2024 Prospect Previews: Walker Jenkins

[Jamie Cameron]

Not every fifth overall pick enters their first full season as a pro among the game's top 20 prospects. This one will. Let's look ahead to his coming campaign.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

Entering the 2023 MLB Draft, Walker Jenkins was considered one of two consensus elite prep prospects. After an exceptional pro debut, expectations are sky-high entering 2024. What can Twins fans expect from his sophomore season? The prospect preview series will tell the stories of a number of Twins draft picks from 2023, detailing their signing, skillsets, and expectations for 2024.

Draft Context
In 2023, for the second consecutive draft, the Minnesota Twins had a gift fall into their lap. In 2022, it was Brooks Lee, the most well-rounded college bat, falling to No. 8 overall. In 2023, the Twins’ boon came via the draft lottery. Minnesota moved from a default position of 13th to fifth overall, the first example of a team moving up under the new collectively bargained draft lottery system. Minnesota’s good fortune gave them access to the upper echelon of talent in a potentially historic draft class.

It’s worth revisiting how the 2023 pool of draftable talent became such an embarrassment of riches. The 2020 draft was shortened to five rounds, due to COVID-19. Organizations had limited access to prospects, resulting in an inflated number of prep prospects going to college. The majority of those became draftable again in 2023. Add that to a prep class full of excellent up-the-middle prospects, and 2023 looks like the strongest draft class since 2011 (in which 17 of the top 46 picks became MLB All-Stars).

Scouting and Signing
Entering draft day, Jenkins was the consensus number-four prospect in an incredibly strong group comprising Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Paul Skenes, Jenkins, and Max Clark. Pre-draft industry chatter linked the Twins to down-the-board names like Jacob Gonzalez (who was picked 15th overall, by the White Sox). The Tigers provided the first modest surprise, taking Clark third. After the Rangers selected Langford, Jenkins became a shoo-in for the Twins, who honored legendary scout Mike Radcliff with the pick.

Jenkins has a sweet, left-handed swing defined by simplicity. He has a quiet pre-swing approach and efficient, simple movements. Jenkins has already developed strong, in-game pull-side power, which extends to the opposite field. The repeatability of his swing, consistency of his mechanics, and athleticism afford him good barrel manipulation, which he consistently demonstrated in hitting everything hard in his pro debut.

Jenkins’s athleticism is on display defensively, too. He has a plus arm and at least above-average speed. An above-average glove should keep him in center field to start his pro career. At worst, he’ll have the tools to be a strong defensive presence in right field.

Jenkins, and indeed any of the top five players in the 2023 draft, would easily qualify as the top prospect in the 2024 draft; such was the strength of a loaded class. Jenkins debuted in most prospect lists as a consensus top-25 player, and he’s only ascended after obliterating any pitching he’s seen in his first two minor-league levels. If Jenkins can stay healthy and keep hitting, he’ll be in the conversation for the best prospect in baseball a year from now.

Jenkins is represented by the Boras Corporation. As such, negotiations over his signing bonus dragged on throughout the allowed window, post-draft. As the signing deadline approached, there was mounting anxiety from Twins fans. Minnesota remains one of two MLB organizations who have never spent into their allotted draft pool overage (orgs are permitted to spend five percent beyond their draft bonus pool without meaningful penalty). This, undoubtedly, was the hold up in negotiations. Jenkins eventually signed for a slightly above-slot $7,144,200, as the final first-round draftee to put pen to paper.

An Impressive Pro Debut
Jenkins was too strong for any competition he faced in 2023. He made short work of the Florida Complex League, hitting .333/.390/.537 with a 138 wRC+ in 59 plate appearances. After moving up to Low-A Fort Myers, he accelerated. In 56 plate appearances, he managed .392/.446/.608 with a 182 wRC+. Jenkins barely walked (or struck out) at either level. Simply put, he hasn’t been tested by pitching as a professional yet. It was as good a debut as anyone could have hoped for. Were it not for Langford blasting his way to the doorstep of the Texas Rangers clubhouse, Jenkins’s impressive start would have commanded more attention.

Expectations for 2024 
Having quickly proven he is too good for Loa A, Jenkins likely starts 2024 at High-A Cedar Rapids. That will be a step up in competition, and a step away from the comfort of the Twins Fort Myers complex and the reliably palatable Florida weather. Jenkins has answered every question asked of him in his young career with ease. If he can remain healthy and maintain his levels of performance in 2024, finishing the year at Double A is attainable. Reaching Wichita would open the door to an MLB debut in 2025, in his age-20 season. Jenkins, continuing on his current path in 2024, can cement his status as the best Twins prospect since Byron Buxton.

What will count as a successful 2024 for Jenkins, in your opinion? Where are you setting his benchmarks, and how fast do you want to see the Twins advance him? Let's talk about the future, right here in the future's past.

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[AceWrigley]

Best looking prospect to come along in a long time. Here's to hoping he stays healthy and sticks to his work ethic.

[Karbo]

I would like to start him in AA ball to see what happens. Weather should be better there also. I expect the Twins will be more cautious than that though and start him in either low A or high A.

[chpettit19]

@Jamie Cameron have you heard from Twins officials that he's likely to start at A+ or is that just your educated guess? I was thinking they're probably going to start him back at A ball to get his season going for a month or so before jumping him up. Him starting at A+ would be a fabulous sign so I hope that's how it works out!

[Jamie Cameron]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

@Jamie Cameron have you heard from Twins officials that he's likely to start at A+ or is that just your educated guess? I was thinking they're probably going to start him back at A ball to get his season going for a month or so before jumping him up. Him starting at A+ would be a fabulous sign so I hope that's how it works out!

Educated guess on my part, but you may well be right. There was conversation about having him in CR for the playoffs at the end of last season. I can get on board with either bc I don't think it'll make much material difference, it'll either be 'CR' or 'CR soon'. Thanks for reading!

[Dman]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

@Jamie Cameron have you heard from Twins officials that he's likely to start at A+ or is that just your educated guess? I was thinking they're probably going to start him back at A ball to get his season going for a month or so before jumping him up. Him starting at A+ would be a fabulous sign so I hope that's how it works out!

Yeah that was my thought as well.  He is young and it gives him a little more time at the complex in better weather before heading to cold Cedar Rapids.  Lot's of hitters with slow starts the first few months in Cedar Rapids.

I can see where Jamie is coming from though as it likely doesn't make much difference where they start him as he has an advanced bat and really good makeup, so I doubt he struggles there. AA is the larger jump as the offspeed\breaking ball stuff is significantly better at that level.

Personally I think they hold him back as they generally aren't in a hurry to move high school drafted players quickly through the system. We'll find out 4 months from now.

EDIT:  That being said there isn't much for outfield talent at High A right now with Fedko (balanced line), McCusker (Super High K rate, Elite slugging), Urbina (No power, Plus Low average),, and possibly Aguiar who might still need time at low A the only ones at that level.

[Heiny]

I will make several weekend trips to Cedar Rapids to watch him play.  Looking forward to baseball 2024.

[Jocko87]

12 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I will make several weekend trips to Cedar Rapids to watch him play.  Looking forward to baseball 2024.

And your loss will be my gain when he comes to Wichita.  I’m very interested to see him and ERod in the same outfield. Of course, that’s if Erod is still here in the fall. 

[Heiny]

11 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

And your loss will be my gain when he comes to Wichita.  I’m very interested to see him and ERod in the same outfield. Of course, that’s if Erod is still here in the fall. 

If I can travel 7 hours to watch him in Cedar Rapids, I won't have a problem traveling 11 hours to watch him in Wichita.  I'm retired.  Sounds like a great weekend getaway.  And, I'll let you buy me a beer.

[Fatbat]

I would imagine they will give him a month in Florida and 2-3 months in cedar rapids.  He will force the organization to send him to AA mid summer.  He will make the adjustments to the breaking balls and he will be a Saint in 2025 following an invite to spring training a short yr from now. Wichita is the place to be in ‘24 if you want to see future allstar OF’s. 

[Teflon]

Walker Jenkins's dad bears an uncanny likeness to Kirk Cousins.

[Fatbat]

On 2/4/2024 at 7:34 PM, Teflon said:

Walker Jenkins's dad bears an uncanny likeness to Kirk Cousins.

Walker is about 8” taller. Whats in the NC water?