NFL Draft Day 2024

[nicksaviking]

Alright, a day early, but I'm excited and ready for action. Who ya'll want?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Gotta say, I'm hoping for Drake Maye to be a Viking. I don't know how much I want to articulate beyond that, but getting a guy that they believe in at QB is what I am hoping to see. Anyone else?

[nicksaviking]

I like Daniels, Maye, McCarthy in that order though the likelihood of landing them is surely in reverse order.

But I think all of them have the potential needed.

[Vanimal46]

I like all 6 top QB prospects at a certain price. Maye I think is the best fit for the scheme with the highest upside. Really hope we trade with NE and get him. Williams and Daniels appear locked in at 1 and 2. I have them and Maye in a tier together as Pro-Bowl/All-Pro potential. 

McCarthy I’d do a small trade up for or just risk he falls to 11. He’s not a guy I’d give up the farm for like Maye. I can’t get past him not being a focal point at Michigan. The people that crunch the tape say he did great on 3rd downs and clutch plays but I’m just not sold.

Penix and Nix IMO are 2nd round or later QBs. I’m not gonna be thrilled if they are drafted by the Vikings.  

[gunnarthor]

Ideal - McCarthy drops to us at 11 and we get a shutdown corner at 23 (the guy from Toledo).

Realistic - I think we trade up to get McCarthy and it costs us both first round picks. 

[wabene]

Ideally they stand pat and one of the top four QBs drops to eleven, then a DT at 23. This will be a fun one to watch and maybe the predicted hot run on QBs isn't so hot. 

[Mike Sixel]

My fantasy is a top four QB and the second best DT . 

My expectation is a QB and hope.

[Mike Sixel]

I said at the beginning 5-6 QBs go round 1, and I stand by that. Someone will trade back into round 1, or a team with an older QB will take Penix in the 20s....maybe even teens. Nix? I think he goes late round 2 when someone trades back in to take him. But he could go in the beginning of round 2 (Giants?).

[yeahyabetcha]

I rank them Trevor Lawrence #1, followed by Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Max Jones.  

Oh wait, that was the last super duper QB class.

[wabene]

Exactly, don't trade up

[nicksaviking]

51 minutes ago, wabene said:

Exactly, don't trade up

Even if the fans are up for it, no way Kwesi survives if he misses on all the QBs and the team struggles in 2024. 

Especially if the reports that he wanted to trade back again last year and O'Connell put his foot down and forced the team to draft Addison, the only good pick made in the last two years.

I've accepted the idea that Kwesi will be desperate and get fleeced.

[wabene]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if the fans are up for it, no way Kwesi survives if he misses on all the QBs and the team struggles in 2024. 

Especially if the reports that he wanted to trade back again last year and O'Connell put his foot down and forced the team to draft Addison, the only good pick made in the last two years.

I've accepted the idea that Kwesi will be desperate and get fleeced.

Let this one come to you. You've already invested in what you think is a deep draft. Let others reach and over pay. Pick up the best available at both picks.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Let this one come to you. You've already invested in what you think is a deep draft. Let others reach and over pay. Pick up the best available at both picks.

Well you're not turning around the franchise and competing for championships without a top QB so letting the other teams dictate your fate probably doesn't work too often since they all want you to fail. Unless Darnold turns into a stud, I'm not sure how the GM keeps his job whiffing on the QBs, shrugging his shoulders and saying, sorry, the price was too steep. With a young QB you buy yourself some leash to develop him, without one, you're getting blamed for pinning your hopes on a QB on his fourth team in four years.

Also, I doubt Jefferson wants to stay without a long term QB solution now.

And all that stubbornness about trying to get a non-competitive team into the playoffs last year is what is causing the high trade prices. One fewer win and the Vikings are picking 6th ahead of the Giants. They could have all but guaranteed getting a QB without sacrificing painful additional picks.

[wabene]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Well you're not turning around the franchise and competing for championships without a top QB so letting the other teams dictate your fate probably doesn't work too often since they all want you to fail. Unless Darnold turns into a stud, I'm not sure how the GM keeps his job whiffing on the QBs, shrugging his shoulders and saying, sorry, the price was too steep. With a young QB you buy yourself some leash to develop him, without one, you're getting blamed for pinning your hopes on a QB on his fourth team in four years.

Also, I doubt Jefferson wants to stay without a long term QB solution now.

And all that stubbornness about trying to get a non-competitive team into the playoffs last year is what is causing the high trade prices. One fewer win and the Vikings are picking 6th ahead of the Giants. They could have all but guaranteed getting a QB without sacrificing painful additional picks.

You are acting like one of these teams knows which quarterbacks will succeed and which won't. On draft Day prices will be inflated. Any advantage you think you have gained by trading for high picks in this draft you think is deep will be lost by paying them. Surely the astute picker will let others flail about.

Edit: What do I know? They could trade up with multiple firsts, get, Maye or whomever and ride him to the promised land without anyone remembering what they gave up. I also agree that the middling approach has gotten them nowhere, it is time for a splash. 

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, wabene said:

You are acting like one of these teams knows which quarterbacks will succeed and which won't. On draft Day prices will be inflated. Any advantage you think you have gained by trading for high picks in this draft you think is deep will be lost by paying them. Surely the astute picker will let others flail about.

It's a given that any trade up will be an overpay, but these teams have scouting departments and long evaluations for a reason. Only an incompetent team would say, "Eh, they're all basically the same." There is literally no reason for scouts or even a GM if you're just picking these guys like donuts.

But I'm not sure what you're suggesting. It sounds like you're saying the Vikings should stand pat and take what QB is left at 11. Do you mean Nix and Penix? Because while I've seen some mocks showing one of the top QBs falling to 11, most do not.

[wabene]

I have a feeling that one of the top four will drop, but, again, what do I know? Again I'll say I don't think anyone has proven they know which quarterback in a given year will pop. Sure the odds are slightly better the higher you pick. 

I also wouldn't be surprised if all four top QBs are gone by eleven, they pick Pennix (or Nix), say that is who they wanted all along, then that QB proves them right (or wrong, lol).

Best case for me still is a QB and a DT in the first round. They have a gaping canyon in the middle of their slate of picks and a talent deficit on the roster.

[nicksaviking]

I'd like to hang on to all the picks, but if they miss on the top four QBs by doing so, I won't be happy. If they come away with Nix or Penix they'll SAY that was the guy they wanted all along, but I wouldn't believe them for a second.

[gunnarthor]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

It's a given that any trade up will be an overpay, but these teams have scouting departments and long evaluations for a reason. Only an incompetent team would say, "Eh, they're all basically the same." There is literally no reason for scouts or even a GM if you're just picking these guys like donuts.

But I'm not sure what you're suggesting. It sounds like you're saying the Vikings should stand pat and take what QB is left at 11. Do you mean Nix and Penix? Because while I've seen some mocks showing one of the top QBs falling to 11, most do not.

Depends on the overpay and the player. Frankly, I don't think Maye is going to be the next big thing, some of the scouting videos we've seen have really soured me on him. I think Williams and McCarthy will end up with the best long careers and Daniels could end up being the best player but he could also be destroyed by the coaching, depending on where he lands. I think NE is a horrific fate for any of these QBs right now and if the Giants take one ... ouch. 

But you've been particularly hard to nail down on pretty much everything. You've said we need a franchise QB but have waffled on who exactly - besides Mahomes - is a franchise QB. You've said that no price is too big to pick up a franchise QB but that's just hindsight. If the Vikes give up 3 first rounders and Addison to get Maye and he turns out to be a HOFer, you'll be "it was worth it" but if they give up three first rounders and Addison and he's Ryan Leaf, you'll say it was the dumbest trade of all time (and it would be). So figuring out what a realistic price is is a big part of today. From the reports out of NE, they won't trade out. So the Vikings will be getting the fourth QB - most likely McCarthy - with either a trade up or him falling. I think he falls to 11 b/c I don't think the Raiders and Broncos will jump us in line. But it could happen. 

I like our current FO/coaching staff. They seem to have a plan on what the team should look like and have gotten us out of cap hell pretty quickly and added some nice talent to our roster. Obviously, QB is a hole right now and it'll most likely get addressed in the draft today but I don't think they'll do a Hershel Walker trade and if that's the price, they'll skip it.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Depends on the overpay and the player. Frankly, I don't think Maye is going to be the next big thing, some of the scouting videos we've seen have really soured me on him. I think Williams and McCarthy will end up with the best long careers and Daniels could end up being the best player but he could also be destroyed by the coaching, depending on where he lands. I think NE is a horrific fate for any of these QBs right now and if the Giants take one ... ouch. 

But you've been particularly hard to nail down on pretty much everything. You've said we need a franchise QB but have waffled on who exactly - besides Mahomes - is a franchise QB. You've said that no price is too big to pick up a franchise QB but that's just hindsight. If the Vikes give up 3 first rounders and Addison to get Maye and he turns out to be a HOFer, you'll be "it was worth it" but if they give up three first rounders and Addison and he's Ryan Leaf, you'll say it was the dumbest trade of all time (and it would be). So figuring out what a realistic price is is a big part of today. From the reports out of NE, they won't trade out. So the Vikings will be getting the fourth QB - most likely McCarthy - with either a trade up or him falling. I think he falls to 11 b/c I don't think the Raiders and Broncos will jump us in line. But it could happen. 

I like our current FO/coaching staff. They seem to have a plan on what the team should look like and have gotten us out of cap hell pretty quickly and added some nice talent to our roster. Obviously, QB is a hole right now and it'll most likely get addressed in the draft today but I don't think they'll do a Hershel Walker trade and if that's the price, they'll skip it.

I'm not asking for a specific QB, because you're right, I don't know who will be good long term.

I am asking them to try though. I understand the risk, if they get one of the top four guys and he busts, I won't hold it against them. And O'Connell is one I'd trust most about judging them, so I'd want one of the guys he's banging the table for. Even if it's overpaying to trade up. However, I haven't seen any scenario where the price was three 1sts AND Addison though.

But really, my posts above were mostly just ruminating on Adofo-Mensah's thought process. He has to be thinking that if they miss out one the top four guys and have to go with Nix/Penix, he might get an extra year's leash, but if they don't immediately pay off, everyone will blame him for not going after QB X who's now a good QB. If he gets none of them and they loose with Darnold, I don't think he survives next year. So all I'm really saying is that I think Adofo-Mensah is going to be in desperation mode, and if he is, that's obviously not a great situation for the Vikings. I wouldn't be surprised if he swings a deal that even I get disgusted at. 

[gunnarthor]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not asking for a specific QB, because you're right, I don't know who will be good long term.

I am asking them to try though. I understand the risk, if they get one of the top four guys and he busts, I won't hold it against them. And O'Connell is one I'd trust most about judging them, so I'd want one of the guys he's banging the table for. Even if it's overpaying to trade up. However, I haven't seen any scenario where the price was three 1sts AND Addison though.

But really, my posts above were mostly just ruminating on Adofo-Mensah's thought process. He has to be thinking that if they miss out one the top four guys and have to go with Nix/Penix, he might get an extra year's leash, but if they don't immediately pay off, everyone will blame him for not going after QB X who's now a good QB. If he gets none of them and they loose with Darnold, I don't think he survives next year. So all I'm really saying is that I think Adofo-Mensah is going to be in desperation mode, and if he is, that's obviously not a great situation for the Vikings. I wouldn't be surprised if he swings a deal that even I get disgusted at. 

Fair enough. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

What is a more probable Minnesota sports thing to happen?

1) They stick at 11 and 23, take bpa (one probably being a qb) and roll with it. (Maybe it "works" or maybe it doesn't, but most likely this doesn't end in a super bowl over the next 5 years right?)

2) They trade an enormous amount of draft capital for a QB they want, and it is exciting. They go on to win the super bowl in 2027.

3) They trade an enormous amount of draft capital for a QB they want, and it is exciting. By 2029, people don't talk about the Herschel Walker trade anymore, they talk about the Maye/McCarthy/Daniels trade.

Historical Minnesota sports aside, will there be anything but schadenfreude from this draft? I'd like to say I hope not, but I guess we will find out.

That said, I want them to get and get their guy too, just like others have mentioned here. You have to try, right?

[nicksaviking]

Random draft thought: If the Giants truly want a QB, the Vikings are screwed, as trading back to 6 is a heck of a lot easier to swallow for teams than trading back to 11.

However, if the Giants actually want a WR, then they have a vested interest in making everyone think they want a QB so as to get other teams to swap picks with AZ and/or LAC, who very likely would take Harrison and Nabors before they fall to the Giants.

[wabene]

Whatever happens this draft has me and others I know excited enough to watch it. As much as Kirko grew on me, he had his chance and now is the time to take a swing and see what O'Connel can do with it. This could be a fun year. Darnold is a wildcard.

[Mike Sixel]

My biggest issue with this draft is I don't trust the GM at all

[Vanimal46]

I’m expecting pure chaos tonight. Starting with us trading to the top 5 for one of Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy. 

[nicksaviking]

Just occurred to me, why isn't anyone mocking Michael Penix to the Seahawks at 16? They just hired the OC from the U of Washington to run their offense. Even if they actually have no interest, the obvious connection is there and no one believes Geno Smith is their long term QB.

[Danchat]

Here is my final mock:

 

I'm calling the Giants' bluff on McCarthy, but I still think they need to move up to avoid the Broncos from poaching him. After that happens, the Broncos move down to gain capital and get their backup plan in Nix. Then the Vikings move down from #23 as they should still be able to land Newton or Darius Robinson at #31. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Just occurred to me, why isn't anyone mocking Michael Penix to the Seahawks at 16? They just hired the OC from the U of Washington to run their offense. Even if they actually have no interest, the obvious connection is there and no one believes Geno Smith is their long term QB.

Almost certain I've seen it more than once....or maybe headlines in the OR and SEA papers?

[nicksaviking]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Almost certain I've seen it more than once....or maybe headlines in the OR and SEA papers?

Seems too obvious for it not to be out there. Certainly I've just missed those.

But I suppose that's more your neck of the woods in the Pacific Northwest.

[Vanimal46]

34 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Here is my final mock:

 

I'm calling the Giants' bluff on McCarthy, but I still think they need to move up to avoid the Broncos from poaching him. After that happens, the Broncos move down to gain capital and get their backup plan in Nix. Then the Vikings move down from #23 as they should still be able to land Newton or Darius Robinson at #31. 

If the trade up to 3 proves to be too much, then I certainly see this scenario playing out. For Maye’s sake, I hope New England passes on him and the other top QBs. I see their organization the same way as Carolina last year. There’s no infrastructure in place to make him successful.