Miguel Sano AA Promotion

[gil4]

Are you not familiar with xFIP? Shouldn't that be driving all pitching promotion decisions?

That and whether or not the guy's girlfriend is hot.

[Mike Sixel]

That and whether or not the guy's girlfriend is hot.

 

Or the color of his hair.

[chopper0080]

If I am the Twins (which is not the case as my opinions seem to differ significantly from theirs) I look to move the following after the All Star game in June.

 

DJ Braxendale from Hi-A to AA

Miguel Sano from Hi-A to AA

Angel Morales from Hi-A to AA

Kenny Vargas from Hi-A to AA

Byron Buxton from Lo-A to AA

 

I believe these 5 players have demonstrated all they need to at their respective levels and the Twins need to move them up so they can evaluate them against the major league level talent that lives in the AA level. Some may seem this is too agressive for Buxton, but in my mind the difference between Low-A and High-A isn't that great. Buxton has shown he can dominate at Low-A, so in order to get more info on him, move him to AA. He will be protected by Sano, Vargas and Ortiz so he won't have all of the presure on him to produce, and will force teams to ptich to him. Eddie Rosario should also be an option, but he seems to be dealing with "other" issues at this time.

 

Adam Walker from Low-A to Hi-A.

 

I might move Harrison up as well, but I am not sure yet. I believe Walker really deserves a move up and it would provide the Twins with enough info to determine if he can jump to AA next year or if he would need more time at Hi-A.

 

Not a ton of pitcher movement from me because it is hard for me to determine who really deserves it. Sometimes guys with poor mechanics and plus stuff can get by at certain levels despite having flaws which will cause them to struggle at the next level. I am not confident with the rest of the pitchers to determine if they qualify. Jose Berrios would probably be my next pitcher to move up, but I am sure more time at Low-A won't hurt him this season. We will see.

[roger]

Twins Fan From Afar, I have an unrelated question. This spring we heard that Danny Santana was a gifted defensive shortstop. In his first third of a season at AA, he has 17 errors. I assume you have seen him play. Was the talk this spring all hype? Or is he better than indicated when looking strictly at errors? Thanks!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Sometimes errors come due to extreme range. I seem to remember Jose Reyes getting a lot more errors, but that had a lot to do with him knocking down hits that no other SS could get to.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Sometimes errors come due to extreme range. I seem to remember Jose Reyes getting a lot more errors, but that had a lot to do with him knocking down hits that no other SS could get to.

 

The easiest way to not make an error is to not get to the ball. As long as the errors aren't multi-base errors, I have no problem with him making "errors" on balls that would have been clean hits against any other SS.

[Steve Lein]

Interesting note in Baseball America's Hot Sheet today, where Sano made the "In The Team Photo" section (Kyle Gibson was #3 for his CG SO):

 

Miguel Sano, 3b, Twins: El Rey had another good week, crushing seven extra-base hits for high Class A Fort Myers, including three home runs. He even stole three bases in three tries, giving him seven for the season. For all the skepticism about Sano’s defense at third, scouts who have seen him this year don’t see him moving any time soon. It’s worth noting that Sano leads all Florida State League third basemen in total chances, putouts and assists and is third among FSL third basemen in range factor.

 

("El Rey" translates to "The King" for those curious - Not one I've heard before for him, but I like the nickname)

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Twins Fan From Afar, I have an unrelated question. This spring we heard that Danny Santana was a gifted defensive shortstop. In his first third of a season at AA, he has 17 errors. I assume you have seen him play. Was the talk this spring all hype? Or is he better than indicated when looking strictly at errors? Thanks!

 

I've seen Danny Santana play 5 or so games, and have not been impressed with the defense. The errors I witnessed were a grounder he didn't get to that only required 2-3 feet of movement, and a flip to second to start a double play that ended up in centerfield. Also I get nervous on his throws to first.

 

So, small sample size, but the glove hasn't impressed me. One positive thing, though, is that he does have a great arm.

[gunnarthor]

Alex Meyer has the 2nd best FIP in the Eastern League (basically tied with Kevin Guasman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight). No reason to hold him back if spots open up above him.

 

Does anyone know if FIP calculations in the minor league levels valid or is it a stat that works best at the ML level where there isn't as much difference in competition? The reason I ask is Hendriks has had some pretty nice AAA FIPs the last few years.

[kab21]

Does anyone know if FIP calculations in the minor league levels valid or is it a stat that works best at the ML level where there isn't as much difference in competition? The reason I ask is Hendriks has had some pretty nice AAA FIPs the last few years.

 

FIP in the minors is just as good as FIP in the majors. It's not a perfect measure especially since it doesn't normalize HR/FB%. Liam Hendriks has had really good HR/9 rates in the minors so that helps his great FIP's. One reason for Liam's good HR rates is that he's a GB pitcher but they shouldn't be that good. In addition he has had great K:BB rates. If you look at the equation below then he was basically elite since he controlled the 3 major parts of the equation. To be fair to FIP, Liam was also an elite minor leaguer according to ERA also. What is Hendriks problem? He has fringy stuff in the strike zone (low BB's) and so far it has been hit hard at the MiLB level.

 

How does this relate to Meyer? Meyer has a phenomenal K rate although his BB rate is not that great while his HR/9 rate is pretty low. He does get a lot of GB's so that partly explains it but he's probably a little lucky with HR's. The big difference between Meyer's great FIP's and Liam's great FIP's is that Meyer has amazing stuff that shouldn't get smacked around in the majors. The only thing that will hold Meyer back are the control issues that he struggles with. I don't think there should be any rush to get Meyer to the majors this season based on these control issues.

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

FIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

[nicksaviking]

Miguel Sano, 3b, Twins: El Rey had another good week, crushing seven extra-base hits for high Class A Fort Myers, including three home runs. He even stole three bases in three tries, giving him seven for the season. For all the skepticism about Sano’s defense at third, scouts who have seen him this year don’t see him moving any time soon. It’s worth noting that Sano leads all Florida State League third basemen in total chances, putouts and assists and is third among FSL third basemen in range factor.

 

 

This is encouraging for Sano. Of course it's discouraging for the pitching staff. I notice like the MLB club, this team is also a bottom feeder K/9 team. Only Baxendale has a K/9 +5.6 as a starter and his 7.5 K/9 is the only less-than encouraging thing about him this year.

[bird]

Now you assume the Twins FO knows something about music?

 

That's funny. They probably know less about music than we do about baseball talent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is encouraging for Sano. Of course it's discouraging for the pitching staff. I notice like the MLB club, this team is also a bottom feeder K/9 team. Only Baxendale has a K/9 +5.6 as a starter and his 7.5 K/9 is the only less-than encouraging thing about him this year.

Yeah, those defensive stats are very opportunity-dependent.

 

Also, of the 12 teams in the Florida State League, it looks like only about 7 of them have had a regular third baseman all season. And I think Sano leads those in games played too, so he should be expected to fare well in counting stats like chances, putouts, and assists.

[fairweather]

Next stop Cooperstown!