Is Ryan Jeffers Underrated?

[Doctor Gast]

21 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That umpires might unevenly affect the efficacy of framing is a good and underdiscussed point. I will say that more than one of the stat frameworks that evaluate the skill make an attempt to correct for that effect, but it's tough to do perfectly. So, I guess, is adjusting for parks and league run environments, among other things.

Me, personally: I hope the strike zone is never automated. It's part of the art of the game. Sport should be art, more than science. We lose something huge and essential when we let it go from one thing to the other. 

I'm sorry Matthew I disagree with you. I'm all in for the art of the game when it comes to stealing a base, taking an extra base, getting a great jump on a batted ball, running a great route, great AB between pitcher & hitter while both go through adjustments. Managers manage a great game by adjusting to the conditions, Picking off runners, throwing behind runners, Catchers throwing out a base stealer, calling a great game plus many other heads-up plays all are artful & legit.

Technically stealing signs, using sticky stuff & stealing strikes aren't artful & should not be legit. Why does hockey have a goal light? Don't they want to be artful? No, they just want a fair game and goals to be goals. Strikes should be strikes not be determined by fooling the ump or by umps biases based on veteran, rookie, & or team. Electronic Strike Zone will not take away from the game it'll make it fair. 

[Doctor Gast]

Jeffers was given the full catching reins in '22. He was way overmatched & was quickly overstretched, crashed & burned. '23 Jeffers was a much better catcher primarily because of Vazquez. Offensively because Vazquez was his safety net and defensively just by observing how Vazquez handled his pitchers. '24 if everything remains the same I see Jeffers regressing and Vazquez improving both offensively & defensively. If Vazquez is removed from the equation I see another crash & burn for Jeffers.

A defensive catcher takes advantage over a hitting one. where I agree with Blyleven. Jeffers doesn't have the defensive chops, or stability in either hitting or defense to ever make it into the top ten. Is Jeffers underrated? No. he's overrated by management.

[DocBauer]

As a fan, it's always nice to see a player on your team ranked amongst the best. It sounds good and gives warm fuzzies. But what I care about is how he fits in to my team, and what he does for my team, regardless of any list.

I understand the concept of pitch framing, but don't really see much value in it. Umpires miss calls that should be strikes. If a catcher can actually steal a strike here and there, it's part of the game evening out. But any sort of "stealing" a strike is kind of funny to me. I mean, it's almost as if it happens often, when in reality, it's probably a couple calls a game. And again, it probably just makes up for a couple missed calls.

To me, being a good framer means you grab the ball smoothly and secure it with a good presentation for the ump instead of being laxidasicsl or herky jerky in your approach. That's as far as I give it credence.

Is Jeffers underrated? I say yes. Underappreciated, especially by many Twins fans, ABSOLUTELY.  

Despite all the variations of defensive metrics available, actually calculating defense at any position is arbitrary at best. One statistic will say a solid, dependable SS who makes very few errors is golden. Another measurement will say said SS lacked range and another SS with more errors was better because he had more range, and got to more balls, and had more flash plays.

That being said, Jeffers has a fielding % of .995 according to Baseball Reference. Sounds good to me. His caught stealing % was a pretty bad 13% in his call up in 2020. Since then, 22%, 18%, and 25% in 2023. Up and down, but real improvement last season. He was actually around 30% for a large chunk of the year.

He was drafted as a bat first catcher who's worked really hard on his defense. He had TWO milb seasons before his promotion in 2020 as a 23yo to develop. 

He had something like 550 ML AB going in to 2023, due to the short 2020 season and one injury plagued season, and many were wanting to write him off before 2023 even began. I wouldn't be surprised if he regressed somewhat in 2024 just because his numbers were so damn good. Bit even with some regression, he figures to be an above league average offensive player with good power. Combine that with at least solid defense and good game calling and we're pretty lucky to have him as a really good, all around player. 

To me it's almost like complaining about Mauer as a tremendous defensive catcher who could hit, and get OB, etc, but he was just never good enough because he didn't hit 20 or more bombs every year. 

Can Jeffers continue to improve some defensively and smooth a few rough edges? Yes. Might his OPS drop some in 2024 while catching 60% of games? Very possibly, but he'd still be league average or better. And that's "golden" as stated by another poster. Does Jeffers need to be again in 2024 to PROVE his bat has really started to reach its potential. Yep.

But honestly, what more do you/we need or want unless he's another Rodriguez HOF backstop? He's a good game caller, solid defensively, OK as a thrower with some room for improvement, and a good and powerful bat at a position that seldom sees that. 

I think we're pretty damn lucky to have him. He'd probably be the #1 backstop on half the teams in MLB. And not yet 27yo there's still room to grow.

Again, under appreciated for sure, regardless of any sort of top 10 list.

 

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, this MLB list isn't created by people sitting in a room it's created by a computer program

... written by someone standing in a room.  Probably a hipster but I can't know.

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'll take Vazquez defense over Ryan ,

Then in 2023, you took more losses.  In Vazquez's starts at catcher the team went 44-47.

[Blyleven2011]

51 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Then in 2023, you took more losses.  In Vazquez's starts at catcher the team went 44-47.

Okay , I remember then not to go to his games he's starting  ....

Hope he is a better hitter  this coming season 

[Riverbrian]

On 1/17/2024 at 1:52 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I'm sorry Matthew I disagree with you. I'm all in for the art of the game when it comes to stealing a base, taking an extra base, getting a great jump on a batted ball, running a great route, great AB between pitcher & hitter while both go through adjustments. Managers manage a great game by adjusting to the conditions, Picking off runners, throwing behind runners, Catchers throwing out a base stealer, calling a great game plus many other heads-up plays all are artful & legit.

Technically stealing signs, using sticky stuff & stealing strikes aren't artful & should not be legit. Why does hockey have a goal light? Don't they want to be artful? No, they just want a fair game and goals to be goals. Strikes should be strikes not be determined by fooling the ump or by umps biases based on veteran, rookie, & or team. Electronic Strike Zone will not take away from the game it'll make it fair. 

Thinking that umpire mistakes is part of the charm of the game is no different than being in favor of leaving really big rocks in the infield for that crazy random bounce. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Thinking that umpire mistakes is part of the charm of the game is no different than being in favor of leaving really big rocks in the infield for that crazy random bounce. 

There are a lot of analogies that come to mind.  Why did they invoke replays if calling a runner who is safe out or calling a would be hit foul a hit if this is charming.  How an unfair call is charming is beyond me.  A blown call absolutely changes the AB and therefore the game.  Why would we want the game changed by a bad call.

It's not really the umpires fault.  The stuff pitchers are throwing up there these days is stretching the limits of human vision. The good news is that it would appear is that a lot of people recognize this is a wart on the game.  They did a good job with the latest rule changes and they will eventually get this right.  

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

There are a lot of analogies that come to mind.  Why did they invoke replays if calling a runner who is safe out or calling a would be hit foul if this is charming.  How an unfair call is charming is beyond me.  A blown call absolutely changes the AB and therefore the game.  Why would we want the game changed by a bad call.

It's not really the umpires fault.  The stuff pitchers are throwing up there these days is stretching the limits of human vision. The good news is that it would appear is that a lot of people recognize this is a wart on the game.  They did a good job with the latest rule changes and they will eventually get this right.  

Agreed 1000%

Perfection from an umpire is impossible.

I think major league umpires do an incredible job calling balls, strikes, safe or out, fair or foul. They get my respect. It's an impossible job that they do extremely well. I also think the umpires want to get the call right and if they want to get the call right... they should be happy for the electronic help. It's just a tool available for their utilization much like a clicker in their hand or a rule book to memorize. 

It's also near impossible to calculate the affect of a missed call but at the very least players will have to adapt to the mistake and the mistake is typically inconsistent. It's ok to assume that some missed calls are not game changers but then again... how do you know because that last call may have created a fastball instead of the slider and who knows what the hitter would have done with that slider. There is a difference between a 1-1 count and 0-2 count.

Also... Pitchers are not making it easy for the hitter and therefore they make it harder for the umpire. They don't throw it down the middle for the call that nobody will ever miss... The hitter will clobber that pitch. They pitch out of the zone trying to catch corners to make it harder for the hitter. They live on the edge, they are aiming for that borderline and they are good at hitting that borderline and the borderline is the location that makes the calls harder and harder for umps to call correctly.  

The pitcher is trying to make it really hard for the umps... the catchers are trying to fool the umps. The catcher fools the ump, the fans boo the ump, the managers turn their hats around so they can scream in their face. social media will replay the missed call and the car mechanics will repost and comment on the mistake. 

This is charming? 

It's the exact opposite of charming.

I get that the automation may not have been perfected yet. OK... However... a human calling balls and strikes hasn't been perfected yet either and they have been at since 1876.

1876... the very same year that Alexander Graham Bell Patented the Telephone... Let me check my Iphone 15 and see if that is correct... Yep... it was 1876. 

1876... the very same year that electric light was first exhibited. They've made some improvements since then... I think the Sphere is Las Vegas has done some interesting things with the exhibition of light. 

1876... the very same year that Marshall James Brooks cleared 6 feet in the high jump for the first time. 6 Feet will put you in 28th place in the Indiana High School boys state championship today. I randomly chose Indiana and I actually researched it to make sure that I was correct.   

When discussing a catcher... framing is not something that I want to discuss. Strike zone automation is a tool to help the umpire, I had a Timex in the 80's. now my watch tells me how much sleep I got last night. 

7 Hours and 18 Minutes. 

  

 

 

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed 1000%

Perfection from an umpire is impossible.

I think major league umpires do an incredible job calling balls, strikes, safe or out, fair or foul. They get my respect. It's an impossible job that they do extremely well. I also think the umpires want to get the call right and if they want to get the call right... they should be happy for the electronic help. It's just a tool available for their utilization much like a clicker in their hand or a rule book to memorize. 

It's also near impossible to calculate the affect of a missed call but at the very least players will have to adapt to the mistake and the mistake is typically inconsistent. It's ok to assume that some missed calls are not game changers but then again... how do you know because that last call may have created a fastball instead of the slider and who knows what the hitter would have done with that slider. There is a difference between a 1-1 count and 0-2 count.

Also... Pitchers are not making it easy for the hitter and therefore they make it harder for the umpire. They don't throw it down the middle for the call that nobody will ever miss... The hitter will clobber that pitch. They pitch out of the zone trying to catch corners to make it harder for the hitter. They live on the edge, they are aiming for that borderline and they are good at hitting that borderline and the borderline is the location that makes the calls harder and harder for umps to call correctly.  

The pitcher is trying to make it really hard for the umps... the catchers are trying to fool the umps. The catcher fools the ump, the fans boo the ump, the managers turn their hats around so they can scream in their face. social media will replay the missed call and the car mechanics will repost and comment on the mistake. 

This is charming? 

It's the exact opposite of charming.

I get that the automation may not have been perfected yet. OK... However... a human calling balls and strikes hasn't been perfected yet either and they have been at since 1876.

1876... the very same year that Alexander Graham Bell Patented the Telephone... Let me check my Iphone 15 and see if that is correct... Yep... it was 1876. 

1876... the very same year that electric light was first exhibited. They've made some improvements since then... I think the Sphere is Las Vegas has done some interesting things with the exhibition of light. 

1876... the very same year that Marshall James Brooks cleared 6 feet in the high jump for the first time. 6 Feet will put you in 28th place in the Indiana High School boys state championship today. I randomly chose Indiana and I actually researched it to make sure that I was correct.   

When discussing a catcher... framing is not something that I want to discuss. Strike zone automation is a tool to help the umpire, I had a Timex in the 80's. now my watch tells me how much sleep I got last night. 

7 Hours and 18 Minutes. 

  

 

 

The 1876 reference really brings this home.

It's hard to calculate the impact of a blown call on the game because it depends on so many variables.  We do however know the impact for a given AB.  A blown call with a 1;1 count has a huge impact on an AB.  The difference between 2:1 and 1:2 is huge.  Obviously, a blown call on a full count decides an AB.  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The 1876 reference really brings this home.

It's hard to calculate the impact of a blown call on the game because it depends on so many variables.  We do however know the impact for a given AB.  A blown call with a 1;1 count has a huge impact on an AB.  The difference between 2:1 and 1:2 is huge.  Obviously, a blown call on a full count decides an AB.  

October 4th, 2017. Yankees vs. Twins One game series - MLB Wild Card Round

The Twins jumped out to a 3 run lead in the top of the first on Home Runs by Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario. 

Ervin Santana struggled in the bottom of the first. Gave up a walk to Gardner and single to Judge before getting the 1st out on a Gary Sanchez pop up. 

The next batter with one out, Gardner on third and Judge on 1st was Didi Gregarious. On a 2-2 Count... Didi watched strike three for what should have been the 2nd out. It was ruled a ball. On the next pitch Didi tied the game at 3-3. 

There is no telling what would have happened with the next batter. There is no telling what would have happened in the 8 innings that followed if Santana would have gotten through his struggles with a zero hung in the first inning. 

But, there is no denying that a strikeout for the 2nd out of the inning with runners on 1st and 3rd is huge and there is no denying that a 3 run home run erasing a 3 run lead is huge, no matter the inning it occured and there is no denying that the playoffs are huge.

There is also no denying that... The Twins were done for 2017. The Yankees went on to face Cleveland and then the Astros. 

The playoff losing streak was now at 13 and eventually reach 18 providing fuel for 7 more years for fans to rake the Twins organization over the coals.   

Those who are pro umpire randomness will argue that the Twins probably had some missed calls to their advantage during the course of the game and they would probably be correct. I argue that two wrongs don't make a right. 15 Wrongs certainly don't make a right and those wrong will not balance out to make it equal. 

It was October, 4th 2017 was when I decided that I was ready for an auto-zone and no one will ever change my mind. 

I'm so pro auto-zone that I refuse to go to O' Reillys or Pep Boys.