To Trade, or Not To Trade Max Kepler: That Is the Question

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Disagreements are ok... although I'm not sure why we would disagree here. 

Subtract his Home Runs, K's and Sacrifices, the difference between a .213 Pre-All Star break BABIP and .351 Post All Star Break BABIP is about 20 more hits on this side of the wall over 20 more AB's Pre to post. 

The only thing that significantly changed in his batted ball profile is his hard hit percentage which went up pre to post and his soft hit percentage which went down pre to post.    

They coincide in the curious case of Max Kepler. He didn't bloop and seeing eye single his way to better numbers. He started hitting the ball harder. About 35 Balls Hit Hard post all star break compared to Pre. 

 

 

 

Five hitters had a babip that high for the year last year. He's not suddenly one of the five best hitters in the game at hitting balls into play. It was likely luck. 

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

If BABIP is baseball IQ, big name players across the majors routinely get smarter and dumber and then smarter again year after year. 

If plate discipline is Baseball IQ then yes they do.

I think plate discipline is between the ears. I think you go through stretches where you start reaching at stuff you shouldn't reach for and the commentators start calling it a slump. I think getting out of a slump is between the ears. 

If that's baseball IQ... OK. 

Kep slumped for way too long and then all of sudden he stopped slumping. 

 

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Five hitters had a babip that high for the year last year. He's not suddenly one of the five best hitters in the game at hitting balls into play. It was likely luck. 

I think our disagreement is only BABIP. I don't believe it's a luck stat. 

I also don't think Kepler can sustain what he did post all-star break... I think we agree there. 

To add onto what you were saying. Only 4 players in baseball had a harder hit % than Kepler's back half of the year. 

Only 4 Players had a lower soft hit percentage than Kepler. 

Now could it be luck that Kepler got a higher percentage of meatballs during his resurgence. Maybe... but otherwise... Hitting the ball harder and hitting the ball softer less also has to be considered a BABIP factor. And swinging at crap will be a factor in hard or soft hits... Therefore... Between the Ears.   

 

[Fatbat]

47 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I think our disagreement is only BABIP. I don't believe it's a luck stat. 

I also don't think Kepler can sustain what he did post all-star break... I think we agree there. 

To add onto what you were saying. Only 4 players in baseball had a harder hit % than Kepler's back half of the year. 

Only 4 Players had a lower soft hit percentage than Kepler. 

Now could it be luck that Kepler got a higher percentage of meatballs during his resurgence. Maybe... but otherwise... Hitting the ball harder and hitting the ball softer less also has to be considered a BABIP factor. And swinging at crap will be a factor in hard or soft hits... Therefore... Between the Ears.   

 

Seems like such a fine line between being good and bad at the craft of hitting MLB pitchers. I always wondered if the defensive shift got into his head and it took a few months to shake it out. 

[Finlander]

His reality is obviously somewhere between first half and second half babip. Just have to decide what is acceptable.

But this a great illustration of a point I've made in a previous post somewhere. Lots of nitpicking about Kepler's advanced hitting stats, while his fielding is ignored. Let's see Correa's hitting stats from last year. How about Bux? Or Vasquez? Or any number of other underperformers? It's amazing we won the division while setting strikeout records. Thank goodness for our pitching rotation.

And btw, I think the pitching staff appreciates elite fielding from a teammate more than BABIP. 

[Riverbrian]

41 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Seems like such a fine line between being good and bad at the craft of hitting MLB pitchers. I always wondered if the defensive shift got into his head and it took a few months to shake it out. 

He has always been a pull hitter and a decent contact hitter that doesn't strike out a ton so the shift would have to be a problem. But... the shift changes it didn't fix much in the early part of the season... It wasn't until he started hitting the ball harder that he started correcting.  

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

He has always been a pull hitter and a decent contact hitter that doesn't strike out a ton so the shift would have to be a problem. But... the shift changes it didn't fix much in the early part of the season... It wasn't until he started hitting the ball harder that he started correcting.  

Right! Adjustments, corrections, tweaks, stuff changing in his swing. Didn’t he hit a couple oppotaco’s after the all star break? He almost never goes opposite field with that kind of power. Something precipitated the change. I don’t think its a coincidence that his worst years of production were during the exaggerated shifts. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Right! Adjustments, corrections, tweaks, stuff changing in his swing. Didn’t he hit a couple oppotaco’s after the all star break? He almost never goes opposite field with that kind of power. Something precipitated the change. I don’t think its a coincidence that his worst years of production were during the exaggerated shifts. 

I remember one at the end of the year at Coors Field.

Weather it's a home run or single to left field... I almost always say Atta Boy Max to myself because he has been such a pull the ball guy.

I just like seeing it because sometimes it's best to let that ball travel in a little more instead of always hitting it out front... or not pull that outside pitch to a pop up or weak grounder. Don't get me wrong... I like a 400 foot yank to right field as much as the next guy but sometimes... you got to have that other way club in your bag.   

[Fatbat]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I remember one at the end of the year at Coors Field.

Weather it's a home run or single to left field... I almost always say Atta Boy Max to myself because he has been such a pull the ball guy.

I just like seeing it because sometimes it's best to let that ball travel in a little more instead of always hitting it out front... or not pull that outside pitch to a pop up or weak grounder. Don't get me wrong... I like a 400 foot yank to right fielder as much as the next guy but sometimes... you got to have that other way club in your bag.   

Its almost like Kep and Julien went to BP traded some knowledge. and like the game H.O.R.S.E Kep had to change it up to keep up.  I love the look on pitchers faces when that oppotaco gets caught in the first couple rows of left field. So deflating 😆

[Twins33]

I lean keeping him because the OF depth is bad already and would be worse without him. That being said, if someone wants to way overpay then trade him. 

[mnfireman]

What changed? His health. After 2 years of battling lower body injuries and 2 early season trips to the IL, both for  lower body injuries, he came back healthy. He was able to drive the ball because he had his lower body healthy again. SSS alert; from June 1st until the end of the season, he slashed .283/.353/.514 (.867 OPS) with 18 HR and 52 RBI.

If the return is good, trade him. Otherwise he is a better option than what's out there in FA and the trade talks can be revisited in July.

[KBJ1]

Absolutely trade Kepler. Wallner is the same player at 1/10 the price

[RpR]

24 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Absolutely trade Kepler. Wallner is the same player at 1/10 the price

Wallner is 1/10 the player at any price.