Examining the Fringe of the 2024 Twins 40-Man Roster

[Schmoeman5]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I doubt the 40 man has all of these players on April 15th.

Because they won't have their taxes done?

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

@Cody Christie, how do you categorize Jose Miranda and Bubba Thompson among the hitters. The latter, in particular, seems like he could be on the list above. What is the option status on them?

My list was getting long and I was trying to limit who made the cut. There are certainly other hitters on the fringes, but I also didn't want to have a 1/4 of the 40-man roster considered for this piece. 

Miranda: 1 Option Remaining
Thompson: 2 Options Remaining
Larnach: 1 Option Remaining

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Great post.

Btw, let’s look at this year’s presumptive (as of today - of course lots could still happen) opening day lineup:

2B Julien (L)

3B Lewis (R)

DH Polanco (SW)

CF Buxton (R)

RF Kepler (L)

C Jeffers (R)

LF Wallner (L)

1B Kiriloff (L)

SS Correa (R)

Correa and Kepler are the only two returning starters in the field. With Buxton now in CF, there are six new hitters.

I like 2024’s lineup over 2023’s.

 

 

I like it better to... However... we do have the advantage of 2023 numbers to guide those feelings much like we had 2022 numbers to guide how we felt about 2023 in the offseason. Those numbers in 2022 shifted in 2023 and it is reasonable to assume shifting will happen from 2023 to 2024 and not all of those shifts will be positive. 

I like that we have the depth to provide alternatives for injuries and poor performance so we are not forced to die by those things. I think we will need the depth... actually... I'm pretty sure we will need it.

I have some concerns: 

Performance Consistency Concerns: 

Julien and Wallner had a strong 2023... so did Miranda in 2022. Lot of players take a step down in year two. It happened to Miranda. Julien and Wallner are not out of the woods. 

I know I say this a lot but Julien and Wallner did not face left handed pitchers last year. Kirilloff was also not allowed to face left handers last year. This is a big deal! If they start facing left handers... what happens? I think they should face left handers for development sake and I have said it often... please... please let them get some AB's against portsiders... but... even as I support that as loudly as I do... what happens? If they can't hit left handers... the overall numbers are going to come down.

If they can't hit left handers or are not allowed to hit left handers... you can't look at them as a checked box. Can't trade Polanco because Julien is only there for 50% of the AB's. Bottom line is that they won't be getting 500 AB's this year unless they can hit left handers or at the very least... allowed to hit left handers.    

Kepler was below average for 2 and a half years prior to his very impressive post all-star break performance. I think below average is a kind way to put it... I think it's more accurate to say... 'not major league worthy". I'd like to think he has fixed whatever caused that 2.5 year slump. I hope so... but I won't be shocked to see him struggling again.  

Jeffers struggled in 2022 enough that the Twins spent 30 million for Vazquez. Vazquez started the season starting two games out of three. He hit bad enough that he is also a question mark. 

Buxton and Correa... Both those guys had bad years last year. It shook me confidence in both. I think they will be back and back strong in 2024 but they were certainly not back strong in 2023. 

Don't get me wrong... as I list the above concerns it may sound like I'm being negative but the truth is... I'm really more positive because I think we have the depth to plug holes as they develop. I'm just pointing out some places where the holes could develop. 

I have no offensive concerns with Lewis and Polanco. I think they will both hit when they are in uniform. As long as they stay healthy and that leads to:

Health Concerns:

Lewis, Buxton and Kirilloff have career long health issues. I can't imagine any of those 3 staying off the Disabled List because they never have.    

Polanco has added some injury concern to resume. So has Correa with the Giants and Mets passing on his medicals and is Planter injury last year. Not to mention... everyone is a healthy concern... it's 162 games. 

That was a long answer just to agree with you. I do like the 2024 lineup better than the 2023. 

I still want one more BIG bat. 

 

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

• In that scenario, Balazovic gets the No. 8 bullpen spot until he either pitches himself up the chain of command or out of the organization, followed by one of the guys above. 

I will take the waiver wire over Balazovic for the last spot in the bullpen.

[stringer bell]

While I agree almost totally with Brian's post above, I still think the priority is on the mound. It is pretty close to inevitable that at least one of the projected five starters will be on the IL. Last year, the Twins had relatively good health, but Mahle missed almost the whole year, Maeda missed over a month and Ryan missed about three weeks. With Ober in reserve and Louis Varland behind him, the Twins received competent pitching a great majority of the time. Going seven deep should be the minimum and the Twins look pretty shaky after five. 

Regarding getting plate appearances for the guys who were platooned, that is why I really don't want to see the Twins get a first base or corner outfield right handed bat. It then provides a rationale for platooning either/or Wallner and Kirilloff and Julien. I would hope all three get increased opportunities against southpaws and respond with better production. Wallner had 18.1% of his plate appearances vs. left handers, Kirilloff 17.6% and Julien 11.8 %.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

While I agree almost totally with Brian's post above, I still think the priority is on the mound. It is pretty close to inevitable that at least one of the projected five starters will be on the IL. Last year, the Twins had relatively good health, but Mahle missed almost the whole year, Maeda missed over a month and Ryan missed about three weeks. With Ober in reserve and Louis Varland behind him, the Twins received competent pitching a great majority of the time. Going seven deep should be the minimum and the Twins look pretty shaky after five. 

Regarding getting plate appearances for the guys who were platooned, that is why I really don't want to see the Twins get a first base or corner outfield right handed bat. It then provides a rationale for platooning either/or Wallner and Kirilloff and Julien. I would hope all three get increased opportunities against southpaws and respond with better production. Wallner had 18.1% of his plate appearances vs. left handers, Kirilloff 17.6% and Julien 11.8 %.

Don't get me wrong... I'd like a starter as well for the very reason you mention. All teams need what you talk about in that first paragraph. They all need starters beyond 5... and way beyond 5. 

But if I had to choose between the two and with the broadcast money as such and the lack of activity in late January... it certainly feels like I have to choose between the two. 

I'd take a hitter. 

I just feel that pitching is going to take a step back no matter what the front office does. The depth that both you and I want is going to have to come from the guys rising up the system. SWR, Festa and others we may not be talking about right now. 

If the pitching is going to take a step back and I think it will because repeating what they did last year will be hard to do... if not impossible... even if they add Corbin Burnes to the rotation. Our team ERA was pretty stellar last year. It'll be hard to match... if not impossible.  

Taking a cue from the Rangers... I'd like to load up on offense. Time it with Correa and Buxton coming back strong and see if the bats can overcome what should still be a competitive pitching staff but not as good as what we got last year. 

The Rangers had a 4.28 team ERA last year and a 3.83 in the post season. They had a lineup 1 through 9 that overcame it. 

[Rosterman]

Carmargo is a nice depth piece who should egt regular play at St. Paul to really prove his worth. Can he call a game, hold runners, and continue to hit for power? Right now, he is the best catcher. ANd onlyt needed if something happens to the two in the majors. 

Canterino, Rodriguez, Martin all have future potential. Unless Martin shines, and Buxton doesn't play in centerfield, I expect those three, along with Severino, to showcase their work in the minors. The biggest question is where you play Martin? And where do the Twins play Larnach? Severino will play first, some third, and hopefully hit and become either the DH of the future, or a solid tradechip.

I look at the batch of Balazovic, Jensen, Sands Staumont, Winder and Gordon, and even possibly Headrick, as not being anywhere on the Twins 40-man come next off-season, which means they sink or swim by how they play for their future in baseball today. Balazovic and Gordon are out of options and will probably be given every chance to shine, although if I was the Twins I would be dangling either in some sort of trade package. Yes, all COULD play at the major league level and contribute in some way. They are on the 40-man have had time in the majors, so that is their one plus.

[KBJ1]

I like Gordon, but Castro is even more versatile and makes Gordon redundant.

Sands, Balazovic, Winder? God help us if that's all we have and they end up on the roster. Trade someone for a bona fide closer or even more for a controllable #2 SP.

We need a RH power bat for LF (a 5 tool guy like Gurriel would have been great) and sign Lewis to a long term deal NOW!