Joe Ryan and the Difference Between Accuracy and Precision - Caretaker Exclusive

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

It’s often said that baseball is a game of inches. Perhaps no pitcher better illustrates that than Joe Ryan.

Joe Ryan—acquired the summer before in exchange for fan favorite Nelson Cruz—burst onto the scene in 2022, thanks largely to his unique arm slot and heavy four-seam fastball usage. A hair over 60% of his offerings in 2022 were heaters, a number generally reserved for fireballing relievers; that number dropped only incrementally (to 56.9%) in 2023, thanks to increased reliance on a new splitter (27.2%) and sweeper 11.3%).

Despite possessing a relatively poor spin rate (2216 RPM in 2023, 415th of the 648 pitchers with at least 10 plate appearances ending with the pitch) and movement profile (10.3-inch horizontal break, 17.6-inch vertical; each below 50th percentile league-wide), Ryan generates whiffs by attacking the top of the zone with his heat, leveraging his high spin efficiency (96%) in combination with a 5-foot vertical release point and trebuchet-like arm action to hide the ball until release. The result is one of MLB’s most valuable and underrated fastballs, worth 33 runs over his 335 career innings.

 
However, something changed in 2023. See if you can spot the result in the chart below. 

YEAR	xBA	xWOBA	xSLG	xERA	ERA	MPH	SPIN	2B/3B	HR
2022	.200	.300	.377	3.57	3.55	92.0	2194	11	9
2023	.208	.274	.381	3.53	4.51	92.3	2216	15	19

Ryan’s home run per fly ball rate on fastballs ballooned from 9.5% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2023. The good news is that his expected stats stayed steady, which is suggestive that plain ol’ bad luck played a major role in Ryan’s metamorphosis from arguable All-Star snub to untrusted in the playoffs. That's why Cody Pirkl wrote, this weekend, that there's hope for a bounceback from Ryan in 2024. (His home run problems were particularly punishing after the All-Star Game, as he surrendered 16 in a mere 54 ⅔ innings to go along with a not-nice 6.09 ERA.)

But waving away Ryan’s misfortunes solely to luck lacks rigor, nuance...and truth.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

It is a big year for Ryan. If he can pitch a full season that looks like his March-June results from 2023, that replaces the production that Gray had last year (and possibly even then some, as Ryan threw more innings than Gray during that time period last year.) 

I'm curious what he is doing this offseason with the help of driveline and others. Adding the sweeper helped a bit it seems, but his fastball/split combo was so devastating for the first portion of the year.

Thanks for the writeup! It was great!

[Karbo]

Driveline could be the answer to the shape of his pitches. Think that would help his sweeper and probably the change up. But I think the article is right about his angle and release point.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It is a big year for Ryan. If he can pitch a full season that looks like his March-June results from 2023, that replaces the production that Gray had last year (and possibly even then some, as Ryan threw more innings than Gray during that time period last year.) 

I'm curious what he is doing this offseason with the help of driveline and others. Adding the sweeper helped a bit it seems, but his fastball/split combo was so devastating for the first portion of the year.

Thanks for the writeup! It was great!

Thanks! I know he was back at Driveline a month or so ago. I imagine we'll hear/see what he was tinkering on come Spring Training. I'd imagine altering his grip a bit on the sweeper and splitter to induce more movement would be the main focus.

[ashbury]

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Validity and reliability, love it! 

Are we going to have to sign up to be caretakers, and read the article, to understand what you are referencing here? 

(Please say ‘Yes’— Yes we should all stop what we are doing and just take a moment to become TwinsDaily caretakers)

[ashbury]

59 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Are we going to have to sign up to be caretakers, and read the article, to understand what you are referencing here? 

(Please say ‘Yes’— Yes we should all stop what we are doing and just take a moment to become TwinsDaily caretakers)

After careful consideration, I am going to have to say yes.  😀

I want to add, the occasional article for Caretakers isn't the reason to support the site.  Those articles are just a small thank you to those supporters. 

 

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Looking for help here.

• Is anyone aware of any detailed analysis of Joe Ryan's pitch metrics before the injury vs the seven games after in 2023?
• Is there any evidence that the Twins should or could have been aware of to discover the injury faster than they did?
• Where would you recommend someone interested in researching this subscribe/access the data to do so?

Joe Ryan pitched a complete game shut out on June 22nd and had a 2.98. He then injured his groin before his next start, but didn't tell anyone for several weeks. His strikeouts per nine innings were not impacted, but he gave up 31 earned runs in 32.1 innings over his next seven starts before being shut down. I am curious if there was a change in spin rate, pitch speed, pitch location, etc. Was it an occasional pitch where the groin impacted him resulting in the home run spike?