Twins Video
Joe Ryan—acquired the summer before in exchange for fan favorite Nelson Cruz—burst onto the scene in 2022, thanks largely to his unique arm slot and heavy four-seam fastball usage. A hair over 60% of his offerings in 2022 were heaters, a number generally reserved for fireballing relievers; that number dropped only incrementally (to 56.9%) in 2023, thanks to increased reliance on a new splitter (27.2%) and sweeper 11.3%).
Despite possessing a relatively poor spin rate (2216 RPM in 2023, 415th of the 648 pitchers with at least 10 plate appearances ending with the pitch) and movement profile (10.3-inch horizontal break, 17.6-inch vertical; each below 50th percentile league-wide), Ryan generates whiffs by attacking the top of the zone with his heat, leveraging his high spin efficiency (96%) in combination with a 5-foot vertical release point and trebuchet-like arm action to hide the ball until release. The result is one of MLB’s most valuable and underrated fastballs, worth 33 runs over his 335 career innings.
However, something changed in 2023. See if you can spot the result in the chart below.
|
YEAR |
xBA |
xWOBA |
xSLG |
xERA |
ERA |
MPH |
SPIN |
2B/3B |
HR |
|
2022 |
.200 |
.300 |
.377 |
3.57 |
3.55 |
92.0 |
2194 |
11 |
9 |
|
2023 |
.208 |
.274 |
.381 |
3.53 |
4.51 |
92.3 |
2216 |
15 |
19 |
Ryan’s home run per fly ball rate on fastballs ballooned from 9.5% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2023. The good news is that his expected stats stayed steady, which is suggestive that plain ol’ bad luck played a major role in Ryan’s metamorphosis from arguable All-Star snub to untrusted in the playoffs. That's why Cody Pirkl wrote, this weekend, that there's hope for a bounceback from Ryan in 2024. (His home run problems were particularly punishing after the All-Star Game, as he surrendered 16 in a mere 54 ⅔ innings to go along with a not-nice 6.09 ERA.)
But waving away Ryan’s misfortunes solely to luck lacks rigor, nuance...and truth.







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