That's One Fine Looking Saints Team.. Why Don't the Twins Look Like That?

[TwinsDr2021]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The "Twins guy" has a .642 OPS in AAA. Lee is AHEAD of almost every other player in the draft. You can't act like the Twins are moving him too slowly.

Am I acting that way, or are you projecting something I didn't say?

[Mike Sixel]

I wasn't even talking about Lee .... Martin, though? Yes. 

Julien is only up because polanco got hurt. He and Wallner were both sent down after playing well, because they wanted veterans instead of better players. And, many here agree and just would rather play bad veterans than take a chance on younger players. 

[Trov]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wasn't even talking about Lee .... Martin, though? Yes. 

Julien is only up because polanco got hurt. He and Wallner were both sent down after playing well, because they wanted veterans instead of better players. And, many here agree and just would rather play bad veterans than take a chance on younger players. 

It is not about rather playing bad veterans over take a chance on young players, but roster moves have a ripple affect.  Lets say early in year we cut Gallo, Farmer, Polanco, a number of pen pitchers that are vets.  If the young guys produce great, if they do not, who do we have to turn to?  Even worse, what happens when they get hurt, as many players need even 10 days on IL from time to time.  If we cut all our vets, understanding we cannot send them to minors, then we are forced to bring up even younger guys, most likely not ready to play.  

You have to sometimes think more than one move ahead, and have backup plans.  Everyone wondered why we brought in MAT in off season, and assumed he would be 4th outfielder.  However, FO knew Buck was less likely to play CF.  If Buck could great, but we needed a backup plan because they did not believe Celistino was the option.  The fact that we have so many guys pushing the MLB roster is a good thing, and a sign of depth we have.  We did send Julien and Wallner down initially, but now they have forced they way back into lineup.  However, where would we be if we would have sent vets packing and either get hurt?  

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is not about rather playing bad veterans over take a chance on young players, but roster moves have a ripple affect.  Lets say early in year we cut Gallo, Farmer, Polanco, a number of pen pitchers that are vets.  If the young guys produce great, if they do not, who do we have to turn to?  Even worse, what happens when they get hurt, as many players need even 10 days on IL from time to time.  If we cut all our vets, understanding we cannot send them to minors, then we are forced to bring up even younger guys, most likely not ready to play.  

You have to sometimes think more than one move ahead, and have backup plans.  Everyone wondered why we brought in MAT in off season, and assumed he would be 4th outfielder.  However, FO knew Buck was less likely to play CF.  If Buck could great, but we needed a backup plan because they did not believe Celistino was the option.  The fact that we have so many guys pushing the MLB roster is a good thing, and a sign of depth we have.  We did send Julien and Wallner down initially, but now they have forced they way back into lineup.  However, where would we be if we would have sent vets packing and either get hurt?  

Fear of injury....that's why Gallo is on the roster still. By that logic, Julien should still be in the minors, just in case he gets hurt? At some point, you have to play your best players, like when you are about to make the playoffs and you have Gallo starting every day, and Solano, and MAT (who has been worse than Gallo since May). And Castro. None of those guys are going to help this team win playoff games. I'm not talking about the beginning of the year here.....it is August. 

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wasn't even talking about Lee .... Martin, though? Yes. 

Julien is only up because polanco got hurt. He and Wallner were both sent down after playing well, because they wanted veterans instead of better players. And, many here agree and just would rather play bad veterans than take a chance on younger players. 

They are paranoid about having depth.

[saviking]

I'm not proposing we do anything radical this year but next year we need a full on youth movement. Our prospect pipeline has been a long time coming but now it's here ..

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wasn't even talking about Lee .... Martin, though? Yes. 

Julien is only up because polanco got hurt. He and Wallner were both sent down after playing well, because they wanted veterans instead of better players. And, many here agree and just would rather play bad veterans than take a chance on younger players. 

I see it different. They both had work to do. Julien with the glove and Wallner with the strike outs. The AAA schedule with less travel and the weekly routine makes it much easier to do that work. The development time in AAA is critical. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I see it different. They both had work to do. Julien with the glove and Wallner with the strike outs. The AAA schedule with less travel and the weekly routine makes it much easier to do that work. The development time in AAA is critical. 

Julien spent, what, a couple weeks between assignments in AAA, and was called up when Polanco got hurt a second time, not because he forced his way onto the roster. 

[Cris E]

59 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They are paranoid about having depth.

It's a good paranoid based on a horrific 2022 experience. I am fine with having depth the way they built this team. Think of Mahle, Lewis, Buxton and the host of other pitchers who I can't bother to look up who missed so much of this year due to injury, and yet we have a decent looking roster most nights because they laid in so much foundation last winter.

But keeping a lot of dead weight around when it's clear the youth ARE producing and the elders are not is a separate and important issue.   Mickey Hatcher was popular but had to go to make the 87 team work. Gallo is liked in the club house, and he has decent days but bad months. I liked the idea of his signing all along, and I liked the early performance, but he's not doing good work right now and it was time for some hard choices at the end of July. Sometimes you just have to shake a guy's hand and send him on his way.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Julien spent, what, a couple weeks between assignments in AAA, and was called up when Polanco got hurt a second time, not because he forced his way onto the roster. 

He had a month between major league games. I am sure he would have benefitted from more time to work on second base but the Twins didn’t have that luxury. I am sure he put that time to use and is better for it now with that hard work ethic that Baldelli has referenced in his postgame.

I really value that growth and development time and for players like Julien that list 2020 it is critical. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He had a month between major league games. I am sure he would have benefitted from more time to work on second base but the Twins didn’t have that luxury. I am sure he put that time to use and is better for it now with that hard work ethic that Baldelli has referenced in his postgame.

I really value that growth and development time and for players like Julien that list 2020 it is critical. 

I would say he should have been up at the end of last year, same with Wallner and Miranda the year before and others this year, and maybe they wouldn't have had to sign Gallo and could have spent that money on something else. The idea that a 24 year old player learns much of anything by going to the minors for anything but bad play is crazy talk. Julien didn't become a better second baseman in those 20 or so games in AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

Cardinals calling up a AAA prospect with an OPS under .900....but none of the guys in St. Paul should come up to replace MAT or Gallo......oh, and that prospect is all of 21 years old. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cardinals calling up a AAA prospect with an OPS under .900....but none of the guys in St. Paul should come up to replace MAT or Gallo......oh, and that prospect is all of 21 years old. 

While I agree with the general idea that the Twins are way too slow at moving on from vets, I'm not sure this is a great comp. The Cards are playing completely for 2024 at this point. It's much more of an example of what the Twins should've done the last couple years. And Winn is an elite glove at SS so his OPS isn't as much of a factor as someone like Williams who is a bat only corner player. The Twins and Cards have very different goals for the rest of 2023 so I don't think this is a great comp to MAT or Gallo with the Twins.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I agree with the general idea that the Twins are way too slow at moving on from vets, I'm not sure this is a great comp. The Cards are playing completely for 2024 at this point. It's much more of an example of what the Twins should've done the last couple years. And Winn is an elite glove at SS so his OPS isn't as much of a factor as someone like Williams who is a bat only corner player. The Twins and Cards have very different goals for the rest of 2023 so I don't think this is a great comp to MAT or Gallo with the Twins.

I think that is kind of the point, because they are slow calling people up (see my post above) they have ended up with a bunch of mid 20 and older prospects that they really don't know much about and because they are not dumb, they know you have to bring in some vets because if those young guys fail, they are kind of f'ed. If they would have brought up Wallner and Julien last year, it would haven't been hard to call up a Keirsey, Prato, Severino or even Williams. but since they spent time this year figuring out Larnach, Miranda, Wallner and Julien those guys haven't yet got a chance, and next year they will be 27, 26, 24 and 27.

Next year they will still be feeling Wallner, Julien, Larnach (possibly), Miranda, and to a lesser extent Lewis and Ak, Again doesn't leave much of an opportunity for "real" young prospects, when they are also blocked by old prospects.

One could argue the same with the pitching staff.  Some people think Varland needs more time in the minors he turns 26 in December.

another thing I can't understand why the same people that feel the minor league guys need more time are saying Cavaco is a bust, He just turned 22, he has at least 2 years and in some cases up to 4 to be the same age as all the other prospects?

[chpettit19]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think that is kind of the point, because they are slow calling people up (see my post above) they have ended up with a bunch of mid 20 and older prospects that they really don't know much about and because they are not dumb, they know you have to bring in some vets because if those young guys fail, they are kind of f'ed. If they would have brought up Wallner and Julien last year, it would haven't been hard to call up a Keirsey, Prato, Severino or even Williams. but since they spent time this year figuring out Larnach, Miranda, Wallner and Julien those guys haven't yet got a chance, and next year they will be 27, 26, 24 and 27.

Next year they will still be feeling Wallner, Julien, Larnach (possibly), Miranda, and to a lesser extent Lewis and Ak, Again doesn't leave much of an opportunity for "real" young prospects, when they are also blocked by old prospects.

One could argue the same with the pitching staff.  Some people think Varland needs more time in the minors he turns 26 in December.

another thing I can't understand why the same people that feel the minor league guys need more time are saying Cavaco is a bust, He just turned 22, he has at least 2 years and in some cases up to 4 to be the same age as all the other prospects?

Yeah, that's why I said they should've been operating like the Cards the last 2 years instead of doing things like keeping Andrelton Simmons around all season. But Mike compared it to MAT and Gallo this year. Now I'm as on the "dump Gallo" bandwagon as anyone, but that isn't the same as what the Cards are doing. The 2023 Twins and 2023 Cards aren't a good comp. The 2021 and 2022 Twins and the 2023 Cards are a good comp.

Masyn Winn is also a top 50 prospect. Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, and Julien weren't. Keirsey, Prato, Severino, and Williams definitely aren't. Those just aren't good comps.

Like I said, I agree with the overall idea that the Twins are too slow to move on from vets, and I wish they'd be much better at using lost seasons as testing grounds/preparation for the next season, but Masyn Winn is not a good comp for the Twins prospects just like the 2023 Cards aren't a good comp for the 2023 Twins.

The Twins did call up Wallner in 2022. They just didn't trust him for 2023. They've given Larnach playing time in 3 straight years now. They handed Miranda the 3B job this year. They've given Lewis and Kirilloff all the time we could expect. Those aren't good examples of them not giving young guys chances. It's not like they haven't called anyone up ever. Jeffers debuted 2 years after he was drafted. The Cards aren't going to be sold on Masyn Winn from his MLB time in 2023. They may just be more willing to roll with a young guy and take their chances than the Twins, but they're not getting enough data in a month and a half to be convinced he's a finished product or anything.

The star prospects the Twins have had recently (Kirilloff and Lewis) weren't held back. If you're going to use Masyn Winn as your comp then those are the guys we should be comparing him to. They were both given shots in their early 20s. That's with injuries and 2020 being a large factor in their careers at that point as well. These other guys we're talking about (especially the guys in AAA now hoping for debuts) are nowhere near the type of prospects Winn, Kirilloff, or Lewis are/were. Would I like to see some of them get chances, especially if it means dropping Gallo? 100%. But they aren't in AAA in their mid-20s because the Twins held them back. Those guys have never given anyone reason to think they're major leaguers before this year. So, as my point with that post was, the 2023 Cards are not a good comp for the 2023 Twins, and Masyn Winn is not a good comp for the current AAA guys we're looking at.

[Cris E]

Eh, maybe.  In 2022 they called up Celestino a couple years early and learned that of course he wasn't ready yet. Larnach and Kirriloff both would have gotten solid looks too but they were hurt. Miranda was ready and then came to camp this spring and tore up his shoulder. This year Prato hit .170 in AA before moving to AAA and hitting twice that, so pardon me if I want to see a little more. Keirsey and Severino have only had a couple weeks at AAA and they are not setting the world alight.   I get that we're slooow to move guys up sometimes (ie why were the moves to AAA this late in the summer) but the moves to the majors, at least this year, are largely driven by winning rather than development, and that's appropriate.  If we pull away a bit this month maybe they can do more showcasing and learn some stuff while resting the starters.

[RpR]

30 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Next year they will still be feeling Wallner, Julien, Larnach (possibly), Miranda, and to a lesser extent Lewis and Ak, Again doesn't leave much of an opportunity for "real" young prospects, when they are also blocked by old prospects.

The ONLY thing that blocks them outright lack of ability, simple as that!

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Eh, maybe.  In 2022 they called up Celestino a couple years early and learned that of course he wasn't ready yet. Larnach and Kirriloff both would have gotten solid looks too but they were hurt. Miranda was ready and then came to camp this spring and tore up his shoulder. This year Prato hit .170 in AA before moving to AAA and hitting twice that, so pardon me if I want to see a little more. Keirsey and Severino have only had a couple weeks at AAA and they are not setting the world alight.   I get that we're slooow to move guys up sometimes (ie why were the moves to AAA this late in the summer) but the moves to the majors, at least this year, are largely driven by winning rather than development, and that's appropriate.  If we pull away a bit this month maybe they can do more showcasing and learn some stuff while resting the starters.

To be honest I am not complaining about not bringing up Prato, Keirsey and Severino, to me they aren't really prospects and more likely than not won't have much of if any a MLB career (I wish them well), I am more saying some people think they are a solution to a Twins need, and my point really is if they were they should have been brought up.

[Twins33]

I’d rather Keirsey or Martin be the starting CF instead of MAT and his .260s OBP.