppose it is harder to project a higher future grade for power with a smaller guy, but at the same time I'd argue that the same might be true when projecting forward the hit tool on a bigger guy with long levers.  Guys like Carroll and Altuve prove that there are ways for smaller guys to get to plenty of power.

I'm no scout but the tools sound very good with Caldwell, so I agree that he'd be worthy of a top 20 pick.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If the draft fell this way, I'd much more (at this point) want the Twins to take any of the following 3 picks instead of Jordan. Brecht, Christian or Malcolm Moore all interest me more than Jordan. He is a great athlete, but I question the strikeout rate in college getting better in the pros.

Slade Caldwell also would be a homerun at 21 in my opinion.

 

Really fun to see mocks start to hit twinsdaily though. Thanks!

[Jeremy Nygaard]

8 hours ago, twinstalker said:

When in doubt take the lefty?  I'd be willing to bet that, when talking first-round college SPs and adjusting for pick number, you're better off with the righty in terms of MLB starting pitching stats.

I looked back on the drafts starting in 2013 and, just by eyeballing it (using bWAR), it looks about the same. Higher volume of righties drafted (obviously) but a lot more misses than hits in both demographics. 

The best example of this is the 2014 draft.

Carlos Rodon (LHP, 3rd overall) 16.8 bWAR

Aaron Nola (RHP, 7th overall) 32.9 bWAR

Kyle Freeland (LHP, 8th overall) 16.9 bWAR

Jeff Hoffman (RHP, 9th overall) 2.6 bWAR

Tyler Beede (RHP, 14th overall) -1.2 bWAR

Sean Newcomb (LHP, 15th overall) 2.6 bWAR

Generally, lefties have a higher floor. And I think that's why I lean that side if it's a toss-up. I think *some* teams do that as well. Look at the history of the Rockies draft picks, they have taken a ton of left-handed pitchers... so, yeah, I think the Rockies should take a pitcher and because they're close, take the lefty.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Give me Brecht.  His Pitching coach was fired this year,  issues with the entire staff.   He still improved this year.  He has 2 elite pitches,  1 being a slider that the Twins love.  If he gets there, you take him and run is my opinion.  He has the highest potential of being a #1 pitcher, of almost any other pitcher this year.   The other I look at is Morgan if he is willing to come out from Iowa.  Both solid pitchers.  You should be able to get good intel on both players from Langenberg.  I could see the Twins picking both personally.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Not sure I'm crazy about Jordan either. But then again, at 21, you're not usually getting a sure thing. More likely, you're looking to roll the dice and see if they come up 7.

Culpepper as the Twins bonus pool pick is unexpected. I think they'll grab a true SS with one of their top 4 selections. But I've been thinking it would be one of the top HS SS with Correa still holding down the spot for the next 3 or 4 years. 

That's the thing with Jordan and drafting 21. There's some freaky data there that the Twins will absolutely love. There are also warts, but that's why he's not going Top 5.

The x-factor is that the Twins are going to take a high-character guy and that's not publically available information.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If the draft fell this way, I'd much more (at this point) want the Twins to take any of the following 3 picks instead of Jordan. Brecht, Christian or Malcolm Moore all interest me more than Jordan. He is a great athlete, but I question the strikeout rate in college getting better in the pros.

Slade Caldwell also would be a homerun at 21 in my opinion.

 

Really fun to see mocks start to hit twinsdaily though. Thanks!

I think all of them would be options.

Slade Caldwell is someone I think the Twins would absolutely love and that selection would surprise me zero.

[twinstalker]

On 6/5/2024 at 9:16 AM, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I looked back on the drafts starting in 2013 and, just by eyeballing it (using bWAR), it looks about the same. Higher volume of righties drafted (obviously) but a lot more misses than hits in both demographics. 

The best example of this is the 2014 draft.

Carlos Rodon (LHP, 3rd overall) 16.8 bWAR

Aaron Nola (RHP, 7th overall) 32.9 bWAR

Kyle Freeland (LHP, 8th overall) 16.9 bWAR

Jeff Hoffman (RHP, 9th overall) 2.6 bWAR

Tyler Beede (RHP, 14th overall) -1.2 bWAR

Sean Newcomb (LHP, 15th overall) 2.6 bWAR

Generally, lefties have a higher floor. And I think that's why I lean that side if it's a toss-up. I think *some* teams do that as well. Look at the history of the Rockies draft picks, they have taken a ton of left-handed pitchers... so, yeah, I think the Rockies should take a pitcher and because they're close, take the lefty.

 

I'm not sure how this possibly supports your assertion, especially being the "best" example (to support your cause).  What would make this "when in doubt?"

Besides not being designed to answer the question, this draft, IIRC, had Rodon as the best college pitcher out there by far.  The first possible "when in doubt" moment is with Nola and Freeman, though I'm not sure how good Freeman is or isn't, given Colorado.

Regardless, listing the pitchers in a draft with their WAR doesn't come close to answering the question.  An observational design would look at college pitchers over a number of years taken with the same pick or possibly the same pick ranking for college pitchers.  Or more simply, look at college lefties vs righties overall production in MLB fractioned by the percentage of each who make it, accounting for starting and innings pitched.

It's an interesting question, but I don't think there's anything supporting your statement.  It's possible lefties are a better choice, I just doubt there's a proper basis, and my instinct says righties.