Potentially Trading Polanco and Kepler and the possibilities Twins could use QO, after Teoscar signing

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Kepler wasn't even close to the most unlucky hitter in all of baseball. He was just really bad at making quality contact. I don't believe a .780 OPS Kepler would get a QO. I don't think a 2.4 WAR Kepler would get a QO.

 

Chpettit,  LOL I looked back and he has the lowest BABIP of any player since 1990.  Ok, is some of it luck,  is some of it lack of quality contact and some of it do to the exaggerated shift against him,  I would agree its all of it.  He was a 149 OPS+  in the second half of the season with a .306/.377/.549 slash line.  What happened,  he did a hell of a lot better on the first pitch.  The other thing is we were facing the 2nd weakest set of opponents in the 2nd half so we do have to take that into consideration.  I think Kepler will be above a 2.5 WAR which I believe will be a QO candidate.  You also have to know what type of individual Kepler is.  He is not one that is inherently aggressive or overconfident.  Its why he took a team friendly extension to lock in those dollars.  I don't think he is one to bet on himself by accepting the qualifying offer,  he will want to lock in salaries for an extended period.   It is very clear both you and Mike don't see him as a 2.4 to 2.5 WAR type player which is silly since thats what he has been as a floor since 2019.    Ultimately it will come down to production.  However as I have stated Candelario's and Teoscar's contract show Kepler is worth much more than most Twins fans are willing to give him credit and I would say yes he is a borderline qualifying offer that will be dependent on his offensive performance in 2024.  

Here are the lowest career BABIP totals by all MLB hitters with at least 2,500 plate appearances since 1990:

HITTER	BABIP	RH OR LH?
Max Kepler	.247	LEFT
Rod Barajas	.248	RIGHT
Henry Blanco	.250	RIGHT
Mark McGwire	.254	RIGHT
Carlos Quentin	.255	RIGHT
Joe Crede	.255	RIGHT
Maikel Franco	.257	RIGHT
Tony Batista	.257	RIGHT
Joe Carter	.257	RIGHT
Jeff Mathis	.260	RIGHT

[Fatbat]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think he would've signed that QO before it hit the table in front of him. Why wouldn't he? He'd get 83% of the money he got on the Detroit deal and be able to hit the market again next season. 

Do you think the Pohlads would "suck it up" and eat an extra 8 mil when they're choosing to cut payroll after having just won their first playoff game in 2 decades? So they would've had to cut that money somewhere else. Likely Polanco or Kepler for prospect return. Do you think the team is better with Maeda on a significant overpay or Polanco on a significant underpay? Overpaying by 66% is a terrible plan. Especially for a guy who isn't that good. 

If they were willing to sign Maeda for 20 mil they would've been better off signing Gray for 25. Eduardo Rodriguez only got 20 a year. Giolito was under 20. Wacha for 16 is lightyears better than Maeda for 20. Lugo for 15 would've been better. Flaherty for 1, 14 would be better than a QO to Maeda. Overpaying by nearly doubling a player's actual value is never a good strategy. Unless you're playing with Monopoly money like the Dodgers.

Asking a multibillionaire to suck up $8M isn’t hard to do. Once a successful TV revenue deal is in place, the franchise asset value will probably increase by over $100M over night. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Chpettit,  LOL I looked back and he has the lowest BABIP of any player since 1990.  Ok, is some of it luck,  is some of it lack of quality contact and some of it do to the exaggerated shift against him,  I would agree its all of it.  He was a 149 OPS+  in the second half of the season with a .306/.377/.549 slash line.  What happened,  he did a hell of a lot better on the first pitch.  The other thing is we were facing the 2nd weakest set of opponents in the 2nd half so we do have to take that into consideration.  I think Kepler will be above a 2.5 WAR which I believe will be a QO candidate.  You also have to know what type of individual Kepler is.  He is not one that is inherently aggressive or overconfident.  Its why he took a team friendly extension to lock in those dollars.  I don't think he is one to bet on himself by accepting the qualifying offer,  he will want to lock in salaries for an extended period.   It is very clear both you and Mike don't see him as a 2.4 to 2.5 WAR type player which is silly since thats what he has been as a floor since 2019.    Ultimately it will come down to production.  However as I have stated Candelario's and Teoscar's contract show Kepler is worth much more than most Twins fans are willing to give him credit and I would say yes he is a borderline qualifying offer that will be dependent on his offensive performance in 2024.  

Here are the lowest career BABIP totals by all MLB hitters with at least 2,500 plate appearances since 1990:

HITTER	BABIP	RH OR LH?
Max Kepler	.247	LEFT
Rod Barajas	.248	RIGHT
Henry Blanco	.250	RIGHT
Mark McGwire	.254	RIGHT
Carlos Quentin	.255	RIGHT
Joe Crede	.255	RIGHT
Maikel Franco	.257	RIGHT
Tony Batista	.257	RIGHT
Joe Carter	.257	RIGHT
Jeff Mathis	.260	RIGHT

I absolutely think he could be a 2.4 WAR player. But 2.4 WAR players, especially those who have most of their WAR from their defense in a corner outfield spot, don't get QOs. I listed out all the position players who've gotten a QO under the new CBA. 2 of them were coming off years with less than 3.9 WAR. Pederson was one and accepted his QO only to have a horrible season, and the other was Rizzo who signed an extension with the Yankees instead of taking the QO.

QOs simply aren't handed out very often, and they aren't handed to guys like Kepler. The Twins would be zigging hard while the rest of the league zags if they gave a 2.4 WAR Kepler a QO. 4 WAR Kepler? That'd be a different story. But he has a long ways to go to be a 4 WAR player.

Yes, I understand he had a low BABIP. It's been studied and reported on by many people in the baseball industry. He had that bad BABIP because he was really good at hitting lazy flyballs. That isn't bad luck. That's just not being a very good hitter. I'd BABIP about .000000001 in the majors (broken bat dribbler for my only hit because the head of the bat nearly takes out the nearest fielder) but that doesn't make me unlucky. Low BABIP doesn't automatically equal bad luck. Sometimes it just equals bad hitting.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Asking a multibillionaire to suck up $8M isn’t hard to do. Once a successful TV revenue deal is in place, the franchise asset value will probably increase by over $100M over night. 

You're preaching to the choir, my friend, but that doesn't change the fact that the Pohlads would not "suck up $8M." Especially for Kenta Maeda. They had their publicly subsidized stadium rocking like it's never rocked before and then announced a payroll cut within a month. While I think they should eat $8M without thinking twice after the playoff success they finally had, I wouldn't do it for Kenta Maeda. Way better ways to spend 20 mil than on 1 year of Kenta Maeda.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I absolutely think he could be a 2.4 WAR player. But 2.4 WAR players, especially those who have most of their WAR from their defense in a corner outfield spot, don't get QOs. I listed out all the position players who've gotten a QO under the new CBA. 2 of them were coming off years with less than 3.9 WAR. Pederson was one and accepted his QO only to have a horrible season, and the other was Rizzo who signed an extension with the Yankees instead of taking the QO.

QOs simply aren't handed out very often, and they aren't handed to guys like Kepler. The Twins would be zigging hard while the rest of the league zags if they gave a 2.4 WAR Kepler a QO. 4 WAR Kepler? That'd be a different story. But he has a long ways to go to be a 4 WAR player.

Yes, I understand he had a low BABIP. It's been studied and reported on by many people in the baseball industry. He had that bad BABIP because he was really good at hitting lazy flyballs. That isn't bad luck. That's just not being a very good hitter.

Well of your list I only think Rizzo and Teoscar are comparable with low 2.0 WAR prior year (Keplers was 2.9).  Rizzo got a 2 year $40 million contract (and he was offered the QO)  and Teoscar didn't get the offer and got a 1 for $20 mil contract.  I will not consider Garver due to his significant injury history the last couple of years and his steamer value of 1.6 for next year.  A low 2.0 WAR player is in the borderline category which is exactly where Kepler is at and shown by Rizzo and Teoscar.  

So of those 2 Rizzo was offered and declined and Teoscar wasn't offered and came in right at that QO amount.  A single WAR is worth 10 million right now and I wouldn't be surprised if its pushing 11 million next year.   Teams want wins,  and getting a 2.5 wins above replacement is worth $25 million.  This isn't rocket science.  Analytics value Kepler as a 2.4 WAR player for next year and Teoscar at 1.9.  Teoscars 1 year contract came right in at what his value is worth.   So yes this still comes down to you don't think Kepler is worth his 2.4 WAR for the valuation of around 24-25 million on a single year deal.   Ultimately this is all an eye test and what fans value kepler at and its clear you don't value him on what the stats are telling you.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, I understand he had a low BABIP. It's been studied and reported on by many people in the baseball industry. He had that bad BABIP because he was really good at hitting lazy flyballs. That isn't bad luck. That's just not being a very good hitter.

Then what changed in the 2nd half? Something repeatable or what you would classify as luck?   

[August J Gloop]

Remember that babip is luck until it's a player you don't like then it's weak contact. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

They have a fun data viz animation that dispels the idea that Max's low babip is a product of bad contact. Here is the key element: 

Player		14634	2714	202	7.4	5.2	89.7	115.4	14.7	32.0	.252	.422	.323	.330	.361	40.4	18.4	10.1
MLB					6.9	4.7	88.4	122.4	12.2	33.1	.245	.406	.316	.315	.369	36.3	22.1	8.4

Dang the headers keep falling off. His Average ext velo is above mlb average, his hard hit is 4% better, etc. Max is a polarizing figure, and I suppport his trading, but not because I think he's bad, but because I think he can bring value in a trade and his production can be replaced. 

I do not think he's a player that would ever be considered for a QO since so much of his value is tied up in Defense and defense is so extremely fungible.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I have a feeling MAT's contract will surprise people.  He has a steamer value of 1.0.  So his contract should come in at 10 million or north of that per a year.   Value is value.  Spotract has him at a 2 year 14 million.  I think he will come in between 2 year 17 million and 2 year 20 million or a 1 year 10 million.  Kiermaier has a steamer value of 1.2 and signed a contract of 10.5 million.   

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So of those 2 Rizzo was offered and declined and Teoscar wasn't offered and came in right at that QO amount.  A single WAR is worth 10 million right now and I wouldn't be surprised if its pushing 11 million next year.   Teams want wins,  and getting a 2.5 wins above replacement is worth $25 million.  This isn't rocket science.  Analytics value Kepler as a 2.4 WAR player for next year and Teoscar at 1.9.  Teoscars 1 year contract came right in at what his value is worth.   So yes this still comes down to you don't think Kepler is worth his 2.4 WAR for the valuation of around 24-25 million on a single year deal.   Ultimately this is all an eye test and what fans value kepler at and its clear you don't value him on what the stats are telling you.   

It doesn't come down to that, because I seriously doubt there are any front offices who value WAR the same amount as you do. Kepler's WAR is going to have next to no impact on his next contract or QO. No team is going to value a 30+-year-old corner outfielder's defense anywhere near as high as WAR does. Teams don't pay for defense at the corner spots, WAR is not a good argument here. 

Kepler will get a new contract or QO based almost entirely on what he does with the bat this year, which I'm betting is more similar to what he was doing prior to the last three months last year.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Well of your list I only think Rizzo and Teoscar are comparable with low 2.0 WAR prior year (Keplers was 2.9).  Rizzo got a 2 year $40 million contract (and he was offered the QO)  and Teoscar didn't get the offer and got a 1 for $20 mil contract.  I will not consider Garver due to his significant injury history the last couple of years and his steamer value of 1.6 for next year.  A low 2.0 WAR player is in the borderline category which is exactly where Kepler is at and shown by Rizzo and Teoscar.  

So of those 2 Rizzo was offered and declined and Teoscar wasn't offered and came in right at that QO amount.  A single WAR is worth 10 million right now and I wouldn't be surprised if its pushing 11 million next year.   Teams want wins,  and getting a 2.5 wins above replacement is worth $25 million.  This isn't rocket science.  Analytics value Kepler as a 2.4 WAR player for next year and Teoscar at 1.9.  Teoscars 1 year contract came right in at what his value is worth.   So yes this still comes down to you don't think Kepler is worth his 2.4 WAR for the valuation of around 24-25 million on a single year deal.   Ultimately this is all an eye test and what fans value kepler at and its clear you don't value him on what the stats are telling you.   

Please stop telling me how I value Kepler. I've agreed multiple times that Max Kepler is likely a 2.4 WAR player in 2024. What I don't agree with is your beliefs on him being a likely QO candidate or that corner outfielders who get the vast majority of their WAR from defense get paid the same as corner outfielders with big bats. I've provided you with examples of that, but you choose to focus on a player who is the complete opposite of Kepler in terms of driving his WAR value. Teoscar is a terrible defender who crushes the baseball. Comparing him to Kepler is a bad comparison. It's why I provided you a more accurate comp of Jason Heyward that you choose to ignore. Heyward is a far better comp and he got 1 year and 9 million. 

Just taking WAR and saying "1 WAR costs X amount" is an inaccurate description of how MLB teams actually function. Kevin Kiermaier (up the middle player so his defense is actually more important) was a heavily defensive driven WAR player with 3.9 WAR and he signed a 1 year, $10.5 million deal. Teams don't pay for defense, especially in corner spots. They pay for offense. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Then what changed in the 2nd half? Something repeatable or what you would classify as luck?   

He hit the ball harder. It's entirely possible that he sustains that, but the odds are not in his favor. There are plenty of examples of guys who have 1 year, or partial year, surges. They almost always come back to their career norms. And MLB teams almost always expect them to come back to their career norms. Was it luck? I don't know how to define luck when it comes to this, but I'd say probably not. Was just a really good hot streak. If it's sustainable you should be predicting Kepler is an MVP candidate in 2024, not a 2+ WAR player.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Remember that babip is luck until it's a player you don't like then it's weak contact. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

They have a fun data viz animation that dispels the idea that Max's low babip is a product of bad contact. Here is the key element: 

Player		14634	2714	202	7.4	5.2	89.7	115.4	14.7	32.0	.252	.422	.323	.330	.361	40.4	18.4	10.1
MLB					6.9	4.7	88.4	122.4	12.2	33.1	.245	.406	.316	.315	.369	36.3	22.1	8.4

Dang the headers keep falling off. His Average ext velo is above mlb average, his hard hit is 4% better, etc. Max is a polarizing figure, and I suppport his trading, but not because I think he's bad, but because I think he can bring value in a trade and his production can be replaced. 

I do not think he's a player that would ever be considered for a QO since so much of his value is tied up in Defense and defense is so extremely fungible.   

Flyball percentage is 3.1% higher than league average. Pop up percentage is 2.1% higher than league average. The worst hit types for batting average are flyballs and pop ups. Flyballs and pop ups also aren't effected by the shift so it wasn't driven highly by that either. So, no, it isn't luck, and I don't say this because I don't like Max. It's because he hits a lot of flyballs and pop ups. Like I said. There are probably a dozen articles written by both local and national baseball people on half a dozen different sites that have broken down Max Kepler. I believe Gleeman even has an article or 2 about it. Max Kepler's babip was not luck driven, it was bad contact driven.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It doesn't come down to that, because I seriously doubt there are any front offices who value WAR the same amount as you do. Kepler's WAR is going to have next to no impact on his next contract or QO. No team is going to value a 30+-year-old corner outfielder's defense anywhere near as high as WAR does. Teams don't pay for defense at the corner spots, WAR is not a good argument here. 

Kepler will get a new contract or QO based almost entirely on what he does with the bat this year, which I'm betting is more similar to what he was doing prior to the last three months last year.

Offseason2+Proj

WAR

2018  $9.3 M/WAR

2019  $7.8 M/WAR

2020  $9.5 M/WAR

2021 $5.5 M/WAR

2022 $8.5 M/WAR

Those are contracts giving out and what teams were paying for 1 level of WAR.  Obviously 2021 free agents got shafted due to Covid.  However the currently group of free agents is getting close to $10 million again for WAR and I have seen it could rise to $11 million next year.   

Candelario has a steamer value of 1 WAR next year but came off a 3 WAR season similar to Kepler and got a 3 year 45 million contract

Gurriel has a steamer value of 1.1 WAR,  Had a 2 WAR last year.  Signed a 3 year $42 million contract.  

Garver may have taken a discount.  Has a steamer value of 1.6 WAR -  signed for 2 years $24 million.  

Teoscar Hernandez has steamer value of 1.7   signed for Present Value Contract of $19-20 million.   

 

Kepler had a 2.6  WAR for fangraphs and a steamer WAR for next year of 2.3 WAR.  Looks like they readjusted calculations slightly.  So for Fangraphs he has a higher future valuation for next year than Candelario (almost double) - yet I get the sense most think the max Kepler would get is basically the Candelario contract.      On a one year contract he is worth right around 25 million for 2024 year.  We will see how he performs and what the expected value is for 2025 if he is not traded by then.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I have a feeling MAT's contract will surprise people.  He has a steamer value of 1.0.  So his contract should come in at 10 million or north of that per a year.   Value is value.  Spotract has him at a 2 year 14 million.  I think he will come in between 2 year 17 million and 2 year 20 million or a 1 year 10 million.  Kiermaier has a steamer value of 1.2 and signed a contract of 10.5 million.   

$$/WAR is based on the average but how it is allocated is not linear. It's easy to find 1 WAR projection players who are signing for the league minimum. Players get a premium for elite performance because you can't replace a 7 WAR player with seven 1 WAR players.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Please stop telling me how I value Kepler. I've agreed multiple times that Max Kepler is likely a 2.4 WAR player in 2024. What I don't agree with is your beliefs on him being a likely QO candidate or that corner outfielders who get the vast majority of their WAR from defense get paid the same as corner outfielders with big bats. I've provided you with examples of that, but you choose to focus on a player who is the complete opposite of Kepler in terms of driving his WAR value. Teoscar is a terrible defender who crushes the baseball. Comparing him to Kepler is a bad comparison. It's why I provided you a more accurate comp of Jason Heyward that you choose to ignore. Heyward is a far better comp and he got 1 year and 9 million. 

Just taking WAR and saying "1 WAR costs X amount" is an inaccurate description of how MLB teams actually function. Kevin Kiermaier (up the middle player so his defense is actually more important) was a heavily defensive driven WAR player with 3.9 WAR and he signed a 1 year, $10.5 million deal. Teams don't pay for defense, especially in corner spots. They pay for offense. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

What I have an issue is everything shows contracts are going for around $10 million per a WAR.  So if you expect him to get a 2.4 WAR next year,  how is he not worth around $24 million?  I am a CPA and numbers guy.   This is simple math.  2.4 times 10.  And if you don't think a defensive corner outfielder is worth that,  show me something that disputes the valuation when the best comparison right now is Teoscar Hernandez who signed for a little more than $10 million dollars for his expected WAR for 2024. 

Kiermaiers steamer value for WAR in 2024 is you guessed  1.2 WAR for 2024.   What did he sign for $10.5 million.    

Heywards Steamer valuations for 2024 is .9 WAR and he signed for 9 million dollars.   I never ignored your point on Heyward,  what I stated is he got a contract for what he is valued at in 2024 which is 9 million.  

Your argument is not supported by the numbers.    Fangraphs seems fairly close to their valuation on players and how teams view them.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

$$/WAR is based on the average but how it is allocated is not linear. It's easy to find 1 WAR projection players who are signing for the league minimum. Players get a premium for elite performance because you can't replace a 7 WAR player with seven 1 WAR players.

1 WAR and less players it gets a little wonky.  However I have thrown out every contract this year signed for 1 WAR and higher players and other than Garver who may have signed a discount,  the valuations are right around $10 million/WAR.   

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

1 WAR and less players it gets a little wonky.  However I have thrown out every contract this year signed for 1 WAR and higher players and other than Garver who may have signed a discount,  the valuations are right around $10 million/WAR.   

Because we haven't hit the end of February yet when a lot of 1 WAR players will sign for league minimum and pull down the average. It's fairly linear down to league average (2.5 WAR) and then gets less so below that because 1 WAR free agents (below average players) are not particularly scarce.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ok,  if you want an odd one,  lets look at Harrison Bader.  Signed a 1 year $10.5 million contract.  He has a steamer of 1.6 WAR for 2024 and spotract expected him to sign a 4 year 60 million dollar contract.   I know there is some injury concern there,  but that is currently your best argument at a defensive outfielder getting less than $10 million per a war.  Heywards supports my claim, and then you have Michael Taylor still sitting out there if you want to ignore Bellinger because he has too good of a bat.   

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

What I have an issue is everything shows contracts are going for around $10 million per a WAR.  So if you expect him to get a 2.4 WAR next year,  how is he not worth around $24 million?  I am a CPA and numbers guy.   This is simple math.  2.4 times 10.  And if you don't think a defensive corner outfielder is worth that,  show me something that disputes the valuation when the best comparison right now is Teoscar Hernandez who signed for a little more than $10 million dollars for his expected WAR for 2024. 

Kiermaiers steamer value for WAR in 2024 is you guessed  1.2 WAR for 2024.   What did he sign for $10.5 million.    

Heywards Steamer valuations for 2024 is .9 WAR and he signed for 9 million dollars.   

Your argument is not supported by the numbers.    Fangraphs seems fairly close to their valuation on players and how teams view them.   

You are confusing the average cost per war with value.  Teams are not making offers anticipating a cost of $10M/WAR.   The failure rate with free agents is so high that it inflates the cost per WAR well beyond what teams anticipate but teams don't offer $30M/year to a player anticipated to produce 3 WAR.  In addition, the threshold teams are willing to accept is going to be significantly different for a team producing $600M in revenue vs $300M in revenue.  

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

What I have an issue is everything shows contracts are going for around $10 million per a WAR.  So if you expect him to get a 2.4 WAR next year,  how is he not worth around $24 million?  I am a CPA and numbers guy.   This is simple math.  2.4 times 10.  And if you don't think a defensive corner outfielder is worth that,  show me something that disputes the valuation when the best comparison right now is Teoscar Hernandez who signed for a little more than $10 million dollars for his expected WAR for 2024. 

Kiermaiers steamer value for WAR in 2024 is you guessed  1.2 WAR for 2024.   What did he sign for $10.5 million.    

Heywards Steamer valuations for 2024 is .9 WAR and he signed for 9 million dollars.   

Your argument is not supported by the numbers.    Fangraphs seems fairly close to their valuation on players and how teams view them.   

Do you believe every team has the same WAR projection for every player? Do you believe each team is willing to pay the same $/WAR on the market?

What do the $/WAR look like for the projections from other systems and not just steamer? What is the actual $/WAR this offseason when you include guys like Garver who "took a discount?"

[Fatbat]

@Hawkeye Bean Counter @chpettit19 For the sake of argument or agreement, lets say Kepler has an outstanding year of D per usual and has an above career norm year at the plate and ends with something +\- about  3 WAR for whatever team he plays for in ‘24. Does he get a QO ? 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

@Hawkeye Bean Counter @chpettit19 For the sake of argument or agreement, lets say Kepler has an outstanding year of D per usual and has an above career norm year at the plate and ends with something +\- about  3 WAR for whatever team he plays for in ‘24. Does he get a QO ? 

If he's still with the Twins, no. Other teams are harder to predict. But I don't believe the Twins would be willing to pay him 20+ million in 2025. I'd lean towards no for most other teams as well, but there'd be a better chance on another team.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Hawkeye Bean Counter @chpettit19 For the sake of argument or agreement, lets say Kepler has an outstanding year of D per usual and has an above career norm year at the plate and ends with something +\- about  3 WAR for whatever team he plays for in ‘24. Does he get a QO ? 

Chpettit without putting words in his mouth has basically stated if he has a decent year at the plate with his continued good defensive outing would get the Qualifying offer.  If he has a 3 WAR or higher I think he is a shoe in for a Qualifying offer.  I think it gets more dicey in the 2 WAR range.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Conforto signed a 2 year $36 million contract last year.  He has has a significantly lower WAR than Kepler most years.  

Joc Pederson accepted the QO  after a 1.4 WAR season.   He had a .6 WAR last year and has a steamer of 1.6 WAR for 2024.  He is expected to sign a 2 year $32 million dollar contract.  

I just don't see many examples of players getting significantly lower contracts than $10 million/expected WAR.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

32 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are confusing the average cost per war with value.  Teams are not making offers anticipating a cost of $10M/WAR.   The failure rate with free agents is so high that it inflates the cost per WAR well beyond what teams anticipate but teams don't offer $30M/year to a player anticipated to produce 3 WAR.  In addition, the threshold teams are willing to accept is going to be significantly different for a team producing $600M in revenue vs $300M in revenue.  

I don't believe I am.  I have shown 8-10 contracts of batters signed this year and it is all matching up pretty well so far.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Cody Bellinger I think will be a pretty good comp for Kepler.  Both are expected to be 2.3 to 2.4 WARS for Steamer next year.  Now he will be 3 years younger.  Spotrac has him at a 5 year 112 million contract.  I believe he is looking for a contract north of $200 million.  Personally I think Kepler has a 4 WAR year and will get a 3 year contract in the 60-80 million area.  But for now going to leave it at that.   On the kepler QO  most fans are pretty steadfast on their views of him and his potential value in a contract situation.  

[Major League Ready]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I don't believe I am.  I have shown 8-10 contracts of batters signed this year and it is all matching up pretty well so far.   

You picked 8 out of hundreds and you used Streamer.  Do you think Kiermaier's agent was negotiating based on 1.2 from Streamer or 3.9 from baseball reference.  One was what he actually did last year.  The other an estimate.  More importantly, it's not the estimate of the party making the offer.

Bader had the worst year of his career.  The Mets were willing to bet he would be better next year and they only had to give a one-year contract which has a very different risk profile.  I could go on but what is relevant is that the measure you are using is calculated based on production per dollar spent.  It is not for a sample, it's all free agents as opposed to you picking examples. It's not a reflection of estimated value it's actual production per dollar spent.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You picked 8 out of hundreds and you used Streamer.  Do you think Kiermaier's agent was negotiating based on 1.2 from Streamer or 3.9 from baseball reference.  One was what he actually did last year.  The other an estimate.  More importantly, it's not the estimate of the party making the offer.

Bader had the worst year of his career.  The Mets were willing to bet he would be better next year and they only had to give a one-year contract which has a very different risk profile.  I could go on but what is relevant is that the measure you are using is calculated based on production per dollar spent.  It is not for a sample, it's all free agents as opposed to you picking examples. It's not a reflection of estimated value it's actual production per dollar spent.

To be fair I picked 8 of the 24 batters that have signed so far.  I ignored Ohtani and Lee, and a bunch of players that signed below 8 million dollars.  I think I covered over 70% of the players remaining.  If you disagree with my stance fine,  but so far between steamer values and contracts signed it has been pretty spot on with my thesis.  Honestly there are only about 15 more batters that will sign for more than $10 million a year that I will be trying to keep track of.    We act like there is a massive amount of players that command premium contracts.  Kepler has had a 2 WAR every year other than 2020.  That is insane consistency.  If he finds more consistency with his bat like he did last summer and fall,  he is a top 20 outfielder that will command a very strong contract.  

[cmoss84]

Um...I can think of quite a few other ways to spend $20-$25 than Kepler.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Um...I can think of quite a few other ways to spend $20-$25 than Kepler.  

Giving a Qualifying offer doesn't mean the Twins will be spending $20 to $25 million on kepler.  The strategy would be that you would get another late 1st round draft pick like we did with Sonny Gray.