Chris Paddack's Velocity is Down. Should David Festa Come Up?

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

One one hand I'd like to see Festa, but on the other I've still yet to see this team figure out a starting pitcher who has control issues. Despite those issues, I think he has a ton of value. I'm a 'play the young guys' fan, but I think I'd still look to package him with other prospects to replace Paddock with an established good arm. 

Though I say that really with only eyes toward the Marlins. I guess if they can't pry away Luzardo or Garrett I'm happy to roll the dice with Festa.

I think it'd cost Festa plus something significant for a well performing starting pitcher with multiple years of control. Not to mention Luzardo will make pretty good money next year which will cause issues elsewhere on the roster. At that point I'd just roll with the top prospect who's dominating Triple-A. 

I'm not really one to hug prospects, but if the Twins think Festa is good, it'd be weird to draft him and develop him right up to the point where he looks MLB ready and then trade him away.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Larry Janisewski said:

This might be a dumb idea but what about controlling both Paddock's and Festa's innings by piggy backing the two

The only problem is that costs another roster spot and Paddack would still be accumulating innings. I also think when it's time for Festa to debut, you give him a shot as a legitimate starting pitcher. He's built up to throw 5-6 innings, so why not?

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

Yes, Paddack would go to IL, but remain on 40 man roster so if Festa called up someone else would need to be taken off 40 man roster.

I think there will be a 40 man spot opening in a few days when Royce is back. Hopefully. 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I think it'd cost Festa plus something significant for a well performing starting pitcher with multiple years of control. Not to mention Luzardo will make pretty good money next year which will cause issues elsewhere on the roster. At that point I'd just roll with the top prospect who's dominating Triple-A. 

I'm not really one to hug prospects, but if the Twins think Festa is good, it'd be weird to draft him and develop him right up to the point where he looks MLB ready and then trade him away.

For sure, and I'm willing.

As to the second part, that's where I'm leery. He's put up great numbers, but that command doesn't seem to have developed. I'm nowhere close to writing him off, far from it, but I'll be holding my breath when he comes up. I'd hate to see 5-6 walks per outing and the fans and the rest of the league recognizes it as an uncurbable wart.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

IIRC, Varland's first start was in Yankee Stadium. He did pretty well.  It isn't optimum, but it might not be a bad idea.

I think giving Paddack a break might be the right move. Since his eight inning start in Cleveland, he has struggled although the results having been that bad. 

This is a great idea.  If you make a move now, we actually can choose when Festa starts. Monday is an off day so you can have Ober start Tuesday and bring back Lopez and Ryan on regular rest Wednesday and Thursday in New York. Essentially, you simply skip Paddack’s start this time through the rotation. You then run into short starts Saturday against Pittsburgh. So, the opportunity is there to put Paddack on the 15 day IL today and have him miss effectively only two starts in three turns through the rotation with Festa getting those two starts, one on the road in Pittsburgh, and one at home against either Colorado or Oakland, depending on whether you pitch Festa on Friday or Saturday against Pittsburgh. Paddack is then back for the next time that spot opens on June 18 after an off day on June 17, which gives the other four guys an extra day on that turn.

I think this is a great idea and the perfect time to do it. Actually be disappointed if the twins don’t do this in the next couple of days. Paddack is good for about 25 starts this year max. Let’s give him a break now, maybe another break in early August and have him pitching those starts when he’s as rested as possible.

 

 

 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ober wasn't doing that great down in AAA before he was called up permanently. But when he was called up again he raked. I believe if Varland is called up again & is settled in the BP again, he rake. Independent of what he's doing in AAA.

Feel free to take another look at Ober's AAA results.
2021 = 4 GS, 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 11.81 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP
2022 = 2 GS, 9.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, 12.10 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 0.71 WHIP
2023 = 5 GS, 22.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 9.93 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.97 WHIP

Louie Varland's last 4 AAA starts:
2024 = 4 GS, 20.2 IP, 6.53 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 8.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP

Not missing bats, walking too many, giving up tons of hits. Varland might yet turn some things around, but he's not pitching well at all right now.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Agreed on Varland. I frankly think that his only chance of pitching at the MLB level this year will be out of injury desperation or, more likely, out of the bullpen come August. I know starters are more valuable and make more money so I completely understand giving him every opportunity to show he can be a major-league starting pitcher. Still, it's looking more and more like he's not going to be able to do that, at least not this year, and he's already shown us that he could be a very impactful high leverage major-league reliever. We need another high-impact arm in the bullpen. I think Varland's best shot of helping the Twins in 2024 is going to be as a backend bullpen guy the last couple months of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah, Soto has given them quite the shot in the arm.

They are giving the least number of ABs of any team in the majors to replacement level or worse players......they just don't have bad players getting at bats this year. Yes, Soto is a HUGE help, but they don't currently have weaknesses at the plate.

[joefish]

3 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

his problem ..as with all Minn pitchers is that they live in the middle of the plate.. no they dont walk many..but, they are just not too smart..such as throwing meatballs to the likes of Judge, Stanton..and grooving 0-2 count pitches. they believe their 92-93-94 mph fastballs will get misses..well, newsflash..they do not

I know Scott Baker was not the first good pitcher to jump out ahead of hitters with 0-2 counts, and not be able to put the hitters away, but it opened my eyes to it. I see it now, again. Gotta find a way to put major league hitters away. 0-2 meatballs don't work in the ML.

[jimbo92107]

7 hours ago, Muppet said:

This is all fine and well, but doesn't Paddack actually need to be injured to be placed on the IL? While every player in the MLB could potentially have one injury or another, it seemed that MLB was going to crack down with Eppler. Or maybe that was a special case?

There doesn't seem to be a limit to the semi-nonsensical diagnoses that give excuses to rest a player. "Arm fatigue" is as vague as anything. Isn't that used fairly often?

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

There doesn't seem to be a limit to the semi-nonsensical diagnoses that give excuses to rest a player. "Arm fatigue" is as vague as anything. Isn't that used fairly often?

Arm and shoulder fatigue can be legitimate issues. Just like lifting back to back days when you can tell your muscles just aren't responding the way they should.

Whether or not the Phantom IL trip gets triggered probably depends a lot on the player's opinion. If Paddack doesn't agree there's any fatigue issue, it'd be a red flag. The Phantom IL debacle was set off by players complaining that teams were manipulating the rosters by creating fake injuries or putting people on 10 or 15 day IL trips for an injury or issue which only required a couple of days to address.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Muppet said:

This is all fine and well, but doesn't Paddack actually need to be injured to be placed on the IL? While every player in the MLB could potentially have one injury or another, it seemed that MLB was going to crack down with Eppler. Or maybe that was a special case?

Tired arm ….. arm strain……bad back…….he “could” have a whole bunch of things bothering him.

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Tired arm ….. arm strain……bad back…….he “could” have a whole bunch of things bothering him.

Sure, the Twins could make some stuff up. Of course, all teams in MLB were just put on notice regarding the Phantom IL trend. The Phantom IL debacle with the Mets just got their GM banned from baseball for a year.