Twins have the second highest odds in the AL to win the WS!

[Rik19753]

Now that the miserable playoff losing streak is in the rearview mirror, let's look ahead to the ultimate goal: winning the World Series.

According to Fangraphs, our Minnesota Twins have the second highest chance in the AL of winning the WS following the win over the Blue Jays. They have the Twins winning it all in 7.1% of their simulations, which is about 14 to 1 odds.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Here are the odds of each team making it to, and winning, the World Series.

Astros: 35.2% to win the AL, 17.1% to win WS

Twins: 17.7%, 7.1%

Rangers: 16.1%, 5.7%

Orioles: 16.7%, 5.5%

Rays: 8.5%, 3.6%

Blue Jays: 5.9%, 2.5%

Although the Twins have similar odds of making the WS as the Rangers and Orioles, they have much better odds of winning the WS. This means the projections think that the Twins are head and shoulders better than the Rangers and Orioles.

Despite the fact that the Twins face the Astros in the 2nd round, who the projections think are the clear favorites, the Twins have the second best odds of winning the AL, indicating that if they make it past the Astros the Twins will probably be favored against any team they will face in the ALCS.

All in all, I think the playoffs are shaping up very favorably for the Twins.

Getting to face the Astros in the Division Series as opposed to the Championship Series is good if you feel the Twins are the inferior team ( I do) because shorter series are more about luck.

Knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round is great because they are probably a better team than the Rangers or Orioles.

The Rays likely being knocked out in the 1st round is good because they are also probably a better team than the Rangers or Orioles. 

It's not hard to make the argument that the Rangers and Orioles are actually the two worst teams in the field from a team quality perspective, and they are the likely opposition in the ALCS.

I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but we've waited 19 years for this and I just couldn't resist :)

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Getting way ahead of yourself is part of the fun in being a fan. I'll play along. If the Twins were able to pull off the upset and beat Houston, they're going to the World Series.

[Nine of twelve]

52 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Getting way ahead of yourself is part of the fun in being a fan. I'll play along. If the Twins were able to pull off the upset and beat Houston, they're going to the World Series.

As part of the fun in being a fan I'll play along too: what makes you think that the Twins beating Houston would be an upset?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

15 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

As part of the fun in being a fan I'll play along too: what makes you think that the Twins beating Houston would be an upset?

Houston has the championship pedigree. Do I necessarily think it would be an upset? No. But the talking heads and media pundits would lose their minds if the Twins beat the Astros.

[MABB1959]

How are they better than the Orioles?  They had a .623 season in the toughest league with the Twins at .537 in the worst division.

[bighat]

42 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

How are they better than the Orioles?  They had a .623 season in the toughest league with the Twins at .537 in the worst division.

You could use that same argument with the Blue Jays.....

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, bighat said:

You could use that same argument with the Blue Jays.....

 

3 hours ago, bighat said:

You could use that same argument with the Blue Jays.....

They were not mentioned but they will be tough the next two games too.

[Rik19753]

15 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

How are they better than the Orioles?  They had a .623 season in the toughest league with the Twins at .537 in the worst division.

I didn't say the Twins are better than the Orioles. But the projections certainly think so, and it's not hard to see why.

To put it simply, the Orioles vastly overachieved. Their run differential is indicative of a 94-68 team rather than a 101-61 team (the Twins run differential amounts to a 93-69 record). Having a good bullpen is a nice way to overachieve because you can win close games, but it doesn't give you that big of an advantage.

Then, consider that the they actually overachieved when it comes to scoring runs. Their wOBA (which weighs all events like walks, singles, doubles, etc. based on their expected run values) is 14th in the league (the Twins are 7th), yet they've scored the 7th most runs. You can point to good baserunning or clutch hitting for the discrepancy, but again, baserunning can only do you so much and clutch hitting isn't a repeatable skill. 

Looking at the pitching side, you can't dispute that their relief pitching is top notch, but with Felix Bautista out they suddenly look a lot more vulnerable. I don't know if you would take them over the Twins relief corps right now.

But the biggest problem is their starting pitching. They are slated to run out Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their main starters, and possibly Kyle Gibson as their 4th. Starting with Bradish, his 2.83 ERA is certainly sparkly, but the underlying numbers point to him being an-above average starter and certainly not an ace. Grayson Rodriguez had a nice 2nd half, but his seasonal ERA of 4.35 is probably closer to the talent level that he is at currently. Kremer has a 4.12 ERA but a hideous 4.93 xERA, which is due to the fact that he gives up a lot of hard contact. His K% and BB% are not nearly good enough to mask that hard contact.

Even if you don't think the Twins are better than the Orioles, can you really say with confidence, without pointing to their record, that they are superior to the Twins? 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

12 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

How are they better than the Orioles?  They had a .623 season in the toughest league with the Twins at .537 in the worst division.

Ooooh, I am so scared of an O's team without Felix Bautista. The mighty playoff aces Dean Kremer and Kyle Gibson strike fear into the hearts of every hitter in major-league baseball. The rookie Grayson Rodriguez is exactly as good as every media analyst has been telling me, and it completely wise to trust him with a #2 spot in a playoff rotation.

That Rangers lineup is really scary and I am sure that they are looking to tee-off on a sub-par Orioles staff

[MABB1959]

13 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

Even if you don't think the Twins are better than the Orioles, can you really say with confidence, without pointing to their record, that they are superior to the Twins? 

I really didn't know or think the Twins were better.  So the Orioles overachieved regular season and the Twins underachieved.  Thanks for your explanation

[Nine of twelve]

I didn't take the time to check the records of the other three teams against each other, but the Twins were a combined 11-9 against the remaining AL teams. One should also consider that our pitchers have been doing well leading up to the postseason. I won't say we are favorites but I would not say we are underdogs.

[2wins87]

Odds after the WC round with the NL (Pennant/WS):

1. Braves: 40.1%/26.9%
2. Astros: 35.2%/16.9%
3. Dodgers: 25.1%/13.6%
4. Phillies: 20.9%/11.3%
5. Twins: 24.4%/10.5%
6. Rangers: 22.9%/8.7%
7. DBacks: 13.9%/6.3%
8. Orioles 17.5%/5.7%

That's not bad odds for the Twins.  The projections clearly see the pitching for the Astros and Twins outclassing the Rangers and Orioles.

The NL is obviously more top heavy with the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies all with WS odds better than half of their Pennant odds, so favored to win against any AL opponent.

I do think the AL was (and still is) very interesting this year with no one team really standing out above the others.  Houston has the highest odds, but I don't really see them standing out above the Twins or the other remaining teams, or even some eliminated teams like the Rays (who just played really terribly for two games) or Mariners whose pitching would have been a real problem for other teams in the postseason.

Apparently the Orioles fans who awoke to a finally competitive team this year have had a beef with Fangraphs all year, and they certainly have a beef with those projections.  I have to agree with the projections, that, while good, they overperformed in all sorts of ways this year.  Though at the same time I'm not confident that they aren't better than I think either. I don't think Bradish is an ace, but he pitched really well for a full season so he might be better than I think.  Rodriguez was really, really good in the second half, and he was considered a top prospect, so maybe he is becoming an ace.  With the front office people they've poached from the Astros among others, they probably are about as good as any other org at improving pitchers.  They could be a very tough and annoying opponent for a bunch of years to come now.