Minnesota Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Catcher ERA isn't used or reported any more because the catcher has as much control over ERA as a pitcher has control over wins. The Twins went 14-18 in Sonny Gray starts and 16-13 in Joe Ryan starts. Nowadays we're able to actually analyze most of the catcher's contributions via framing/blocking/preventing steals. I imagine some smart folks are working on a 'game calling' or pitch sequencing metric, but that probably gets tricky with intended pitch location.

Anyway, to answer your question yes you can still find catcher ERA. It's buried on individual baseball reference player pages under "Advanced Fielding". 

Jeffers had a 3.61 cERA and Vazquez had a 4.09. 

Agreed there are a lot of factors that go into Catcher ERA to put too much stock into the stat and I am sure that there are advanced metrics used internally that would be much more reliable measures. 

However... there is always one thing that I can't dismiss with cERA.

Since defense is all about run prevention.

Since the catcher plays such a big role in team defense, pitch sequence, advanced scouting, pitcher psychiatrist, quarterbacking the infield cuts, framing, blocking, steals and all of those things.

Since often times managers will choose to sacrifice offense at the position for defense because of the hard to measure value of those things.    

Since run production can be sacrificed and justified for run prevention at the catcher position. 

At the very very least... Jeffers 3.61 cERA and Vazquez 4.09 cERA can at least show that the run prevention wheels didn't fall of the tracks with Jeffers behind the dish. 

Analysis beyond that... I'll leave for those who do this for a living. Jeffers did just fine behind the dish in my opinion. 

[stringer bell]

Agree with @Riverbrian 100%. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed there are a lot of factors that go into Catcher ERA to put too much stock into the stat and I am sure that there are advanced metrics used internally that would be much more reliable measures. 

However... there is always one thing that I can't dismiss with cERA.

Since defense is all about run prevention.

Since the catcher plays such a big role in team defense, pitch sequence, advanced scouting, pitcher psychiatrist, quarterbacking the infield cuts, framing, blocking, steals and all of those things.

Since often times managers will choose to sacrifice offense at the position for defense because of the hard to measure value of those things.   

Since run production can be sacrificed and justified for run prevention at the catcher position. 

At the very very least... Jeffers 3.61 cERA and Vazquez 4.09 cERA can at least show that the run prevention wheels didn't fall of the tracks with Jeffers behind the dish. 

Analysis beyond that... I'll leave for those who do this for a living. Jeffers did just fine behind the dish in my opinion. 

The big reason I don't particularly care for cERA is that catchers don't really get to choose who is pitching. Sometimes a great pitcher will choose to have one specific catcher for all his games and they should get some credit for that, but that doesn't happen too often.

Twins pitchers & # of games caught by each catcher:

Lopez - Jeffers caught 14 games with a 2.89 ERA to Vazquez's 18 games of 4.25 ERA (.281 BABIP for Jeffers to .342 for Vazquez)

Gray - Jeffers caught 16 games with a 2.92 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 2.65 ERA

Ryan - Jeffers caught 13 games with a 3.20 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 5.75 ERA (Vazquez caught 6 of the 7 games when Joe was hiding his groin injury, 9 of Jeffers' games were caught before that injury)

Ober - Jeffers caught 12 games with a 3.36 ERA to Vazquez's 14 games of 3.49 ERA

Maeda - Jeffers caught 7 games with a 3.86 ERA to Vazquez's 14 games of 4.41 ERA

Varland - Jeffers caught 8 games with a 2.96 ERA to Vazquez's 8 games of 5.75 ERA *Note that Jeffers only caught Louie 3 times when he was a starter (3.57 ERA in those starts) and Vazquez only caught Louie once when he was a reliever (0 ER)

Keuchel - Jeffers caught games 5 with a 6.64 ERA to Vazquez's 5 games of 5.19 ERA

Mahle - Jeffers caught 2 games with a 3.65 ERA to Vazquez's 3 games of 2.70 ERA

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Sanchez was the primary catcher in 2022; from his stats it was his first year of improved defense over past years.

 Sanchez was never intended to become the primary catcher, he became one by default in Jeffers absence.

[jorgenswest]

I am glad to have both catchers. @Shaitan makes a good point about Vazquez helped make Jeffers better. We need both. I am also glad to have Camargo in reserve.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

The big reason I don't particularly care for cERA is that catchers don't really get to choose who is pitching. Sometimes a great pitcher will choose to have one specific catcher for all his games and they should get some credit for that, but that doesn't happen too often.

Twins pitchers & # of games caught by each catcher:

Lopez - Jeffers caught 14 games with a 2.89 ERA to Vazquez's 18 games of 4.25 ERA (.281 BABIP for Jeffers to .342 for Vazquez)

Gray - Jeffers caught 16 games with a 2.92 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 2.65 ERA

Ryan - Jeffers caught 13 games with a 3.20 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 5.75 ERA (Vazquez caught 6 of 7 games when Joe was hiding his groin injury, 9 of Jeffers' games were caught before that injury)

Ober - Jeffers caught 12 games with a 3.36 ERA to Vazquez's 14 games of 3.49 ERA

Maeda - Jeffers caught 7 games with a 3.86 ERA to Vazquez's 14 games of 4.41 ERA

Varland - Jeffers caught 8 games with a 2.96 ERA to Vazquez's 8 games of 5.75 ERA *Note that Jeffers only caught Louie 3 times when he was a starter (3.57 ERA in those starts) and Vazquez only caught Louie once when he was a reliever (0 ER)

Keuchel - Jeffers caught games with a 2.92 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 2.65 ERA

Great post. Substance, alternate view points beyond the owners are cheap and manager is the worst ever. You'll be one of those posters that I take seriously on this site. 

I agree... Catchers don't get to choose who is on the mound. Not to mention that cERA and just plain ole ERA is going to be influenced by big bad innings of a 7 spot with one out retired which is going to be influenced by the lucky bounce. 

However, in the end... as the sample increases by using all pitchers over the course of a season... stabilization increases and with that stabilization, you may not find the absolute truth but at least a nugget of truth. 

I don't put a lot of stock in cERA either for all the reasons that you correctly list but... I will let the nugget of truth confirm for me what I already believe: 

Jeffers was not a defensive issue behind the plate. I think it is OK to let his superior offense shine without defense worry diminishing it.    

 

  

[RpR]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Sanchez was never intended to become the primary catcher, he became one by default in Jeffers absence.

Does not matter, Sanchez was primary, and from defense results, that was a good thing.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I believe that combined Jeffers and Vazquez will be about the same as last year (or better).  I agree with all of your other points, especially the comment  “we lost Sonny Gray & all is lost”.  The Twins record when Sonny pitched was 14-18, 6 times Sonny left with the lead but there was a blown save (Twins came back to win 2 of the 6).  The run support for Sonny was awful 3.7 runs per game.  In four of his games the Twins scored 35 runs, in the other 28 they scored 84 (3 runs per game with 18 games being 3 runs or less).  In my opinion the Twins will have a better BP and will score more runs than last year.

As a point of reference San Francisco was 9-9 in DeSclafana's 18 starts last year with only one BS and 4.6 runs support per game,  It is very possible DS or whoever is the 5th starter could match the 14-18 record.  The postseason is another story, we could trade for an arm at the deadline, but our record in these trades is awful.   JMHO GLTA

 

Gray obviously deserved better run support!!

The outcomes are what we are trying to replace…….Gray maybe 15–19 including playoffs? Anyway, I think Varland/DeScla/Festa/SWR can pitch 220 innings and have a .500 record with a few more runs and a better Pen. The ERA may not match up but the wins should be reasonable.

Come playoffs……Ryan & Lopez can give a team a chance into the 5th inning in their starts. Ober could go 7 or could go 3 depending upon his command. I really like Paddack/Varland/Canterino as parts of the Playoff Pen. We’ll see who performs in the Pen through the year & who’s hot in September……………I think the current staff can get it done.

[mikelink45]

My hope for the 2024 season is that carmago demonstrate cities ready for the number two position. With earlier posts about the twins payroll and not wanting to go up and the future. Vasquez and Kepler are the two primary contracts that I can see being eliminated to keep the remainder of the team and the payroll rank. But there's only works if we have another acceptable catcher for the second position

[jkcarew]

If Vasquez can give us an 85-ish OPS+ (his career average), it sure would give us some breathing room regarding any Jeffers regression.

To me, seemed like there was some real improvement with Jeffers beyond the high BABiP. Hope that proves to be the case.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

The big reason I don't particularly care for cERA is that catchers don't really get to choose who is pitching. Sometimes a great pitcher will choose to have one specific catcher for all his games and they should get some credit for that, but that doesn't happen too often.

Twins pitchers & # of games caught by each catcher:

Lopez - Jeffers caught 14 games with a 2.89 ERA to Vazquez's 18 games of 4.25 ERA (.281 BABIP for Jeffers to .342 for Vazquez)

Gray - Jeffers caught 16 games with a 2.92 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 2.65 ERA

Ryan - Jeffers caught 13 games with a 3.20 ERA to Vazquez's 16 games of 5.75 ERA (Vazquez caught 6 of the 7 games when Joe was hiding his groin injury, 9 of Jeffers' games were caught before that injury)

Ober - Jeffers caught 12 games with a 3.36 ERA to Vazquez's 14 games of 3.49 ERA

Maeda - Jeffers caught 7 games with a 3.86 ERA to Vazquez's 14 games of 4.41 ERA

Varland - Jeffers caught 8 games with a 2.96 ERA to Vazquez's 8 games of 5.75 ERA *Note that Jeffers only caught Louie 3 times when he was a starter (3.57 ERA in those starts) and Vazquez only caught Louie once when he was a reliever (0 ER)

Keuchel - Jeffers caught games 5 with a 6.64 ERA to Vazquez's 5 games of 5.19 ERA

Mahle - Jeffers caught 2 games with a 3.65 ERA to Vazquez's 3 games of 2.70 ERA

Mahle - Gray - Ober are all essentially a wash……seems to denote that they didn’t affect the ERA as catchers.

Lopez struggled early in year more often - no accounting here for opponents (good/bad) - again, I think they both call a good game and the spikes here attributed to one or the other catcher is probably due to pitcher’s performance.