Which Mariners Starting Pitcher Could the Twins Acquire in Trade?

[LA Vikes Fan]

Kirby and Gilbert aren't realistic targets unless we are willing to give up BOTH Julien and Lee PLUS Polanco or Kepler. Not happening. Established starting pitching costs more than anyone thinks. The realistic targets are Woo and Miller because they are less established, thus less predictable in outcome. I like them both.

Polaco and Wallner for either Woo or Miller plus a throw in decent reliever like Ty Adcock or Darren McCaughan is a good deal for both teams. Even better if we get Justin Topa. I just don't think that Seattle has an interest in Wallner with his strikeout rates. Maybe Julien and Kepler for Woo, Topa, and Adcock? Slight overpay by the Twins but you generally overpay for starting pitching. Topa is a solid to very good late inning reliever and Adcock is a solid middle inning guy and only 25. Would take Miller instead of Woo and also trade Polanco instead of Kepler. Hate to trade Julien but would for controllable young quality starting pitching, but ONLY for that. 

My proposal for a trade with the Mariners:

Mariners get - Kepler (or Polanco), Julien

Twins get - Woo (or Miller), Topa, and Adcock. 

 

[specialiststeve]

I would think we would consider trades #1 or #2 but not 3 to me. 

I think we have the depth to absorb the assets leaving in 1 or 2 but not in 3. I like Gilbert a lot but not at that cost. 

More likely would be finding a 1 year rehab pitcher that we can pay little and hope while the young guys get ready.

I myself would like that 5th spot to be an open audition for our system to see if Lewis can jump in. Not sexy but might be pretty effective and VERY cost effective. 

[specialiststeve]

7 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Julien and Lee, young ML ready infielders with potential impact bats and high ceilings, for a once a week starter? No thanks! Trade 2 is more palatable, though ERod looks like he could be a five tool player potentially ready for a call up by the end of the year, or next year at the latest. 

Slow down a bit... ERod just finished A ball... that is a LONG way from the show. Folks need to understand there are a few guys that can just make that huge jump but VERY few. Let him take the AA road next year and if killing it to AAA to see if he can hit there before considering him being all world. He is a VERY nice prospect but about 1 in 10 actually make it and are good... I would take Miller if it was ERod and Kep or Polanco that it took. Would likely want a lotto pick back with it but ... 

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Robbie Ray is due back after the All Star Game, which makes his salary about $11-12M for 2024 and then he is still due another $50M plus $1M if traded for 2025-2026. Castillo is due $24+M per year for four years plus an option. Both potentially good pitchers. Why would you trade for these guys as opposed to signing Snell or Montgomery as free agents? 

Seattle has to either sign some free agents to fill spots in the outfield and infield or acquire some players via trade. Thus far, the Mariners have been a little skittish about paying bats via free agency, although they could certainly change their past practices. I don't believe teams will be looking to help them out. 

Castillo is "only" due 22.75 per year with a vesting option that is very unlikely to hit unless he's really good in 2027, FYI.

[weitz41]

I'd be thrilled with any of the three starters mentioned. I like BTV for ideas on trades, but I feel they are a bit off on their values on starting pitchers. My point is I think the three trades proposed are likely quite a bit on the light side. I don't see parting with Lee or Julien as a good way to fix the pitching depth or bringing in a #2 pitcher. Polanco alone won't get that either. Adding Raya or Festa would affect late 2024 and 2025. Trading Kepler would seem to lead to a lot of crossed fingers in the OF. Unfortunately, spending to fix the issue seems to out of the question.

Frustrating offseason for this Twins fan...

[Finlander]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You have to believe Seattle wants to hold onto their young pitching.  I noticed they have a lot of prospects in their top 20 that are not projected to reach the majors until 26-27.  Will they try to trade these prospects and hang on to their pitching?  Those assets look pretty good to a rebuilding team.

Trading Ray or Castillo also has to be more appealing to them as well.  Would a team like Baltimore just entering what should be a wide window be interested in Ray?  Castillo has been great but the failure rate for guys this age is also quite high.  See Ray, Rodon, Mahle, etc.  Yet, Castillo is really tempting if Polanco and Kepler were the 

When I had mentioned targeting Castillo, this is what I had in mind - Kepler and Polanco plus a lottery ticket might get it done. Salaries balance out for 2024. Sure, after that we're "stuck" with a top pitcher at $22-25M, whatever he's at. Oh darn. Guess we could always trade him to the Dodgers after we beat them in the 2024 WS!

[Doctor Wu]

I knew next to nothing about most of the Seattle pitchers mentioned in this article, so I appreciate the details and suggestions. From reading the other comments, I'd also agree that it's unlikely that Seattle would want to trade any of their young arms. Maybe for a hitter like Julien, but I don't think any of our other pieces are what would motivate them. In any case, it's good to hear some different ideas and trade scenarios floated. I'm sure the front office is busy thinking of their own trade ideas ... or so we keep hoping!

[harmony55]

On Trades 1 and 2, Seattle is unlikely to add $10 million to its constrained payroll while creating a hole in its starting rotation.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

On Trades 1 and 2, Seattle is unlikely to add $10 million to its constrained payroll while creating a hole in its starting rotation.

Seattle has been linked to both Snell and Yamamoto, Where have you seen they have a constrained payroll?

[harmony55]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seattle has been linked to both Snell and Yamamoto, Where have you seen they have a constrained payroll?

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/now-we-know-why-the-seattle-mariners-arent-spending-any-money-this-offseason-theyll-assume-full-control-of-television-rights

[harmony55]

On 12/20/2023 at 11:31 AM, tony&rodney said:

BTV has shifted values for some players at least three times since the season ended, some by quite a bit. Emm-Rod could slot into a prospect list at #25 or better when all of the new lists come out, which might push his value on BTV into the 40s or 50s. Those lists are quite fluid. Additionally, while there are close values on many trades, we can see vast differences in trades that include major names. Look only to the Lopez-Arraez, Soto, or Glasnow trades to witness the wild discrepancies (according to BTV) in some transactions. 

Seattle cannot compete with the team they currently have rostered, the Twins can. Knowing this, the Twins need to proceed with the knowledge that other teams need their players much more than the Twins need to complete a deal. Both Polanco and Kepler have tremendous value in the short term. I would not agree to any of the trades offered here. Seattle would jump at #1 and #3. I'm not sure Seattle wants a prospect a couple of years away, especially one who has struck out at high rates (#2), and I'm not feeling as much love for Miller (or Woo) as some others. I'll take Varland. 

The Twins did not show any interest in Gurriel Jr that I'm aware of and I'm not sure that Falvey is working hard to sign Rhys Hoskins. These were two players I think would benefit the Twins. While it isn't unusual for the Twins to wait until later (Jan.-April) to complete their team, the number of good players has dwindled to high-priced free agents and questionable risks. Trades are going to be difficult to complete with Seattle. Perhaps Miami can be a repeat partner for Falvey. 

 ZiPS projects the current Seattle roster with 85-90 wins;

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/
 

This year the Twins advanced to the postseason with 87 wins before losing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagan to free agency,

The Mariner’ needs are no greater than the Twins’ needs.

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

The Mariner’ needs are no greater than the Twins’ needs.

We can agree to disagree on this. 

The Mariners have holes at 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH. They are pretty weak at 1B. They have great starting pitching. 

The Twins are fine everywhere but could use an additional bat and a starting pitcher as good as Lopez.

The season is still a long way off which makes any argument about 2024 results pointless at this time, but for right now the Twins are in better shape. A factor to consider for Seattle is that they have both Texas and Houston in their division. Meanwhile the Twins will be scrapping it out with Detroit, KC, and Cleveland.

[TopGunn#22]

If Luis Castillo is really a potential trade piece I think the Twins should be very interested.  I would propose the following trade.  Based on BBTV it's a slight overpay for the Twins.  I would think you'd have to overpay somewhat to "win" a trade for Castillo.  The Mariners get a much needed 2B, a power hitting OF and a young SP to restock the farm with the loss of Castillo at the top of their rotation.  If Seattle truly wants to keep their young, controllable SP (and I can believe they do) this deal checks a LOT of their off season needs boxes.

Castillo simply moves right in to the top of the Twins rotation pushing Lopez to #2.  A rotation of Castillo, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland would be better than 2023.  Remember, Castillo and Gray both pitched for the Reds.  Castillo was CLEARLY the Ace.  Sonny won us 8 games last last year.  Castillo would be a significant upgrade.  The Twins take a bit of a hit salary wise as Polanco & Larnach cover some, but not all of the cost of Castillo in 2024.  But Castillo's contract is a bargain compared to what the current SP salary landscape is looking like.  I for one would LOVE to enter a playoff series with Castillo and Lopez pitching games #1 & #2.   

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Luis Castillo	31	Majors	SP		Low	5	138.7	121.6	17.1	13.7	17.1	20.6

Total Value:

17.1

Mariners

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Trevor Larnach	27	Majors	OF		Low	4	9.2	5.6	3.6	2.9	3.6	4.3
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Connor Prielipp	22	Minors	SP			0	0	0	5.7	4.6	5.7	6.8

Total Value:

18.7

 

 

 

[darin617]

On 12/20/2023 at 2:30 PM, tony&rodney said:

I don't disagree with you about the Twins getting outbid, but this is also an indication that the Twins are not going to pay big salaries for pitchers this year. Things may change next year. I will add that we hoped that the Twins would sign a guy this year, but it isn't going to happen.

More and more, I'm not real interested in trading a top prospect/player such as Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Festa, or Lee, much less the key prospects below AAA.

I'm not taking on either of Ray or Castillo. I'm still in on Gilbert or Kirby and fully understand that the Mariners are extremely unlikely to trade them. I am also bullish on Louie Varland which most people seem to disagree with right now. The Twins could use some depth behind Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, for sure. Polanco seems to be the guy to trade as well although I'm still believing in his value. The three guys who are going to be constantly asked about though are still Lewis, Lee, and Julien. There are going to be many teams contacting the Mariners and Marlins and both of these teams will be calling the Twins too.

If the Twins did trade Polanco for a player earning a minimum salary, I would hope there is room to add a Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins in the budget.

So you think Seattle is just going to give away young controllable pitchers for pennies on the dollar?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

So you think Seattle is just going to give away young controllable pitchers for pennies on the dollar?

I don't think the Twins are in on Seattle unless they trade one of Lee or Lewis. We are all just guessing.

[harmony55]

FWIW an offseason report on Seattle righthander Bryce Miller: